Inverted Simulations Demonstrating Strong Ecological Fallacies in Cohort Studies

We start with a description of the statistical inferential framework and the duality between observed data and the true state of nature that underlies it. We demonstrate here that the usual testing of dueling hypotheses and the acceptance of one and the rejection of the other is a framework which can often be faulty when such inferences are applied to individual subjects. This follows from noting that the statistical inferential framework is predominantly based on conclusions drawn for aggregates and noting that what is true in the aggregate frequently does not hold for individuals, an ecological fallacy. Such a fallacy is usually seen as problematic when each data record represents aggregate statistics for counties or districts and not data for individuals. Here we demonstrate strong ecological fallacies even when using subject data. Inverted simulations, of trials rightly sized to detect meaningful differences, yielding a statistically significant p-value of 0.000001 （1 in a million） and associated with clinically meaningful differences between a hypothetical new therapy and a standard therapy, had a proportion of instances of subjects with standard therapy effect better than new therapy effects close to 30%. A ―winner take all‖ choice between two hypotheses may not be supported by statistically significant differences based on stochastic data. We also argue the incorrectness across many individuals of other summaries such as correlations, density estimates, standard deviations and predictions based on machine learning models. Despite artifacts we support the use of prospective clinical trials and careful unbiased model building as necessary first steps. In health care, high touch personalized care based on patient level data will remain relevant even as we adopt more high tech data-intensive personalized therapeutic strategies based on aggregates.

Emission Theory with Re-Emission of Photons by the Medium—Instead of Special Relativity

Instead of relying on the erroneous principles of Special Relativity, this paper proposes a new theory based on the emission of photons by a source and their re-emission by a transparent medium. Through over 60 articles, we have demonstrated that Special Relativity is based on optical experiments and observations that have been incorrectly explained by the theory of a non-existent ether. Our findings show that all known experiments can be explained using classical concepts of space and time, thereby refuting the theory of relativity. This article also addresses the fallacy of the widely accepted etheric Doppler effects and its significant role in the history of science.

Evaluation of Reported Statistical Inferences

Someone or the other is always pointing to a published study to justify a point of view or the need for a change in what we do or how we live. There are so many such studies, many reported in top-notch journals, reporting results inconsistent across and often inconsistent within. It is in the interest of increasing the credibility of science, and to safeguard the general public living with its overt and covert influence, to filter good science from bad. Some inferences are good, even when counter-intuitive or seemingly inconsistent, and are likely to withstand scrutiny and some others may represent marginal effects in the aggregate not entirely useful for individual choices or decisions, and are often non-reproducible. The New York Times featured an article in August 2018 debunking some of the reported studies supporting testing for Vitamin D deficiencies and the recommendation of large supplemental doses of Vitamin D. Some of these Vitamin D claims, among other claims, were reported as not holding up on replication in controlled trials [1]. We have noted in Ref. [2] that we need to be wary as individuals about reported signals detected in studies using stochastic data, even when these aggregate signals are of a large magnitude. We demonstrated discordance rates of 30% or higher between subject level assessments of effect and the conclusion drawn in the aggregate. Here we will provide a computation of this discordant proportion as well as post-hoc assessments of aggregate inferences, with emphasis on evaluating studies with time-to-event endpoints such as those in cancer trials. Similar evaluations for continuous, binomial data and correlations are also provided. We also discuss the use of response thresholds.

Review on Dating Methods:Numerical Dating in the Quaternary Geology of High Asia

Over the past few years, OSL and TCN datings of glacial material from High Asia have come into fashion. To this day, however, these techniques do not permit safe calibration. The intensity of the cosmic ray flux is being modulated by the solar and terrestrial magnetic fields and their secular fluctuations in the past. So far, these variations cannot be converted into the respective local TCN production rates for High Asia. We have reason to believe that the ages that are being calculated despite these uneertainties are generally overestimated. This assessment is supported by eonventional radiocarbon dates and above＂ all by the glacial chronology developed independently on the basis of the Quaternary geological method. The strongly emerging evidence for a much more extensive LGM glaciation of High Asia is, however, either being ignored or rejected by many authors, solely on the basis of the above-mentioned uncalibrated datings. This self-conceit based on the ＂dating fallacy＂, as we call it, should be avoided since it goes decidedly against the standards of the scientific method established in Quaternary geology and makes a fundamental scientific discussion impossible.

