Fiscal Expenditure Structure and Environmental Pollution：Empirical Research Based on the Panel Threshold Model

Based on China＇s provincial panel data from 2004 to 2014,the net effect and threshold characteristics of local governments＇ fiscal expenditure structure on environmental pollution were tested with the nonlinear panel threshold model. The results showed that the net effect of fiscal expenditure structure on regional pollution emission intensity had significant inverted V-shaped single threshold characteristics. Besides,the threshold value of economic density was 6. 039 6 million yuan/km^2,and that of population density was 201 people/km^2. That is,the fiscal expenditure structure inclining to productive expenditure was relatively conducive to the promotion of pollution reduction in the areas with low economic density or low population density. The fiscal expenditure structure inclining to non-productive expenditure was relatively conducive to the promotion of pollution reduction in the areas with high economic density or high population density.

Fiscal Expenditure and Income Gap between Urban and Rural Residents: An Empirical Study Based on Malmquist Index and Spatial Econometrics

Based on the analysis methods of non-parametric Malmquist index and spatial econometrics as well as the provincial panel data in 2007-2010, this paper estimates the efficiency of fiscal expenditure from local governments in china in terms of reducing the income gap between urban and rural residents for the first time and evaluates the spatial correlation and heterogeneity of this efficiency. The results have shown that the fiscal expenditure of most provinces is of low efficiency in reducing the income gap between urban and rural residents, and the expenditure efficiency of local governments is not relevant to their levels of economic development. Besides, the efficiency on reducing the urban-rural income gap between different regions of China has a tendency of convergence. But this is mainly reflected inside the regional economic belt. There is significant difference between the efficiency of each economic belt. The central region has the highest efficiency in a rising trend, the western region has the lowest efficiency in a downward trend, while the eastern region is relatively stable.

The size and structure of China’s full-covered fiscal expenditure

According to the standard of IMF(2001),I measured the size from 2003 to 2012 and the structure in 2012 of China’s full-covered fiscal expenditure.Furthermore,I compared the size of China’s fiscal expenditure with OECD countries.I find that as China is going through the“dual-peak”period:the peak of infrastructure development and social welfare expansion,the overall financial expenditure share of GDP has risen from around 31%in 2003,to around 37%in 2012.The ratio of infrastructure expenditure to whole fiscal expenditure is about 39%,while spending on social welfare is only about 41%.

How County-Level Agricultural Loans and Fiscal Expenditure Impact Rural Residents＇ Income in China——An Empirical Study of the Hierarchical Effect by Quantile Regression

Using cross-sectional data from 853 counties in 11 western China provinces, we employ quantile regression （QR） and instrumental variable quantile regression （IVQR） to investigate the hierarchical effect of fiscal expenditure and agricultural loan on rural residents＇ income. We find： （1） the relationship between agricultural loan and income is consistent with the inverted U-shape （Kuznets curve）; （2） the coefficient of quantile regression for rural residents＇ loan gradually decreases; particularly, the impact on the high-income group is insignificant （at 0.90 quantile）; （3） for 0.10 and 0.50 quantile, the increase of fiscal expenditure would hinder rather than promote income growth; （4） the restraining effect becomes more pronounced for the lower groups; in contrast, there is a significant positive relationship between income and fiscal expenditure for 0.90 quantile＇s income group. Implications for government policy formulation are propounded accordingly.

Fiscal Expenditure,Trade Openness and Income Distribution

As a policy tool of income redistribution,fiscal expenditure cannot change the unfair primary distribution caused by trade openness.Moreover,the effect of trade openness on the scale of fiscal expenditure distorts its income redistribution effect.This paper’s empirical analysis shows as follows.(1)Both fiscal expenditure and trade openness expand income gap on the whole.(2)Whatever budget structure and expenditure category,fiscal expenditure cannot affect the scale of trade openness significantly,which means that fiscal expenditure cannot indirectly affect trade openness’income distribution effect through its scale.(3)Trade openness can reduce the scale of public finance expenditure and most categories’fiscal expenditure,which means that trade openness can indirectly affect fiscal expenditure’s income redistribution effect through its scale.Therefore,trade openness will limit and distort fiscal expenditure’s income redistribution effect.While improving the income distribution effect of fiscal expenditure,we should also recognize that this effect is limited.

