Statistical Study of the Geoeffectivity of Halo Coronal Mass Ejections Associated with X-Class Flares during Solar Cycles 23 and 24

By analysing a long series of data (1996-2019), we show that solar cycle 23 was more marked by violent solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) compared to solar cycle 24. In particular, the halo coronal mass ejections associated with X-class flares appear to be among the most energetic events in solar activity given the size of the flares, the speed of the CMEs and the intense geomagnetic storms they produce. Out of eighty-six (86) X-class halo CMEs, thirty-seven (37) or 43% are highly geoeffective;twenty-four (24) or approximately 28% are moderately geoeffective and twenty-five (25) or 29% are not geoeffective. Over the two solar cycles (1996 to 2019), 71% of storms were geoeffective and 29% were not. For solar cycle 23, about 78% of storms were geoeffective, while for solar cycle 24, about 56% were geoeffective. For the statistical study based on speed, 85 halo CMEs associated with X-class flares were selected because the CME of 6 December 2006 has no recorded speed value. For both solar cycles, 75.29% of the halo CMEs associated with X-class flares have a speed greater than 1000 km/s. The study showed that 42.18% of halo (X) CMEs with speeds above 1000 km/s could cause intense geomagnetic disturbances. These results show the contribution (in terms of speed) of each class of halo (X) CMEs to the perturbation of the Earth’s magnetic field. Coronal mass ejections then become one of the key indicators of solar activity, especially as they affect the Earth.

New Cases of Superflares on Slowly Rotating Solar-type Stars and Large Amplitude Superflares in G-and M-type Main Sequence Stars

In our previous work,we searched for superflares on different types of stars while focusing on G-type dwarfs using entire Kepler data to study statistical properties of the occurrence rate of superflares.Using these new data,as a byproduct,we found 14 cases of superflare detection on 13 slowly rotating Sun-like stars with rotation periods of24.5–44 days.This result supports the earlier conclusion by others that the Sun may possibly undergo a surprise superflare.Moreover,we found 12 and seven new cases of detection of exceptionally large amplitude superflares on six and four main sequence stars of G-and M-type,respectively.No large-amplitude flares were detected in A,F or K main sequence stars.Here we present preliminary analysis of these cases.The superflare detection,i.e.,an estimation of flare energy,is based on a more accurate method compared to previous studies.We fit an exponential decay function to flare light curves and study the relation between e-folding decay time,τ,versus flare amplitude and flare energy.We find that for slowly rotating Sun-like stars,large values ofτcorrespond to small flare energies and small values ofτcorrespond to high flare energies considered.Similarly,τis large for small flare amplitudes andτis small for large amplitudes considered.However,there is no clear relation between these parameters for large amplitude superflares in the main sequence G-and M-type stars,as we could not establish clear functional dependence between the parameters via standard fitting algorithms.

LyαEmission Enhancement Associated with Soft X-Ray Microflares

Lyα(Lyα,1216 A)is the strongest emission line in the solar ultraviolet spectrum.In the present work,we obtained a Lyαenhancement catalog covering flares larger than B1 class from the GOES/EUVS data during 2010-2016.We focused on the 242 B-class events which are less investigated,however,show non-negligible Lyαemission enhancement.We found that on average the Lyαpeak of B-class flares is 0.85%stronger than the background.For the flare energetics,it is found that the weaker the soft X-ray(SXR)flare,the larger the ratio of the radiated energy in Lyαto SXR.Using the RHESSI data and multi-wavelength observations taken by SDO-AIA,we diagnose the thermal and non-thermal properties of several flares.Three case studies show that the coincidence of the Lyαpeak with the SXR time-derivative peak is not a sufficient condition of the nonthermal property of a Lyαmicroflare.The Lyαenhancement in the microflares may be caused by the nonthermal electron beams or/and thermal conduction.However for typeⅢevents,we found that the delay of the Lyαpeak with respect to the SXR peak can be attributed to either the Lyαemission from a filament erupted or the cooling of the thermal plasma in flare loops.Furthermore,interestingly the Lyαemission from filaments can not only occur in the decay phase of the flare,but also in the preflare phase.In this case,the Lyαemission was originated from an erupted filament which probably initiated the flare.

