Shanghai is the country＇s highest-child ratio, the degree of aging of the most polluted cities, the only child into the social impact of large-scale marriage age caused by its breadth and depth will be much higher th...Shanghai is the country＇s highest-child ratio, the degree of aging of the most polluted cities, the only child into the social impact of large-scale marriage age caused by its breadth and depth will be much higher than other cities and regions. Based on the theory of reference, through empirical Shanghai and factors influencing fertility desires, according to factors that Shanghai alone couples second child restraint, make recommendations accordingly to provide a scientific basis for sound policy alone two births, further promote the ＂The New Two--child＂ policy implemented smoothly.展开更多
Below-replacement fertility has spread from developed industrialized countries to some developing countries, including China. Based on the theory of the transformation of intimacy, this study utilizes the data from th...Below-replacement fertility has spread from developed industrialized countries to some developing countries, including China. Based on the theory of the transformation of intimacy, this study utilizes the data from the Xi'an Special Survey on Child Rearing Costs and Fertility Intentions to explore the impact of spousal relationships on the fertility intentions of young urban couples and gender differences in this regard in terms of power relations, distribution of responsibility, and emotional connection. The study reveals that 1) an inverse J-shaped relationship(initially showing a decline followed by a rise) exists between family power equalization and fertility intentions, especially for women;2) the greater the husband's share of housework, the less he will desire fertility, but a wife's level of satisfaction with her husband's housework sharing increases her fertility motivation;and 3) frequent spousal interactions and emotional intimacy contribute to increased fertility intentions, especially on the part of women. From the perspective of the transformation of intimacy, the above results suggest that the impact of spousal relationships on young couples' fertility intentions is increasingly strong and that continued promotion of gender equality in the family sphere is of great significance to reversing low total fertility rates.展开更多
On the basis of the findings of 227 surveys of Chinese fertility intentions over the years 1980-2011, this paper investigates the longitudinal changes in fertility intentions through cross-temporal meta-analysis. It i...On the basis of the findings of 227 surveys of Chinese fertility intentions over the years 1980-2011, this paper investigates the longitudinal changes in fertility intentions through cross-temporal meta-analysis. It is found that the ideal number of children for the Chinese trended downwards from 1980, but since 2000 the average number has remained basically stable at 1.6 to 1.8. In the 1980s, people＇s fertility levels were higher than their fertility intentions. With economic and educational progress in China, both fertility levels and fertility intentions showed a downward trend, with the former declining faster than the latter. Since 1990, people＇s fertility levels have been lower than their fertility intentions; that is, their actual number of children has been less than their ideal number. This provides an empirical basis for examining the changes in China＇s fertility intentions and fertility levels.展开更多
This paper reports the fertility intension of women based on data from the national fertility survey in 2017 in China(CFS 2017),after implementation of the universal two-child policy,and analyses major related factors...This paper reports the fertility intension of women based on data from the national fertility survey in 2017 in China(CFS 2017),after implementation of the universal two-child policy,and analyses major related factors.The reported ideal number of children is 1.96 in average,and the intended number of children is 1.76,with obvi-ous differences among different regions.The ideal number of children is highly cor-related with the intended number of children,and intended number of children is related to number of children women already have.Women who have had one child intend to have fewer children than women who have not yet had a child.Women who have not yet had any child intend to have 1.60 children in average.The prefer-ence of boy varies by intended number of children.展开更多
The fertility rate of China has shown an overall decline trend,so the fully understanding of the factors affecting China’s fertility intention has become the focus of the research.Based on CFPS2020 data,the study sub...The fertility rate of China has shown an overall decline trend,so the fully understanding of the factors affecting China’s fertility intention has become the focus of the research.Based on CFPS2020 data,the study subjects were women of age between 20 and 49,who were born after the 1970s and were influenced by the family planning policy.Then,SMOTE-Catboost algorithm was used to construct a model.The results show that:(1)For the women’s willingness to have multiple children,the SMOTE-Catboost algorithm is more effective than the Catboost algorithm,and the classification accuracy is improved by 8 percentage points.(2)The factors influencing women’s willingness to have multiple children were ranked by social status,intergenerational care,education level and age.Women with high social status are more willing to have multiple children;All-day intergenerational care has a positive effect on women’s willingness to have multiple children.And women’s willingness to have multiple children declines with the rise of education level but increases with age.(3)Combined with the CFPS2018 data,the influencing factors changed over time.In 2018,the important factors related to women’s willingness to have multiple children were mainly related to economic,within which the income ranked locally is the most important one.In 2020,the most important factor changed to be social status while economic became less important.展开更多
