ARHCS (Automatic Rainfall Half-Life Cluster System): A Landslides Early Warning System (LEWS) Using Cluster Analysis and Automatic Threshold Definition

A significant portion of Landslide Early Warning Systems (LEWS) relies on the definition of operational thresholds and the monitoring of cumulative rainfall for alert issuance. These thresholds can be obtained in various ways, but most often they are based on previous landslide data. This approach introduces several limitations. For instance, there is a requirement for the location to have been previously monitored in some way to have this type of information recorded. Another significant limitation is the need for information regarding the location and timing of incidents. Despite the current ease of obtaining location information (GPS, drone images, etc.), the timing of the event remains challenging to ascertain for a considerable portion of landslide data. Concerning rainfall monitoring, there are multiple ways to consider it, for instance, examining accumulations over various intervals (1 h, 6 h, 24 h, 72 h), as well as in the calculation of effective rainfall, which represents the precipitation that actually infiltrates the soil. However, in the vast majority of cases, both the thresholds and the rain monitoring approach are defined manually and subjectively, relying on the operators’ experience. This makes the process labor-intensive and time-consuming, hindering the establishment of a truly standardized and rapidly scalable methodology on a large scale. In this work, we propose a Landslides Early Warning System (LEWS) based on the concept of rainfall half-life and the determination of thresholds using Cluster Analysis and data inversion. The system is designed to be applied in extensive monitoring networks, such as the one utilized by Cemaden, Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters.

Early-warning of Mud Expansion in Sewage Treatment Plants by A/O Technology

Early-warning is an effective way to control mud expansion in sewage treatment plants with A/O technology. In the research, warning indices and technology of active mud were explored and it is concluded that bacteria growth in mud can be obtained by observation of mud appearance and microorganism variety, and measurement of the number of filamentous bacteria, water quality, mud load and age, dissolved oxygen, temperature and pH. Furthermore, filamentous bacteria in mud can be researched through fluorescence in situ hybridization, PCR-temperature denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and PCR-single-stranded conformation polymorphism in order to determine the characters and states of active mud to achieve early warning of mud expansion.

Recognizing Early Warning Signs (EWS) in Patients Is Critically Important

Introduction: Monitoring vital signs is a basic indicator of a patient’s health status and allows prompt detection of delayed recovery or adverse effects and early intervention. Patients with adverse events during hospitalization often display clinical decline for several hours before the event is observed. Non-critical care Nurses’ inconsistent recognition and response to patient deterioration lead to an increase in the length of hospital stay, unexpected admissions to the ICU, and increased morbidity and mortality. Aim: The study aimed to assess the factors that facilitate or impede the detection of early warning signs among adult patients hospitalized in tertiary care settings. Training should be provided to improve nurses’ knowledge, practice and attitude toward early warning signs of deteriorating patients leading to enhanced clinical judgment, skills and decision-making in addressing alerts. Methodology: A literature search was carried out in various databases;these were Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINHAL), Google Scholar, PubMed, Science Direct, and Sage. The search area was narrowed from 2017 to 2022. The keywords used were “prevalence” AND “unplanned ICU admission”, “the importance of early warning signs” “outcome failure in rescue” “patient deterioration, communication” “improvement in early detection” AND “patient outcome admission” AND “early warning signs” AND “Pakistan”. After the analysis process, around 33 articles that met the inclusion criteria and were most relevant to the scope and context of the current study were considered. Conclusion: Most of the studies had reviewed literature in a qualitative retrospective observational study, content analysis, mixed method, and quasi-experimental study. The literature review identified that long hours of shift, nurse staffing levels, missed vital signs, lack of nursing training and education, and communication impact nurses’ ability to recognize and respond to early warning signs.