基于语料库自主学习篇章中的英语词汇——以Love is a Fallacy一文为例

科学技术的发展使得利用电子资料库自主学习英语词汇成为可能。文章以经典外文范本Love is a Fallacy中的词汇为分析对象,从网络语料库BNC(British National Corpus)中提取所有包含关键词或结构的语句,对检索结果进行结构对比和词语分析。从词频统计、词义掌握、辨析同义、词语搭配四个方面论证这一基于语料库自主学习过程的可行性和实用性。

Antidiabetic fallacy of Vernonia amygdalina(bitter leaves) in human diabetes

Objective:Aim of present study is to scientifically,verify the antidiabetic activity/potency of Vernonia amygdalina in human diabetes.Methods:A search was made at Nnewi,South - East Nigeria for known diabetes who use Vernonia amygdalina either as their sole or supplementary antidiabetic.A total of ten volunteers comprising, eight females and two males were recruited.They were all of age range of 36-50 and average weight of 78 kg and suffering from non - insulin form of diabetes.The purpose of the study was explained to them and their consent obtained.They were asked not to take any other antidiabetic outside Vernonia amygdalina throughout the four weeks study period.There was however,no form of restrictions to their choice of diet or life style. They were requested to abstain from any drugs a week prior to commencement of study.Their prescriber’s dosage range was followed and minimum daily dose of 210 mL(approximately 220 mg of dry extract) was administered in Week-1,followed by daily dose of 420 mL(440 mg) in Week-2.In Week-3 they received 630 mL (660 mg) daily dose and in Week-4,they received daily dose of 840 mL(880 mg).Their fasting blood sugar were estimated pre-crude drug administration and on weekly basis for the four week study period.Their weekly weights were measured to check for possible weight gain or loss.Results were subjected to statistical analysis and Students T-Test was used to calculate P-value.P-value≤0.05 were considered significant.Results:It was observed that all the volunteers in the study group were taking Vernonia amygdalina only as supplementary. Two volunteers dropped out of the study at the end of Week-3 leaving us with 8 in Week-4.There was no significant bodyweight change within the four week study.The starting mean fasting blood sugar which was 133.3 mg/dL(7.41 mmol/L) rose to 136.6 mg/dL(7.59 mmol/L) in Week-1,to 149.5 mg/dL(8.31 mmol/L) in Week-2 and to 166.5 mg/dL(9.30 mmol/L) in Week-3.Week-4 had us left with 8 volunteers with a mean of 190.6 mg/dL(10.59 mmol/L).There was significant differences in increase in sugar levels between the pre-crade extract administration and treatment period with Vernonia amygdalina(P≤0.05 for Week-1,Ps?0.02 for Week-2,P^0.01 for Week-3 and PssO.001 for Week-4).Conclusion:Claims of antidiabetic efficacy of Vernonia amygdalina in human diabetes are scientifically non verifiable based on our work hence these claims are false.We also feel bold to state that we could not demonstrate any antidiabetic activity of Vernonia amygdalina in human subjects.We recommend that NAFDAC and all relevant agencies must sit up and control all forms advertorial on Medicinal plants until such are well studied and proven.

The Fallacy of Using Chiral Shift Reagents to Differentiate d，l and meso Isomers

A d,I mixture (R-R and S-S) can be resolved into the d and the I enantiomers. while the mesoisomer (R-S, identical with S-R) cannot be physically separated. This fact has occasionally been 'extrapolated' to differentiate d,l and meso isomers with a chiral shift reagent where the meso isomer is presumed not to show any signal 'doubling' during the (usually) downfield shift. This assumption hasbeen shown to be incorrect by the behavior of a meso molecule which does give signal 'doubling'.