Flares before and after coronal mass ejections

Flare characteristics such as the flare occurrence number density and the distribution of peak flux as well as duration of flares occurring on either side of a coronal mass ejection（CME） onset time are studied. While the flares are rather evenly distributed statistically on either side of the CME onset time,the flare peak flux and duration tend to decrease depending upon their occurrence either before or after the CME onset. This is consistent with the earlier findings that flares emit higher energy before a CME whereas the energy is less in flares occurring after a CME.

Hepatic flares in chronic hepatitis C: Spontaneous exacerbation vs hepatotropic viruses superinfection

The hepatitis C virus(HCV)causes an acute infection that is frequently asymptomatic,but a spontaneous eradication of HCV infection occurs only in one-third of patients.The remaining two-thirds develop a chronic infection that,in most cases,shows an indolent course and a slow progression to the more advanced stagesof the illness.Nearly a quarter of cases with chronic hepatitis C(CHC)develop liver cirrhosis with or without hepatocellular carcinoma.The indolent course of the illness may be troubled by the occurrence of a hepatic flare,i.e.,a spontaneous acute exacerbation of CHC due to changes in the immune response,immunosuppression and subsequent restoration,and is characterized by an increase in serum aminotransferase values,a frequent deterioration in liver fibrosis and necroinflammation but also a high frequency of sustained viral response to pegylated interferon plus ribavirin treatment.A substantial increase in serum aminotransferase values during the clinical course of CHC may also be a consequence of a superinfection by other hepatotropic viruses,namely hepatitis B virus(HBV),HBV plus hepatitis D virus,hepatitis E virus,cytomegalovirus,particularly in geographical areas with high endemicity levels.The etiology of a hepatic flare in patients with CHC should always be defined to optimize follow-up procedures and clinical and therapeutic decisions.

Double hard X-ray peaks in RHESSI flares as evidence of chromospheric evaporation and implications for modifying the Neupert effect

Among the RHESSI flare samples, we concentrated on a kind of flare that presents two successive peaks （that is, it presents both an impulsive phase and a gradual phase） in 12 - 25 keV light curves. Taking the C1.4 flare on 2002 August 12 as an example, we studied the light curves, spectra, and images in detail. Making full use of the capabilities of RHESSI, we showed some evidence to support the expected causal relationship between these two peaks; the first peak is mainly nonthermal, while the second peak is mainly thermal; the energy carried by nonthermal electrons during the first peak seems to be comparable to the thermal energy of the second peak. The morphologies of X-ray images and their evolutions provide additional evidence for this causality. We conclude that two such peaks in the 12 - 25 keV light curve are good evidence for the chromospheric evaporation. However, the maximum time of the second peak is later than the end time of the first peak, suggesting that for some events, a modification of the traditional Neupert effect could be necessary by inclusion of a time delay, which might be partly related to the filling of the loop by evaporated material.

Dependence of large SEP events with different energies on the associated flares and CMEs

