China’s Proactive Fiscal Policy

In contrast to the traditional Western approach to macro-fiscal management,China’s proactive fiscal policy is founded on a people-centered development philosophy and,with distinctive Chinese characteristics,is a significant policy innovation of macroeconomic management in the Chinese modernization.Although there are notable distinctions between the Western“Keynesian”and the“nonKeynesian”schools of thought,both of these approaches’core policy goals and methodological roots are the same,composing the traditional Western macro-fiscal approach.This approach faces increasing real dilemmas.China’s proactive fiscal policy,however,places greater emphasis on future potential growth rates in addition to equilibrium between supply and demand,achieving a fiscal policy transformation with a new approach.In this paper we argue that with such a new approach,China should reconsider the nature and reasonable level of the fiscal deficit,the function and risk assessment criteria of government debt,the scope and effects of reductions in taxes and fees,its approach and focus of demand management,and the costs and resulting efficiencies of policies in order to develop a new fiscal policy paradigm that is more in line with its stated goals.

气候变化对农业经济韧性的影响效应研究——财政支农的调节作用

在气候变化加剧的现实背景下,有效发挥财政支农政策效能,提升农业经济韧性水平对我国实现农业高质量发展具有重要意义。本文基于2004—2020年全国30个省(自治区、直辖市,不包括香港地区、澳门地区、台湾地区和西藏)共1326个县级行政区的面板数据,采用固定效应模型和调节效应模型实证分析气候变化对农业经济韧性的影响,并检验财政支农在其中的调节作用。研究发现,以升温为主要特征的气候变化不利于提升农业经济韧性,而财政支农可以有效缓解气候变化对农业经济韧性的负面影响。异质性分析进一步表明,粮食主销区和低收入地区农业经济韧性受气候变化的影响更为明显。财政支农的调节作用也具有明显异质性,财政支农在粮食主产区和低收入地区发挥了更显著的调节作用。据此,建议积极落实农业经济韧性提升措施,强化财政政策在农业气候适应与减缓措施上的支持力度,实施区域差异化的农业经济韧性提升方案,从而缓解气候变化的不利影响,提升我国农业经济韧性。

Comparative Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability of China and the US

The fiscal sustainability of China and the United States is of major concern globally. Based on comparative data analysis, this paper reveals that the government debt level of both countries is within the normal range. Robust growth prospects of both countries will also vigorously support their future mitigation of government debt level. Comparatively speaking, China＇s government debt level is healthy and, despite extensive concerns, even its local government debt is not very high. The assessment that China may encounter a crisis is not supported by evidence. Yet in the long run, both countries will face pressures from increased fiscal spending on elder care and healthcare stemming from an ageing population, which will threaten their fiscal sustainability. These challenges require both countries to speed up reforms of elder care and healthcare. Specifically, China needs to focus on elder care reforms and the US should attach more importance to healthcare reforms.

武汉市公立医院经济运行状况分析

[目的]分析武汉市公立医院2019-2022年经济运行情况及其存在的问题,为公立医院改革和高质量发展提供参考。[方法]利用武汉市2019-2022年卫生健康年报数据,对武汉市公立医院经济运行情况进行描述性分析。[结果]2019-2022年,公立医院总体收支盈余为正,财政补助收入占比提升15.35个百分点,医疗收入总额下降16.75个百分点;医院人员费用支出和占比逐年上升,折旧费用和其他费用年均增长16.42%和11.72%;公立医院运营效益和效率指标显著下降,运营成本不断上升;2019-2022年,医疗盈余由10.24亿元降为-9.22亿元,医院医疗亏损率从14.29%增至76.47%。[结论]武汉市公立医院总体上收支平衡,但面临较大经济运行压力,偿债能力和成本管控能力减弱,医疗亏损持续加大。建议完善公立医院补偿机制,加强公立医院运营管理,优化区域医疗资源规划。

