Using the data on magnetic field maps and continuum intensity for Solar Cycles 23 and 24,we explored 100 active regions(ARs)that produced M5.0 or stronger flares.We focus on the presence/absence of the emergence of ma...Using the data on magnetic field maps and continuum intensity for Solar Cycles 23 and 24,we explored 100 active regions(ARs)that produced M5.0 or stronger flares.We focus on the presence/absence of the emergence of magnetic flux in these ARs 2-3 days before the strong flare onset.We found that 29 ARs in the sample emerged monotonically amidst quiet-Sun.A major emergence of a new magnetic flux within a pre-existing AR yielding the formation of a complex flare-productive configuration was observed in another 24 cases.For 30 ARs,an insignificant(in terms of the total magnetic flux of pre-existing AR)emergence of a new magnetic flux within the pre-existing magnetic configuration was observed;for some of them the emergence resulted in a formation of a configuration with a small δ-sunspot;11 out of 100 ARs exhibited no signatures of magnetic flux emergence during the entire interval of observation.In six cases the emergence was in progress when the AR appeared on the Eastern limb,so that the classification and timing of emergence were not possible.We conclude that the recent flux emergence is not a necessary and/or sufficient condition for strong flaring of an AR.The flux emergence rate of flare-productive ARs analyzed here was compared with that of flare-quiet ARs analyzed in our previous studies.We revealed that the flare-productive ARs tend to display faster emergence than the flare-quiet ones do.展开更多
The solar flare is one of the most violent explosions,and can disturb the near-Earth space weather.Except for commonly single-peaked solar flares in soft X-ray,some special flares show intriguing a two-peak feature th...The solar flare is one of the most violent explosions,and can disturb the near-Earth space weather.Except for commonly single-peaked solar flares in soft X-ray,some special flares show intriguing a two-peak feature that is deserved much more attentions.Here,we reported a confined two-peaked solar flare and analyzed the associated eruptions using high-quality observations from Educational Adaptive-optics Solar Telescope and Solar Dynamics Observatory.Before the flare,a magnetic flux rope(MFR)formed through partially tether-cutting reconnection between two sheared arches.The flare occurred after the MFR eruption that was confined by the overlying strong field.Interestingly,a small underlying filament immediately erupted,which was possibly destabilized by the flare ribbon.The successive eruptions were confirmed by the analysis of the emission measure and the reconnection fluxes.Therefore,we suggest that the two peaks of the confined solar flare are corresponding to two episodes of magnetic reconnection during the successive eruptions of the MFR and the underlying filament.展开更多
By analysing a long series of data (1996-2019), we show that solar cycle 23 was more marked by violent solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) compared to solar cycle 24. In particular, the halo coronal mass ej...By analysing a long series of data (1996-2019), we show that solar cycle 23 was more marked by violent solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) compared to solar cycle 24. In particular, the halo coronal mass ejections associated with X-class flares appear to be among the most energetic events in solar activity given the size of the flares, the speed of the CMEs and the intense geomagnetic storms they produce. Out of eighty-six (86) X-class halo CMEs, thirty-seven (37) or 43% are highly geoeffective;twenty-four (24) or approximately 28% are moderately geoeffective and twenty-five (25) or 29% are not geoeffective. Over the two solar cycles (1996 to 2019), 71% of storms were geoeffective and 29% were not. For solar cycle 23, about 78% of storms were geoeffective, while for solar cycle 24, about 56% were geoeffective. For the statistical study based on speed, 85 halo CMEs associated with X-class flares were selected because the CME of 6 December 2006 has no recorded speed value. For both solar cycles, 75.29% of the halo CMEs associated with X-class flares have a speed greater than 1000 km/s. The study showed that 42.18% of halo (X) CMEs with speeds above 1000 km/s could cause intense geomagnetic disturbances. These results show the contribution (in terms of speed) of each class of halo (X) CMEs to the perturbation of the Earth’s magnetic field. Coronal mass ejections then become one of the key indicators of solar activity, especially as they affect the Earth.展开更多