To investigate the dependence of large gradual solar energetic particle（SEP） events on the associated flares and coronal mass ejections（CMEs）, the correlation coefficients（CCs） between peak intensities of E 〉 10 MeV（I10）, E 〉 30 MeV（I30） and E 〉 50 MeV（I50） protons and soft X-ray（SXR） emission of associated flares and the speeds of associated CMEs in the three longitudinal areas W0–W39, W40–W70（hereafter the well connected region） and W71–W90 have been calculated.Classical correlation analysis shows that CCs between SXR emission and peak intensities of SEP events always reach their largest value in the well connected region and then decline dramatically in the longitudinal area outside the well connected region, suggesting that they may contribute to the production of SEPs in large SEP events. Both classical and partial correlation analyses show that SXR fluence is a better parameter describing the relationship between flares and SEP events. For large SEP events with source location in the well connected region, the CCs between SXR fluence and I10, I30 and I50 are0.58±0.12, 0.80±0.06 and 0.83±0.06 respectively, while the CCs between CME speed and I10, I30 and I50 are 0.56±0.12, 0.52±0.13 and 0.48±0.13 respectively. The partial correlation analyses show that in the well connected region, both CME shock and SXR fluence can significantly affect I10, but SXR peak flux makes no additional contribution. For E 〉 30 MeV protons with source location in the well connected region, only SXR fluence can significantly affect I30, and the CME shock makes a small contribution to I30, but SXR peak flux makes no additional contribution. For E 〉 50 MeV protons with source location in the well connected region, only SXR fluence can significantly affect I50, but both CME shock and SXR peak flux make no additional contribution. We conclude that these findings provide statistical evidence that for SEP events with source locations in the well connected region, a CME shock is only an effective accelerator for E 〈 30 MeV protons. However, flares are not only effective accelerators for E 〈 30 MeV protons, but also for E 〉 30 MeV protons, and E 〉 30 MeV protons may be mainly accelerated by concurrent flares.

Flares and magnetic non-potentiality of NOAA AR 11158

Magnetic non-potentiality is important for understanding flares and other solar activities in active regions （ARs）. Five non-potential parameters, i.e. electric current, current helicity, source field, photospheric free energy, and angular shear, are calculated to quantify the non-potentiality of NOAA AR 11158. Benefitting from the high spatial resolution, high cadence and continuous temporal coverage of vector mag- netograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory, both the long-term evolution of the AR and the rapid change during flares are studied. We confirm that, compared with the magnetic flux, the magnetic non-potentiality has a closer connection with the flare, and the emerging flux regions are important for understanding the magnetic non-potentiality and flares. The main re- suits are as follows. （1） The vortex in the source field directly displays the deflection of the horizontal magnetic field. The deflection corresponds to the fast rotating sunspot with a time delay, which suggests that the sunspot rotation leads to an increase in the non-potentiality. （2） Two areas that have evident changes in the azimuth of the vector magnetic field are found near the magnetic polarity inversion line. The change rates of the azimuth are about 1.3° h-1 and 3.6° h-1, respectively. （3） Rapid and prominent increases are found in the variation of helicity during four flares in the regions where their initial brightening occurs. The recovery of the increases takes 3-4 h for the two biggest flares （X2.2 and M6.6）, but only takes about 2 h for the two other smaller flares （M2.2 and M1.6）.

Dependence of anomalous resistivity on bulk drift velocity of electrons in the reconnecting current sheets in solar flares

Anomalous resistivity is critical for triggering fast magnetic reconnection in the nearly collisionless coronal plasma. Its nonlinear dependence on bulk drift velocity is usually assumed in MHD simulations. However, the mechanism for the production of anomalous resistivity and its evolution is still an open question. We numerically solved the one dimension Vlasov equation with the typical solar coronal parameters and realistic mass ratios to infer the relationship between anomalous resistivity and bulk drift velocity of electrons in the reconnecting current sheets as well as its non- linear characteristics. Our principal findings are summarized as follows： 1） the relationship between the anomalous resistivity and bulk drift velocity of electrons relative to ions may be described as ηmax=0.03724（vd/ve）^5.702Ωm for vd/ve in the range of 1.4-2.0 and ηmax=0.8746（vd/ve）^1.284Ωm for vd/ve in the range of 2.5-4.5;2）if drift velocity is just slightly larger than the threshold of ion-acoustic instability, the anomalous resistivity due to the wave-particle interactions is enhanced by about five orders as compared with classic resistivity due to Coulomb collisions, With the increase of drift velocity from 1.4ve to 4.5Ve, the anomalous resistivity continues to increase 100 times; 3） in the rise phase of unstable waves, the anomalous resistivity has the same order as the one estimated from quasi-linear theory; after saturation of unstable waves, the anomalous resistivity decreases at least about one order as com- pared with its peak value; 4） considering that the final velocity of electrons ejected out of the reconnecting current sheet （RCS） decreases with the distance from the neutral point in the neutral plane, the anomalous resistivity decreases with the distance from the neutral point, which is favorable for the Petschek-like reconnection to take place.

