Against the background of continued effects of financial crisis,fiscal risks management has become an important but tough issue for most countries in the world.Being a transitional country,China’s fiscal risks have t...Against the background of continued effects of financial crisis,fiscal risks management has become an important but tough issue for most countries in the world.Being a transitional country,China’s fiscal risks have their own characteristics.The evolution of fiscal risks is accompanied with China’s transitional reform and changes of governments’responsibility.The paper aims to track the changing pattern of fiscal risks from a historical respective and summarizes the evolution of fiscal risks management.Then it further analyzes the challenges of managing fiscal risks,and concludes it with recommendations.展开更多
Public finance is the foundation and pillar of state governance,and the core of state governance is public risk management.On one hand,public finance provides public services using public revenue and manages public ri...Public finance is the foundation and pillar of state governance,and the core of state governance is public risk management.On one hand,public finance provides public services using public revenue and manages public risk directly.On the other hand,public fiscal risk can serve as a policy instrument for public risk management.Public risk,public services,public revenue,and fiscal risk mutually reinforce and set each other off.Therefore,striking a balance between fiscal risk and public risk is of great importance.To minimize public risk under the constraint of fiscal risk is the fundamental basis of the assessment of public services.Even though the constraint of fiscal risk may vary with the requirement of minimizing public risk,there is a limit.Thus,improving the efficiency of the provision of public services,or in other words,raising the effectiveness of public risk management,may relieve the pressure of fiscal risk and obtain a more appropriate balance between public risk and fiscal risk.展开更多
Vietnam has become a major market for construction enterprises from East Asian countries, especially from China, to participate in international project contracting, but serious schedule delays have important adverse ...Vietnam has become a major market for construction enterprises from East Asian countries, especially from China, to participate in international project contracting, but serious schedule delays have important adverse effects on local government and foreign investment companies. Based on international engineering contracting mode of Vietnam highway BOT construction projects, we discussed the drive financial factors of schedule delays, using the methods of exploratory factor analysis and questionnaire survey, and evaluated the effects of various factors which are through regression analysis. The empirical results show that the five categories of financial factors, including the policy change, slow payment, financial mismanagement, financial market changes and lack of fiscal, have significant effects on schedule delay. Furtherly, we suggested that strengthening policy research and improving financial management ability should be used to reduce the influence of relevant financial factors on schedule delay, to improve the profitability of international businesses and the motivation of foreign enterprises to participate in Vietnam highway project.展开更多
International oil and gas projects feature high capital-intensity, high risks and contract diversity. Therefore, in order to help decision makers make more reasonable decisions under uncertainty, it is necessary to me...International oil and gas projects feature high capital-intensity, high risks and contract diversity. Therefore, in order to help decision makers make more reasonable decisions under uncertainty, it is necessary to measure the risks of international oil and gas projects. For this purpose, this paper constructs a probabilistic model that is based on the traditional economic evaluation model, and introduces value at risk(VaR) which is a valuable risk measure tool in finance, and applies Va R to measure the risks of royalty contracts, production share contracts and service contracts of an international oil and gas project. Besides, this paper compares the influences of different risk factors on the net present value(NPV) of the project by using the simulation results. The results indicate:(1) risks have great impacts on the project's NPV, therefore, if risks are overlooked, the decision may be wrong.(2) A simulation method is applied to simulate the stochastic distribution of risk factors in the probabilistic model. Therefore, the probability is related to the project's NPV, overcoming the inherent limitation of the traditional economic evaluation method.(3) VaR is a straightforward risk measure tool, and can be applied to evaluate the risks of international oil and gas projects. It is helpful for decision making.展开更多
By motivating local governments to fght for financial resources, China＇s tax sharing reform has affected the structure of financial decentralization and inflated local financial systems, thus spawning regional financ...By motivating local governments to fght for financial resources, China＇s tax sharing reform has affected the structure of financial decentralization and inflated local financial systems, thus spawning regional financial risks. Based on theoretical analysis and empirical evidence, this paper has arrived at the following findings： due to different policy objectives, central and local governments exhibit different fiscal and financial behaviors; public finance and financial sector have become financing instruments with certain convertibility under local economic growth framework,＂ fiscal decentralization inevitably affects financial decentralization and lays the foundation for provincial fiscal disparities, resulting in a certain spatial effect of interprovincial fiscal variable; fnancial explicit centralization/implicit decentralization and fiscal centralization have fueled local competition for financial resources and resulted in correlation between the spatial effects of provincial financial and fiscal variables, and moreover, their mismatch has also spawned fiscal and financial risks on various fronts. Hence, setting clear boundaries of financial centralization and decentralization and ensuring local government fiscal accountability is the key to the prevention and mitigation of fiscal and financial risks in China.展开更多
文摘Against the background of continued effects of financial crisis,fiscal risks management has become an important but tough issue for most countries in the world.Being a transitional country,China’s fiscal risks have their own characteristics.The evolution of fiscal risks is accompanied with China’s transitional reform and changes of governments’responsibility.The paper aims to track the changing pattern of fiscal risks from a historical respective and summarizes the evolution of fiscal risks management.Then it further analyzes the challenges of managing fiscal risks,and concludes it with recommendations.
