In 2022,the United States stepped up its sanctions on Russia.Most notably,it restricted the flow of the Russian Central Bank's foreign exchange(forex)assets,using financial administrative power as a source of stra...In 2022,the United States stepped up its sanctions on Russia.Most notably,it restricted the flow of the Russian Central Bank's foreign exchange(forex)assets,using financial administrative power as a source of strategic leverage.This move should have reduced the appeal of US dollar assets but in reality has not accelerated as expected the decline of the greenback as a store of value.The US dollar's share of global forex reserves increased instead of decreased during 2022 and 2023.Despite the rise of economic costs caused by tightened US financial sanctions,countries that recognize the geopolitical role of the United States have further accepted the dollar's international status;their continued willingness to live with the dollar's“security premium”has given a fillip to the US dollar in the short term,boosting its appeal as a reserve currency.Meanwhile,de-dollarization of forex reserves has yet to reach a sufficient scale,thus falling short of significantly challenging the dollar's reign.From a longer-term perspective,as economic and security conditions shift,countries that accept the dollar's international role or seek de-dollarization may change their choices.As a result,four possible scenarios may arise:(i)the preeminence of the US dollar remains unthreatened;(ii)the international monetary system splits into blocs;(iii)the international monetary system fragments;and(iv)the dollar loses its throne.The author believes that the last scenario is the most likely outcome.展开更多
Since the Crimean crisis, the US has continuously tightened financial sanctions on Russia. In the short term, this doesn't appear to be working very effectively, but in the long run, it has indeed had an irreversi...Since the Crimean crisis, the US has continuously tightened financial sanctions on Russia. In the short term, this doesn't appear to be working very effectively, but in the long run, it has indeed had an irreversible impact on the Russian economy. Though the US has repeatedly upgraded its sanction plans, four puzzles have long remained unsolved: appropriate sanctions have avoided a humanitarian crisis, but raised moral dilemmas; actual enforcement of sanctions is getting more and more difficult; EU cooperation with the US is vital, but the two regions more often than not play different tunes; and the frequent use of sanctions weakens US legitimacy and integrity, leading to a degradation of the sanction mechanism. Sanctions have continued to be implemented since President Trump took office, but with some new adjustments.展开更多
The sanctions imposed by the G10 countries on financial institutions in Russia,including on its central bank,mil come under scrutiny by emerging market central banks.This will help them build appropriate safeguards ag...The sanctions imposed by the G10 countries on financial institutions in Russia,including on its central bank,mil come under scrutiny by emerging market central banks.This will help them build appropriate safeguards against disruptions to cross-border transactions and revise their investment mandates to reduce the risk of reserve asset freezes.Building new1 financial market infrastructure and cross-border payment systems,or strengthening existing ones,will become the priority of emerging global powers.The goal will be to build systems that support democratic governance mechanisms,have oversight arrangements involving the central banks of trusted countries,and promote fair and safe access to clearing and settlement under well-defined policy guidelines.The use of alternatives to the US dollar as the invoicing currency in international trade will gather momentum.Markets for energy and other commodities will be the change drivers.China has an important role to play.展开更多
文摘In 2022,the United States stepped up its sanctions on Russia.Most notably,it restricted the flow of the Russian Central Bank's foreign exchange(forex)assets,using financial administrative power as a source of strategic leverage.This move should have reduced the appeal of US dollar assets but in reality has not accelerated as expected the decline of the greenback as a store of value.The US dollar's share of global forex reserves increased instead of decreased during 2022 and 2023.Despite the rise of economic costs caused by tightened US financial sanctions,countries that recognize the geopolitical role of the United States have further accepted the dollar's international status;their continued willingness to live with the dollar's“security premium”has given a fillip to the US dollar in the short term,boosting its appeal as a reserve currency.Meanwhile,de-dollarization of forex reserves has yet to reach a sufficient scale,thus falling short of significantly challenging the dollar's reign.From a longer-term perspective,as economic and security conditions shift,countries that accept the dollar's international role or seek de-dollarization may change their choices.As a result,four possible scenarios may arise:(i)the preeminence of the US dollar remains unthreatened;(ii)the international monetary system splits into blocs;(iii)the international monetary system fragments;and(iv)the dollar loses its throne.The author believes that the last scenario is the most likely outcome.
文摘Since the Crimean crisis, the US has continuously tightened financial sanctions on Russia. In the short term, this doesn't appear to be working very effectively, but in the long run, it has indeed had an irreversible impact on the Russian economy. Though the US has repeatedly upgraded its sanction plans, four puzzles have long remained unsolved: appropriate sanctions have avoided a humanitarian crisis, but raised moral dilemmas; actual enforcement of sanctions is getting more and more difficult; EU cooperation with the US is vital, but the two regions more often than not play different tunes; and the frequent use of sanctions weakens US legitimacy and integrity, leading to a degradation of the sanction mechanism. Sanctions have continued to be implemented since President Trump took office, but with some new adjustments.
文摘The sanctions imposed by the G10 countries on financial institutions in Russia,including on its central bank,mil come under scrutiny by emerging market central banks.This will help them build appropriate safeguards against disruptions to cross-border transactions and revise their investment mandates to reduce the risk of reserve asset freezes.Building new1 financial market infrastructure and cross-border payment systems,or strengthening existing ones,will become the priority of emerging global powers.The goal will be to build systems that support democratic governance mechanisms,have oversight arrangements involving the central banks of trusted countries,and promote fair and safe access to clearing and settlement under well-defined policy guidelines.The use of alternatives to the US dollar as the invoicing currency in international trade will gather momentum.Markets for energy and other commodities will be the change drivers.China has an important role to play.
