Assessing Suitability of Irrigation Scheduling Decision Support Systems for Lowland Rice Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa—A Review

Irrigation in lowland rice production systems in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is mainly based on traditional surface irrigation methods with continuous flooding practices. This irrigation method ends up using a lot more water that would have otherwise been used to open more land and be used in other water-requiring sectors. Various studies suggest Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) as an alternative practice for water management that reduces water use without significantly affecting yield. However, this practice has not been well adopted by the farmers despite its significant benefits of reduced total water use. Improving the adoption of AWD using irrigation Decision Support Systems (DSSs) helps the farmer on two fronts;to know “how much water to apply” and “when to irrigate”, which is very critical in maximizing productivity. This paper reviews the applicability of DSSs using AWD in lowland rice production systems in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Analysis on Irrational Decision Making of Tobacco Family Farmers from the Perspective of Optimal Scale of Efficiency

The larger the difference between the willingness scale of tobacco family farmers and the optimal scale of efficiency,the greater the degree of irrationality,and the higher the decision making risk.With the aid of DEA model,this study calculated the optimal scale of efficiency of Guiyang tobacco family farms.Using the ratio of willingness scale and efficiency optimal scale,it measured the degree of irrationality of family farmers.In addition,with the help of multiple linear regression model,it explained the irrational decision making mechanism of family farmers.Finally,it made a portrait of farmers who tend to make irrational decisions,to find specific farmers and guide them in their production and operation,reduce the risk of planting scale decision making and stabilize the sustainable development of the tobacco industry.

Intelligent Decision Support System for Bank Loans Risk Classification

Intelligent Decision Support System (IISS) for Bank Loans Risk Classification (BLRC), based on the way of integration Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Expert System (ES), is proposed. According to the feature of BLRC, the key financial and non-financial factors are analyzed. Meanwhile, ES and Model Base (MB) which contain ANN are designed . The general framework,interaction and integration of the system are given. In addition, how the system realizes BLRC is elucidated in detail.

Problems in Development of Micro-credit Loans to Farmers in China and Countermeasures

There are problems of inadequate natural endowment and weak stamina in the development of micro-credit loans to farmers in China. Specifically,existing problems include narrow profit space,serious non-agricultural trend of funds,high dependence on government support,short life cycle,and constantly increasing operating risks. These problems are related to endogenous drawback in design,defect in operating procedure,lagging in relevant policies and measures,and vacancy in risk compensation mechanism.

Information on Financial Statements for Loan Decision-Making of Commercial Banks in Vietnam

Financial statements （FS） are tools which provide information to users for making business decisions. Among the organizations, banks are the firms which conducted and did business with risks. In particular, commercial banks continue to play a dominant role in the whole system, and local commercial banks still have an edge in its widespread network across the country over foreign banks. This article is going to present the survey which clarifies the role of FS in commercial banks＇ loan decisions in Vietnam. Moreover, this paper also discusses FS＇s quality currently, thereby making suggestions for enterprises to enhance the usefulness of accounting information in borrowing activities. This paper has taken performance with 74 official employees in commercial banks in Vietnam. The results indicated the qualitative characteristics of banks when disclosing the financial statements. This article also gave the six oriented solutions to improvement of the loan decision-making by banks.

Farmers’Character and Behavior of Fertilizer Application-Evidence from a Survey of Xinxiang County,Henan Province,China

Agricultural chemical use has caused a public concern over environmental issue while decisions about applying chemicals are made by individual farmers. The critical decision-making role of farmers relative to agricultural chemical use creates a need for accurate information on their perceptions of various chemical-related hazards and the factors that may influence such judgments. Based on data collected from 177 land operators at Xinxiang County in Henan Province of China, an empirical analysis is conducted to examine the relationship between farmers＇ character and the behavior of fertilizer application. Study findings reveal that： the characteristics of household head and household, and the nature of farming management positively affect the amount of fertilizers applied; information on fertilizers and the knowledge about environmental impact of fertilizer application have negative impacts by contrast. To formulate effective pollution control policies at the farm level, it is imperative for policy-makers to convey information to producers by demonstration projects, technical assistance, and education programs. Under a changed political environment, some combination of education and economic incentives could be lower cost and more effective tools for achieving desired environmental conservative goals.