In our previous work,we searched for superflares on different types of stars while focusing on G-type dwarfs using entire Kepler data to study statistical properties of the occurrence rate of superflares.Using these n...In our previous work,we searched for superflares on different types of stars while focusing on G-type dwarfs using entire Kepler data to study statistical properties of the occurrence rate of superflares.Using these new data,as a byproduct,we found 14 cases of superflare detection on 13 slowly rotating Sun-like stars with rotation periods of24.5–44 days.This result supports the earlier conclusion by others that the Sun may possibly undergo a surprise superflare.Moreover,we found 12 and seven new cases of detection of exceptionally large amplitude superflares on six and four main sequence stars of G-and M-type,respectively.No large-amplitude flares were detected in A,F or K main sequence stars.Here we present preliminary analysis of these cases.The superflare detection,i.e.,an estimation of flare energy,is based on a more accurate method compared to previous studies.We fit an exponential decay function to flare light curves and study the relation between e-folding decay time,τ,versus flare amplitude and flare energy.We find that for slowly rotating Sun-like stars,large values ofτcorrespond to small flare energies and small values ofτcorrespond to high flare energies considered.Similarly,τis large for small flare amplitudes andτis small for large amplitudes considered.However,there is no clear relation between these parameters for large amplitude superflares in the main sequence G-and M-type stars,as we could not establish clear functional dependence between the parameters via standard fitting algorithms.展开更多
Lyα(Lyα,1216 A)is the strongest emission line in the solar ultraviolet spectrum.In the present work,we obtained a Lyαenhancement catalog covering flares larger than B1 class from the GOES/EUVS data during 2010-2016...Lyα(Lyα,1216 A)is the strongest emission line in the solar ultraviolet spectrum.In the present work,we obtained a Lyαenhancement catalog covering flares larger than B1 class from the GOES/EUVS data during 2010-2016.We focused on the 242 B-class events which are less investigated,however,show non-negligible Lyαemission enhancement.We found that on average the Lyαpeak of B-class flares is 0.85%stronger than the background.For the flare energetics,it is found that the weaker the soft X-ray(SXR)flare,the larger the ratio of the radiated energy in Lyαto SXR.Using the RHESSI data and multi-wavelength observations taken by SDO-AIA,we diagnose the thermal and non-thermal properties of several flares.Three case studies show that the coincidence of the Lyαpeak with the SXR time-derivative peak is not a sufficient condition of the nonthermal property of a Lyαmicroflare.The Lyαenhancement in the microflares may be caused by the nonthermal electron beams or/and thermal conduction.However for typeⅢevents,we found that the delay of the Lyαpeak with respect to the SXR peak can be attributed to either the Lyαemission from a filament erupted or the cooling of the thermal plasma in flare loops.Furthermore,interestingly the Lyαemission from filaments can not only occur in the decay phase of the flare,but also in the preflare phase.In this case,the Lyαemission was originated from an erupted filament which probably initiated the flare.展开更多
The research of flare forecast based on the machine learning algorithm is an important content of space science.In order to improve the reliability of the data-driven model and weaken the impact of imbalanced data set...The research of flare forecast based on the machine learning algorithm is an important content of space science.In order to improve the reliability of the data-driven model and weaken the impact of imbalanced data set on its forecast performance,we proposes a resampling method suitable for flare forecasting and a Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO)-based Support Vector Machine(SVM)regular term optimization method.Considering the problem of intra-class imbalance and inter-class imbalance in flare samples,we adopt the density clustering method combined with the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique(SMOTE)oversampling method,and performs the interpolation operation based on Euclidean distance on the basis of analyzing the clustering space in the minority class.At the same time,for the problem that the objective function used for strong classification in SVM cannot adapt to the sample noise,In this research,on the basis of adding regularization parameters,the PSO algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters,which can maximize the performance of the classifier.Finally,through a comprehensive comparison test,it is proved that the method designed can be well applied to the flare forecast problem,and the effectiveness of the method is proved.展开更多