Dependence of E ≥ 100 MeV protons on the associated flares and CMEs

To investigate the possible solar source of high-energy protons, correlation coefficients between the peak intensities of E ≥ 100 MeV protons, I100, and the peak flux and fluence of solar soft X-ray（SXR） emission, and coronal mass ejection（CME） linear speed in the three longitudinal areas W0-W39, W40-W70 and W71-W90 have been calculated respectively. Classical correlation analysis shows that the correlation coefficients between CME speeds and I100 in the three longitudinal areas are0.28±0.21, 0.35±0.21 and 0.04±0.30 respectively. The classical correlation coefficients between I100 and SXR peak flux in the three longitudinal areas are 0.48±0.17, 0.72±0.13 and 0.02±0.30 respectively, while the correlation coefficients between I100 and SXR fluence in the three longitudinal areas are 0.25±0.21, 0.84±0.07 and 0.10±0.30 respectively. Partial correlation analysis shows that for solar proton events with source location in the well connected region（W40-W70）, only SXR fluence can significantly affect the peak intensity of E ≥ 100 MeV protons, but SXR peak flux has little influence on the peak intensities of E ≥ 100 MeV protons; moreover, CME speed has no influence on the peak intensities of E ≥ 100 MeV protons. We conclude that these findings provide statistical evidence that E ≥ 100 MeV protons may be mainly accelerated by concurrent flares.

A Statistical Study of Rapid Sunspot Structure Change Associated with Flares

We reported recently some rapid changes of sunspot structure in white-light （WL） associated with major flares. We extend the study to smaller events and present here results of a statistical study of this phenomenon. In total, we investigate 403 events from 1998 May 9 to 2004 July 17, including 40 X-class, 174 M-class, and 189 C-class flares. By monitoring the structure of the flaring active regions using the WL observations from the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer （TRACE）, we find that segments in the outer sunspot structure decayed rapidly right after many flares; and that, on the other hand, the central part of sunspots near the flare-associated magnetic neutral line became darkened. These rapid and permanent changes are evidenced in the time profiles of WL mean intensity and are not likely resulted from the flare emissions. Our study further shows that the outer sunspot structure decay as well as the central structure darkening are more likely to be detected in larger solar flares. For X-class flares, over 40% events show distinct sunspot structure change. For M- and C-class flares, this percentage drops to 17% and 10%, respectively. The results of this statistical study support our previously proposed reconnection picture, i.e., the flare-related magnetic fields evolve from a highly inclined to a more vertical configuration.

The breakdown of the power-law frequency distributions for the hard X-ray peak count rates of solar flares

The frequency distribution for several characteristics of a solar flare obeys a power law only above a certain threshold, below which there is an apparent loss of small scale events presumably caused by limited instrumental sensitivity and th：e corresponding event selection bias. It is also possible that this deviation in the power law can have a physical origin in the source. We propose two fitting models incorpo- rating a power law distribution with a low count rate cutoff plus a noise component for the frequency distribution of the hard X-ray peak count rate of all solar flare sam- ples obtained with HXRBS/SMM and BATSE/CGRO observations. Our new fitting method produces the same power-law index as previously developed methods, a low cutoff of the power-law function and its corresponding noise level, which is consistent with measurements of the actual noise level of the hard X-ray count rate. We found that the fitted low cutoff appears to be related to the noise level, i.e., flares are only recognized when their peak count rate is 3or greater than noise. Therefore, the fitted low cutoff, which is smaller than the aforementioned threshold, might be attributed to selection bias, and probably not to the actual count rate cutoff in flares at smaller scales. Whether or not the actual low cutoff physically exists needs to be checked by future observations with increased sensitivities.

