Estimation of Landfill Gas and Its Renewable Energy Potential from the Polesgo Controlled Landfill Using First-Order Decay (FOD) Models

Methane generation in landfills and its inadequate management represent the major avoidable source of anthropogenic methane today. This paper models methane production and the potential resources expected (electrical energy production and potential carbon credits from avoided CH4 emissions) from its proper management in a municipal solid waste landfill located in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. The modeling was carried out using two first-order decay (FOD) models (LandGEM V3.02 and SWANA) using parameters evaluated on the basis of the characteristics of the waste admitted to the landfill and weather data for the site. At the same time, production data have been collected since 2016 in order to compare them with the model results. The results obtained from these models were compared to experimental one. For the simulation of methane production, the SWANA model showed better consistency with experimental data, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.59 compared with the LandGEM model, which obtained a coefficient of 0.006. Thus, despite the low correlation values linked to the poor consistency of experimental data, the SWANA model models methane production much better than the LandGEM model. Thus, despite the low correlation values linked to the poor consistency of the experimental data, the SWANA model models methane production much better than the LandGEM V3.02 model. It was noted that the poor consistency of the experimental data justifies these low coefficients, and that they can be improved in the future thanks to ongoing in situ measurements. According to the SWANA model prediction, in 27 years of operation a biogas plant with 33% electrical efficiency using biogas from the Polesgo landfill would avoid 1,340 GgCO2e. Also, the evaluation of revenues due to electricity and carbon credit gave a total revenue derived from methane production of US$27.38 million at a cost of US$10.5/tonne CO2e.

Transient response of doubly-curved bio-inspired composite shells resting on viscoelastic foundation subject to blast load using improved first-order shear theory and isogeometric approach

Investigating natural-inspired applications is a perennially appealing subject for scientists. The current increase in the speed of natural-origin structure growth may be linked to their superior mechanical properties and environmental resilience. Biological composite structures with helicoidal schemes and designs have remarkable capacities to absorb impact energy and withstand damage. However, there is a dearth of extensive study on the influence of fiber redirection and reorientation inside the matrix of a helicoid structure on its mechanical performance and reactivity. The present study aimed to explore the static and transient responses of a bio-inspired helicoid laminated composite(B-iHLC) shell under the influence of an explosive load using an isomorphic method. The structural integrity of the shell is maintained by a viscoelastic basis known as the Pasternak foundation, which encompasses two coefficients of stiffness and one coefficient of damping. The equilibrium equations governing shell dynamics are obtained by using Hamilton's principle and including the modified first-order shear theory,therefore obviating the need to employ a shear correction factor. The paper's model and approach are validated by doing numerical comparisons with respected publications. The findings of this study may be used in the construction of military and civilian infrastructure in situations when the structure is subjected to severe stresses that might potentially result in catastrophic collapse. The findings of this paper serve as the foundation for several other issues, including geometric optimization and the dynamic response of similar mechanical structures.

Efficient slope reliability and sensitivity analysis using quantile-based first-order second-moment method

This paper introduces a novel approach for parameter sensitivity evaluation and efficient slope reliability analysis based on quantile-based first-order second-moment method(QFOSM).The core principles of the QFOSM are elucidated geometrically from the perspective of expanding ellipsoids.Based on this geometric interpretation,the QFOSM is further extended to estimate sensitivity indices and assess the significance of various uncertain parameters involved in the slope system.The proposed method has the advantage of computational simplicity,akin to the conventional first-order second-moment method(FOSM),while providing estimation accuracy close to that of the first-order reliability method(FORM).Its performance is demonstrated with a numerical example and three slope examples.The results show that the proposed method can efficiently estimate the slope reliability and simultaneously evaluate the sensitivity of the uncertain parameters.The proposed method does not involve complex optimization or iteration required by the FORM.It can provide a valuable complement to the existing approximate reliability analysis methods,offering rapid sensitivity evaluation and slope reliability analysis.

