Future impacts of climate change on forest fire danger in northeastern China

Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China （1961 1990） as our validation data, and the period （1991–2100） was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system （PRECIS）. Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.

Comparisons and Assessment of Forest Fire Danger Systems

The paper gives a brief description about the current main forest fire danger rating systems in the world, which in- clude forest fire danger rating system used in Canada, USA, Australia, and other countries. It shows the composition, structure and development of the main fire danger rating systems. The limitations of those systems are also discussed. Through a comparison of the three main forest fire danger rating systems the paper describes their differences on development, fuel complex descriptions, inputs and outputs, and their applications and finds that the technologies of the Canadian forest fire danger rating system can be adopted for China to develop a national forest fire danger rating system. Two steps are needed to develop our own national forest fire danger rating system. Firstly, we apply the CFFDRS directly. Then some studies should be done to calibrate the FDRS to local weather and fuel characteristics.

Forest fire danger ratings in the 2040s for northeastern China

The average temperature of northeastern China is expected to increase 2.22 and 2.55℃ under two scenarios selected from the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）, i.e., A2 and B2, during the 2040s （2041-2050）, which will have an impact on fire activities in those areas. We calculated the output of regional climate models, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） on a scale of 50 km × 50 km. Meteorological data and fire weather index were interpolated to a scale of 1 km × 1 km by using ANUSPLIN software. The results show that the model of Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies （PRECIS） had the ability to provide good temperature and precipitation estimates of the study area in the baseline period, by simulation. In the 2040s the mean FWI values of the study area will increase during most of the fire seasons under both selected scenarios, compared with the baseline period. Under scenario B2 the peak fire season will appear in advance. The changes of FWI ratio （2×CO2/l ×CO2） show that the potential burned areas will increase 20% under scenario B2 and lightly increase under scenario A2 in 2040s. The days of high, very high and extreme fire danger classes will add 5 and 18 d under scenarios A2 and B2, respectively. It suggests adapting the climate change through improving fuel management and enhancing the fighting abilities.

STUDY ON FOREST FIRE DANGER MODEL WITH REMOTE SENSING BASED ON GIS

Forest fire is one of the main natural hazards because of its fierce destructiveness. Various researches on fire real time monitoring, behavior simulation and loss assessment have been carried out in many countries. As fire prevention is probably the most efficient means for protecting forests, suitable methods should be developed for estimating the fire danger. Fire danger is composed of ecological, human and climatic factors. Therefore, the systematic analysis of the factors including forest characteristics, meteorological status, topographic condition causing forest fire is made in this paper at first. The relationships between biophysical factors and fire danger are paid more attention to. Then the parameters derived from remote sensing data are used to estimate the fire danger variables, According to the analysis, not only PVI (Perpendicular Vegetation Index) can classify different vegetation but also crown density is captured with PVI. Vegetation moisture content has high correlation with the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (LE) to potential ecapotranspiration (LEp). SI (Structural Index), which is the combination of TM band 4 and 5 data, is a good indicator of forest age. Finally, a fire danger prediction model, in which relative importance of each fire factor is taken into account, is built based on GIS.

Preliminary Study on Forest Fire Prevention and Extinguishing in Townships in the Southern Mountainous Areas of Zhejiang Province:A Case Study of Lishui

Forest fires seriously threaten forestry resources and the life and property safety of people in mountainous areas of Lishui City. In this paper, a fire prevention concept with refined forecast and early warning of forest fire danger weather ratings in townships as the starting point, satellite real-time observation of fire spots, monitoring of the Internet of Things and other high-tech products as an implementation means, and strengthening forest fire prevention equipment and personnel in townships as a guarantee was established. The command system for rapid emergency response by cities, counties and townships should be improved. During the forest fire prevention period, fire sources should be strictly controlled, and the basic principles of forest fire fighting in townships should be implemented into the actual fire prevention and fire fighting work to eliminate forest fires in time at the initial stage and before the disaster.