Eruption of solar flares is a complex nonlinear process,and the rays and high-energy particles generated by such an eruption are detrimental to the reliability of space-based or ground-based systems.So far,there are n...Eruption of solar flares is a complex nonlinear process,and the rays and high-energy particles generated by such an eruption are detrimental to the reliability of space-based or ground-based systems.So far,there are not reliable physical models to accurately account for the flare outburst mechanism,but a lot of data-driven models have been built to study a solar flare and forecast it.In the paper,the status of solar-flare forecasting is reviewed,with emphasis on the machine learning methods and data-processing techniques used in the models.At first,the essential forecast factors strongly relevant to solar flare outbursts,such as classification information of the sunspots and evolution pattern of the magnetic field,are reviewed and analyzed.Subsequently,methods of resampling for data preprocessing are introduced to solve the problems of class imbalance in the solar flare samples.Afterwards,typical model structures adopted for flare forecasting are reviewed from the aspects of the single and fusion models,and the forecast performances of the different models are analyzed.Finally,we herein summarize the current research on solar flare forecasting and outline its development trends.展开更多
Flare characteristics such as the flare occurrence number density and the distribution of peak flux as well as duration of flares occurring on either side of a coronal mass ejection(CME) onset time are studied. Whil...Flare characteristics such as the flare occurrence number density and the distribution of peak flux as well as duration of flares occurring on either side of a coronal mass ejection(CME) onset time are studied. While the flares are rather evenly distributed statistically on either side of the CME onset time,the flare peak flux and duration tend to decrease depending upon their occurrence either before or after the CME onset. This is consistent with the earlier findings that flares emit higher energy before a CME whereas the energy is less in flares occurring after a CME.展开更多
Transition on a flared cone with zero angle of at- tack was studied in our newly established Mach 6 quiet wind tunnel (M6QT) via wall pressure measurement and flow visualization. High-frequency pressure transducers ...Transition on a flared cone with zero angle of at- tack was studied in our newly established Mach 6 quiet wind tunnel (M6QT) via wall pressure measurement and flow visualization. High-frequency pressure transducers were used to measure the second-mode waves' amplitudes and frequencies. Using pulsed schlieren diagnostic and Rayleigh scattering technique, we got a clear evolution of the second-mode disturbances. The second-mode waves exist for a long distance, which means that the second-mode waves grow linearly in a large region. Strong Mach waves are radiated from the edge of the boundary layer. With further development, the second-mode waves reach their maximum magnitude and harmonics of the second-mode instability appear. Then the disturbances grow nonlinearly. The second modes become weak and merge with each other. Finally, the nonlinear interaction of disturbance leads to a relatively quiet zone, which further breaks down, resulting in the transition of the bound- ary layer. Our results show that transition is determined by the second mode. The quiet zone before the final breakdown is observed in flow visualization for the first time. Eventual transition requires the presence of a quiet zone generated by nonlinear interactions.展开更多
火炬气的排放系统设计是一个非常复杂的过程,涉及到各泄放点的背压与管路马赫数的计算。介绍了Aspen Flare System Analyzer模拟软件的特点及应用方法,该软件遵循API的规范要求,通过计算火炬管网中各管段始末点的压力、温度、流速等参数...火炬气的排放系统设计是一个非常复杂的过程,涉及到各泄放点的背压与管路马赫数的计算。介绍了Aspen Flare System Analyzer模拟软件的特点及应用方法,该软件遵循API的规范要求,通过计算火炬管网中各管段始末点的压力、温度、流速等参数,可有效发现设计中的不合理管径并进行修改。以中东某油田地面工程项目为例,阐述了在工程实际中如何通过该软件进行火炬管网核算。高压火炬管网的核算结果显示,部分安全阀尾管背压和马赫数过大,经软件修改后的尺寸在实际运行中可满足火炬气的排放要求,保证了系统安全。表明了该软件在安全阀的选型和火炬管网的设计工作中的应用价值。展开更多
A method combining the support vector machine (SVM) the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), labelled the SVM-KNN method, is used to construct a solar flare forecasting model. Based on a proven relationship between SVM and ...A method combining the support vector machine (SVM) the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), labelled the SVM-KNN method, is used to construct a solar flare forecasting model. Based on a proven relationship between SVM and KNN, the SVM-KNN method improves the SVM algorithm of classification by taking advantage of the KNN algorithm according to the distribution of test samples in a feature space. In our flare forecast study, sunspots and 10cm radio flux data observed during Solar Cycle 23 are taken as predictors, and whether an M class flare will occur for each active region within two days will be predicted. The SVM- KNN method is compared with the SVM and Neural networks-based method. The test results indicate that the rate of correct predictions from the SVM-KNN method is higher than that from the other two methods. This method shows promise as a practicable future forecasting model.展开更多