Toward Modelling of Transformational Change Processes in Farm Decision-Making

In the coming decades, agricultural systems will have to adapt to tremendous challenges. Behavioral models have important potential to better understand and steer changes toward sustainability brought about by this context. Relying on a literature review, we distinguish incremental changes (extensions of what is already done) and transformational changes, which involve the reorientation of a considerable amount of farming activities. Transformational changes are particularly important in the context of global change. Existing integrated modelling frameworks based on behavioral theories are suited for incremental changes, but remain limited for transformational changes. Qualitative studies provide important insights on two key aspects of transformational changes, learning and social relations, but they have not been explicitly oriented toward computer modelling yet. Based on this literature and three seminal decision-making approaches, we propose a description of transformational change processes in farm decision-making, as a first step toward an implementation in agent-based models.

Land Use Change and Its Effect on Environment Based on Farmers’Behaviors: A Case Study in Agricultural Areas of Tibet, China

In the case study in Agricultural Area of Tibet, the process and characteristics of farmers' land use were surveyed by semi-structural interview questionnaire. By comparing the change of land covers and farmers' land decision in two periods, the spatial connection of them was obtained. And the relations among farmers' land decision, land use change and environment were examined by calculating emergy and value flow. The results show that: hunting the maximal profits is the primary aim of farmers' land decision; farmers' land decision is incompatible with sustainable land use presently; farmers' land decision and land cover can be embodied spatially by each other; the change of farmers' land decision can be monitored by observing the change of land cover, and the sustainability of farmers' land decision can be appraised by calculating emergy and value flow.

双重资金约束下考虑碳配额交易的供应链融资决策

构建由生产和减排双重资金约束的制造商和零售商组成的低碳供应链系统,针对银行借贷和提前支付两种融资模式,探究碳配额交易下制造商的融资决策问题,并分析了碳减排成本系数和碳交易价格对融资决策和供应链成员利润的影响.研究发现:当提前支付利率等于银行借贷利率时,无论是否考虑碳配额交易,提前支付融资总会给制造商带来较大利润,因此,提前支付是制造商的最优融资选择.当融资利率不等时,制造商融资方式会受到碳配额交易和碳减排成本系数的影响.碳减排成本系数增大时,融资规模、供应链成员利润均降低,而碳交易价格提高时,融资规模、制造商利润均增加.另外,碳配额交易会增加制造商利润,但会损害零售商利润.

“三农”领域高校智库建设现状及发展路径探析

“三农”领域高校智库在“三农”问题分析、决策拟定及政策工具弥补纠正等方面发挥着重要作用。为促进中国“三农”领域学术研究与智库研究有效对接,分析相关高校智库建设现状,总结其发展行为、运行机制、成果水平等方面及特点。研究发现,中国“三农”领域的高校智库建设主要依托一批专业化的研究团队和学术机构,在“三农”领域智库中数量占比最高且呈现快速增长趋势,并表现出强烈的地域性特征,在推动农业产业高质量发展方面发挥重要作用;但面临着服务乡村振兴的激励有限、协同合作能力有限、农业生产活动复杂性与农村调查公益性、成果实效水平不高和政策转化力度不够、资源及资金投入缺乏多元化与灵活性等困境。针对此,提出发挥涉农学科优势、推动成果评价制度改革、营造良好生态体系、畅通资政服务渠道、打造政产学研联盟共同体、构建“旋转门”机制、与新农村发展研究院协同建设等对策建议,以期对“三农”领域高校智库体系的建设与转型升级有所裨益,更好地满足新时期全面推进乡村振兴战略的智力需求。

基于IAD延伸决策模型的浙江农户休闲农业生产行为研究

基于制度分析与发展框架(IAD)延伸决策模型,利用浙江省2968户农户的调查数据,分析了户主特征、家庭状况、外部环境和市场服务、经营规则、改革认知等对农户休闲农业生产行为的影响。研究发现,外部环境和市场服务、经营规则、改革认知、户主特征是影响农户是否从事休闲农业生产的显著因素。进一步分析发现,农户早从事和晚从事休闲农业生产的显著性影响因素存在差异;早从事者比较关注休闲农业生产决策自由度和收入预期,晚从事者比较关注休闲农业设施完善程度和补贴获取便利性。因此,要因时因地实行差别化的引导对策,以推进休闲农业合理化和高质量发展。