Euler’s First-Order Explicit Method–Peridynamic Differential Operator for Solving Population Balance Equations of the Crystallization Process

Using Euler’s first-order explicit(EE)method and the peridynamic differential operator(PDDO)to discretize the time and internal crystal-size derivatives,respectively,the Euler’s first-order explicit method–peridynamic differential operator(EE–PDDO)was obtained for solving the one-dimensional population balance equation in crystallization.Four different conditions during crystallization were studied:size-independent growth,sizedependent growth in a batch process,nucleation and size-independent growth,and nucleation and size-dependent growth in a continuous process.The high accuracy of the EE–PDDO method was confirmed by comparing it with the numerical results obtained using the second-order upwind and HR-van methods.The method is characterized by non-oscillation and high accuracy,especially in the discontinuous and sharp crystal size distribution.The stability of the EE–PDDO method,choice of weight function in the PDDO method,and optimal time step are also discussed.

First-order quantum phase transition and entanglement in the Jaynes-Cummings model with a squeezed light

We study the quantum phase transition and entanglement in the Jaynes-Cummings model with squeezed light,utilize a special transformation method to obtain the analytical ground state of the model within the near-resonance regime,and numerically verify the validity of the analytical ground state.It is found that the ground state exhibits a first-order quantum phase transition at the critical point linearly induced by squeezed light,and the ground state entanglement reaches its maximum when the qubit-field coupling strength is large enough at the critical point.

采用STAMP-24Model的多组织事故分析

安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。

基于改进24Model-ISM-SNA建筑工人不安全行为关联路径研究

建筑施工现场环境复杂,为有效控制不安全行为发生,基于行为安全“2-4”模型对360份具有代表性的建筑安全事故调查报告进行分析,提取出22个不安全行为的主要影响因素。利用灰色关联分析方法(GRA)改进的集成ISM-SNA模型,将不安全行为风险因素划分为表层、过渡层与深层,然后对风险因素进行可视化分析、中心度分析及凝聚子群分析,揭示了各致因因素间的关联关系和传导路径。结果表明,建筑工人不安全行为影响因素可划分成7级3阶的多级递阶结构,安全意识、现场监管、外部环境是建筑工人不安全行为的关键影响因素,同时现场监管和隐患排查到位能有效降低不安全行为的发生。

基于24Model-D-ISM的地铁站火灾疏散影响因素研究

为预防地铁站火灾事故,深入了解地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素间的内在联系与层次结构,基于第6版“2-4”模型(24Model)分析63起地铁站火灾疏散事故,充分考虑各个因素之间的交互作用,提取19个影响地铁站人员疏散的关键因素,建立地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素指标体系;采用算子客观赋权法(C-OWA)改进决策试验与评价实验法(DEMATEL),确定地铁站火灾人员疏散的重要影响因素;在此基础上,采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析各个因素间的层次结构及相互作用路径,构建地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素的多级递阶结构模型。研究结果表明:疏散引导、恐慌从众行为、人员拥挤为地铁站火灾人员疏散的关键影响因素;地铁站火灾人员疏散受表层因素、中间层因素、深层因素共同作用的影响,其中,疏散教育与培训、设施维护与检查、疏散预案等因素是根源影响因素,重视根源影响因素的改善有利于从本质上预防和控制事故的发生。

First-order primal-dual algorithm for sparse-view neutron computed tomography-based three-dimensional image reconstruction