Features of the Chinese administrative system and the expansion of fiscal expenditures

The overly rapid expansion of fiscal expenditure is an issue the government should take seriously.There are two major causes for the expansion of fiscal expenditure--stress caused by the demand for public goods and stress caused by the features of the administrative system.The influence of the administrative system on fiscal expenditure is demonstrated through the following aspects--the definition of government functions,the development concept of government as well as hierarchies and department setting of governments.The features of China’s administrative system strongly boost the expansion of fiscal expenditure.It is displayed through the concept of rapid development at all government levels,relatively broad definition of government functions,the manifold departments and multi-level settings in the government.The Chinese governments should attach great importance to this issue and take proper measures to relieve the conflict.Some suggested measures include weaving appropriate capital restrictions into government planning,improving the methods of setting targets in planning,building a coordination mechanism for departmental budgets,practicing expenditure budget performance evaluation and releasing the results,as well as adjusting the hierarchical setting of governments.

Sub-Provincial Fiscal Expenditure Decentralization Structure:A Case in China

This paper uses the data from the post-1994 tax reform in China to investigate the vertical and spatial structures of sub-provincial fiscal expenditure decentralization(SPFED)in China.The study shows that,on the whole,SPFED tends to be gradually biased toward the county level,but inter-provincial differences are obvious,and the provincial centralization is more obvious in less economically developed regions.In terms of expenditure items,the province level enjoys a relatively higher level of economic expenditure decentralization(EED),and the county level enjoys a higher level of social expenditure decentralization(SED).In terms of internal structure,the difference in the level of EED shared by the province,prefecture and county levels is relatively smaller and the difference in the level of SED is relatively larger.In terms of spatial structure,in less developed regions,the province level enjoys a higher EED but a lower SED;in developed regions,the prefecture and county levels enjoy a higher EED but the prefecture level enjoys a relatively lower SED.These findings can provide empirical evidence for the reform of the division of power and expenditure responsibility,as well as the governance of sub-provincial governments.

A Study of the Impact of Fiscal Decentralization on the Efficiency of Public Health Expenditure

In this present-day global pandemic that has not been completely resolved,health is a major concern among people,and correspondingly,people are demanding higher standards for public health products and services provided by the government.In this paper,we measure the technical efficiency of public health expenditure in each province by using the data envelopment analysis(DEA)model,and examine the impact of decentralization on the efficiency of public health expenditure under the fiscal decentralization system using the panel data from 31 provinces from 2012-2019 in a panel model subject to fixed effects.

The Changes of Fiscal Agriculture-Supporting Expenditure and Farmers' Income Based on Grey Correlation Theory

According to the relevant data of China Statistical Yearbook and Chinese Rural Statistical Yearbook in the year of 2009,the changes of grey correlation degree of farmers' net income,various items of incomes,national gross agriculture-supporting expenditure and various items of expenditures,farmers' net income and various items of fiscal agriculture-supporting expenditure in the Eighth Five-Year Plan,Ninth Five-Year Plan and Tenth Five-Year Plan by using grey correlation degree and the by choosing seven indicators covering income from wage and salary,income from household business,transfer income and property income,agricultural production-supporting expenditure,agricultural basic construction expenditure,expenses of three items of agricultural technology and the fee of rural relief.The results show that the grey correlation degree of each time period and household net income shows the downward trend;from overall perspective,the grey correlation degree of national gross agriculture-supporting expenditure,agricultural basic construction expenditure and agricultural production-supporting expenditure shows the descending trend;the grey correlation degree of fiscal agricultural supporting expenditure and the expenditure of three items of agricultural technology and fee of rural relief show the upward trend;the influence of agricultural production-supporting expenditure on farmers' income shows downward trend;the influence of agricultural basic construction on farmers' income shows upward trend;the fee of rural relief play an active role in the promoting the farmers' income increase;the role played by fee of rural relief in promoting farmers' income increase should be further increased;the increase of farmers' income shows great reliance on agricultural science and technology.In the end,the relevant suggestions on establishing stable increase mechanism of fiscal agricultural support and insisting on the dynamic adjustment of the structure of fiscal agricultural supporting capital are put forward.

RECURSIVE UTILITY,PRODUCTIVE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND OPTIMAL FISCAL POLICY

This paper employs a stochastic endogenous growth model extended to the case of a recursive utility function which can disentangle intertemporal substitution from risk aversion to analyze productive government expenditure and optimal fiscal policy, particularly stresses the importance of factor income. First, the explicit solutions of the central planner＇s stochastic optimization problem are derived, the growth maximizing and welfare-maximizing government expenditure policies are obtained and their standing in conflict or coincidence depends upon intertemporal substitution. Second, the explicit solutions of the representative individual＇s stochastic optimization problem which permits to tax on capital income and labor income separately are derived ,and it is found that the effect of risk on growth crucially depends on the degree of risk aversion,the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the capital income share. Finally, a flexible optimal tax policy which can be internally adjusted to a certain extent is derived, and it is found that the distribution of factor income plays an important role in designing the optimal tax policy.