The 13 th Five-Year Plan(2016─2020), with the balanced development of population being the core element, is crucial for China. The superimposed effect of an aging population and low birthrate leading to a reduction i...The 13 th Five-Year Plan(2016─2020), with the balanced development of population being the core element, is crucial for China. The superimposed effect of an aging population and low birthrate leading to a reduction in the labor supply would have a fundamental influence on the long term balanced development of China's population, implying that China's population policy must be adjusted. This paper argues that a gradual relaxation of the family-planning policy adjustments accords with the original intention of the population policy design and development direction. The universal second-child policy is the logical results of the adjustment and improvement of China's family-planning policy, and is designed to bring about positive effects on future demographic and economic development, particularly in sustaining the long term balanced development of China's population, easing the marriage squeeze, extending the demographic dividend, and delaying the population aging process. China needs to develop and improve support and governance systems for fully implementing the universal second-child policy, realizing the policy transition from rewarding one-child families to population security and the modern transition of governance systems and capacity to a universal second-child policy.展开更多
China currently has the world's most skewed national sex ratio at birth.In this paper,we use data from China's 2001 National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Survey and employ hierarchical logistic mode...China currently has the world's most skewed national sex ratio at birth.In this paper,we use data from China's 2001 National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Survey and employ hierarchical logistic models to study how macro factors(mainly fertility policy and economic indicators,as represented by per capita GDP of the village units sampled in this research)and micro factors(mainly fertility intention and sex composition of children)affect the gender of the next birth.We find that the effect of fertility policies is intertwined with the sex composition of children already born.For those couples who have had a son(or sons),fertility policy exerts no effect;but for those with only daughters,the effect is significant.Furthermore,fertility intention,independent from fertility policy,has a significant effect on the gender of the next birth.展开更多
文摘Shanghai is the country＇s highest-child ratio, the degree of aging of the most polluted cities, the only child into the social impact of large-scale marriage age caused by its breadth and depth will be much higher than other cities and regions. Based on the theory of reference, through empirical Shanghai and factors influencing fertility desires, according to factors that Shanghai alone couples second child restraint, make recommendations accordingly to provide a scientific basis for sound policy alone two births, further promote the ＂The New Two--child＂ policy implemented smoothly.
基金a phased result of "The Influence Mechanism and Promotion Strategy of Childhood Left-behind Experience on the Social Adaptation of New-Generation Rural Migrant Workers" supported by the National Social Science Fund of China (19BRK037)。
文摘Below-replacement fertility has spread from developed industrialized countries to some developing countries, including China. Based on the theory of the transformation of intimacy, this study utilizes the data from the Xi'an Special Survey on Child Rearing Costs and Fertility Intentions to explore the impact of spousal relationships on the fertility intentions of young urban couples and gender differences in this regard in terms of power relations, distribution of responsibility, and emotional connection. The study reveals that 1) an inverse J-shaped relationship(initially showing a decline followed by a rise) exists between family power equalization and fertility intentions, especially for women;2) the greater the husband's share of housework, the less he will desire fertility, but a wife's level of satisfaction with her husband's housework sharing increases her fertility motivation;and 3) frequent spousal interactions and emotional intimacy contribute to increased fertility intentions, especially on the part of women. From the perspective of the transformation of intimacy, the above results suggest that the impact of spousal relationships on young couples' fertility intentions is increasingly strong and that continued promotion of gender equality in the family sphere is of great significance to reversing low total fertility rates.