横向转移支付制度化的难点甄别——基于德国取消横向转移支付案例分析

德国横向转移支付制度在实施50余年后被纵向转移支付取代,反映了德国横向转移支付制度的三个弊端:以部分州的福利损失为代价,对地方政府产生逆向激励;鼓励财政轻率行为,增加地方债务负担;实现区域均衡发展的效果并不突出。从德国经验看,我国横向转移支付制度化的现实障碍主要有:法律法规缺位,财政法定困难;制度统筹层级过低,地区间合作意愿不强;制度设计复杂,操作成本高;地区间财力差距过大,基本公共服务均等化难度较高。因此,我国一是要提高政府间财政关系的法治化水平,保障转移支付制度有法可依;二是鉴于横向转移支付具有“政治动员性”色彩,可以阶段性、局部性使用;三是协调区域财政均衡要兼顾公平与效率,避免逆向激励;四是加强中央政府在现有横向转移支付政策执行方面的作用发挥。

人工智能、老龄化与财政可持续性:理论分析与展望

中国已进入深度老龄化阶段,低生育率和寿命延长使得老龄化持续加深。老龄化成为中国人口发展新特征,财政可持续性面临着前所未有的挑战。人工智能作为当今最具变革性的技术之一,在应对老龄化问题、维护财政可持续性方面展现出独特且多元的作用机制。在财政收入端,人工智能主要通过劳动力供给、资本积累、全要素生产率和消费需求四种机制应对老龄化对财政可持续性的影响。在财政支出端,人工智能主要通过社会保障支出、公共服务资源支出和技术创新支出三种机制应对老龄化对财政可持续性的影响。研究从中国财政收支两端深入剖析,旨在揭示人工智能应对中国人口老龄化的作用机制,为缓解老龄化给财政带来的压力、促进中国财政长期稳健运行提供新思路与新动力。

An Empirical Analysis on the Impacting of Fiscal Policy on Haze Governance ：Based on the Data of Anhui Province from 2005 to 2014

为准确把握财政政策对雾霾治理的影响,在确立财政政策投入和雾霾治理产出两个维度的基础上,建立评价指标体系,选取安徽省2 0 0 5 年-2 0 1 4 年评价数据,建立T0 P S IS模型,进行实证评价.结果表明：总体上,安徽省财政政策对雾霾治理影响效应表现逐年削弱的变化特征.其次,分阶段来看,2 0 1 0年以前,安徽省财政政策对雾霾治理的影响出现“W ” 型变化特征,即“削弱-增强-削弱-增强” 的变化.2 0 1 1年-2 0 1 3年财政政策效果快速下降;2 0 1 4年以来,财政政策对雾霾治理的影响有增强的趋势.再次,财政资金使用不科学,技术创新不足一定程度上削弱了财政政策对雾霾治理的影响效应.为进一步增强财政政策对雾霾治理的积极影响,充分发挥财政职能,建议完善财政资金的专项转移支付制度,推进资源税制改革,完善相关财政专项补贴政策,推进财政政策绩效评价.

知识产权保护对全国统一技术大市场建设的影响

知识产权保护有利于促进创新要素畅通流动,为全国统一技术大市场建设注入新动能,而知识产权保护能否以及如何释放技术创新红利成为亟待解决的关键问题。基于2013—2021年中国内地290个城市面板数据,利用固定效应和中介效应模型检验知识产权保护对全国统一技术大市场建设的影响机制。研究发现:①知识产权保护能够显著促进全国统一技术大市场建设,在借助工具变量处理潜在内生性问题以及开展稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立;②知识产权保护对全国统一技术大市场建设存在异质性影响,对中西部区域城市、成渝城市圈、经济不发达城市和资源型城市的影响作用较弱;③机制检验结果表明,知识产权保护通过提升区域创新创业水平和提高政府财政支出偏向对全国统一技术大市场建设产生影响。据此,提出积极推进知识产权保护工作落实、着力提升知识产权转移转化效益、充分激发市场主体创新活力、筑牢消费者合法权益保护屏障的对策建议。

