THE Chinese economy faces three major risks: burst of real estate bubbles, risks of local gov ernment financing platforms and split of capital chains for private lending.
It is of vital importance for shadow banking supervision to have correct targets for the curtailment of financial risks.In fact,the process of selecting legal regulation targets for shadow banking financial risks is e...It is of vital importance for shadow banking supervision to have correct targets for the curtailment of financial risks.In fact,the process of selecting legal regulation targets for shadow banking financial risks is equivalent to a process of achieving specific goals or objectives by means of legal regulation.The establishment of a regulatory system for shadow banking should consider the objective and practical needs of the sector,prioritize security as the desired value,and reasonably establish a value system for risk control.展开更多
The paper gives estimates for the finite-time ruin probability with insurance and financial risks. When the distribution of the insurance risk belongs to the class L(γ) for some γ〉0 or the subexponential distribu...The paper gives estimates for the finite-time ruin probability with insurance and financial risks. When the distribution of the insurance risk belongs to the class L(γ) for some γ〉0 or the subexponential distribution class, we abtain some asymptotic equivalent relationships for the finite-time ruin probability, respectively. When the distribution of the insurance risk belongs to the dominated varying-tailed distribution class, we obtain asymptotic upper bound and lower bound for the finite-time ruin probability, where for the asymptotic upper bound, we completely get rid of the restriction of mutual independence on insurance risks, and for the lower bound, we only need the insurance risks to have a weak positive association structure. The obtained results extend and improve some existing results.展开更多
We construct a connected network between China and the economies that are financially linked to it,based on the network topology of variance decompositions,and measure the cross-border contagion of financial risks amo...We construct a connected network between China and the economies that are financially linked to it,based on the network topology of variance decompositions,and measure the cross-border contagion of financial risks among these economies.We then examine whether the concerted use of macroprudential policies mitigates the cross-border contagion of financial risks.The empirical results show that the tightening of macroprudential policies,especially counter-cyclical capital buffers and limits on credit growth,in economies with net spillover risk(e.g.the US and China).can reduce the cross-border spillover of domestic financial risks to other economies.The concerted use of macroprudential policies can contribute to global financial stability.However,the tightening of"capital"macroprudential policy tools will increase domestic cross-border absorption of financial risks.Hence,macroprudential regulation of cross-border capital flows must be strengthened.展开更多
financial services:for example,GPS and Bluetooth inspire location-based services,and search and web technologies motivate online shopping,reviews,and payments.These business services have become more connected than ev...financial services:for example,GPS and Bluetooth inspire location-based services,and search and web technologies motivate online shopping,reviews,and payments.These business services have become more connected than ever,and as a result,financial frauds have become a significant challenge.Therefore,combating financial risks in the big data era requires breaking the borders of traditional data,algorithms,and systems.An increasing number of studies have addressed these challenges and proposed new methods for risk detection,assessment,and forecasting.As a key contribution,we categorize these works in a rational framework:first,we identify the data that can be used to identify risks.We then discuss how big data can be combined with the emerging tools to effectively learn or analyze financial risk.Finally,we highlight the effectiveness of these methods in real-world applications.Furthermore,we stress on the importance of utilizing multi-channel information,graphs,and networks of long-range dependence for the effective identification of financial risks.We conclude our survey with a discussion on the new challenges faced by the financial sector,namely,deep fake technology,adversaries,causal and interpretable inference,privacy protection,and microsimulations.展开更多