The hepatitis C virus(HCV)causes an acute infection that is frequently asymptomatic,but a spontaneous eradication of HCV infection occurs only in one-third of patients.The remaining two-thirds develop a chronic infect...The hepatitis C virus(HCV)causes an acute infection that is frequently asymptomatic,but a spontaneous eradication of HCV infection occurs only in one-third of patients.The remaining two-thirds develop a chronic infection that,in most cases,shows an indolent course and a slow progression to the more advanced stagesof the illness.Nearly a quarter of cases with chronic hepatitis C(CHC)develop liver cirrhosis with or without hepatocellular carcinoma.The indolent course of the illness may be troubled by the occurrence of a hepatic flare,i.e.,a spontaneous acute exacerbation of CHC due to changes in the immune response,immunosuppression and subsequent restoration,and is characterized by an increase in serum aminotransferase values,a frequent deterioration in liver fibrosis and necroinflammation but also a high frequency of sustained viral response to pegylated interferon plus ribavirin treatment.A substantial increase in serum aminotransferase values during the clinical course of CHC may also be a consequence of a superinfection by other hepatotropic viruses,namely hepatitis B virus(HBV),HBV plus hepatitis D virus,hepatitis E virus,cytomegalovirus,particularly in geographical areas with high endemicity levels.The etiology of a hepatic flare in patients with CHC should always be defined to optimize follow-up procedures and clinical and therapeutic decisions.展开更多
This study was designed to compare the impact of post and core systems on resistance to fracture of endodontically treated anterior teeth with flared root canals and to assess their fracture pattern. Sixty central inc...This study was designed to compare the impact of post and core systems on resistance to fracture of endodontically treated anterior teeth with flared root canals and to assess their fracture pattern. Sixty central incisors were cut horizontally 2 mm coronal to the cementoenamel junction(CEJ). After root canal therapy, teeth were assigned into 6 groups(n = 10 each) based on a post system and used as follows: Group C, non-flared root received size #1 glass fiber posts(Control); Group AP, flared root restored with anatomical post; Group RC, flared root restored with size #1 fiber post and cemented with thick layer of resin cement; Group CR, flared root restored with size #1 and reinforced with composite resin; Group CM, cast post-core; Group CP, CAD/CAM polymer-infiltrated ceramic post and core.Following post cementation, core build-up and crown insertion, the specimens were thermo-cycled up to 10,000 cycles(5 C/55 C; 30 seconds dwell time, 6 seconds transition time) and then statically loaded at 1 mm/minute crosshead speed using a universal testing machine. One-way ANOVA and Tukey HSD post hoc test(α= 0.05) were used for data analysis. Group C recorded significantly higher resistance to fracture values [(826.9±39.1) N] followed by group CP [(793.8±55.6) N] while group RC yielded the lowest fracture resistance values [(586.7±51.4) N]. The resistance to fracture of wide root canals can be enhanced by using one-piece CAM/CAM post and core as an alternative to the use of either glass fiber post, relined with composite resin increasing the thickness of luting cement or the use of cast post and core system. However, this was an in vitro investigation and further in vivo studies are necessary.展开更多
The nonlinear radiated waves generated by a structure in forced motion, are simulated numerically based on the potential theory. A fully nonlinear numerical model is developed by using a higher-order boundary element ...The nonlinear radiated waves generated by a structure in forced motion, are simulated numerically based on the potential theory. A fully nonlinear numerical model is developed by using a higher-order boundary element method (HOBEM). In this model, the instantaneous body position and the transient free surface are updated at each time step. A Lagrangian technique is employed as the time marching scheme on the free surface. The mesh regridding and interpolation methods are adopted to deal with the possible numerical instability. Several auxiliary functions are proposed to calculate the wave loads indirectly, instead of directly predicting the temporal derivative of the velocity potential. Numerical experiments are carried out to simulate the heave motions of a submerged sphere in infinite water depth, the heave and pitch motions of a truncated flared cylinder in finite depth. The results are verified against the published numerical results to ensure the effectiveness of the proposed model. Moreover, a series of higher harmonic waves and force components are obtained by the Fourier transformation to investigate the nonlinear effect of oscillation frequency. The difference among fully nonlinear, body-nonlinear and linear results is analyzed. It is found that the nonlinearity due to free surface and body surface has significant influences on the numerical results of the radiated waves and forces.展开更多