财政激励对企业科技创新的影响研究

科技创新是推动经济和社会发展的重要力量,是引领社会进步的核心竞争力,对企业价值具有多方面的影响。财政在支持科技创新方面,扮演着不可或缺的角色。政府通过财政政策,可以引导资金流向科技创新领域,降低企业的研发成本,保障了科技创新活动的持续进行,这些资金不仅支持了科研项目的研究与开发,还推动了新技术的试验、示范和推广。但存在财政政策支持手段单一等问题,因此文章通过阐明现阶段财政激励企业创新存在的问题,致力于提出切实可行的路径措施,激励企业坚持走好创新发展的康庄大道。

财政收入目标增长率、征税努力与企业创新

作为目标管理责任制的重要组成部分,财政收入目标增长率是理解我国企业经营绩效和创新水平的重要视角。本文利用2008-2022年沪深A股非金融类上市公司数据与政府工作报告中财政收入目标增长率数据,实证考察了财政收入增长目标率对企业创新水平的影响。研究发现,财政收入目标增长率显著抑制了企业创新水平提升,这一抑制效应主要集中在财政收支缺口小的地区、中小型企业以及非高新技术企业。进一步的工具变量检验也支持了上述研究结论。机制分析结果表明,财政收入目标增长率通过加强税收征管抑制了企业创新水平提升。本文对理解企业创新行为的影响因素提供了新视角,为提升企业创新水平、加快推进创新驱动发展战略提供了有益参考。

财政安全视角下有效税率结构变动对财政赤字的冲击

通过改进现有方法重新计算1994—2017年中国资本、劳动、消费平均有效税率,并以此为基础运用SVAR模型考察有效税率结构变动对财政赤字的冲击影响。结果显示:提高消费平均有效税率能够从短期和长期改善我国财政状况,提高资本平均有效税率仅能在短期内改善我国财政状况,提高劳动平均有效税率在短期和长期均不能改善我国财政状况。因此,未来我国结构性减税降费可选择的施政策略是:第一,在推动增值税并档降率的同时,需确保增值税平均税率的稳定,改革并完善环境保护税制度;第二,提高对环境和身体有害商品的消费税税率,将更多高档物品和服务纳入消费税的课征范围;第三,通过扶持老龄产业发展、提高社会保障水平增强老年人的消费能力;第四,完善现行个人所得税制度并改善征管条件,扩大对个人资本所得课税并考虑增加对自然人财富存量的课税;第五,清理当前复杂的涉企资本要素课税税收优惠政策,堵塞税收漏洞,建立规范、有序、合理的税收优惠体系。

Fiscal Expenditure and Income Gap between Urban and Rural Residents: An Empirical Study Based on Malmquist Index and Spatial Econometrics

Based on the analysis methods of non-parametric Malmquist index and spatial econometrics as well as the provincial panel data in 2007-2010, this paper estimates the efficiency of fiscal expenditure from local governments in china in terms of reducing the income gap between urban and rural residents for the first time and evaluates the spatial correlation and heterogeneity of this efficiency. The results have shown that the fiscal expenditure of most provinces is of low efficiency in reducing the income gap between urban and rural residents, and the expenditure efficiency of local governments is not relevant to their levels of economic development. Besides, the efficiency on reducing the urban-rural income gap between different regions of China has a tendency of convergence. But this is mainly reflected inside the regional economic belt. There is significant difference between the efficiency of each economic belt. The central region has the highest efficiency in a rising trend, the western region has the lowest efficiency in a downward trend, while the eastern region is relatively stable.

The Changes of Fiscal Agriculture-Supporting Expenditure and Farmers' Income Based on Grey Correlation Theory