Danger Detection during Fight against Compartment-Fire Using Moving Averages in Temperature Recordings

In compartment fires (houses, buildings, underground, warehouse, etc.), smokes are a major dan- ger during firemen intervention. Most of the time, they are at high temperature (>800?C) and they flow everywhere through many kinds of ducts, which leads to the propagation of the combustion by the creation other fires in places which may be far away from the initial fire. In this paper, we present a new approach of the problem, which allows to better follow the fire behavior and especially to detect the dangers that may appear and endanger firefighters. This approach consists in a mathematical analysis based on the comparison of moving averages centered in the past, calculated on the temperature recordings of the smokes. As a consequence, this method may allow to improve decision support in real time and therefore to improve the security and the efficiency of firefighters in their operations against that kind of fires.

The impact of climate change on fire risk in Daxing'anling,China

Daxing’anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China. Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate change for the region and provide a reference for applying adaptive measures for fire management. This study analyzed the changes in fire weather indices and the fire season under four climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) for 2021-2050 using data from five global climate models together with observation data. The results showed that the analog data could project the average state of the climate for a given period but were not effective for simulating extreme weather conditions. Compared with the baseline period (1971-2000), the period 2021-2050 was predicted to have an increase in average temperature of 2.02-2.65?°C and in annual precipitation 25.4-40.3?mm, while the fire weather index (FWI) was predicted to increase by 6.2-11.2% and seasonal severity rating (SSR) by 5.5-17.2%. The DMC (Duff moisture code), ISI (initial spread index), BUI (build-up index), FWI and SSR were predicted to increase significantly under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Furthermore, days with high or higher fire danger rating were predicted to be prolonged by 3-6?days, with the change in the southern region being greater under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5.

危化品火灾主要特点及灭火救援措施

本文对危化品火灾的主要特点及灭火救援措施进行了深入研究。首先,文章分析了危化品火灾的四个主要特点,包括燃烧剧烈、蔓延迅速、毒性强和爆炸风险高。然后,阐述了危化品火灾中产生危害物的机理,包括燃烧产物、分解产物和化学反应产物。接着,文章详细介绍了危化品火灾的灭火救援措施,包括火灾扑救、人员疏散与救援以及火场监测与评估。最后,通过一个具体的硝酸火灾案例分析,展示了灭火救援措施在实际应用中的效果。

包装危险货物装卸码头消防及安全技术要求

目前的码头相关规范重点聚焦液体散装危险货物码头,缺少适用包装危险货物装卸码头的技术标准。为明晰包装危险货物码头消防及安全技术要点,采用规范梳理法、逻辑推理法、经验总结法,对包装危险货物装卸码头涉及的船型、火灾危险性定性、安全距离、平面布置、工艺设备配置、消防设计和安全设施设计要点进行分析,提出包装危险货物装卸码头设计时消防及安全技术要点。

Fire risk evaluation research on fully mechanized coalface based on the uncertainty measure theory

A relatively perfect coalmine fire risk-evaluating and order-arranging model that includes sixteen influential factors was established according to the statistical information of the fully mechanized coalface ground on the uncertainty measure theory.Then the single-index measure function of sixteen influential factors and the calculation method of computing the index weight ground on entropy theory were respectively established.The value assignment of sixteen influential factors was carried out by the qualitative analysis and observational data, respectively, in succession.The sequence of fire danger class of four experimental coalfaces could be obtained by the computational aids of Matlab according to the confidence level criterion.Some conclusions that the fire danger class of the No.1, No.2 and No.3 coalface belongs to high criticality can be obtained.But the fire danger class of the No.4 coalface belongs to higher criticality.The fire danger class of the No.4 coalface is more than that of the No.2 coalface.The fire danger class of the No.2 coalface is more than that of the No.1 coalface.Finally, the fire danger class of the No.1 coalface is more than that of the No.3 coalface.