Analysis the First Arrival of P-Wave of Ina-TEWS and CTBT Stations to Support Earthquake Early Warning

The authors make the analysis of first arrivals of the P-wave from Ina-TEWS （Indonesian tsunami early warning system） and CTBT （comprehensive nuclear-test-band treaty） stations. These are used for earthquake early warning, magnitude determination and potential earthquake hazard mitigation based on seismogram acceleration. This research is focused on the study of energy duration of high frequency, and the maximum displacement of P-waves by observing broadband seismograms. The further analysis consists of deconvolution, integration or defferentiation, recursive filtering for data restitution, and applying a Butterworth filter of second order. The Butterworth filter uses high frequency 0.075 Hz to cut the effect of drift, and band-pass frequency 2-4 Hz for use in magnitude calculation. The authors choose potentially damaging earthquakes to be greater than Mw 〉 6.0. Based on the trigger on the three seconds the first arrival P-wave, the dominant period （Td） and amplitude displacement （Pd） was calculated by using data CISI （Indonesian CI Sompet） seismological station, Garut （west Java） and tested for data CTBT, LEM bang, Bandung （LEM station）. This research resulted determination of the P-wave arrival time accurately using integrated skewness and kurtosis. Performance data from the CTBT stations is very high. Signal to noise ratio 〉1,000 after passing through the filter. Such riset conducted to find out a rapid magnitude estimations from predominant frequency of displacement are： log Td = 0.2406 M- 1.3665 （R = 0.73） or M = 4.156 log Td ＋ 5.6797. Relationship of Pd, magnitude moment, Mw and hypocentre, R are log Pd = -4.684 ＋ 0.815 Mw - 1.36 log R. For relation of PGA （peak ground acceleration） and amplitude displacement are log PGA = 1.117 log Pd ＋ 0.728 （R = 0.91）. Furthermore, this formula can be used to support earthquake early warning in west of Java.

The SNAKE System: CEMADEN’s Landslide Early Warning System (LEWS) Mechanism

In Brazil, the prominent climate-induced disasters are floods and mass movements, with the latter being the most lethal. The spate of major landslide events, especially those in 2011, catalyzed the creation of CEMADEN (National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters). This article introduces one of CEMADEN’s pivotal systems for early landslide warnings and traces its developmental timeline. The highlighted SNAKE System epitomizes advancements in digital monitoring, forecasting, and alert mechanisms. By leveraging precipitation data from pluviometers in observed municipalities, the system bolsters early warnings related to potential mass movements, like planar slides and debris flows. Its deployment in CEMADEN’s Situation Room attests to its suitability for overseeing high-risk municipalities, attributed primarily to its robustness and precision.

Early warning method for thermal runaway of lithium-ion batteries under thermal abuse condition based on online electrochemical impedance monitoring

Early warning of thermal runaway(TR)of lithium-ion batteries(LIBs)is a significant challenge in current application scenarios.Timely and effective TR early warning technology is urgently required considering the current fire safety situation of LIBs.In this work,we report an early warning method of TR with online electrochemical impedance spectroscopy(EIS)monitoring,which overcomes the shortcomings of warning methods based on traditional signals such as temperature,gas,and pressure with obvious delay and high cost.With in-situ data acquisition through accelerating rate calorimeter(ARC)-EIS test,the crucial features of TR were extracted using the RReliefF algorithm.TR mechanisms corresponding to the features at specific frequencies were analyzed.Finally,a three-level warning strategy for single battery,series module,and parallel module was formulated,which can successfully send out an early warning signal ahead of the self-heating temperature of battery under thermal abuse condition.The technology can provide a reliable basis for the timely intervention of battery thermal management and fire protection systems and is expected to be applied to electric vehicles and energy storage devices to realize early warning and improve battery safety.

Effect of preload forces on multidimensional signal dynamic behaviours for battery early safety warning

Providing early safety warning for batteries in real-world applications is challenging.In this study,comprehensive thermal abuse experiments are conducted to clarify the multidimensional signal evolution of battery failure under various preload forces.The time-sequence relationship among expansion force,voltage,and temperature during thermal abuse under five categorised stages is revealed.Three characteristic peaks are identified for the expansion force,which correspond to venting,internal short-circuiting,and thermal runaway.In particular,an abnormal expansion force signal can be detected at temperatures as low as 42.4°C,followed by battery thermal runaway in approximately 6.5 min.Moreover,reducing the preload force can improve the effectiveness of the early-warning method via the expansion force.Specifically,reducing the preload force from 6000 to 1000 N prolongs the warning time(i.e.,227 to 398 s)before thermal runaway is triggered.Based on the results,a notable expansion force early-warning method is proposed that can successfully enable early safety warning approximately 375 s ahead of battery thermal runaway and effectively prevent failure propagation with module validation.This study provides a practical reference for the development of timely and accurate early-warning strategies as well as guidance for the design of safer battery systems.