Neutron computed tomography(NCT)is widely used as a noninvasive measurement technique in nuclear engineering,thermal hydraulics,and cultural heritage.The neutron source intensity of NCT is usually low and the scan time is long,resulting in a projection image containing severe noise.To reduce the scanning time and increase the image reconstruction quality,an effective reconstruction algorithm must be selected.In CT image reconstruction,the reconstruction algorithms can be divided into three categories:analytical algorithms,iterative algorithms,and deep learning.Because the analytical algorithm requires complete projection data,it is not suitable for reconstruction in harsh environments,such as strong radia-tion,high temperature,and high pressure.Deep learning requires large amounts of data and complex models,which cannot be easily deployed,as well as has a high computational complexity and poor interpretability.Therefore,this paper proposes the OS-SART-PDTV iterative algorithm,which uses the ordered subset simultaneous algebraic reconstruction technique(OS-SART)algorithm to reconstruct the image and the first-order primal–dual algorithm to solve the total variation(PDTV),for sparse-view NCT three-dimensional reconstruction.The novel algorithm was compared with other algorithms(FBP,OS-SART-TV,OS-SART-AwTV,and OS-SART-FGPTV)by simulating the experimental data and actual neutron projection experiments.The reconstruction results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the FBP,OS-SART-TV,OS-SART-AwTV,and OS-SART-FGPTV algorithms in terms of preserving edge structure,denoising,and suppressing artifacts.

24Model与LCM原因因素定义对比研究

为探究损失致因模型(LCM)原因因素定义与事故致因“2-4”模型(24Model)存在的异同和优缺点,梳理2个模型各层面原因和结果的定义,对比定义内容及其对事故原因分析等安全实务的指导作用,并以一起瓦斯爆炸事故为例加以实证分析,获得二者分析结果之间的差异。研究结果表明:LCM是首个将管理因素纳入事故致因分析的一维事件序列模型,可明确各层面原因因素的定义和因素间的逻辑关系,但部分定义存在交叉重复的问题,并没有揭示安全工作指导思想等深层次事故致因因素;24Model作为系统性事故致因模型,对各类因素的定义均以组织为主体,描述事件、事故、安全的概念内涵,划分个体安全动作、安全能力和组织安全管理体系的类别并给出含义解析,探究组织安全文化层面的问题并以32个元素体现;2个模型的事故原因分析方法均建立在对各层级原因因素定义的基础上,并适用于模型理论体系本身。

Development of a first-order kinetics-based model for the adsorption of nickel onto peat

The use of peat for the removal of nickel from aqueous solutions has been investigated at various pH values by means of static conditions. The present research shows that the ability of Ni to bind to peat increases as the pH value increases. The solutions reach adsorption equilibrium rapidly. A reasonable kinetic model, first-order in nickel concentration, has been developed and fitted to the adsorption of nickel （Ⅱ） onto peat. The first-order model provides a good correlation to the experimental data. The characteristic parameters of the Langmuir isotherm were determined at various temperatures. The relationship between kinetics and equilibrium isotherms was established through the forward- and backward-rate-constants, k~ and k2, and the equilibrium constant, K.

Visualizing and witnessing first-order coherence,Bell nonlocality and purity by using a quantum steering ellipsoid in the non-inertial frame

A quantum steering ellipsoid(QSE)is a visual characterization for bipartite qubit systems,and it is also a novel avenue for describing and detecting quantum correlations.Herein,by using a QSE,we visualize and witness the first-order coherence(FOC),Bell nonlocality(BN)and purity under non-inertial frames.Also,the collective influences of the depolarizing channel and the non-coherence-generating channel(NCGC)on the FOC,BN and purity are investigated in the QSE formalism.The results reveal that the distance from the center of the QSE to the center of the Bloch sphere visualizes the FOC of a bipartite system,the lengths of the QSE semiaxis visualize the BN,and the QSE's shape and position dominate the purity of the system.One can capture the FOC,BN and purity via the shape and position of the QSE in the non-inertial frame.The depolarizing channel(the NCGC)gives rise to the shrinking and degradation(the periodical oscillation)of the QSE.One can use these traits to visually characterize and detect the FOC,BN and purity under the influence of external noise.Of particular note is that the condition for the QSE to achieve the center of the Bloch sphere cannot be influenced by the depolarizing channel and the NCGC.The characterization shows that the conditions for the disappearance of the FOC are invariant under the additional influences of the depolarizing channel and NCGC.

Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

MODELS:a six-step framework for developing an infectious disease model

Since the COVID-19 pandemic began,a plethora of modeling studies relatedto COVID-19 have been released.While some models stand out due to their innovative approaches,others are flawed in their methodology.To assist novices,frontline healthcare workers,and public health policymakers in navigating the complex landscape of these models,we introduced a structured framework named MODELS.This framework is designed to detail the essential steps and considerations for creating a dependable epidemic model,offering direction to researchers engaged in epidemic modeling endeavors.

Anisotropic time-dependent behaviors of shale under direct shearing and associated empirical creep models

Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°),under multiple levels of direct shearing for the first time.The results show that the anisotropic creep of shale exhibits a significant stress-dependent behavior.Under a low shear stress,the creep compliance of shale increases linearly with the logarithm of time at all bedding orientations,and the increase depends on the bedding orientation and creep time.Under high shear stress conditions,the creep compliance of shale is minimal when the bedding orientation is 0°,and the steady-creep rate of shale increases significantly with increasing bedding orientations of 30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The stress-strain values corresponding to the inception of the accelerated creep stage show an increasing and then decreasing trend with the bedding orientation.A semilogarithmic model that could reflect the stress dependence of the steady-creep rate while considering the hardening and damage process is proposed.The model minimizes the deviation of the calculated steady-state creep rate from the observed value and reveals the behavior of the bedding orientation's influence on the steady-creep rate.The applicability of the five classical empirical creep models is quantitatively evaluated.It shows that the logarithmic model can well explain the experimental creep strain and creep rate,and it can accurately predict long-term shear creep deformation.Based on an improved logarithmic model,the variations in creep parameters with shear stress and bedding orientations are discussed.With abovementioned findings,a mathematical method for constructing an anisotropic shear creep model of shale is proposed,which can characterize the nonlinear dependence of the anisotropic shear creep behavior of shale on the bedding orientation.

Investigation of magnetization reversal and domain structures in perpendicular synthetic antiferromagnets by first-order reversal curves and magneto-optical Kerr effect

Perpendicular synthetic-antiferromagnet(p-SAF) has broad applications in spin-transfer-torque magnetic random access memory and magnetic sensors. In this study, the p-SAF films consisting of (Co/Ni)3]/Ir(tIr)/[(Ni/Co)3are fabricated by magnetron sputtering technology. We study the domain structure and switching field distribution in p-SAF by changing the thickness of the infrared space layer. The strongest exchange coupling field(Hex) is observed when the thickness of Ir layer(tIr) is 0.7 nm and becoming weak according to the Ruderman–Kittel–Kasuya–Yosida-type coupling at 1.05 nm,2.1 nm, 4.55 nm, and 4.9 nm in sequence. Furthermore, the domain switching process between the upper Co/Ni stack and the bottom Co/Ni stack is different because of the antiferromagnet coupling. Compared with ferromagnet coupling films, the antiferromagnet samples possess three irreversible reversal regions in the first-order reversal curve distribution.With tIrincreasing, these irreversible reversal regions become denser and smaller. The results from this study will help us understand the details of the magnetization reversal process in the p-SAF.

Development and validation of a prediction model for early screening of people at high risk for colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not optimistic.In China,the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically,but few studies have been conducted.Therefore,it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for CRC.AIM To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC.METHODS Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital,China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.The cohort comprised 64448 individuals,of which,530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect data.Of 63918,7607(11.9%)individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC,and 56311(88.1%)were not.The participants were randomly allocated to a training set(44743)or validation set(19175).The discriminatory ability,predictive accuracy,and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves and by decision curve analysis.Finally,the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling technique.RESULTS Seven variables,including demographic,lifestyle,and family history information,were examined.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR):1.03,95%confidence interval(CI):1.02-1.03,P<0.001],body mass index(BMI)(OR:1.07,95%CI:1.06-1.08,P<0.001),waist circumference(WC)(OR:1.03,95%CI:1.02-1.03 P<0.001),lifestyle(OR:0.45,95%CI:0.42-0.48,P<0.001),and family history(OR:4.28,95%CI:4.04-4.54,P<0.001)were the most significant predictors of high-risk CRC.Healthy lifestyle was a protective factor,whereas family history was the most significant risk factor.The area under the curve was 0.734(95%CI:0.723-0.745)for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735(95%CI:0.728-0.742)for the training set ROC curve.The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.CONCLUSION The early-screening nomogram model for CRC prediction in high-risk populations developed in this study based on age,BMI,WC,lifestyle,and family history exhibited high accuracy.