Due to global financial crisis,risk management has received significant attention to avoid loss and maximize profit in any business.Since the financial crisis prediction(FCP)process is mainly based on data driven deci...Due to global financial crisis,risk management has received significant attention to avoid loss and maximize profit in any business.Since the financial crisis prediction(FCP)process is mainly based on data driven decision making and intelligent models,artificial intelligence(AI)and machine learning(ML)models are widely utilized.This article introduces an intelligent feature selection with deep learning based financial risk assessment model(IFSDL-FRA).The proposed IFSDL-FRA technique aims to determine the financial crisis of a company or enterprise.In addition,the IFSDL-FRA technique involves the design of new water strider optimization algorithm based feature selection(WSOA-FS)manner to an optimum selection of feature subsets.Moreover,Deep Random Vector Functional Link network(DRVFLN)classification technique was applied to properly allot the class labels to the financial data.Furthermore,improved fruit fly optimization algorithm(IFFOA)based hyperparameter tuning process is carried out to optimally tune the hyperparameters of the DRVFLN model.For enhancing the better performance of the IFSDL-FRA technique,an extensive set of simulations are implemented on benchmark financial datasets and the obtained outcomes determine the betterment of IFSDL-FRA technique on the recent state of art approaches.展开更多
By motivating local governments to fight for financial resources,China's tax sharing reform has affected the structure of financial decentralization and inflated local financial systems,thus spawning regional fina...By motivating local governments to fight for financial resources,China's tax sharing reform has affected the structure of financial decentralization and inflated local financial systems,thus spawning regional financial risks.Based on theoretical analysis and empirical evidence,this paper has arrived at the following findings:due to different policy objectives,central and local governments exhibit different fiscal and financial behaviors;public finance and financial sector have become financing instruments with certain convertibility under local economic growth framework;fiscal decentralization inevitably affects financial decentralization and lays the foundation for provincial fiscal disparities,resulting in a certain spatial effect of interprovincial fiscal variable;financial explicit centralization/implicit decentralization and fiscal centralization have fueled local competition for financial resources and resulted in correlation between the spatial effects of provincial financial and fiscal variables,and moreover,their mismatch has also spawned fiscal and financial risks on various fronts.Hence,setting clear boundaries of financial centralization and decentralization and ensuring local government fiscal accountability is the key to the prevention and mitigation of fiscal and financial risks in China.展开更多
According to the risk management process of financial markets,a financial risk dynamic system is constructed in this paper.Through analyzing the basic dynamic properties,we obtain the conditions for stability and bifu...According to the risk management process of financial markets,a financial risk dynamic system is constructed in this paper.Through analyzing the basic dynamic properties,we obtain the conditions for stability and bifurcation of the system based on Hopf bifurcation theory of nonlinear dynamic systems.In order to make the system's chaos disappear,we select the feedback gain matrix to design a class of chaotic controller.Numerical simulations are performed to reveal the change process of financial market risk.It is shown that,when the parameter of risk transmission rate changes,the system gradually comes into chaos from the asymptotically stable state through bifurcation.The controller can then control the chaos effectively.展开更多
By the mid-1990s, following nearly a century of struggles-two worldwars, continuous coups and clashes, and 40 years of Cold War with itsnuclear threat-mankind seemingly entered a new period of peace, stabili-
Different from foreign capital markets,china’s domestic capital markets are special,which also determines that the research on financial pressure starts from the reform of state-owned enterprises,and draws lessons fr...Different from foreign capital markets,china’s domestic capital markets are special,which also determines that the research on financial pressure starts from the reform of state-owned enterprises,and draws lessons from the relevant theories of financial risk and financial fraud,thus gradually forming a more diversified research results.展开更多
In recent years,China’s financial sector has witnessed a high growth trend.This trend has been caused by several reasons:the traditional macro-control tools do not match the new normal characteristics of China’s eco...In recent years,China’s financial sector has witnessed a high growth trend.This trend has been caused by several reasons:the traditional macro-control tools do not match the new normal characteristics of China’s economy growth,the regulatory reform is lagging behind the rapid progress of financial innovation,and the drastic fluctuations of the stock market are combined with a new round of increase in real estate price.In particular,this round of high growth in the financial sector occurs in the context of a rapid decline of manufacturing sector,which reflects the low efficiency of financial operations.It also means the foundation of financial stability and sustainable development is losing and high risks are coming.To deal with this change properly,we need to further deepen financial reform and improve financial supervision,and create a favorable financial environment for the real economy.At the same time,researchers should also reflect on and study the characteristics of China’s financial development,and provide the theoretical basis for maintaining financial security.展开更多