High-resolution Stokes spectral data of Hα, Ca Ⅱ 8542A, and Fe 16302.5A lines for a two-ribbon microflare (TRMF) were simultaneously obtained by the THEMIS telescope on 2002 September 5. We derive the intensity, v...High-resolution Stokes spectral data of Hα, Ca Ⅱ 8542A, and Fe 16302.5A lines for a two-ribbon microflare (TRMF) were simultaneously obtained by the THEMIS telescope on 2002 September 5. We derive the intensity, velocity, and longitudinal magnetic field maps. The hard X-ray emission observed by RHESSI provides evidence of nonthermal particle acceleration in the TRMF. Using Ha and Ca Ⅱ 8542A line profiles and a non-LTE calculation, we obtain semi-empirical atmospheric models for the two brightest kernels of the TRME Our result indicates that the temperature enhancement in the chromosphere is more than 2500 K. The kinetic and radiative energies at the kernels are also estimated, resulting in an estimate of the total energy of the TRMF of about 2.4×10^29 erg. Observations indicate that the TRMF results from the low coronal magnetic reconnection following the eruption of a small fila- ment. However, the local temperature "bump" in the chromosphere presents a puzzle for such a standard flare model. A possible solution to this is discussed.展开更多
文摘Using the data on magnetic field maps and continuum intensity for Solar Cycles 23 and 24,we explored 100 active regions(ARs)that produced M5.0 or stronger flares.We focus on the presence/absence of the emergence of magnetic flux in these ARs 2-3 days before the strong flare onset.We found that 29 ARs in the sample emerged monotonically amidst quiet-Sun.A major emergence of a new magnetic flux within a pre-existing AR yielding the formation of a complex flare-productive configuration was observed in another 24 cases.For 30 ARs,an insignificant(in terms of the total magnetic flux of pre-existing AR)emergence of a new magnetic flux within the pre-existing magnetic configuration was observed;for some of them the emergence resulted in a formation of a configuration with a small δ-sunspot;11 out of 100 ARs exhibited no signatures of magnetic flux emergence during the entire interval of observation.In six cases the emergence was in progress when the AR appeared on the Eastern limb,so that the classification and timing of emergence were not possible.We conclude that the recent flux emergence is not a necessary and/or sufficient condition for strong flaring of an AR.The flux emergence rate of flare-productive ARs analyzed here was compared with that of flare-quiet ARs analyzed in our previous studies.We revealed that the flare-productive ARs tend to display faster emergence than the flare-quiet ones do.
基金supported by grants of the National Natural Foundation of China(NSFC12073016)the open topic of the Yunnan Key Laboratory of Solar Physics and Space Science(YNSPCC202217)。
文摘The solar flare is one of the most violent explosions,and can disturb the near-Earth space weather.Except for commonly single-peaked solar flares in soft X-ray,some special flares show intriguing a two-peak feature that is deserved much more attentions.Here,we reported a confined two-peaked solar flare and analyzed the associated eruptions using high-quality observations from Educational Adaptive-optics Solar Telescope and Solar Dynamics Observatory.Before the flare,a magnetic flux rope(MFR)formed through partially tether-cutting reconnection between two sheared arches.The flare occurred after the MFR eruption that was confined by the overlying strong field.Interestingly,a small underlying filament immediately erupted,which was possibly destabilized by the flare ribbon.The successive eruptions were confirmed by the analysis of the emission measure and the reconnection fluxes.Therefore,we suggest that the two peaks of the confined solar flare are corresponding to two episodes of magnetic reconnection during the successive eruptions of the MFR and the underlying filament.
文摘By analysing a long series of data (1996-2019), we show that solar cycle 23 was more marked by violent solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) compared to solar cycle 24. In particular, the halo coronal mass ejections associated with X-class flares appear to be among the most energetic events in solar activity given the size of the flares, the speed of the CMEs and the intense geomagnetic storms they produce. Out of eighty-six (86) X-class halo CMEs, thirty-seven (37) or 43% are highly geoeffective;twenty-four (24) or approximately 28% are moderately geoeffective and twenty-five (25) or 29% are not geoeffective. Over the two solar cycles (1996 to 2019), 71% of storms were geoeffective and 29% were not. For solar cycle 23, about 78% of storms were geoeffective, while for solar cycle 24, about 56% were geoeffective. For the statistical study based on speed, 85 halo CMEs associated with X-class flares were selected because the CME of 6 December 2006 has no recorded speed value. For both solar cycles, 75.29% of the halo CMEs associated with X-class flares have a speed greater than 1000 km/s. The study showed that 42.18% of halo (X) CMEs with speeds above 1000 km/s could cause intense geomagnetic disturbances. These results show the contribution (in terms of speed) of each class of halo (X) CMEs to the perturbation of the Earth’s magnetic field. Coronal mass ejections then become one of the key indicators of solar activity, especially as they affect the Earth.
