A Statistical Study of Magnetic Flux Emergence in Solar Active Regions Prior to Strongest Flares

Using the data on magnetic field maps and continuum intensity for Solar Cycles 23 and 24,we explored 100 active regions(ARs)that produced M5.0 or stronger flares.We focus on the presence/absence of the emergence of magnetic flux in these ARs 2-3 days before the strong flare onset.We found that 29 ARs in the sample emerged monotonically amidst quiet-Sun.A major emergence of a new magnetic flux within a pre-existing AR yielding the formation of a complex flare-productive configuration was observed in another 24 cases.For 30 ARs,an insignificant(in terms of the total magnetic flux of pre-existing AR)emergence of a new magnetic flux within the pre-existing magnetic configuration was observed;for some of them the emergence resulted in a formation of a configuration with a small δ-sunspot;11 out of 100 ARs exhibited no signatures of magnetic flux emergence during the entire interval of observation.In six cases the emergence was in progress when the AR appeared on the Eastern limb,so that the classification and timing of emergence were not possible.We conclude that the recent flux emergence is not a necessary and/or sufficient condition for strong flaring of an AR.The flux emergence rate of flare-productive ARs analyzed here was compared with that of flare-quiet ARs analyzed in our previous studies.We revealed that the flare-productive ARs tend to display faster emergence than the flare-quiet ones do.

A Confined Two-peaked Solar Flare Observed by EAST and SDO

The solar flare is one of the most violent explosions,and can disturb the near-Earth space weather.Except for commonly single-peaked solar flares in soft X-ray,some special flares show intriguing a two-peak feature that is deserved much more attentions.Here,we reported a confined two-peaked solar flare and analyzed the associated eruptions using high-quality observations from Educational Adaptive-optics Solar Telescope and Solar Dynamics Observatory.Before the flare,a magnetic flux rope(MFR)formed through partially tether-cutting reconnection between two sheared arches.The flare occurred after the MFR eruption that was confined by the overlying strong field.Interestingly,a small underlying filament immediately erupted,which was possibly destabilized by the flare ribbon.The successive eruptions were confirmed by the analysis of the emission measure and the reconnection fluxes.Therefore,we suggest that the two peaks of the confined solar flare are corresponding to two episodes of magnetic reconnection during the successive eruptions of the MFR and the underlying filament.

Statistical Study of the Geoeffectivity of Halo Coronal Mass Ejections Associated with X-Class Flares during Solar Cycles 23 and 24

By analysing a long series of data (1996-2019), we show that solar cycle 23 was more marked by violent solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) compared to solar cycle 24. In particular, the halo coronal mass ejections associated with X-class flares appear to be among the most energetic events in solar activity given the size of the flares, the speed of the CMEs and the intense geomagnetic storms they produce. Out of eighty-six (86) X-class halo CMEs, thirty-seven (37) or 43% are highly geoeffective;twenty-four (24) or approximately 28% are moderately geoeffective and twenty-five (25) or 29% are not geoeffective. Over the two solar cycles (1996 to 2019), 71% of storms were geoeffective and 29% were not. For solar cycle 23, about 78% of storms were geoeffective, while for solar cycle 24, about 56% were geoeffective. For the statistical study based on speed, 85 halo CMEs associated with X-class flares were selected because the CME of 6 December 2006 has no recorded speed value. For both solar cycles, 75.29% of the halo CMEs associated with X-class flares have a speed greater than 1000 km/s. The study showed that 42.18% of halo (X) CMEs with speeds above 1000 km/s could cause intense geomagnetic disturbances. These results show the contribution (in terms of speed) of each class of halo (X) CMEs to the perturbation of the Earth’s magnetic field. Coronal mass ejections then become one of the key indicators of solar activity, especially as they affect the Earth.