Comparing 11 early warning scores and three shock indices in early sepsis prediction in the emergency department

BACKGROUND:This study aimed to evaluate the discriminatory performance of 11 vital sign-based early warning scores(EWSs)and three shock indices in early sepsis prediction in the emergency department(ED).METHODS:We performed a retrospective study on consecutive adult patients with an infection over 3 months in a public ED in Hong Kong.The primary outcome was sepsis(Sepsis-3 definition)within 48 h of ED presentation.Using c-statistics and the DeLong test,we compared 11 EWSs,including the National Early Warning Score 2(NEWS2),Modified Early Warning Score,and Worthing Physiological Scoring System(WPS),etc.,and three shock indices(the shock index[SI],modified shock index[MSI],and diastolic shock index[DSI]),with Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome(SIRS)and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment(qSOFA)in predicting the primary outcome,intensive care unit admission,and mortality at different time points.RESULTS:We analyzed 601 patients,of whom 166(27.6%)developed sepsis.NEWS2 had the highest point estimate(area under the receiver operating characteristic curve[AUROC]0.75,95%CI 0.70-0.79)and was significantly better than SIRS,qSOFA,other EWSs and shock indices,except WPS,at predicting the primary outcome.However,the pooled sensitivity and specificity of NEWS2≥5 for the prediction of sepsis were 0.45(95%CI 0.37-0.52)and 0.88(95%CI 0.85-0.91),respectively.The discriminatory performance of all EWSs and shock indices declined when used to predict mortality at a more remote time point.CONCLUSION:NEWS2 compared favorably with other EWSs and shock indices in early sepsis prediction but its low sensitivity at the usual cut-off point requires further modification for sepsis screening.

Multi-Lever EarlyWarning forWind and Photovoltaic Power Ramp Events Based on Neural Network and Fuzzy Logic

With the increasing penetration of renewable energy in power system,renewable energy power ramp events(REPREs),dominated by wind power and photovoltaic power,pose significant threats to the secure and stable operation of power systems.This paper presents an early warning method for REPREs based on long short-term memory(LSTM)network and fuzzy logic.First,the warning levels of REPREs are defined by assessing the control costs of various power control measures.Then,the next 4-h power support capability of external grid is estimated by a tie line power predictionmodel,which is constructed based on the LSTMnetwork.Finally,considering the risk attitudes of dispatchers,fuzzy rules are employed to address the boundary value attribution of the early warning interval,improving the rationality of power ramp event early warning.Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method can generate reasonable early warning levels for REPREs,guiding decision-making for control strategy.

Effectiveness of Combined Application of Shock Index and Early Warning Scoring System in Patients with Acute Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage

Objective:To explore the effect of the combined application of the Shock Index(SI)and the Early Warning Score(EWS)in patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding.Methods:Seventy patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding admitted to a hospital from June 2022 to May 2024 were selected and randomly divided into two groups:the control group and the observation group,with 35 patients in each group.The control group received conventional emergency care measures,while the observation group received SI combined with NEWS emergency care measures.The treatment effects in both groups were compared.Results:The observation group had shorter waiting times for consultation(4.45±1.59 minutes),intravenous access establishment(6.79±2.52 minutes),hemostasis time(4.41±1.52 hours),and hospital stays(8.39±2.13 days)compared to the control group,which had times of 5.46±1.34 minutes,8.41±2.16 minutes,5.16±1.47 hours,and 10.26±2.98 days,respectively.The differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).Before management,there were no significant differences in the levels of hemoglobin,prealbumin,and serum protein between the two groups(P>0.05).However,after systematic emergency management,the serum indexes in both groups significantly improved,with the observation group showing greater improvement than the control group,and these differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).In the observation group,only one case of cardiovascular complications occurred during the rescue period,with an incidence rate of 2.86%.In contrast,the control group experienced eight cases of complications,including hemorrhagic shock,anemia,multi-organ failure,cardiovascular complications,and gastrointestinal rebleeding,with an incidence rate of 22.85%.The difference between the groups was statistically significant(P<0.05).Conclusion:The application of SI combined with EWS emergency care measures in patients with acute gastrointestinal hemorrhage can effectively improve serum indexes,shorten resuscitation time and hospital stay,and reduce the risk of complications such as hemorrhagic shock,anemia,infection,multi-organ failure,cardiovascular complications,acute renal failure,and gastrointestinal rebleeding.This approach has positive clinical application value.