The“Strong Nationalism”Fallacy

Strong nationalism has now become a buzzword in Western press or academiccomments on China and also an important argument for the“China threat”. SomeWestern scholars assert that rising Chinese nationalism will lead to external expan-sion and hegemonism. Not a few Western scholars have challenged this

Moral Hyperbole： Reflections on Moral Genealogy

My goal in this paper is to respond to the objection that naturalistic accounts of morality miss the thicker meaning with which we normally imbue ethics. I concur. This should lead us to doubt our thicker concepts, however, not doubt moral genealogy. Our thicker conceptions are hyperbolic, at best. The underlying algorithm of morality is the evolutionarily stable strategy： conditional cooperation. The content of such agreements can vary, however, and that is where moral hyperbole resides. Still, we like to distinguish good hyperbole from bad hyperbole, but the only standard for such appraisal is whether the hyperbole is consistent with the social glue of evolutionary dynamics.

Character Analysis for Love Is a Fallacy from the Perspectives of Speech Act Theory and Cooperative Principle

Love Is a Fallacy is a great work of Max Shulman, one of the America's most famous humorists. Literary pragmatics,an interdiscipline between literature and pragmatics, is concerned with the examples in which pragmatics is combined with linguistic and literary methods. Speech Act Theory, initiated by John Austin and developed by Paul Grice, has been employed in literary pragmatics. This paper aims to explore the characterization of the three roles in Love Is a Fallacy in the light of literary pragmatics. By delving into the realization of speech act and the flouting of the maxims of Cooperative Principle, the establishment process of characters can be better demonstrated.

The Gambler's Fallacy

There is a question concerned on the Law of Large Numbers and the Gambler's Fallacy as related to baseball player batting averages. A player has a lifetime batting average of 0.300,but currently batting is 0.100 after 100 attempts,shuld we expect that the

＂Confucian Cultural Fallacy＂ in the 20th Century Chinese Enlightenment Movement

The 20th century witnessed a strong cultural enlightenment movement in China, starting with the industrialization movement in the late 19th century Qing dynasty （1616-1912） and continuing in the May Fourth movement in 1919. The cultural enlightenment movement was strongly influenced by Western ideas such as democracy and the primacy of science. The Chinese modern cultural enlightenment can be compared with the European enlightenment that began with the Renaissance. One typical characteristic of this Chinese enlightenment that I wish to emphasize is the determining function of ideas and cultures, especially in light of the many criticisms of traditional Confucianism by intellectuals who blamed it for all the failures of Westernization in the 20th century. This is what I call the ＂Confucian Cultural Fallacy.＂ This fallacy has influenced many famous intellectuals, such as Tu Wei-ming. In this paper, I set out to analyze how this fallacy influenced Tu in two of his major arguments： the third stage of the Confucian revival movement, and the idea of ＂cultural China.＂ Throughout my analysis of different versions of the Confucian cultural fallacy in modern China, I also discuss how best to understand the Chinese cultural enlightenment movement in relation to Western Enlightenment movements.

Heideggefs Conception of Being-with （Mitsein） and His Simple Designation of Social and Political Reality in the Black Notebooks

Despite Heidegger insists that Being and Time cannot be read as a kind of existential philosophy, such interpretation still holds in some aspect, for in it, the main content is a special kind of phenomenology of life, even be called repeatedly as the foundation of the ontology of Being in general. The project of establishing an ontology of Being in general was ultimately never carried out. What Heidegger provides in Being and time is nothing but a phenomenology of life. It is peculiar that love and friendship as an important element of life is deliberately ignored. Such a deficiency of Heidegger, namely lacking love and friendship in fundamental ontology of Dasein, is probably the reason for his political fallacy during the II-World-War, notorious political mistake in his recent published Black Notebooks.