New Cases of Superflares on Slowly Rotating Solar-type Stars and Large Amplitude Superflares in G-and M-type Main Sequence Stars

In our previous work,we searched for superflares on different types of stars while focusing on G-type dwarfs using entire Kepler data to study statistical properties of the occurrence rate of superflares.Using these new data,as a byproduct,we found 14 cases of superflare detection on 13 slowly rotating Sun-like stars with rotation periods of24.5–44 days.This result supports the earlier conclusion by others that the Sun may possibly undergo a surprise superflare.Moreover,we found 12 and seven new cases of detection of exceptionally large amplitude superflares on six and four main sequence stars of G-and M-type,respectively.No large-amplitude flares were detected in A,F or K main sequence stars.Here we present preliminary analysis of these cases.The superflare detection,i.e.,an estimation of flare energy,is based on a more accurate method compared to previous studies.We fit an exponential decay function to flare light curves and study the relation between e-folding decay time,τ,versus flare amplitude and flare energy.We find that for slowly rotating Sun-like stars,large values ofτcorrespond to small flare energies and small values ofτcorrespond to high flare energies considered.Similarly,τis large for small flare amplitudes andτis small for large amplitudes considered.However,there is no clear relation between these parameters for large amplitude superflares in the main sequence G-and M-type stars,as we could not establish clear functional dependence between the parameters via standard fitting algorithms.

LyαEmission Enhancement Associated with Soft X-Ray Microflares

Lyα(Lyα,1216 A)is the strongest emission line in the solar ultraviolet spectrum.In the present work,we obtained a Lyαenhancement catalog covering flares larger than B1 class from the GOES/EUVS data during 2010-2016.We focused on the 242 B-class events which are less investigated,however,show non-negligible Lyαemission enhancement.We found that on average the Lyαpeak of B-class flares is 0.85%stronger than the background.For the flare energetics,it is found that the weaker the soft X-ray(SXR)flare,the larger the ratio of the radiated energy in Lyαto SXR.Using the RHESSI data and multi-wavelength observations taken by SDO-AIA,we diagnose the thermal and non-thermal properties of several flares.Three case studies show that the coincidence of the Lyαpeak with the SXR time-derivative peak is not a sufficient condition of the nonthermal property of a Lyαmicroflare.The Lyαenhancement in the microflares may be caused by the nonthermal electron beams or/and thermal conduction.However for typeⅢevents,we found that the delay of the Lyαpeak with respect to the SXR peak can be attributed to either the Lyαemission from a filament erupted or the cooling of the thermal plasma in flare loops.Furthermore,interestingly the Lyαemission from filaments can not only occur in the decay phase of the flare,but also in the preflare phase.In this case,the Lyαemission was originated from an erupted filament which probably initiated the flare.

Flare Forecast Model Based on DS-SMOTE and SVM with Optimized Regular Term

The research of flare forecast based on the machine learning algorithm is an important content of space science.In order to improve the reliability of the data-driven model and weaken the impact of imbalanced data set on its forecast performance,we proposes a resampling method suitable for flare forecasting and a Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO)-based Support Vector Machine(SVM)regular term optimization method.Considering the problem of intra-class imbalance and inter-class imbalance in flare samples,we adopt the density clustering method combined with the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique(SMOTE)oversampling method,and performs the interpolation operation based on Euclidean distance on the basis of analyzing the clustering space in the minority class.At the same time,for the problem that the objective function used for strong classification in SVM cannot adapt to the sample noise,In this research,on the basis of adding regularization parameters,the PSO algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters,which can maximize the performance of the classifier.Finally,through a comprehensive comparison test,it is proved that the method designed can be well applied to the flare forecast problem,and the effectiveness of the method is proved.

Research Progress on Solar Flare Forecast Methods Based on Data-driven Models

Eruption of solar flares is a complex nonlinear process,and the rays and high-energy particles generated by such an eruption are detrimental to the reliability of space-based or ground-based systems.So far,there are not reliable physical models to accurately account for the flare outburst mechanism,but a lot of data-driven models have been built to study a solar flare and forecast it.In the paper,the status of solar-flare forecasting is reviewed,with emphasis on the machine learning methods and data-processing techniques used in the models.At first,the essential forecast factors strongly relevant to solar flare outbursts,such as classification information of the sunspots and evolution pattern of the magnetic field,are reviewed and analyzed.Subsequently,methods of resampling for data preprocessing are introduced to solve the problems of class imbalance in the solar flare samples.Afterwards,typical model structures adopted for flare forecasting are reviewed from the aspects of the single and fusion models,and the forecast performances of the different models are analyzed.Finally,we herein summarize the current research on solar flare forecasting and outline its development trends.