地下商场火灾危险性及消防监督管理研究

对地下商场火灾的危险性及消防监督管理措施进行研究,从人员疏散、有害气体、火灾扑救等方面分析商场火灾的危险性,从安全疏散、排烟审查、建筑耐火等探讨实现消防监督管理,保障消防监督措施得到有效运用的途径和方法。

基于LSTM-AE-OCSVM的带式输送机火灾监测隐患识别技术

针对传统带式输送机火灾隐患识别方法的漏报率和误报率高的问题,通过挖掘带式输送机火灾监测中多元时间序列(MTS)数据,提出了一种长短时记忆-自编码的一类支持向量机神经网络(LSTM-AE-OCSVM)火灾隐患识别算法。首先,改进自动编码器(AE)将隐藏层中的神经元替换为LSTM神经元;然后,提取带式输送机火灾无异常监测数据的时序特征并重构输入数据;其次,改进LSTM-AE将重构值与实际值的差值序列经OCSVM训练得到包含无隐患异常样本的超平面;最后,通过计算测试集与超平面距离函数值来划分隐患异常。仿真结果表明,实验中所提出的改进方法与传统的LSTM和OCSVM等隐患异常检测方法相比准确率更高,达到了90.1%。该方法在识别矿井带式输送机火灾隐患上具有重要的应用价值。

应用GIS技术进行森林火险等级区划研究

文章利用研究区的SPOT-6遥感数据和1:50000的基础地理矢量数据,在GIS技术支持下,以植被类型、海拔、坡度、坡向为林火影响因子,综合运用ArcGIS的空间分析,在较小空间尺度上进行了森林火险等级区划研究。

大型商业综合体灭火救援战术研究

分析了大型商业综合体火灾的危险性和灭火救援存在的难点,结合自身灭火救援工作实践经验,对灭火救援战术在大型商业综合体中的应用进行深入研究,以期实现灭火救援目标,有效提升灭火救援整体工作水平。

易燃易爆危化品储存的消防监督检查要点

化工生产的原材料大部分都具有易燃易爆的危险性,如果存储管理不当,可能会引发火灾和爆炸事故,造成人员伤亡和财产损失。文章主要对易燃易爆危化品存储中的危害因素进行分析,探究消防监督检查要点,为危化品行业保驾护航,以促进经济发展和保障社会稳定。

高层建筑消防隐患排查与防火监督方法研究

在高层建筑消防隐患排查以及防火监管过程中,相关单位应当制定出科学合理的管理计划、管理方案,并且明确相应的监督管理措施,以及排查管控重点和要点,从而才能够全方位提高高层建筑消防隐患管理水平、管控效率。本文对高层建筑消防隐患排查以及防火监督管理的办法进行简要分析探讨,以期为相关从业人员提供参考。

基于ArcGIS的森林火灾隐患分析及防范对策研究——以厦门市同安区为例

基于同安区森林火灾综合风险普查数据,结合森林资源“一张图”数据,运用ArcGIS空间分析技术,以林业小班为评价单元,对同安区森林火灾风险等级进行评价定级。研究分析了森林火灾隐患的影响因素、分布情况特征,评估了研究区森林火灾防范能力。结果表明:1)可燃物载量是影响同安区森林火灾隐患最大的指标;2)同安区森林火灾风险等级高、中高风险等级占据较大比例,存在较大的火灾隐患风险;3)同安区森林火灾的防范能力水平一般,有待提高。为提高同安区森林火灾防范能力,提出了一系列建议措施,以期为同安区在森林火灾应急管理方面提供决策参考。

危险品停车场消防给水设计探讨

随着一批化工园区的批复建设,化工园区中配套的危险品停车场安全及消防将是规划设计中需要重点考虑的前期问题。通过分析危险品停车场周边市政基础资料及消防给水系统组成,详细说明了不同情况下危险品停车场消防给水系统的设置原则,通过EPC+O模式的危险品停车场案例介绍消防设施设置及管理系统。

大型商业综合体的火灾危险性及消防安全管理研究

大型商业综合体是现代城市发展过程中形成的重要建筑模式,在空间利用率上有着突出的优势,能够在有限的空间内集合多样化的功能,满足城市居民的多样化需求。但这一建筑模式在消防安全方面却存在着较大的隐患,因此大型商业综合体必须重视,保障运营的安全性与稳定性。基于此,介绍大型商业综合体的基本情况,结合其功能与构成分析大型商业综合体的火灾危险性,基于大型商业综合体消防安全管理的实际情况,总结其中存在的问题并提出相应的管理策略。