Magnetic field changes associated with three successive M-class solar flares on 2002 July 26

With an extensive analysis,we study the temporal evolution of magnetic flux during three successive M-class flares in two adjacent active regions：NOAA 10039 and 10044.The primary data are full disk longitudinal magnetograms observed by SOHO/MDI.All three flares are observed to be accompanied by magnetic flux changes.The changes occurred immediately or within 1 ～ 10 minutes after the starting time of the flares,indicating that the changes are obvious consequences of the solar flares.Although changes in many points are intrinsic in magnetic flux,for some sites,it is caused by a rapid expansion motion of magnetic flux.For the second flare,the associated change is more gradual compared with the ＇step-function＇ reported in literature.Furthermore,we use the data observed by the Imaging Vector Magnetograph（IVM） at Mees Solar Observatory to check possible line profile changes during the flares.The results from the IVM data confirm the flux changes obtained from the MDI data.A series of line profiles were obtained from the IVM＇s observations and analyzed for flux change sites.We find that the fluctuations in the width,depth and central wavelength of the lines are less than 5.0 even at the flare＇s core.No line profile change is observed during or after the flare.We conclude that the magnetic field changes associated with the three solar flares are not caused by flare emission.

On the power-law distributions of X-ray fluxes from solar flares observed with GOES

The power-law frequency distributions of the peak flux of solar flare X-ray emission have been studied extensively and attributed to a system having self-organized criticality （SOC）. In this paper, we first show that, so long as the shape of the normalized light curve is not correlated with the peak flux, the flux histogram of solar flares also follows a power-law distribution with the same spectral index as the power- law frequency distribution of the peak flux, which may partially explain why power-law distributions are ubiquitous in the Universe. We then show that the spectral indexes of the histograms of soft X-ray fluxes observed by GOES satellites in two different energy channels are different： the higher energy channel has a harder distribution than the lower energy channel, which challenges the universal power-law distribution predicted by SOC models and implies a very soft distribution of thermal energy content of plasmas probed by the GOES satellites. The temperature （T） distribution, on the other hand, approaches a power-law dis- tribution with an index of 2 for high values of T. Hence the application of SOC models to the statistical properties of solar flares needs to be revisited.

The Formation and Evolution of the Sun and the Source of Star Energy as Well as the Sunspots and Flares of the Sun

Nebula theory is the most widely accepted hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System. This theoryholds that the Sun is formed from a collapsed gas cloud 4.57 billion years ago;when the core temperature of the gas cloud rises to 10million K, the thermonuclear reaction of hydrogen fusion into helium is ignited, then the Sun become a star;once the hydrogen in thecore is exhausted, the life of the star will end. But the limited hydrogen element obviously cannot satisfy such a long-termthermonuclear reaction, in order to sustain long-term thermonuclear reactions, a steady stream of fuel must be obtained from space.So the existing hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System has serious defects. Thus the author has studied theformation of the Moon, the Earth and the Sun, and discovered the formation of the Sun and the real source of star energy. The authorcould also explain many solar activity phenomena such as sunspots, flares, prominences, etc.

The Role of Nuclei-Nuclei Interactions in the Production of Gamma-ray Lines in Solar Flares

Dramatic extensions of experimental possibilities (spacecraft RHESSI, CORONAS-F and others) in solar gamma-ray astronomy call for urgent, detailed theoretical consideration of a set of physical problems of solar activity and solar-terrestrial relationships that earlier may have only been outlined. Here we undertake a theoretical analysis of issues related to the production of gamma-radiation in the processes of interactions of energetic (accelerated) heavy and middle nuclei with the nuclei of the solar atmosphere (the so-called i-j interactions). We also make an estimate of the contribution of these interactions to the formation of nuclear and isotopic abundances of the solar atmosphere in the range of light and rare elements. The analysis is carried out for solar flares in the wide range of their intensities. We compare our theoretical estimates with RHESSI observations for the flare of 2002 July 23. It was shown that the 24Mg gamma-ray emission in this event was produced by the newly generated Mg nuclei. With a high probability, the gamma-ray line emission of 28Si nuclei from this flare was generated by the same processes.