基于FLARESIM模拟的LNG接收站高架火炬设计选型研究

火炬系统是维护LNG接收站安全运行的重要设备。为了直观有效的掌握高架火炬热辐射对接收站内设施及周边环境的影响,评估火炬设置的合理性与安全性。在相关规范内容的基础上细化LNG接收站火炬系统处理能力的选型工况,其作为重要的输入条件,提高火炬设计规模及火炬系统设计的准确性,在此基础上进一步通过FLARESIM软件对高架火炬包括筒体尺寸、火炬头及火炬高度等进行模拟计算,在标准允许范围内有效识别并评估热辐射对接受点的影响,以确定高架火炬的设计参数及布置位置。一般说来,常规LNG接收站火炬泄放量最大组合工况为储罐漏热+大气压降低+控制阀失效或储罐漏热+大气压降低+卸船充装时的置换和闪蒸,并通过调整火炬位置及火炬筒高度可以满足热辐射的要求及气体扩散浓度要求。

海洋平台FLARESIM火炬模拟计算方法探讨

FLARESIM软件是一款用于火炬分析与设计的专业软件,它可以分析火炬泄放时产生的热辐射、温度和噪音,同时也可以进行可燃气体的扩散分析。作为火炬模拟与计算的专业软件,FLARESIM越来越多地应用于石油、石化行业。分析了几种常用的计算方法并以某海上平台为例,运用FLARESIM软件进行模拟,着重比较FLaresim API与Mixed方法对模拟结果的影响,研发了一套适用于一般项目的工程模拟方法。

Flares before and after coronal mass ejections

Flare characteristics such as the flare occurrence number density and the distribution of peak flux as well as duration of flares occurring on either side of a coronal mass ejection（CME） onset time are studied. While the flares are rather evenly distributed statistically on either side of the CME onset time,the flare peak flux and duration tend to decrease depending upon their occurrence either before or after the CME onset. This is consistent with the earlier findings that flares emit higher energy before a CME whereas the energy is less in flares occurring after a CME.

醋酸阿比特龙治疗去势抵抗性前列腺癌早期出现PSA Flare现象的初步分析

目的分析我院泌尿外科治疗中心确诊为去势抵抗型前列腺癌(CRPC)患者、应用醋酸阿比特龙联合泼尼松治疗早期出现PSA Flare现象后对其前列腺特异抗原(PSA)缓解率的影响及部分基线值对PSA Flare出现概率的影响,为后续治疗提供经验。方法本研究共纳入2015年10月至2017年10月接受醋酸阿比特龙联合泼尼松治疗的CRPC患者共计86例,分析其中用药12周以上的55例有效病例的PSA基线值及其变化。结果 55例患者PSA总体缓解为56.4%,其中27.2%(15/55例)的患者出现了PSA Flare现象;PSA再次下降至基线值水平以下的中位时间为3.1(2~6)月。CRPC患者的年龄、PSA基线值、Gleason评分和患者出现PSA Flare现象无明确关联。结论对于醋酸阿比特龙联合泼尼松治疗CRPC患者来说,PSA Flare现象的发生比较常见,和患者年龄、PSA基线值、Gleason评分并无明确关联。在治疗早期药物暴露时间要足够,部分患者可能≥12周,个别患者PSA Flare持续时间达到24周,因此出现PSA Flare并不能说明疾病进展,对疾病进展的预估要结合影像学等多方面证据。

活塞环润滑理论的发展及美国FLARE软件包

1 前言 活塞环的润滑状况一直是人们关心的重要课题,因为发动机约60%的摩擦损失消耗在活塞环与缺套的摩擦上。不仅如此,发动机的寿命也是以这对摩擦副的磨损程度为依据的。因此要想提高发动机的工作性能和延长发动机的使用寿命就必须对这对摩擦副的润滑状况进行深入细致的研究。 50年代末期,专家预测活塞环寿命只有2万km。