According to the relevant data of China Statistical Yearbook and Chinese Rural Statistical Yearbook in the year of 2009,the changes of grey correlation degree of farmers' net income,various items of incomes,national gross agriculture-supporting expenditure and various items of expenditures,farmers' net income and various items of fiscal agriculture-supporting expenditure in the Eighth Five-Year Plan,Ninth Five-Year Plan and Tenth Five-Year Plan by using grey correlation degree and the by choosing seven indicators covering income from wage and salary,income from household business,transfer income and property income,agricultural production-supporting expenditure,agricultural basic construction expenditure,expenses of three items of agricultural technology and the fee of rural relief.The results show that the grey correlation degree of each time period and household net income shows the downward trend;from overall perspective,the grey correlation degree of national gross agriculture-supporting expenditure,agricultural basic construction expenditure and agricultural production-supporting expenditure shows the descending trend;the grey correlation degree of fiscal agricultural supporting expenditure and the expenditure of three items of agricultural technology and fee of rural relief show the upward trend;the influence of agricultural production-supporting expenditure on farmers' income shows downward trend;the influence of agricultural basic construction on farmers' income shows upward trend;the fee of rural relief play an active role in the promoting the farmers' income increase;the role played by fee of rural relief in promoting farmers' income increase should be further increased;the increase of farmers' income shows great reliance on agricultural science and technology.In the end,the relevant suggestions on establishing stable increase mechanism of fiscal agricultural support and insisting on the dynamic adjustment of the structure of fiscal agricultural supporting capital are put forward.

RECURSIVE UTILITY,PRODUCTIVE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND OPTIMAL FISCAL POLICY

This paper employs a stochastic endogenous growth model extended to the case of a recursive utility function which can disentangle intertemporal substitution from risk aversion to analyze productive government expenditure and optimal fiscal policy, particularly stresses the importance of factor income. First, the explicit solutions of the central planner＇s stochastic optimization problem are derived, the growth maximizing and welfare-maximizing government expenditure policies are obtained and their standing in conflict or coincidence depends upon intertemporal substitution. Second, the explicit solutions of the representative individual＇s stochastic optimization problem which permits to tax on capital income and labor income separately are derived ,and it is found that the effect of risk on growth crucially depends on the degree of risk aversion,the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the capital income share. Finally, a flexible optimal tax policy which can be internally adjusted to a certain extent is derived, and it is found that the distribution of factor income plays an important role in designing the optimal tax policy.

Path Choice and Fiscal Policies of Three Gorges Reservoir in Post-Migration Era

The developmental status of the Three Gorges Reservoir in the post-migration era is expounded.Firstly,positioning of ecological reservoir is incompatible with its development;secondly,adopting the market selection and government-directed migration mode;thirdly,tough task in the post-migration era;fourthly,prevention of geological disasters and environmental management.After the analyses,the adoptable approaches for developing the Three Gorges Reservoir are concluded.The approaches cover supporting migrants and trying to stabilize and enrich them;supporting the development of industries around the reservoir;intensifying the construction of ecological environment in the reservoir;and strengthening the support of central fiscal policies.The policies and suggestions on developing the Three Gorges Reservoir from the perspective of fiscal policies are put forward.Firstly,they include the fiscal and tax measures on prompting ecological migration and stabilizing and enriching migrants.The specific measures include the fiscal and tax measures on promoting the employment of migrants;measures on providing social security for migrants;fiscal subsidies and preferential policies and increasing the input on solving the problems left after reconstruction.Secondly,they are the fiscal and tax measures for promoting the industrial development in the reservoir.The specific contents include displaying the functions of industrial fund to optimize the industrial structure of the reservoir;providing preferential policies on taxes to attract capitals and intensifying the strength of local finance.

CHINA'S REGIONAL DISPARITY IN 1981-2000:OPENNESS AND DEVELOPMENT OF NON-STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES AND FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION

While China's economic growth has been impressive since 1978, regional disparity in terms of provincial per capita GDP has been increasing. On the other hand, this rapid but uneven growth was accompanied by China's deepening openness and structural reforms including the development of non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) and fiscal decentralization. Based on quantitative analyses, this paper tries to explore the features of regional disparity in China and the relationships between regional growth and China's openness and economic structure reforms in the period from 1981 to 2000. The paper finds that the catching-up of the coastal region to the initially rich provinces, which are mainly located in inland areas, brought about a convergence of the growth pattern across provinces in the 1980s.The subsequent divergence in the provincial growth rates between the coast and the interior generated an enlarging regional disparity in China in the 1990s. The ever-faster growth in the coastal region was benefited by China's openness and the development of non-state-owned enterprises. The development of non-state-owned enterprises underlies the higher operational efficiency in the coastal region. Additionally, with the insignificant regression results, fiscal decentralization was observed to facilitate faster growth in the coast region. The findings justify the initiative of the 'West Region Development Strategy' and offer some policy implications for China.