Ensemble prediction model of solar proton events associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections

An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events （SPEs）, combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections （CMEs）, is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux, the duration and the longitude. In addition, CMEs are parameterized by the width, the speed and the measurement position angle. The importance of each parameter for the occurrence of SPEs is estimated by the information gain ratio. We find that the CME width and speed are more informative than the flare’s peak flux and duration. As the physical mechanism of SPEs is not very clear, a hidden naive Bayes approach, which is a probability-based calculation method from the field of machine learning, is used to build the prediction model from the observational data. As is known, SPEs originate from solar flares and/or shock waves associated with CMEs. Hence, we first build two base prediction models using the properties of solar flares and CMEs, respectively. Then the outputs of these models are combined to generate the ensemble prediction model of SPEs. The ensemble prediction model incorporating the complementary information of solar flares and CMEs achieves better performance than each base prediction model taken separately.

The Relationship between Magnetic Gradient and Magnetic Shear in Five Super Active Regions Producing Great Flares

We study the magnetic structure of five well-known active regions that produced great flares （X5 or larger）. The six flares under investigation are the X12 flare on 1991 June 9 in AR 6659, the X5.7 flare on 2000 July 14 in AR 9077, the X5.6 flare on 2001 April 6 in AR 9415, the X5.3 flare on 2001 August 25 in AR 9591, the X17 flare on 2003 October 28 and the X10 flare on 2003 October 29, both in AR 10486. The last five events had corresponding LASCO observations and were all associated with Halo CMEs. We analyzed vector magnetograms from Big Bear Solar Observatory, Huairou Solar Observing Station, Marshall Space Flight Center and Mees Solar Observatory. In particular, we studied the magnetic gradient derived from line-of-sight magnetograms and magnetic shear derived from vector magnetograms, and found an apparent correlation between these two parameters at a level of about 90%. We found that the magnetic gradient could be a better proxy than the shear for predicting where a major flare might occur： all six flares occurred in neutral lines with maximum gradient. The mean gradient of the flaring neutral lines ranges from 0.14 to 0.50 G km^-1, 2.3 to 8 times the average value for all the neutral lines in the active regions. If we use magnetic shear as the proxy, the flaring neutral line in at least one, possibly two, of the six events would be mis-identified.

The relationships of solar flares with both sunspot and geomagnetic activity

The relationships between solar flare parameters （total importance, time duration, flare index, and flux） and sunspot activity （R z ） as well as those between geomagnetic activity （aa index） and the flare parameters can be well described by an integral response model with the response time scales of about 8 and 13 months, respectively. Compared with linear relationships, the correlation coefficients of the flare parameters with R z , of aa with the flare parameters, and of aa with R z based on this model have increased about 6%, 17%, and 47% on average, respectively. The time delays between the flare parameters with respect to R z , aa to the flare parameters, and aa to R z at their peaks in a solar cycle can be predicted in part by this model （82%, 47%, and 78%, respectively）. These results may be further improved when using a cosine filter with a wider window. It implies that solar flares are related to the accumulation of solar magnetic energy in the past through a time decay factor. The above results may help us to understand the mechanism of solar flares and to improve the prediction of the solar flares.

After Effects光效插件解析——Optical Flares

After Effects开发了一款强大的制作光斑效果的插件——Optical Flares,它不仅能为影视后期工作者创建真实镜头的光晕效果,还弥补了诸如Sapphire蓝宝石及Knoll Light Factory灯光工厂插件的不足。与After Effects三维场景相结合,Optical Flares可设计制作出各种精致、完整、逼真的镜头光晕特效。通过对Optical Flares中各项功能的解析,展现了其在光效制作中的强大优势。