基金Support for MAST for non-HST data is provided by the NASA Office of Space Science via grant NNX13AC07G and by other grants and contractsRiyadh,Saudi Arabia and the Royal Embassy of Saudi Arabia Cultural Bureau in London,UK for the financial support of her PhD scholarship,held at Queen Mary University of London。
文摘In our previous work,we searched for superflares on different types of stars while focusing on G-type dwarfs using entire Kepler data to study statistical properties of the occurrence rate of superflares.Using these new data,as a byproduct,we found 14 cases of superflare detection on 13 slowly rotating Sun-like stars with rotation periods of24.5–44 days.This result supports the earlier conclusion by others that the Sun may possibly undergo a surprise superflare.Moreover,we found 12 and seven new cases of detection of exceptionally large amplitude superflares on six and four main sequence stars of G-and M-type,respectively.No large-amplitude flares were detected in A,F or K main sequence stars.Here we present preliminary analysis of these cases.The superflare detection,i.e.,an estimation of flare energy,is based on a more accurate method compared to previous studies.We fit an exponential decay function to flare light curves and study the relation between e-folding decay time,τ,versus flare amplitude and flare energy.We find that for slowly rotating Sun-like stars,large values ofτcorrespond to small flare energies and small values ofτcorrespond to high flare energies considered.Similarly,τis large for small flare amplitudes andτis small for large amplitudes considered.However,there is no clear relation between these parameters for large amplitude superflares in the main sequence G-and M-type stars,as we could not establish clear functional dependence between the parameters via standard fitting algorithms.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China under grants 2022YFF0503003(2022YFF0503000)and 2018YFA0404200the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC,Grant Nos.11921003,11973012,and 11820101002)+1 种基金CAS Strategic Pioneer Program on Space Science(Grant Nos.XDA15018300,XDA15052200,XDA15320103,and XDA15320301)the mobility program(M-0068)of the Sino-German Science Center。
文摘Lyα(Lyα,1216 A)is the strongest emission line in the solar ultraviolet spectrum.In the present work,we obtained a Lyαenhancement catalog covering flares larger than B1 class from the GOES/EUVS data during 2010-2016.We focused on the 242 B-class events which are less investigated,however,show non-negligible Lyαemission enhancement.We found that on average the Lyαpeak of B-class flares is 0.85%stronger than the background.For the flare energetics,it is found that the weaker the soft X-ray(SXR)flare,the larger the ratio of the radiated energy in Lyαto SXR.Using the RHESSI data and multi-wavelength observations taken by SDO-AIA,we diagnose the thermal and non-thermal properties of several flares.Three case studies show that the coincidence of the Lyαpeak with the SXR time-derivative peak is not a sufficient condition of the nonthermal property of a Lyαmicroflare.The Lyαenhancement in the microflares may be caused by the nonthermal electron beams or/and thermal conduction.However for typeⅢevents,we found that the delay of the Lyαpeak with respect to the SXR peak can be attributed to either the Lyαemission from a filament erupted or the cooling of the thermal plasma in flare loops.Furthermore,interestingly the Lyαemission from filaments can not only occur in the decay phase of the flare,but also in the preflare phase.In this case,the Lyαemission was originated from an erupted filament which probably initiated the flare.
基金the support of the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFF0503601)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11975086)。
文摘The research of flare forecast based on the machine learning algorithm is an important content of space science.In order to improve the reliability of the data-driven model and weaken the impact of imbalanced data set on its forecast performance,we proposes a resampling method suitable for flare forecasting and a Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO)-based Support Vector Machine(SVM)regular term optimization method.Considering the problem of intra-class imbalance and inter-class imbalance in flare samples,we adopt the density clustering method combined with the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique(SMOTE)oversampling method,and performs the interpolation operation based on Euclidean distance on the basis of analyzing the clustering space in the minority class.At the same time,for the problem that the objective function used for strong classification in SVM cannot adapt to the sample noise,In this research,on the basis of adding regularization parameters,the PSO algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters,which can maximize the performance of the classifier.Finally,through a comprehensive comparison test,it is proved that the method designed can be well applied to the flare forecast problem,and the effectiveness of the method is proved.
基金the support of the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFA1604600)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC,Grant No.11975086)。
文摘Eruption of solar flares is a complex nonlinear process,and the rays and high-energy particles generated by such an eruption are detrimental to the reliability of space-based or ground-based systems.So far,there are not reliable physical models to accurately account for the flare outburst mechanism,but a lot of data-driven models have been built to study a solar flare and forecast it.In the paper,the status of solar-flare forecasting is reviewed,with emphasis on the machine learning methods and data-processing techniques used in the models.At first,the essential forecast factors strongly relevant to solar flare outbursts,such as classification information of the sunspots and evolution pattern of the magnetic field,are reviewed and analyzed.Subsequently,methods of resampling for data preprocessing are introduced to solve the problems of class imbalance in the solar flare samples.Afterwards,typical model structures adopted for flare forecasting are reviewed from the aspects of the single and fusion models,and the forecast performances of the different models are analyzed.Finally,we herein summarize the current research on solar flare forecasting and outline its development trends.