适应性预期下大豆生产决策的影响研究——基于省级动态面板数据的实证检验

大豆播种面积波动变化是制约我国大豆自给水平提升的重要原因之一。文章结合国内大豆供需新形势,依据适应性预期理论,选取2012—2022年黑龙江和河南等10个大豆主产省份的大豆种植数据,构建现实预期和比较预期动态面板数据模型,探究农户适应预期下的种植行为,并实证分析各预期因素对我国大豆生产决策的影响。实证结果表明:(1)农户在种植决策上的理性表现为种植行为和种植结构比例选择的惯性,且往期种植面积、预期价格和预期单产的种植“惯性”作用在大豆种植决策中更为明显。(2)国产大豆亩均收益“低”、成本“高”的绝对和相对劣势凸显,同时大豆收益和成本的变化对其种植户的种植决策更具有影响力度。基于此,文章认为提高大豆单产、稳定市场价格、优化成本结构和创新优势产区大豆种植生产激励政策均可有效地促进大豆扩种,稳定大豆播种面积。

应对不信任问题的“公司+农户”供应链策略性决策研究

“公司+农户”是提高农产品供应链运作效率的一种重要模式,但是其中存在不信任问题,农户不会完全相信公司传递的市场信息。构建供应链博弈模型,研究应对农户不信任的公司信息传递和农户产能安排决策,分析农户不信任对供应链决策和农户利润等的影响。研究发现:(1)农户不信任促使公司策略性地传递市场信息,如果公司比农户看好市场行情会传递缩小的信息,反之,会传递夸大的信息;(2)农户会策略性地调节产能计划,如果公司比农户看好市场行情会扩大产能计划,反之,会缩小;(3)公司的策略性信息传递和农户的策略性产能调节能够应对农户不信任对公司利润和农户产能安排的不利影响,但是农户不信任必然会引起农户利润偏差,使农户实际所得利润总是低于预期利润。

抗战时期闽茶贷款运行机制及其实践分析

福建自古以来就是我国最重要的产茶省份之一,闽茶在近代中国的对外贸易中占据着重要地位。在20世纪30年代,曾经繁盛一时的闽茶出现了茶农转业、茶园荒芜、市场萎缩等全方面衰退的现象,更陷入了前所未有的资金困境。为复兴闽省茶业,福建省政府在抗战前夕便开始向茶农、茶商提供低息贷款,并在抗战时期逐步建立起了以联合茶号和农村合作社为主要贷放对象的发放机制。闽茶贷款在一定程度上改善了茶农、茶商的艰难处境,推动了茶业复兴,并有力地支援了抗战。但由于发放过程中存在着延误时限、挪用侵吞等问题,最终未能扭转闽茶衰退的局面。

农户信用贷款推广与县域内城乡收入差距——基于典型试验区的准自然实验研究

整村评级授信是中国农户信用贷款推广的主要模式,考察其对县域内城乡收入差距的影响,可以为共同富裕目标下的农村金融改革路径探索提供科学依据。基于信贷配给理论,本文论述了农户信用贷款推广对信贷供需双方的影响,从而揭示了其对县域内城乡收入差距的作用机理,并利用典型试验区102个县域的准自然实验进行实证检验。研究结果表明,农户信用贷款推广有助于缩小县域内城乡收入差距,且在一系列稳健性检验之后,该结论依然成立;通过增加农村信贷市场的供给和需求,农户信用贷款推广能够抑制村庄资金外流,从而缩小县域内城乡收入差距;在银行金融科技应用水平和第一产业占比较高的县域,农户信用贷款推广的效果较强。本研究为银行以整村评级授信的方式推广农户信用贷款、实现共同富裕提供了经验证据。