基金supported by the Social Research and Database Construction Project of CentralUniversity of Finance and Economicsthe National Social Sciences Fund(Project No.:14CRK011)
文摘On the basis of the findings of 227 surveys of Chinese fertility intentions over the years 1980-2011, this paper investigates the longitudinal changes in fertility intentions through cross-temporal meta-analysis. It is found that the ideal number of children for the Chinese trended downwards from 1980, but since 2000 the average number has remained basically stable at 1.6 to 1.8. In the 1980s, people＇s fertility levels were higher than their fertility intentions. With economic and educational progress in China, both fertility levels and fertility intentions showed a downward trend, with the former declining faster than the latter. Since 1990, people＇s fertility levels have been lower than their fertility intentions; that is, their actual number of children has been less than their ideal number. This provides an empirical basis for examining the changes in China＇s fertility intentions and fertility levels.
文摘This paper reports the fertility intension of women based on data from the national fertility survey in 2017 in China(CFS 2017),after implementation of the universal two-child policy,and analyses major related factors.The reported ideal number of children is 1.96 in average,and the intended number of children is 1.76,with obvi-ous differences among different regions.The ideal number of children is highly cor-related with the intended number of children,and intended number of children is related to number of children women already have.Women who have had one child intend to have fewer children than women who have not yet had a child.Women who have not yet had any child intend to have 1.60 children in average.The prefer-ence of boy varies by intended number of children.
基金the research project of Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics (number: KZ0072421051).
文摘The fertility rate of China has shown an overall decline trend,so the fully understanding of the factors affecting China’s fertility intention has become the focus of the research.Based on CFPS2020 data,the study subjects were women of age between 20 and 49,who were born after the 1970s and were influenced by the family planning policy.Then,SMOTE-Catboost algorithm was used to construct a model.The results show that:(1)For the women’s willingness to have multiple children,the SMOTE-Catboost algorithm is more effective than the Catboost algorithm,and the classification accuracy is improved by 8 percentage points.(2)The factors influencing women’s willingness to have multiple children were ranked by social status,intergenerational care,education level and age.Women with high social status are more willing to have multiple children;All-day intergenerational care has a positive effect on women’s willingness to have multiple children.And women’s willingness to have multiple children declines with the rise of education level but increases with age.(3)Combined with the CFPS2018 data,the influencing factors changed over time.In 2018,the important factors related to women’s willingness to have multiple children were mainly related to economic,within which the income ranked locally is the most important one.In 2020,the most important factor changed to be social status while economic became less important.
文摘The 13 th Five-Year Plan(2016─2020), with the balanced development of population being the core element, is crucial for China. The superimposed effect of an aging population and low birthrate leading to a reduction in the labor supply would have a fundamental influence on the long term balanced development of China's population, implying that China's population policy must be adjusted. This paper argues that a gradual relaxation of the family-planning policy adjustments accords with the original intention of the population policy design and development direction. The universal second-child policy is the logical results of the adjustment and improvement of China's family-planning policy, and is designed to bring about positive effects on future demographic and economic development, particularly in sustaining the long term balanced development of China's population, easing the marriage squeeze, extending the demographic dividend, and delaying the population aging process. China needs to develop and improve support and governance systems for fully implementing the universal second-child policy, realizing the policy transition from rewarding one-child families to population security and the modern transition of governance systems and capacity to a universal second-child policy.
基金supported by the key project of the National Social Science Foundation of China(14AZD096).
文摘China currently has the world's most skewed national sex ratio at birth.In this paper,we use data from China's 2001 National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Survey and employ hierarchical logistic models to study how macro factors(mainly fertility policy and economic indicators,as represented by per capita GDP of the village units sampled in this research)and micro factors(mainly fertility intention and sex composition of children)affect the gender of the next birth.We find that the effect of fertility policies is intertwined with the sex composition of children already born.For those couples who have had a son(or sons),fertility policy exerts no effect;but for those with only daughters,the effect is significant.Furthermore,fertility intention,independent from fertility policy,has a significant effect on the gender of the next birth.