Research on the Relationship between Fiscal Expenditure and Educational Equity

Educational equity is important foundation to achieve social equity and to build a harmonious society,and fiscal expenditure is an important means for the government to allocate resources. However,educational inequity is very common in China at present. Through logical analysis of the relationship between the fiscal expenditure and the educational equity in this paper,it is found that the insufficiency of total fiscal expenditure is the main reason for educational inequity at the present stage; the total fiscal expenditure on education shows positive correlation with the educational equity; the optimization degree of the structure of the fiscal expenditure on education shows positive correlation with the educational equity. Therefore,the government shall expand the scale of the fiscal expenditure on education and optimize the structure of the fiscal expenditure on education.

财政透明度与企业避税行为

财政透明度是各级政府维持运行效率和接受社会监督的重要制度保证。以我国2014—2019年A股上市公司作为研究样本,本文实证研究了宏观财政透明度对微观企业避税行为的影响。研究发现:地方政府财政透明度的提升能够有效增加上市公司的主动避税程度。机制检验显示,主结果是由高财政透明度提升财政支出效率和降低财政压力引起的。进一步分析表明:主结果只在民营、高融资约束和有违规记录的子样本中显著,且在政府公共服务支出较高、税收征管强度较低、营商环境较好和市场竞争程度较强的地区作用更强。研究结论丰富了对财政透明度的微观经济后果的认识,进一步拓展了企业避税行为的影响因素分析边界,为充分发挥财政透明的宏微观治理作用以及完善政府财政支出制度建设提供了政策建议。

人工智能、财政支出结构偏向与高质量就业

本文选取2009—2018年省级层面数据,运用面板固定效应模型分析人工智能应用对高质量就业的影响及其传导机制。研究结果表明,人工智能应用总体能够促进高质量就业。调节效应检验结果显示,财政支出能够正向调节人工智能应用对高质量就业的积极影响,并由于财政支出呈现结构偏向的特征,不同性质的财政支出会使人工智能应用程度对高质量就业的影响产生差异。作用机制结果显示,人工智能应用程度会通过产业结构升级间接促进高质量就业。异质性分析结果表明,在地区分布上,人工智能应用程度对高质量就业的积极影响主要体现在东部地区;在时期分布上,在自动化赋能阶段(2009—2014年),人工智能应用程度呈现出对高质量就业的促进作用,而在智能化创新阶段(2015—2018年)则不明显。本文的研究结论为挖掘人工智能应用在中国如何实现更高质量就业,以及探究财政政策导向在其中的作用提供参考。

健康中国背景下的“看病贵”与政府支出——基于资源配置结构性失衡视角的分析

“看病贵”意味着医疗卫生资源转化为医疗卫生服务的成本高,有限资源下医疗卫生服务供给的数量和质量难以满足公众健康需求,从而直接影响健康中国建设。同时,人口快速老龄化带来的医疗卫生需求爆发式增长,将形成医疗卫生体系的额外压力,加剧供求矛盾。基于医疗卫生资源配置结构性失衡视角研究“看病贵”与政府支出之间的关系发现:政府增加卫生支出会通过加剧人力资源配置的结构性失衡而加剧“看病贵”问题;只有将增加政府卫生支出与深化医疗卫生体制改革相结合,才能真正缓解全社会“看病贵”问题。因此,应深化公立医院改革,优化政府对医疗卫生资源的配置方式,加强基层医疗卫生体系建设,重塑医疗卫生服务治理模式,构建专业化治理模式,系统性重构中国医疗卫生领域人才建设。

财政转移支付制度、财政提质增效与经济增长——基于转移支付不确定性的研究

地方政府财政收入的不确定性对其财税行为会造成影响,进而可能影响到财政支出的经济增长效应。使用1998-2007年中国县级层面的财政数据,以2001年民族地区转移支付制度的确立作为工具变量,估算中国地区层面的财政支出乘数,并研究转移支付不确定性对地区层面财政支出乘数的影响,实证结果表明,县级地区转移支付不确定性每增加1个标准差会导致县级地区财政支出乘数减少0.57,专项转移支付不确定性是导致地方政府财政支出乘数下降的主要因素,而一般性转移支付不确定性对地方政府财政支出乘数没有显著影响。机制研究表明,转移支付不确定性通过影响地方政府的财政收支行为,使得地方政府提高当地企业的实际税率,减少了当地企业的产出,进而影响到地区层面产出。