Hypersonic boundary-layer transition on a flared cone

Transition on a flared cone with zero angle of at- tack was studied in our newly established Mach 6 quiet wind tunnel （M6QT） via wall pressure measurement and flow visualization. High-frequency pressure transducers were used to measure the second-mode waves＇ amplitudes and frequencies. Using pulsed schlieren diagnostic and Rayleigh scattering technique, we got a clear evolution of the second-mode disturbances. The second-mode waves exist for a long distance, which means that the second-mode waves grow linearly in a large region. Strong Mach waves are radiated from the edge of the boundary layer. With further development, the second-mode waves reach their maximum magnitude and harmonics of the second-mode instability appear. Then the disturbances grow nonlinearly. The second modes become weak and merge with each other. Finally, the nonlinear interaction of disturbance leads to a relatively quiet zone, which further breaks down, resulting in the transition of the bound- ary layer. Our results show that transition is determined by the second mode. The quiet zone before the final breakdown is observed in flow visualization for the first time. Eventual transition requires the presence of a quiet zone generated by nonlinear interactions.

Aspen Flare System Analyzer在火炬管网设计与分析中的具体应用

火炬气的排放系统设计是一个非常复杂的过程,涉及到各泄放点的背压与管路马赫数的计算。介绍了Aspen Flare System Analyzer模拟软件的特点及应用方法,该软件遵循API的规范要求,通过计算火炬管网中各管段始末点的压力、温度、流速等参数,可有效发现设计中的不合理管径并进行修改。以中东某油田地面工程项目为例,阐述了在工程实际中如何通过该软件进行火炬管网核算。高压火炬管网的核算结果显示,部分安全阀尾管背压和马赫数过大,经软件修改后的尺寸在实际运行中可满足火炬气的排放要求,保证了系统安全。表明了该软件在安全阀的选型和火炬管网的设计工作中的应用价值。

Support Vector Machine combined with K-Nearest Neighbors for Solar Flare Forecasting

A method combining the support vector machine （SVM） the K-Nearest Neighbors （KNN）, labelled the SVM-KNN method, is used to construct a solar flare forecasting model. Based on a proven relationship between SVM and KNN, the SVM-KNN method improves the SVM algorithm of classification by taking advantage of the KNN algorithm according to the distribution of test samples in a feature space. In our flare forecast study, sunspots and 10cm radio flux data observed during Solar Cycle 23 are taken as predictors, and whether an M class flare will occur for each active region within two days will be predicted. The SVM- KNN method is compared with the SVM and Neural networks-based method. The test results indicate that the rate of correct predictions from the SVM-KNN method is higher than that from the other two methods. This method shows promise as a practicable future forecasting model.

一种基于功能层的Lens Flare处理算法

在摄影领域,镜头眩光是一种很常见的光学现象,在镜头朝向如太阳等强光源进行拍摄时,这种现象尤为明显。本文介绍了一种基于额外层次的镜头光源生成算法。该方法可以较为方便地生成可信度较高的镜头眩光效果,并且支持更多的后期处理。

Hepatic flares in chronic hepatitis C: Spontaneous exacerbation vs hepatotropic viruses superinfection

The hepatitis C virus(HCV)causes an acute infection that is frequently asymptomatic,but a spontaneous eradication of HCV infection occurs only in one-third of patients.The remaining two-thirds develop a chronic infection that,in most cases,shows an indolent course and a slow progression to the more advanced stagesof the illness.Nearly a quarter of cases with chronic hepatitis C(CHC)develop liver cirrhosis with or without hepatocellular carcinoma.The indolent course of the illness may be troubled by the occurrence of a hepatic flare,i.e.,a spontaneous acute exacerbation of CHC due to changes in the immune response,immunosuppression and subsequent restoration,and is characterized by an increase in serum aminotransferase values,a frequent deterioration in liver fibrosis and necroinflammation but also a high frequency of sustained viral response to pegylated interferon plus ribavirin treatment.A substantial increase in serum aminotransferase values during the clinical course of CHC may also be a consequence of a superinfection by other hepatotropic viruses,namely hepatitis B virus(HBV),HBV plus hepatitis D virus,hepatitis E virus,cytomegalovirus,particularly in geographical areas with high endemicity levels.The etiology of a hepatic flare in patients with CHC should always be defined to optimize follow-up procedures and clinical and therapeutic decisions.