文摘Flare characteristics such as the flare occurrence number density and the distribution of peak flux as well as duration of flares occurring on either side of a coronal mass ejection(CME) onset time are studied. While the flares are rather evenly distributed statistically on either side of the CME onset time,the flare peak flux and duration tend to decrease depending upon their occurrence either before or after the CME onset. This is consistent with the earlier findings that flares emit higher energy before a CME whereas the energy is less in flares occurring after a CME.
文摘Transition on a flared cone with zero angle of at- tack was studied in our newly established Mach 6 quiet wind tunnel (M6QT) via wall pressure measurement and flow visualization. High-frequency pressure transducers were used to measure the second-mode waves' amplitudes and frequencies. Using pulsed schlieren diagnostic and Rayleigh scattering technique, we got a clear evolution of the second-mode disturbances. The second-mode waves exist for a long distance, which means that the second-mode waves grow linearly in a large region. Strong Mach waves are radiated from the edge of the boundary layer. With further development, the second-mode waves reach their maximum magnitude and harmonics of the second-mode instability appear. Then the disturbances grow nonlinearly. The second modes become weak and merge with each other. Finally, the nonlinear interaction of disturbance leads to a relatively quiet zone, which further breaks down, resulting in the transition of the bound- ary layer. Our results show that transition is determined by the second mode. The quiet zone before the final breakdown is observed in flow visualization for the first time. Eventual transition requires the presence of a quiet zone generated by nonlinear interactions.
文摘火炬气的排放系统设计是一个非常复杂的过程,涉及到各泄放点的背压与管路马赫数的计算。介绍了Aspen Flare System Analyzer模拟软件的特点及应用方法,该软件遵循API的规范要求,通过计算火炬管网中各管段始末点的压力、温度、流速等参数,可有效发现设计中的不合理管径并进行修改。以中东某油田地面工程项目为例,阐述了在工程实际中如何通过该软件进行火炬管网核算。高压火炬管网的核算结果显示,部分安全阀尾管背压和马赫数过大,经软件修改后的尺寸在实际运行中可满足火炬气的排放要求,保证了系统安全。表明了该软件在安全阀的选型和火炬管网的设计工作中的应用价值。
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A method combining the support vector machine (SVM) the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), labelled the SVM-KNN method, is used to construct a solar flare forecasting model. Based on a proven relationship between SVM and KNN, the SVM-KNN method improves the SVM algorithm of classification by taking advantage of the KNN algorithm according to the distribution of test samples in a feature space. In our flare forecast study, sunspots and 10cm radio flux data observed during Solar Cycle 23 are taken as predictors, and whether an M class flare will occur for each active region within two days will be predicted. The SVM- KNN method is compared with the SVM and Neural networks-based method. The test results indicate that the rate of correct predictions from the SVM-KNN method is higher than that from the other two methods. This method shows promise as a practicable future forecasting model.
基金Supported by A grant from PRIN 2008,MIUR,Rome,Italy"Ottimizzazione Della Diagnosi Eziologica dell’epatite Acuta C E Studio dei Fattori Viro-Immunologici di Guarigione,di Cronicizzazione E di Risposta Alla Terapia Con Interferone"in part by a grant from Regione Campania"Progetti per il migliora-mento della qualitàdell’assistenza,diagnosi e terapia del paziente affetto da AIDS nei settori:immunologia,coinfezioni,informa-zione e prevenzione",2008
文摘The hepatitis C virus(HCV)causes an acute infection that is frequently asymptomatic,but a spontaneous eradication of HCV infection occurs only in one-third of patients.The remaining two-thirds develop a chronic infection that,in most cases,shows an indolent course and a slow progression to the more advanced stagesof the illness.Nearly a quarter of cases with chronic hepatitis C(CHC)develop liver cirrhosis with or without hepatocellular carcinoma.The indolent course of the illness may be troubled by the occurrence of a hepatic flare,i.e.,a spontaneous acute exacerbation of CHC due to changes in the immune response,immunosuppression and subsequent restoration,and is characterized by an increase in serum aminotransferase values,a frequent deterioration in liver fibrosis and necroinflammation but also a high frequency of sustained viral response to pegylated interferon plus ribavirin treatment.A substantial increase in serum aminotransferase values during the clinical course of CHC may also be a consequence of a superinfection by other hepatotropic viruses,namely hepatitis B virus(HBV),HBV plus hepatitis D virus,hepatitis E virus,cytomegalovirus,particularly in geographical areas with high endemicity levels.The etiology of a hepatic flare in patients with CHC should always be defined to optimize follow-up procedures and clinical and therapeutic decisions.