This study aims to identify risk management strategies undertaken by the commercial banks of Balochistan,Pakistan,to mitigate or eliminate credit risk.The findings of the study are significant as commercial banks will...This study aims to identify risk management strategies undertaken by the commercial banks of Balochistan,Pakistan,to mitigate or eliminate credit risk.The findings of the study are significant as commercial banks will understand the effectiveness of various risk management strategies and may apply them for minimizing credit risk.This explanatory study analyses the opinions of the employees of selected commercial banks about which strategies are useful for mitigating credit risk.Quantitative data was collected from 250 employees of commercial banks to perform multiple regression analyses,which were used for the analysis.The results identified four areas of impact on credit risk management(CRM):corporate governance exerts the greatest impact,followed by diversification,which plays a significant role,hedging and,finally,the bank’s Capital Adequacy Ratio.This study highlights these four risk management strategies,which are critical for commercial banks to resolve their credit risk.展开更多
Reverse mortgages(RM)are an attractive tool to increase retirement incomes and to face the needs of health care for elderly people.The investor in the RM market faces several risks:longevity risk,as retirees’life exp...Reverse mortgages(RM)are an attractive tool to increase retirement incomes and to face the needs of health care for elderly people.The investor in the RM market faces several risks:longevity risk,as retirees’life expectancy increases,interest rate risk,especially in the low-rate post-crisis period,property market risk,in the last stage of the current business cycle.In our pricing model we incorporate the overall risk of the RM,focusing on the feature of the developing Chinese market.展开更多
By incorporating both the fire sales contagion mechanism and the bankruptcy contagion mechanism into a bank network model,this paper examines how risks are generated under dynamic shocks.In particular,this paper const...By incorporating both the fire sales contagion mechanism and the bankruptcy contagion mechanism into a bank network model,this paper examines how risks are generated under dynamic shocks.In particular,this paper constructs systemic risk indicators suitable for analyzing multiple rounds of contagion under different shocks(time dimension)and from institutions and assets(spatial dimension).Indicators that measure the indirect relevance between institutions and between assets are also innovatively built.It is found that due to deleveraging or bankruptcy among a large number of banks,the systemic risk exhibits an upward trend marked by intermittent jumps under varying intensities of shocks.Risks are generated mainly through the fire sales contagion mechanism of deleveraging under small shocks,and through the bankruptcy contagion mechanism under large shocks.In terms of influencing factors,a stronger indirect relevance,a lower leverage skewness and a higher leverage level in the banking system lead to higher risks.In particular,the influence of leverage skewness on systemic risk is stronger than that of leverage level.展开更多
This paper proposes and investigates an optimal pair investment/pension policy for a pay-as-you-go(PAYG)pension scheme.The social planner can invest in a buffer fund in order to guarantee a minimal pension amount.The ...This paper proposes and investigates an optimal pair investment/pension policy for a pay-as-you-go(PAYG)pension scheme.The social planner can invest in a buffer fund in order to guarantee a minimal pension amount.The model aims at taking into account complex dynamic phenomena such as the demographic risk and its evolution over time,the time and age dependence of agents preferences,and financial risks.The preference criterion of the social planner is modeled by a consistent dynamic utility defined on a stochastic domain,which incorporates the heterogeneity of overlapping generations and its evolution over time.The preference criterion and the optimization problem also incorporate sustainability,adequacy and fairness constraints.The paper designs and solves the social planner's dynamic decision criterion,and computes the optimal investment/pension policy in a general framework.A detailed analysis for the case of dynamic power utilities is provided.展开更多
The impact of energy price fl uctuation on the macro economy is a hot issue that is continuously concerned by the academic community,but few literature have paid attention to the impact of energy price fl uctuation on...The impact of energy price fl uctuation on the macro economy is a hot issue that is continuously concerned by the academic community,but few literature have paid attention to the impact of energy price fl uctuation on housing price and the financial risks that may arise.Based on the data of cities at and above the prefecture level in China,this paper empirically examines the impact of energy price fl uctuation on the price fl uctuation of the domestic real estate,and analyzes its infl uencing mechanism and transmission pathways.The results show that changes of energy price will significantly affect the fl uctuation of domestic real estate price,and it is more obvious in large cities and