Seven Decades of China's Fiscal Modernization

After its founding in 1949,the People’s Republic of China'started to modernize its fiscal system-an essential part of its broader modernization drive.Its unified and wellfunctioning fiscal system supported the stability of the nascent government,and helped stabilize the economy and restore public order after then.In the era of the planned economy,public finance in the country was put at the service of economic plans while striving to reach a fiscal equilibrium,which was of great significance at that time.Economic equilibrium,including fiscal,credit and material equilibrium,was perceived as a manifestation of macroeconomic stability.Problems encountered during the era of the planned economy led to the launch of a reform and opening-up program-a brilliant chapter in modern Chinese history.The Third Plenum of the 11th CPC Central Committee marks a brand-new era of reform and opening-up.In this transformative period,China’s fiscal system was initially decentralized to keep abreast of its“planned commodity economy.”After the goal of socialist market economic reform was announced in 1992,China’s fiscal reforms embarked on a fast track.As China'strived to build a public finance system compatible with a socialist market economic system,fiscal reforms took place and fiscal policy played a more important role in macroeconomic regulation.The Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee held in November 2013 set the goal of the reform to establish a modern fiscal system.Afterwards,China deepened its fiscal reforms,focusing on budget management,taxation and reform of central-local fiscal relations.

Fiscal Policy Effect Analysis Based on Agents Response Equilibrium (ARE) Model

Agents response equilibrium (ARE) model has been taken advantage of to build a multi-agent system for analyzing fiscal policy effect. Through establishing various types of economic entities and endowing them with abilities to react and make decision, the whole system will evolve to new conditions in response to policy change. Compared with different scenarios, it can be concluded that when raising taxation ratio, sectoral scale will shrink to some extent. But supported by government expenditure, certain sectors could be kept in comparatively larger production scale.

Modelling the Iranian Petroleum Contract fiscal regime using bargaining game theory to guide contract negotiators

Based on Iran's sixth development plan,the country's oil and gas industry requires an investment of about$200 bn in the next five years to increase production.The Iranian government,to attract and motivate international oil company investment in their oil and gas fields,has presented a new type of risk service contract:the Iranian Petroleum Contract(IPC).This paper summarizes the features of the IPC and presents mathematical models of its fiscal regime for the benefit and guidance of both the National Iranian Oil Company(NIOC)and the contractors.Next,adopting bargaining game theory provides a mathematical model for reaching a win-win situation between the NIOC and the contractor.Finally,a numerical example is given and a sensitivity analysis performed to illustrate the implementation of the proposed models.The contractor and the NIOC may use these models when preparing their proposal and in the course of actual negotiations to calculate their internal rate of return,remuneration fee,and net present value for developing the fields at different conditions of their bargaining power,and derive a logical bargain to protect their best possible interests.

Structural Fiscal Regulation and Choice of Instruments in the New Normal

Based on the overall consideration of individual behaviors of Ricardian and non-Ricardian households, this paper develops a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model to form a relatively systematic research framework for analyzing the economic effects of structural fiscal instruments. Our study findsthat great differences exist in the macroeconomic effects of different fiscal instruments, suggesting that the government should prudently select these fiscal instruments in fiscal macro-control. The simulating results of fiscal shocks show that the effect of tax cut is superior to the effect of increased spending. In the context of slowing economic growth and less potent stimulation policy, the government should transform its previous regulatory approach of fiscal policy and shift from hefty spending stimulus policy to structural tax cuts. This paper believes that China should step up the implementation of public-private partnership, increase its spending on social security, healthcare, pension and public services and facilitate the transition toward a service-based government; and that tax policy should focus on structural tax cuts on consumption to promote the transition of demand structure toward consumption-driven.