财政科技支出对城市创新的影响:效应与机制

本文以城市群为切入点,运用静态空间杜宾模型、动态空间自回归模型和非对称反应模型,采用2011—2020年我国273个地级市数据,系统考察了财政科技支出对城市创新的影响效应和机制。研究发现:首先,财政科技支出对城市创新有显著且稳健的正向本地效应和空间效应,且城市群城市财政科技支出对城市创新有更高的本地效应和空间效应。其次,创新类别异质性分析结果表明,相较于策略性创新,现有财政科技支出总体围绕提高城市的实质性创新展开,但非城市群城市财政科技支出的实质性创新倾向显著弱于城市群城市;空间关系异质性分析结果表明,“集聚阴影”现象在样本期内显著存在。最后,进一步分析结果显示,从财政科技支出策略互动行为来看,我国地级市间普遍存在财政科技支出策略互动行为,且相较于非城市群城市,城市群城市财政科技支出策略互补程度更低;从财政科技支出策略互动模式来看,我国地级市间财政科技支出策略互动模式为逐顶竞争,且非城市群城市有更为显著的逐顶竞争倾向。本文为推动城市创新提供了理论依据和决策参考。

财政纵向失衡与地方财政支出周期失衡

本文采用1980—2019年数据,在制度分析和事实梳理基础上,运用面板联立方程组探讨了财政纵向失衡对地方财政支出周期失衡的影响及财政收入周期在二者之间的传导机制。研究结果表明:财政纵向失衡加剧地方财政支出周期失衡,财政收入周期是财政纵向失衡影响地方财政支出周期失衡的重要传导机制,但财政纵向失衡对财政收入周期和地方财政支出周期的影响方向相反。分税制改革后,财政纵向失衡对地方财政支出周期失衡的直接影响和间接影响的方向没有变化,但总效应从正向扩张效应转向负向抑制效应。本文的研究结论为缓解财政纵向失衡、提高政府逆周期调节能力提供了决策依据。

气候风险对发展中国家外债水平的影响

外债水平影响国家金融体系稳定,尤其对于发展中国家,然而有关气候风险如何影响发展中国家外债水平的研究文献相对较少。本文使用德国Germanwatch开发的全球气候风险指数,以2007年至2019年全球主要发展中国家为样本,研究气候风险对发展中国家外债水平的影响和作用机制。实证结论表明,第一,气候风险将导致发展中国家公共外债和公共担保私人外债存量、发展中国家长期外债存量显著增加;第二,分位数回归结果显示,极端的气候风险会使发展中国家外债水平显著增加;第三,基于发展中国家样本的调节效应模型显示,整体宏观制度环境好的发展中国家在应对气候风险时外债水平较低;第四,中介效应模型表明,气候风险会导致发展中国家政府财政支出增加,进而引起本国外债的上升。

财政转移支付对新疆经济高质量发展的影响研究

文章从理论层面分析了财政转移支付对新疆经济高质量发展的影响,并运用2013—2022年新疆14个地州市的数据进行实证检验。研究结果表明:转移支付能够直接提高新疆经济高质量发展水平;转移支付通过调整财政支出规模和财政支出结构对新疆经济高质量发展产生间接负向影响,但间接效应有限。异质性分析结果表明:一般性转移支付对新疆经济高质量发展具有积极影响,专项转移支付具有负向影响;转移支付对南疆地区和北疆地区经济高质量发展均呈现显著的正向效应;转移支付对新疆经济高质量发展不同维度的影响效应存在差异。基于此,新疆应尽快出台自治区对下财政转移支付办法,强化对转移支付资金的预算绩效评价,加快构建多元化地方政府考核评价体系,立足新疆资源禀赋,充分发挥转移支付对新疆经济高质量发展的促进作用。

企业科学研究反哺存在最优财政支持模式吗?——基于财政科技支出集中度视角

基于2010—2020年我国省级区域的规上工业企业数据,探讨财政科技支出集中度对企业科学研究反哺的作用效应。结果表明:提升区域财政科技支出集中度,可抑制企业科学研究反哺强度和倾向。分区域角度分析,东部地区反哺强度受到激励,西部地区反哺倾向受到抑制,中部地区反哺倾向虽受到激励但反哺强度受到抑制。调节效应和门槛效应分析显示,提升财政科技支出强度或企业绩效可逆转财政科技支出集中度对反哺强度的抑制性,低企业绩效可加剧财政科技支出集中度对反哺倾向的抑制,而提升企业绩效可减弱上述抑制效应。