Minimal cut sets （or prime implicants： minimal combinations of basic event conditions leading to system failure） are important information for reliability/safety analysis and design. To obtain minimal cut sets for ...Minimal cut sets （or prime implicants： minimal combinations of basic event conditions leading to system failure） are important information for reliability/safety analysis and design. To obtain minimal cut sets for general non-coherent fault trees, including negative basic events or multi-valued basic events, a special procedure such as the consensus rule must be applied to the results obtained by logical operations for coherent fault trees, which will require more steps and time. This paper proposes a simple method for a non-coherent fault tree, whose top event is represented as an AND combination of monotonic sub-trees. A ＂monotonic＂ sub-tree means that it does not have both positive and negative representations for each basic event. It is proven that minimal cut sets can be obtained by a conventional method for coherent fault trees. An illustrative example of a simple event tree analysis shows the detail and characteristics of the proposed method.展开更多
On the base of study of the correlation of fault tree's main data-minimum cutsets, minimum path sets, non-intersect minimum cut sets and non-intersect minimum path sets,transformation method among main data are fo...On the base of study of the correlation of fault tree's main data-minimum cutsets, minimum path sets, non-intersect minimum cut sets and non-intersect minimum path sets,transformation method among main data are found, i.e. the transformation can be realized by theoperation of cut sets matrixes. This method provides anew way to reduce 'NP' difficulty and simplifyFTA.展开更多
To assess road traffic safety risk in civil aviation airports and develop effective accident prevention measures,this study proposed a risk assessment method based on accident tree and Bayesian network for airport air...To assess road traffic safety risk in civil aviation airports and develop effective accident prevention measures,this study proposed a risk assessment method based on accident tree and Bayesian network for airport aircraft activity areas.It identified influencing factors in the aircraft activity area from the perspectives of person-vehicle-road-environment-management and analyzed their relationships.The Bayesian network was utilized to determine initial probabilities for each influencing factor.Findings indicated a relatively high overall safety level in the airport's road traffic system.Accident trees were employed to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze common human-vehicle accident patterns.The initial probabilities obtained from the Bayesian network served as basic event probabilities in the accident tree to determine the occurrence probability of the top event.Taking a 4F airport in China as an example,accident cause analysis identified five important risk sources in human-vehicle accidents,including blind spots for special vehicles,illegal driving by drivers,pedestrians violating regulations,passengers entering restricted areas,and blind spots at intersections.Corresponding safety management measures were formulated.The study concluded that the integration of Bayesian networks and accident trees effectively determines accident probabilities and offers specific solutions,thus playing a crucial role in enhancing road traffic safety management within aviation airports.展开更多
A new fault tree analysis (FTA) computation method is put forth by using modularization technique in FTA with cut sets matrix, and can reduce NP (Nondeterministic polynomial) difficulty effectively. This software can ...A new fault tree analysis (FTA) computation method is put forth by using modularization technique in FTA with cut sets matrix, and can reduce NP (Nondeterministic polynomial) difficulty effectively. This software can run in IBM PC and DOS 3.0 and up. The method provides theoretical basis and computation tool for application of FTA technique in the common engineering system展开更多
This paper presents an approximate algorithm based on simulated annealing to achieve the maximum probability of the minimal cut sets for a fault tree. Near optimal minimal cut sets and important sequence of the basic ...This paper presents an approximate algorithm based on simulated annealing to achieve the maximum probability of the minimal cut sets for a fault tree. Near optimal minimal cut sets and important sequence of the basic events are also solved by the method. Computer simulations show that the algorithm performs very well.展开更多
文摘Minimal cut sets （or prime implicants： minimal combinations of basic event conditions leading to system failure） are important information for reliability/safety analysis and design. To obtain minimal cut sets for general non-coherent fault trees, including negative basic events or multi-valued basic events, a special procedure such as the consensus rule must be applied to the results obtained by logical operations for coherent fault trees, which will require more steps and time. This paper proposes a simple method for a non-coherent fault tree, whose top event is represented as an AND combination of monotonic sub-trees. A ＂monotonic＂ sub-tree means that it does not have both positive and negative representations for each basic event. It is proven that minimal cut sets can be obtained by a conventional method for coherent fault trees. An illustrative example of a simple event tree analysis shows the detail and characteristics of the proposed method.
文摘On the base of study of the correlation of fault tree's main data-minimum cutsets, minimum path sets, non-intersect minimum cut sets and non-intersect minimum path sets,transformation method among main data are found, i.e. the transformation can be realized by theoperation of cut sets matrixes. This method provides anew way to reduce 'NP' difficulty and simplifyFTA.
文摘To assess road traffic safety risk in civil aviation airports and develop effective accident prevention measures,this study proposed a risk assessment method based on accident tree and Bayesian network for airport aircraft activity areas.It identified influencing factors in the aircraft activity area from the perspectives of person-vehicle-road-environment-management and analyzed their relationships.The Bayesian network was utilized to determine initial probabilities for each influencing factor.Findings indicated a relatively high overall safety level in the airport's road traffic system.Accident trees were employed to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze common human-vehicle accident patterns.The initial probabilities obtained from the Bayesian network served as basic event probabilities in the accident tree to determine the occurrence probability of the top event.Taking a 4F airport in China as an example,accident cause analysis identified five important risk sources in human-vehicle accidents,including blind spots for special vehicles,illegal driving by drivers,pedestrians violating regulations,passengers entering restricted areas,and blind spots at intersections.Corresponding safety management measures were formulated.The study concluded that the integration of Bayesian networks and accident trees effectively determines accident probabilities and offers specific solutions,thus playing a crucial role in enhancing road traffic safety management within aviation airports.
文摘A new fault tree analysis (FTA) computation method is put forth by using modularization technique in FTA with cut sets matrix, and can reduce NP (Nondeterministic polynomial) difficulty effectively. This software can run in IBM PC and DOS 3.0 and up. The method provides theoretical basis and computation tool for application of FTA technique in the common engineering system
文摘This paper presents an approximate algorithm based on simulated annealing to achieve the maximum probability of the minimal cut sets for a fault tree. Near optimal minimal cut sets and important sequence of the basic events are also solved by the method. Computer simulations show that the algorithm performs very well.