megacities.Energy price affect the demand for housing through changes of interest rate levels on the one hand,and the supply of the real estate market through the cost of housing construction on the other hand,which leads to housing price fl uctuation.After a series of robustness tests,the results are still valid.At the same time,the effect is asymmetric,that is,higher energy price increases the fl uctuation of house price,but the impact of falling energy price is not significant.Therefore,when preventing real estate market risks,energy price should be considered as a forward-looking indicator to focus on,and the regulation and control policies of the real estate market should be scientifically formulated.This paper not only provides a new perspective on the mechanism of housing price formation,but also enriches the research on the interconnection between energy and financial markets.展开更多
Conventional financial risk assessment is not accurate and its adaptive assessment ability is low.In order to solve this problem,a financial risk assessment model based on big data is proposed.In this method,the quant...Conventional financial risk assessment is not accurate and its adaptive assessment ability is low.In order to solve this problem,a financial risk assessment model based on big data is proposed.In this method,the quantitative analysis method is adopted to analyze the explanatory variable model and the control variable model of financial risk assessment.The market-to-book ratio,asset–liability ratio,cash flow ratio and financing structure model are adopted as constraint parameters to construct a big data analysis model for financial risk assessment.On this basis,the adaptive fuzzy weighted control method is adopted for information fusion of financial risk assessment data and big data classification,and the asset income control and innovative evaluation model are adopted for linear planning and square fitting during financial risk assessment.Based on the intervention factors of financial market participants,quantitative regression analysis is performed,and according to the economic game theory,big data analysis and prediction of financial risk assessment are performed through the regression analysis method.Then the big data fusion and clustering algorithms are adopted for financial risk assessment.The simulation results show that this method can provide a relatively high accuracy in financial risk assessment,and has relatively strong adaptive evaluation capability to the risk coefficient,so it has a good application value in the prevention and control of risk factors in financial systems.展开更多
A new generalization of the Weibull-G family is proposed with two extra shape parameters.The mathematical properties are derived in great detail.Using the Weibull and normal distributions as baseline distributions,two...A new generalization of the Weibull-G family is proposed with two extra shape parameters.The mathematical properties are derived in great detail.Using the Weibull and normal distributions as baseline distributions,two models are introduced.The first model is a location-scale regression model based on a new extension of the Weibull distribution.The second model is a new two-step financial risk model to forecast the daily value at risk.The flexibility and applicability of the proposed models are investigated by means of five real data sets on the lifetime and financial returns.Empirical findings of the study show that proposed models work well and produce better results than other well-known models for financial risk modeling and censored lifetime data analysis.展开更多
文摘THE Chinese economy faces three major risks: burst of real estate bubbles, risks of local gov ernment financing platforms and split of capital chains for private lending.
基金This paper is funded by the National Social Science Fund titled“Study on the Legal Issues Concerning the Financial Risks and Security of Shadow Banking”(13CXF081).
文摘It is of vital importance for shadow banking supervision to have correct targets for the curtailment of financial risks.In fact,the process of selecting legal regulation targets for shadow banking financial risks is equivalent to a process of achieving specific goals or objectives by means of legal regulation.The establishment of a regulatory system for shadow banking should consider the objective and practical needs of the sector,prioritize security as the desired value,and reasonably establish a value system for risk control.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.10671139)
文摘The paper gives estimates for the finite-time ruin probability with insurance and financial risks. When the distribution of the insurance risk belongs to the class L(γ) for some γ〉0 or the subexponential distribution class, we abtain some asymptotic equivalent relationships for the finite-time ruin probability, respectively. When the distribution of the insurance risk belongs to the dominated varying-tailed distribution class, we obtain asymptotic upper bound and lower bound for the finite-time ruin probability, where for the asymptotic upper bound, we completely get rid of the restriction of mutual independence on insurance risks, and for the lower bound, we only need the insurance risks to have a weak positive association structure. The obtained results extend and improve some existing results.