Geostatistical seismic inversion and 3D modelling of metric flow units,porosity and permeability in Brazilian presalt reservoir

Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation of FU away from the well into the whole reservoir grid is commonly a difficult task and using the seismic data as constraints is rarely a subject of study.This paper proposes a workflow to generate numerous possible 3D volumes of flow units,porosity and permeability below the seismic resolution limit,respecting the available seismic data at larger scales.The methodology is used in the Mero Field,a Brazilian presalt carbonate reservoir located in the Santos Basin,who presents a complex and heterogenic geological setting with different sedimentological processes and diagenetic history.We generated metric flow units using the conventional core analysis and transposed to the well log data.Then,given a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm,the seismic data and the well log statistics,we simulated acoustic impedance,decametric flow units(DFU),metric flow units(MFU),porosity and permeability volumes in the metric scale.The aim is to estimate a minimum amount of MFU able to calculate realistic scenarios porosity and permeability scenarios,without losing the seismic lateral control.In other words,every porosity and permeability volume simulated produces a synthetic seismic that match the real seismic of the area,even in the metric scale.The achieved 3D results represent a high-resolution fluid flow reservoir modelling considering the lateral control of the seismic during the process and can be directly incorporated in the dynamic characterization workflow.

耦合优化蚁群算法与P-Median model的选址模型设计

为节省城建部门对于公共体育设施的投入成本以及提高城市人民生活质量,以运动场所优化选址为例,提出一种新型设施选址模型。该模型主要基于P-Median model(最小化阻抗模型)根据需求点数量从全部候选设施选址中选择设施空间位置,让用户达到离自己最近设施距离成本总和最小的目的,对选址的基本原则和实际情况提出要求,构造目标函数用于优化后蚁群算法求解进行选址工作。优化蚁群算法实现基于Python语言模块,通过改进蚁群原始信息素,提升原有算法的收敛速度,求出目标函数最优解,可以很好地模拟对于运动场所的选址。用二者耦合进行优势互补所设计的选址模型来搜寻研究区蚁群信息素浓度残留最大的栅格像元,从而确定未被已有设施点服务半径覆盖的最佳设施点建立位置。实验结果表明,该新型选址模型相较于最小化阻抗模型与最大化覆盖模型,新增优化设施点使整体服务半径覆盖率分别高出10.42%和6.95%,适合求解较为精确且小规模空间下的选址问题。

Toward a Learnable Climate Model in the Artificial Intelligence Era

Artificial intelligence(AI)models have significantly impacted various areas of the atmospheric sciences,reshaping our approach to climate-related challenges.Amid this AI-driven transformation,the foundational role of physics in climate science has occasionally been overlooked.Our perspective suggests that the future of climate modeling involves a synergistic partnership between AI and physics,rather than an“either/or”scenario.Scrutinizing controversies around current physical inconsistencies in large AI models,we stress the critical need for detailed dynamic diagnostics and physical constraints.Furthermore,we provide illustrative examples to guide future assessments and constraints for AI models.Regarding AI integration with numerical models,we argue that offline AI parameterization schemes may fall short of achieving global optimality,emphasizing the importance of constructing online schemes.Additionally,we highlight the significance of fostering a community culture and propose the OCR(Open,Comparable,Reproducible)principles.Through a better community culture and a deep integration of physics and AI,we contend that developing a learnable climate model,balancing AI and physics,is an achievable goal.