文摘This study was designed to compare the impact of post and core systems on resistance to fracture of endodontically treated anterior teeth with flared root canals and to assess their fracture pattern. Sixty central incisors were cut horizontally 2 mm coronal to the cementoenamel junction(CEJ). After root canal therapy, teeth were assigned into 6 groups(n = 10 each) based on a post system and used as follows: Group C, non-flared root received size #1 glass fiber posts(Control); Group AP, flared root restored with anatomical post; Group RC, flared root restored with size #1 fiber post and cemented with thick layer of resin cement; Group CR, flared root restored with size #1 and reinforced with composite resin; Group CM, cast post-core; Group CP, CAD/CAM polymer-infiltrated ceramic post and core.Following post cementation, core build-up and crown insertion, the specimens were thermo-cycled up to 10,000 cycles(5 C/55 C; 30 seconds dwell time, 6 seconds transition time) and then statically loaded at 1 mm/minute crosshead speed using a universal testing machine. One-way ANOVA and Tukey HSD post hoc test(α= 0.05) were used for data analysis. Group C recorded significantly higher resistance to fracture values [(826.9±39.1) N] followed by group CP [(793.8±55.6) N] while group RC yielded the lowest fracture resistance values [(586.7±51.4) N]. The resistance to fracture of wide root canals can be enhanced by using one-piece CAM/CAM post and core as an alternative to the use of either glass fiber post, relined with composite resin increasing the thickness of luting cement or the use of cast post and core system. However, this was an in vitro investigation and further in vivo studies are necessary.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51222902,51221961,and 51379032)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University(NCET-130076)+2 种基金The Fundamental Research Fund for the Central University(HEUCF140103)The Open Fund of State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering(LP1407)the Lloyd’s Register Foundation (LRF) through the Joint Centre Involving University College London,Shanghai Jiaotong University and Harbin Engineering University
文摘The nonlinear radiated waves generated by a structure in forced motion, are simulated numerically based on the potential theory. A fully nonlinear numerical model is developed by using a higher-order boundary element method (HOBEM). In this model, the instantaneous body position and the transient free surface are updated at each time step. A Lagrangian technique is employed as the time marching scheme on the free surface. The mesh regridding and interpolation methods are adopted to deal with the possible numerical instability. Several auxiliary functions are proposed to calculate the wave loads indirectly, instead of directly predicting the temporal derivative of the velocity potential. Numerical experiments are carried out to simulate the heave motions of a submerged sphere in infinite water depth, the heave and pitch motions of a truncated flared cylinder in finite depth. The results are verified against the published numerical results to ensure the effectiveness of the proposed model. Moreover, a series of higher harmonic waves and force components are obtained by the Fourier transformation to investigate the nonlinear effect of oscillation frequency. The difference among fully nonlinear, body-nonlinear and linear results is analyzed. It is found that the nonlinearity due to free surface and body surface has significant influences on the numerical results of the radiated waves and forces.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC) (Grant Nos. 10221001, 10878002, 10403003, 10620150099,10610099, 10933003 and 10673004)a grant form the 973 project 2006CB806302
文摘High-resolution Stokes spectral data of Hα, Ca Ⅱ 8542A, and Fe 16302.5A lines for a two-ribbon microflare (TRMF) were simultaneously obtained by the THEMIS telescope on 2002 September 5. We derive the intensity, velocity, and longitudinal magnetic field maps. The hard X-ray emission observed by RHESSI provides evidence of nonthermal particle acceleration in the TRMF. Using Ha and Ca Ⅱ 8542A line profiles and a non-LTE calculation, we obtain semi-empirical atmospheric models for the two brightest kernels of the TRME Our result indicates that the temperature enhancement in the chromosphere is more than 2500 K. The kinetic and radiative energies at the kernels are also estimated, resulting in an estimate of the total energy of the TRMF of about 2.4×10^29 erg. Observations indicate that the TRMF results from the low coronal magnetic reconnection following the eruption of a small fila- ment. However, the local temperature "bump" in the chromosphere presents a puzzle for such a standard flare model. A possible solution to this is discussed.