The Application of China's High Speed Railway Earthquake Early Warning System in Jakarta-Bandung HSR

Earthquake has a significant impact on operation safety of the high speed railway,and for Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Railway(HSR)in Indonesia where it is earthquake-prone,it is necessary to establish an earthquake early warning system to strengthen its earthquake resistance.Based on the principle and technical characteristics of China's high speed railway earthquake early warning system and combining the actual situations of Jakarta-Bandung HSR in Indonesia,this paper describes how to implement China's high speed railway earthquake early warning system in Jakarta-Bandung HSR.It focuses on optimizations in environmental adaptation design and seismic network interface design,earthquake attenuation model parameter adjustment and terminal software interface adjustment,so as to make the system better suit the local situations,and meet operation requirements and guarantee safe operation of Jakarta-Bandung HSR.

An Introductory Overview of Earthquake Early Warning

Earthquake early warning(EEW)is discriminated from earthquake prediction by using initial seismic waves to predict the severity of ground motion and issue the warning information to potential affected area.The warning information is useful to mitigate the disaster and decrease the losses of life and economy.We reviewed the development history of EEW worldwide and summarized the methodologies using in different systems.Some new sensors came and are coming into EEW giving more developing potential to future implementation.The success of earthquake disaster mitigation relies on the cooperation of the whole society.

A new early warning method for dam displacement behavior based on non-normal distribution function

Traditional methods for early warning of dam displacements usually assume that residual displacements follow a normal distribution.This assumption deviates from the reality,thereby affecting the reliability of early warning results and leading to misjudgments of dam displacement behavior.To solve this problem,this study proposed an early warning method using a non-normal distribution function.A new early warning index was developed using cumulative distribution function(CDF)values.The method of kernel density estimation was used to calculate the CDF values of residual displacements at a single point.The copula function was used to compute the CDF values of residual displacements at multiple points.Numerical results showed that,with residual displacements in a non-normal distribution,the early warning method proposed in this study accurately reflected the dam displacement behavior and effectively reduced the frequency of false alarms.This method is expected to aid in the safe operation of dams.

A new early-warning prediction system for monitoring shear force of fault plane in the active fault

The most common method used to describe earthquake activity is based on the changes in physical parameters of the earth＇s surface such as displacement of active fault and seismic wave.However,such approach is not successful in forecasting the movement behaviors of faults.In the present study,a new mechanical model of fault activity,considering the shear strength on the fault plane and the influence of the resistance force,is established based on the occurrence condition of earthquake.A remote real-time monitoring system is correspondingly developed to obtain the changes in mechanical components within fault.Taking into consideration the local geological conditions and the history of fault activity in Zhangjiakou of China,an active fault exposed in the region of Zhangjiakou is selected to be directly monitored by the real-time monitoring technique.A thorough investigation on local fault structures results in the selection of two suitable sites for monitoring potential active tectonic movements of Zhangjiakou fault.Two monitoring curves of shear strength,recorded during a monitoring period of 6 months,turn out to be steady,which indicates that the potential seismic activities hardly occur in the adjacent region in the near future.This monitoring technique can be used for early-warning prediction of the movement of active fault,and can help to further gain an insight into the interaction between fault activity and relevant mechanisms.

Overview of an early warning system for Glacial Lake outburst flood risk mitigation in Dudh-Koshi Basin, Nepal

Natural disasters inflict severe damage on almost the entire spectrum of social and natural habitats. This ranges from housing and shelter, water, food, health, sanitation to information and communication networks, supply of power and energy,transportation infrastructure, and others. Nepal is a risk prone country for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood(GLOF). GLOFs exist as major challenges as they repeatedly cause a heavy toll of life and property. During such a disaster, major challenges are indeed the protection of life, property and vital life-supporting infrastructure. Any delay or laxity in disaster relief can escalate the magnitude of distress for the victims. Thus, rather than trying to take curative measures, it is better to minimize the impacts of GLOF. These measures subsequently help in reducing the magnitude of death and casualties due to a GLOF event. This reduction of impact is often achieved by optimizing preventive measures. For applying necessary deterrent measures, it is essential to disseminate information about the danger beforehand. Early Warning System(EWS) is an important step for such information dissemination for GLOF disaster management and helps to anticipate the risk of disaster and disseminate information to lives at risk. It is impossible and impractical to reduce all GLOF risks, but it is possible to reduce several impacts of a GLOF through the implementation of the EWS. This paper presents the design and implementation of an EWS for monitoring potential outbursts of a glacier lake in the Dudh-Koshi Basin, Nepal.

Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC)

Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload.In addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators.Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations.Thus,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC.In this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework.We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system.We selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–2023.We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some extent.The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin.From 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators,we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin.Overall,the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future.This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance,especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.

Design and Availability Research of a Flammable and Explosive Volatiles Monitoring and Early Warning System (FEVMEW) for the Bus Crowded Places

In order to reduce the arson or accidental fire losses, we developed a gas sensitive detector used for the rapid detection and early warning of flammables in crowded places such as buses. A MEMS (Micro-Electro-Mechanical System) based thin film semiconductor was fabricated as the gas sensor. To obtain the target gas selective response, the surface of the sensitive film was modified with highly active metal catalytic nano-particles. Thus the anti-interference ability was improved and the false alarm rate was effectively reduced. Furthermore, the modular embedded system for information acquisition and transmission was developed. Supported by the Airflow Precision control system (APs), the rapid warning of volatile gas of flammable substances was realized. Experiments showed that RAs has satisfied selectivity to volatiles of usual flammable liquid, such as the output voltage reaches 3 V (0 - 3.3 V). With simulation about the actual installation state in bus, MWs sounds an alarm at 2 minutes after splashing 50 mL 92# petrol to the floor. For the last two years, FEVMEW has been integrated into more than 4000 buses in Hefei. This design has been proved feasible according to the actual operation.

Overview of China’s Emergency Early Warning in 2021

This research uses the 59th-70th national emergency early warning information release monthly report data of China to study the total number of emergency early warnings in 2021, the general situation of early warning categories and regional distribution differences. The results show that: 1) there are 387,075 early warning information in China in 2021, and the early warning has obvious seasonality. 2) The issuance of early warnings is obviously related to the seasons, and the issuance of early warnings varies from month to month. The issuance of one kind of early warning can easily lead to the issuance of another kind of early warning, that is, the early warnings are closely related, and some specific disasters are easy to cause secondary disasters. 3) There are differences in the number of early warnings in each province. 4) The reason for the peak of early warnings in July and the large proportion of red early warnings in Henan Province is the sudden heavy rainstorm in Henan Province in July;the physical mechanism of this heavy rainstorm is sufficient water vapor, strong uplifting movement and stable situation and a long existence time.

WebGIS-based Early Warning System of Farmland Environmental Pollution Caused by Livestock Waste

[Objective]The paper was to quickly get the real-time dynamic status of regional farmland environmental pollution caused by livestock wastes.[Method] With WebGIS as spatial information platform,the network and digital early warning system of farmland environmental pollution caused by livestock wastes was established.[Result] The system realized the functions such as livestock wastes calculation,livestock information query and analysis,nitrogen load quantity estimation of livestock waste,early warning of farmland environmental pollution caused by livestock wastes and visual display of result.[Conclusion] The paper provided scientific basis for the relevant research on farmland environmental pollution caused by livestock wastes.

Research on Monitoring and Early-warning Standards of Ancient and Famous Trees Protection in the Humble Administrator's Garden

Based on the current situation and symptoms of the trees' growth in the Humble Administrator's Garden,this paper put forward corresponding monitoring and early-warning standards and technical measures of the ancient and famous trees protection in the Humble Administrator's Garden specifically.The aim of doing this is to establish a scientific basis for the protection of the ancient and famous trees in the Humble Administrator's Garden by setting up systematic fundamental data,dynamic protection standard grades and technique measures of protecting the trees.The main symptom of trees in the Humble Administrator's Garden is the erosion and decay of the tree trunks.Fifteen tree trunks need technical protection,which holds 65.22% of the total sum of trees in the Humble Administrator's Garden.Therefore,much more emphasis should be paid in strengthening technical protection procedures of monitoring and early warning of the tree trunks in the future protection of the ancient and famous trees in the garden.Besides,the rejuvenation technique of rooting zone and rooting system,tree pruning technique as well as tree supporting measures according to the specific condition and symptom of the trees should be concerned with in order to protect the ancient and famous trees in the Humble Administrator's Garden in a more scientific and effective way.