Effect of restoration technique on resistance to fracture of endodontically treated anterior teeth with flared root canals

This study was designed to compare the impact of post and core systems on resistance to fracture of endodontically treated anterior teeth with flared root canals and to assess their fracture pattern. Sixty central incisors were cut horizontally 2 mm coronal to the cementoenamel junction(CEJ). After root canal therapy, teeth were assigned into 6 groups(n = 10 each) based on a post system and used as follows: Group C, non-flared root received size #1 glass fiber posts(Control); Group AP, flared root restored with anatomical post; Group RC, flared root restored with size #1 fiber post and cemented with thick layer of resin cement; Group CR, flared root restored with size #1 and reinforced with composite resin; Group CM, cast post-core; Group CP, CAD/CAM polymer-infiltrated ceramic post and core.Following post cementation, core build-up and crown insertion, the specimens were thermo-cycled up to 10,000 cycles(5 C/55 C; 30 seconds dwell time, 6 seconds transition time) and then statically loaded at 1 mm/minute crosshead speed using a universal testing machine. One-way ANOVA and Tukey HSD post hoc test(α= 0.05) were used for data analysis. Group C recorded significantly higher resistance to fracture values [(826.9±39.1) N] followed by group CP [(793.8±55.6) N] while group RC yielded the lowest fracture resistance values [(586.7±51.4) N]. The resistance to fracture of wide root canals can be enhanced by using one-piece CAM/CAM post and core as an alternative to the use of either glass fiber post, relined with composite resin increasing the thickness of luting cement or the use of cast post and core system. However, this was an in vitro investigation and further in vivo studies are necessary.

Fully nonlinear modeling of radiated waves generated by floating flared structures

The nonlinear radiated waves generated by a structure in forced motion, are simulated numerically based on the potential theory. A fully nonlinear numerical model is developed by using a higher-order boundary element method （HOBEM）. In this model, the instantaneous body position and the transient free surface are updated at each time step. A Lagrangian technique is employed as the time marching scheme on the free surface. The mesh regridding and interpolation methods are adopted to deal with the possible numerical instability. Several auxiliary functions are proposed to calculate the wave loads indirectly, instead of directly predicting the temporal derivative of the velocity potential. Numerical experiments are carried out to simulate the heave motions of a submerged sphere in infinite water depth, the heave and pitch motions of a truncated flared cylinder in finite depth. The results are verified against the published numerical results to ensure the effectiveness of the proposed model. Moreover, a series of higher harmonic waves and force components are obtained by the Fourier transformation to investigate the nonlinear effect of oscillation frequency. The difference among fully nonlinear, body-nonlinear and linear results is analyzed. It is found that the nonlinearity due to free surface and body surface has significant influences on the numerical results of the radiated waves and forces.

Synthetic analysis of a two-ribbon microflare

High-resolution Stokes spectral data of Hα, Ca Ⅱ 8542A, and Fe 16302.5A lines for a two-ribbon microflare （TRMF） were simultaneously obtained by the THEMIS telescope on 2002 September 5. We derive the intensity, velocity, and longitudinal magnetic field maps. The hard X-ray emission observed by RHESSI provides evidence of nonthermal particle acceleration in the TRMF. Using Ha and Ca Ⅱ 8542A line profiles and a non-LTE calculation, we obtain semi-empirical atmospheric models for the two brightest kernels of the TRME Our result indicates that the temperature enhancement in the chromosphere is more than 2500 K. The kinetic and radiative energies at the kernels are also estimated, resulting in an estimate of the total energy of the TRMF of about 2.4×10^29 erg. Observations indicate that the TRMF results from the low coronal magnetic reconnection following the eruption of a small fila- ment. However, the local temperature ＂bump＂ in the chromosphere presents a puzzle for such a standard flare model. A possible solution to this is discussed.