基金the Humanities and Social Science Fund Project of Ministry of Education of China(No.20YJA790003)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(No.ZR2020MG039)the Future Plan for Young Scholars of Shandong University(No.2016WLJH05).
文摘We construct a connected network between China and the economies that are financially linked to it,based on the network topology of variance decompositions,and measure the cross-border contagion of financial risks among these economies.We then examine whether the concerted use of macroprudential policies mitigates the cross-border contagion of financial risks.The empirical results show that the tightening of macroprudential policies,especially counter-cyclical capital buffers and limits on credit growth,in economies with net spillover risk(e.g.the US and China).can reduce the cross-border spillover of domestic financial risks to other economies.The concerted use of macroprudential policies can contribute to global financial stability.However,the tightening of"capital"macroprudential policy tools will increase domestic cross-border absorption of financial risks.Hence,macroprudential regulation of cross-border capital flows must be strengthened.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.91746301,61772498,61802370,and 61902380.
文摘financial services:for example,GPS and Bluetooth inspire location-based services,and search and web technologies motivate online shopping,reviews,and payments.These business services have become more connected than ever,and as a result,financial frauds have become a significant challenge.Therefore,combating financial risks in the big data era requires breaking the borders of traditional data,algorithms,and systems.An increasing number of studies have addressed these challenges and proposed new methods for risk detection,assessment,and forecasting.As a key contribution,we categorize these works in a rational framework:first,we identify the data that can be used to identify risks.We then discuss how big data can be combined with the emerging tools to effectively learn or analyze financial risk.Finally,we highlight the effectiveness of these methods in real-world applications.Furthermore,we stress on the importance of utilizing multi-channel information,graphs,and networks of long-range dependence for the effective identification of financial risks.We conclude our survey with a discussion on the new challenges faced by the financial sector,namely,deep fake technology,adversaries,causal and interpretable inference,privacy protection,and microsimulations.
文摘Due to global financial crisis,risk management has received significant attention to avoid loss and maximize profit in any business.Since the financial crisis prediction(FCP)process is mainly based on data driven decision making and intelligent models,artificial intelligence(AI)and machine learning(ML)models are widely utilized.This article introduces an intelligent feature selection with deep learning based financial risk assessment model(IFSDL-FRA).The proposed IFSDL-FRA technique aims to determine the financial crisis of a company or enterprise.In addition,the IFSDL-FRA technique involves the design of new water strider optimization algorithm based feature selection(WSOA-FS)manner to an optimum selection of feature subsets.Moreover,Deep Random Vector Functional Link network(DRVFLN)classification technique was applied to properly allot the class labels to the financial data.Furthermore,improved fruit fly optimization algorithm(IFFOA)based hyperparameter tuning process is carried out to optimally tune the hyperparameters of the DRVFLN model.For enhancing the better performance of the IFSDL-FRA technique,an extensive set of simulations are implemented on benchmark financial datasets and the obtained outcomes determine the betterment of IFSDL-FRA technique on the recent state of art approaches.