基于IRR计算方法的农户生产经营贷款策略研究——以峨边县为例

以乐山市峨边县农村金融机构农户生产经营贷款投资数据为基础,以贷款从事农业生产的农户为调研对象,运用净现值分析法(NPV)与内部收益率计算法(IRR)对农户生产经营情况展开分析,了解农户生产支出与运营利润情况。得出峨边县农户在生产经营投资中面临农户文化水平普遍不高、农村金融机构缺乏贷前调查与贷后管理、政府对农户生产经营贷款投资的指导与补贴缺位、农户生产经营贷利率过高等问题的结论,可为农户生产经营贷款的提前规划提供参考,以防范生产经营贷款投资风险,有效维护与完善农村金融市场,提振农户的生产经营贷款投资信心,激发农村市场的巨大潜力。

贷款市场报价利率(LPR)对企业投资决策的影响探究

本文深度剖析了贷款市场报价利率(LPR)的形成背景及其深远意义,详细解释了贷款市场报价利率(LPR)的概念,并分析了其在宏观经济、企业微观层面以及创新领域的深远影响,探讨了贷款市场报价利率(LPR)的变动与企业的投资决策之间的紧密联系。本文运用投资决策理论框架,结合实际案例,采用定量和定性研究方法,从宏观经济、企业微观层面以及LPR调整机制等多个角度,深入挖掘了贷款市场报价利率(LPR)对企业投资决策的潜在影响,并提出了一系列企业应对贷款市场报价利率(LPR)调整变化的策略。本文研究的成果不仅丰富了贷款市场报价利率(LPR)的理论研究体系,还为企业在实际操作中的决策提供了有益的参考和借鉴。

其他综合收益影响银行信用贷款决策吗?

以2012—2018年我国A股上市公司为样本,实证分析其他综合收益对银行信用贷款决策的影响。研究发现:其他综合收益与银行信用贷款比例显著正相关,且该结论在经过内生性问题处理以及一系列稳健性测试后依然成立;对内外部信息监督水平高的企业而言,其他综合收益对银行信用贷款决策的影响更明显;2014年其他综合收益列报制度改革带来了积极影响,使得其他综合收益的信贷决策有用性显著增强。作用机制检验结果表明,其他综合收益提升了企业信息透明度,进而对银行信用贷款决策产生了积极影响,即信息透明度在其他综合收益的信贷决策有用性影响中发挥中介作用。进一步研究表明,其他综合收益具有预测价值,可能是其他综合收益具有信贷有用性的重要原因。

基于时间偏好不一致的最优关系租金与银企估值

基于时间偏好不一致性的理论框架,构建了银企合作的关系贷款模型,模型中银行的最优停贷决策被视为一项实物期权。数值结果表明,时间偏好不一致性会导致代理人选择更低的违约门槛,但借款人的融资成本会更高。在项目估值方面,相比时间偏好一致情形,具有时间偏好不一致特征的银行和企业项目价值都大幅减少。此外,幼稚型和成熟型代理人对比结果显示,幼稚型代理人的错误信念能够抑制由于时间偏好不一致而导致的违约风险上升,并且能够降低最优关系租金,从而减轻具有财务约束的企业的融资成本。构建的贷款模型不仅丰富了银企关系型借贷的相关理论研究,而且指出在代理人具有时间偏好不一致的条件下最优关系租金(融资成本)更高,这从行为金融的认知偏差角度为中小企业融资难、融资贵的困境提供了新的解释。

认知能力对失地农民创业行为的影响研究

失地农民的生存和发展问题始终受到学界的广泛关注,而创业是解决这一问题的有效途径。本文使用2010—2018年CFPS三期混合截面数据,实证研究了认知能力对失地农民创业决策及其绩效的影响,结果表明,认知能力能够显著促进失地农户创业行为,信息效应、风险偏好效应和社会互动效应是认知能力对创业产生影响的重要机制。异质性分析发现,认知能力的提高对年轻家庭、中部地区家庭、城郊家庭和征地补偿款在25%—50%水平上的家庭的影响效应更大,对机会型自我雇佣的影响更大。因此,地方政府和失地农民应充分意识到认知能力的重要性,农户需提高认知能力水平,政府应制定恰当的失地农民创业政策,提升农户的创业水平和绩效,为失地农民解决生存发展问题铺好政策道路。