文摘Public finance is the foundation and pillar of state governance,and the core of state governance is public risk management.On one hand,public finance provides public services using public revenue and manages public risk directly.On the other hand,public fiscal risk can serve as a policy instrument for public risk management.Public risk,public services,public revenue,and fiscal risk mutually reinforce and set each other off.Therefore,striking a balance between fiscal risk and public risk is of great importance.To minimize public risk under the constraint of fiscal risk is the fundamental basis of the assessment of public services.Even though the constraint of fiscal risk may vary with the requirement of minimizing public risk,there is a limit.Thus,improving the efficiency of the provision of public services,or in other words,raising the effectiveness of public risk management,may relieve the pressure of fiscal risk and obtain a more appropriate balance between public risk and fiscal risk.
文摘Vietnam has become a major market for construction enterprises from East Asian countries, especially from China, to participate in international project contracting, but serious schedule delays have important adverse effects on local government and foreign investment companies. Based on international engineering contracting mode of Vietnam highway BOT construction projects, we discussed the drive financial factors of schedule delays, using the methods of exploratory factor analysis and questionnaire survey, and evaluated the effects of various factors which are through regression analysis. The empirical results show that the five categories of financial factors, including the policy change, slow payment, financial mismanagement, financial market changes and lack of fiscal, have significant effects on schedule delay. Furtherly, we suggested that strengthening policy research and improving financial management ability should be used to reduce the influence of relevant financial factors on schedule delay, to improve the profitability of international businesses and the motivation of foreign enterprises to participate in Vietnam highway project.
基金supported by the Young Fund of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics(No.QN-2018002)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71774105)the Fund for Shanxi Key Subjects Construction(FSKSC)and Shanxi Repatriate Study Abroad Foundation(No.2016-3)
文摘International oil and gas projects feature high capital-intensity, high risks and contract diversity. Therefore, in order to help decision makers make more reasonable decisions under uncertainty, it is necessary to measure the risks of international oil and gas projects. For this purpose, this paper constructs a probabilistic model that is based on the traditional economic evaluation model, and introduces value at risk(VaR) which is a valuable risk measure tool in finance, and applies Va R to measure the risks of royalty contracts, production share contracts and service contracts of an international oil and gas project. Besides, this paper compares the influences of different risk factors on the net present value(NPV) of the project by using the simulation results. The results indicate:(1) risks have great impacts on the project's NPV, therefore, if risks are overlooked, the decision may be wrong.(2) A simulation method is applied to simulate the stochastic distribution of risk factors in the probabilistic model. Therefore, the probability is related to the project's NPV, overcoming the inherent limitation of the traditional economic evaluation method.(3) VaR is a straightforward risk measure tool, and can be applied to evaluate the risks of international oil and gas projects. It is helpful for decision making.
基金National Social Science Foundation Key Project "Strategic Study on China's Financial Security in the 13th Five-Year Plan Period"(Grant No.15AJY017)National Social Science Foundation General Project "Study on Regional Risks,Moderate Decentralization and Local Financial System Reform"(Grant No.14BJY192)
文摘By motivating local governments to fght for financial resources, China＇s tax sharing reform has affected the structure of financial decentralization and inflated local financial systems, thus spawning regional financial risks. Based on theoretical analysis and empirical evidence, this paper has arrived at the following findings： due to different policy objectives, central and local governments exhibit different fiscal and financial behaviors; public finance and financial sector have become financing instruments with certain convertibility under local economic growth framework,＂ fiscal decentralization inevitably affects financial decentralization and lays the foundation for provincial fiscal disparities, resulting in a certain spatial effect of interprovincial fiscal variable; fnancial explicit centralization/implicit decentralization and fiscal centralization have fueled local competition for financial resources and resulted in correlation between the spatial effects of provincial financial and fiscal variables, and moreover, their mismatch has also spawned fiscal and financial risks on various fronts. Hence, setting clear boundaries of financial centralization and decentralization and ensuring local government fiscal accountability is the key to the prevention and mitigation of fiscal and financial risks in China.