基金National Social Science Foundation Key Project "Strategic Study on China's Financial Security in the 13th Five-Year Plan Period"(Grant No.15AJY017)National Social Science Foundation General Project "Study on Regional Risks,Moderate Decentralization and Local Financial System Reform"(Grant No.14BJY192)
文摘By motivating local governments to fight for financial resources,China's tax sharing reform has affected the structure of financial decentralization and inflated local financial systems,thus spawning regional financial risks.Based on theoretical analysis and empirical evidence,this paper has arrived at the following findings:due to different policy objectives,central and local governments exhibit different fiscal and financial behaviors;public finance and financial sector have become financing instruments with certain convertibility under local economic growth framework;fiscal decentralization inevitably affects financial decentralization and lays the foundation for provincial fiscal disparities,resulting in a certain spatial effect of interprovincial fiscal variable;financial explicit centralization/implicit decentralization and fiscal centralization have fueled local competition for financial resources and resulted in correlation between the spatial effects of provincial financial and fiscal variables,and moreover,their mismatch has also spawned fiscal and financial risks on various fronts.Hence,setting clear boundaries of financial centralization and decentralization and ensuring local government fiscal accountability is the key to the prevention and mitigation of fiscal and financial risks in China.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 70271068)
文摘According to the risk management process of financial markets,a financial risk dynamic system is constructed in this paper.Through analyzing the basic dynamic properties,we obtain the conditions for stability and bifurcation of the system based on Hopf bifurcation theory of nonlinear dynamic systems.In order to make the system's chaos disappear,we select the feedback gain matrix to design a class of chaotic controller.Numerical simulations are performed to reveal the change process of financial market risk.It is shown that,when the parameter of risk transmission rate changes,the system gradually comes into chaos from the asymptotically stable state through bifurcation.The controller can then control the chaos effectively.
文摘By the mid-1990s, following nearly a century of struggles-two worldwars, continuous coups and clashes, and 40 years of Cold War with itsnuclear threat-mankind seemingly entered a new period of peace, stabili-
文摘Different from foreign capital markets,china’s domestic capital markets are special,which also determines that the research on financial pressure starts from the reform of state-owned enterprises,and draws lessons from the relevant theories of financial risk and financial fraud,thus gradually forming a more diversified research results.
文摘In recent years,China’s financial sector has witnessed a high growth trend.This trend has been caused by several reasons:the traditional macro-control tools do not match the new normal characteristics of China’s economy growth,the regulatory reform is lagging behind the rapid progress of financial innovation,and the drastic fluctuations of the stock market are combined with a new round of increase in real estate price.In particular,this round of high growth in the financial sector occurs in the context of a rapid decline of manufacturing sector,which reflects the low efficiency of financial operations.It also means the foundation of financial stability and sustainable development is losing and high risks are coming.To deal with this change properly,we need to further deepen financial reform and improve financial supervision,and create a favorable financial environment for the real economy.At the same time,researchers should also reflect on and study the characteristics of China’s financial development,and provide the theoretical basis for maintaining financial security.
文摘This study aims to identify risk management strategies undertaken by the commercial banks of Balochistan,Pakistan,to mitigate or eliminate credit risk.The findings of the study are significant as commercial banks will understand the effectiveness of various risk management strategies and may apply them for minimizing credit risk.This explanatory study analyses the opinions of the employees of selected commercial banks about which strategies are useful for mitigating credit risk.Quantitative data was collected from 250 employees of commercial banks to perform multiple regression analyses,which were used for the analysis.The results identified four areas of impact on credit risk management(CRM):corporate governance exerts the greatest impact,followed by diversification,which plays a significant role,hedging and,finally,the bank’s Capital Adequacy Ratio.This study highlights these four risk management strategies,which are critical for commercial banks to resolve their credit risk.
文摘Reverse mortgages(RM)are an attractive tool to increase retirement incomes and to face the needs of health care for elderly people.The investor in the RM market faces several risks:longevity risk,as retirees’life expectancy increases,interest rate risk,especially in the low-rate post-crisis period,property market risk,in the last stage of the current business cycle.In our pricing model we incorporate the overall risk of the RM,focusing on the feature of the developing Chinese market.
文摘By incorporating both the fire sales contagion mechanism and the bankruptcy contagion mechanism into a bank network model,this paper examines how risks are generated under dynamic shocks.In particular,this paper constructs systemic risk indicators suitable for analyzing multiple rounds of contagion under different shocks(time dimension)and from institutions and assets(spatial dimension).Indicators that measure the indirect relevance between institutions and between assets are also innovatively built.It is found that due to deleveraging or bankruptcy among a large number of banks,the systemic risk exhibits an upward trend marked by intermittent jumps under varying intensities of shocks.Risks are generated mainly through the fire sales contagion mechanism of deleveraging under small shocks,and through the bankruptcy contagion mechanism under large shocks.In terms of influencing factors,a stronger indirect relevance,a lower leverage skewness and a higher leverage level in the banking system lead to higher risks.In particular,the influence of leverage skewness on systemic risk is stronger than that of leverage level.
基金The authors's research is part of the ANR project DREAMeS(ANR-21-CE46-0002)The research of Sarah Kaakai is Funded by the European Union(ERC,SINGER,101054787)。
文摘This paper proposes and investigates an optimal pair investment/pension policy for a pay-as-you-go(PAYG)pension scheme.The social planner can invest in a buffer fund in order to guarantee a minimal pension amount.The model aims at taking into account complex dynamic phenomena such as the demographic risk and its evolution over time,the time and age dependence of agents preferences,and financial risks.The preference criterion of the social planner is modeled by a consistent dynamic utility defined on a stochastic domain,which incorporates the heterogeneity of overlapping generations and its evolution over time.The preference criterion and the optimization problem also incorporate sustainability,adequacy and fairness constraints.The paper designs and solves the social planner's dynamic decision criterion,and computes the optimal investment/pension policy in a general framework.A detailed analysis for the case of dynamic power utilities is provided.
文摘The impact of energy price fl uctuation on the macro economy is a hot issue that is continuously concerned by the academic community,but few literature have paid attention to the impact of energy price fl uctuation on housing price and the financial risks that may arise.Based on the data of cities at and above the prefecture level in China,this paper empirically examines the impact of energy price fl uctuation on the price fl uctuation of the domestic real estate,and analyzes its infl uencing mechanism and transmission pathways.The results show that changes of energy price will significantly affect the fl uctuation of domestic real estate price,and it is more obvious in large cities and megacities.Energy price affect the demand for housing through changes of interest rate levels on the one hand,and the supply of the real estate market through the cost of housing construction on the other hand,which leads to housing price fl uctuation.After a series of robustness tests,the results are still valid.At the same time,the effect is asymmetric,that is,higher energy price increases the fl uctuation of house price,but the impact of falling energy price is not significant.Therefore,when preventing real estate market risks,energy price should be considered as a forward-looking indicator to focus on,and the regulation and control policies of the real estate market should be scientifically formulated.This paper not only provides a new perspective on the mechanism of housing price formation,but also enriches the research on the interconnection between energy and financial markets.
文摘Conventional financial risk assessment is not accurate and its adaptive assessment ability is low.In order to solve this problem,a financial risk assessment model based on big data is proposed.In this method,the quantitative analysis method is adopted to analyze the explanatory variable model and the control variable model of financial risk assessment.The market-to-book ratio,asset–liability ratio,cash flow ratio and financing structure model are adopted as constraint parameters to construct a big data analysis model for financial risk assessment.On this basis,the adaptive fuzzy weighted control method is adopted for information fusion of financial risk assessment data and big data classification,and the asset income control and innovative evaluation model are adopted for linear planning and square fitting during financial risk assessment.Based on the intervention factors of financial market participants,quantitative regression analysis is performed,and according to the economic game theory,big data analysis and prediction of financial risk assessment are performed through the regression analysis method.Then the big data fusion and clustering algorithms are adopted for financial risk assessment.The simulation results show that this method can provide a relatively high accuracy in financial risk assessment,and has relatively strong adaptive evaluation capability to the risk coefficient,so it has a good application value in the prevention and control of risk factors in financial systems.
文摘A new generalization of the Weibull-G family is proposed with two extra shape parameters.The mathematical properties are derived in great detail.Using the Weibull and normal distributions as baseline distributions,two models are introduced.The first model is a location-scale regression model based on a new extension of the Weibull distribution.The second model is a new two-step financial risk model to forecast the daily value at risk.The flexibility and applicability of the proposed models are investigated by means of five real data sets on the lifetime and financial returns.Empirical findings of the study show that proposed models work well and produce better results than other well-known models for financial risk modeling and censored lifetime data analysis.