The Response of Anomalous Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux Patterns Related to Drought and Flood in Southern China to Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

With the extreme drought(flood)event in southern China from July to August in 2022(1999)as the research object,based on the comprehensive diagnosis and composite analysis on the anomalous drought and flood years from July to August in 1961-2022,it is found that there are significant differences in the characteristics of the vertically integrated moisture flux(VIMF)anomaly circulation pattern and the VIMF convergence(VIMFC)anomaly in southern China in drought and flood years,and the VIMFC,a physical quantity,can be regarded as an indicative physical factor for the"strong signal"of drought and flood in southern China.Specifically,in drought years,the VIMF anomaly in southern China is an anticyclonic circulation pattern and the divergence characteristics of the VIMFC are prominent,while those are opposite in flood years.Based on the SST anomaly in the typical draught year of 2022 in southern China and the SST deviation distribution characteristics of abnormal draught and flood years from 1961 to 2022,five SST high impact areas(i.e.,the North Pacific Ocean,Northwest Pacific Ocean,Southwest Pacific Ocean,Indian Ocean,and East Pacific Ocean)are selected via the correlation analysis of VIMFC and the global SST in the preceding months(May and June)and in the study period(July and August)in 1961-2022,and their contributions to drought and flood in southern China are quantified.Our study reveals not only the persistent anomalous variation of SST in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean but also its impact on the pattern of moisture transport.Furthermore,it can be discovered from the positive and negative phase fitting of SST that the SST composite flow field in high impact areas can exhibit two types of anomalous moisture transport structures that are opposite to each other,namely an anticyclonic(cyclonic)circulation pattern anomaly in southern China and the coastal areas of east China.These two types of opposite anomalous moisture transport structures can not only drive the formation of drought(flood)in southern China but also exert its influence on the persistent development of the extreme weather.

Variation Characteristics of Droughts and Floods in Deyang Area in the Past 30 years

Based on the data of annual average precipitation in Deyang area and its five stations (Mianzhu, Deyang, Zhongjiang, Shifang and Guanghan) from 1984 to 2013, the annual precipitation anomaly percentage was calculated, and then the flood and drought situation in Deyang area was graded to discuss the variation characteristics of droughts and floods in the past 30 years. The results show that the cycle of droughts and floods in Deyang was about 3-5 a. The precipitation anomaly percentage indicates that the climate in Deyang area of Sichuan tended to be dry slowly in the past 30 years, and Deyang gradually entered a dry and warm period.

Drought and Flood Analysis and Impact on Food Production in Fushun

Based on monthly precipitation data during 1961-2008 in 50 stations in Fushun,drought and flood indicators of three counties were calculated with Z index method. The geographical and seasonal distribution characteristics of Fushun were analyzed,and so was the impact of droughts and floods on food production. It shows that,since 1961,there are 7 poor harvest years in Fushun,with quadrennial caused by continuous seasonal floods or droughts,two years by year drought,one year by summer flood.

The Analysis on the Features of the Atmospheric Circulation in Preceding Winters for the Summer Drought and Flooding in the Yangtze And Huaihe River Valley

Based on the annual variation of the rainfall departure percentage in summer in the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River valley, 7 cases for the abnormal drought and flooding summers (the drought years: 1981. 1984, 1985; the flooding yearst 1980, 1982, 1983, 1987) are selected. First we analyse the general circulation characteristics of the summer drought and flooding, and then the evolution processes of the general circulation patterns from preceding winters to summers are studied. It is found that during the two kinds of preceding winters for the drought and flooding summer, not only the general circulation patterns in the high-mid latitudes, the local Hadley cells in East Asia but also the activities of the cold surge in the lower latitude are different obviously. Spring, especially April, is the turning period of the general circulation in preceding winter for the drought or nooding summer evolution towards opposite direction. Hereafter, the drought or flooding circulation pattern is established and developed.

The Relation between Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation and Summer Severe Flood and Drought in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin

The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) is studied during the severe flood and drought years of the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the precipitation data in China. The results show that the upper-level (200 hPa) ISO pattern for severe flood (drought) is characterized by an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the southern Tibetan Plateau and a cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation over the northern Tibetan Plateau. The lower-level (850 hPa) ISO pattern is characterized by an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the area south of the Changjiang River, the South China Sea, and the Western Pacific, and a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation from the area north of the Changjiang River to Japan. These low-level ISO circulation patterns are the first modes of the ISO wind field according to the vector EOF expansion with stronger amplitude of the EOF1 time coefficient in severe flood years than in severe drought years. The analyses also reveal that at 500 hPa and 200 hPa, the atmospheric ISO activity over the Changjiang-Huaihe River basin, North China, and the middle-high latitudes north of China is stronger for severe flood than for severe drought. The ISO meridional wind over the middle-high latitude regions can propagate southwards and meet with the northward propagating ISO meridional wind from lower latitude regions over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin during severe flood years, but not during severe drought years.

Future Changes of Drought and Flood Events in China under a Global Warming Scenario

This study investigates the impact of global warming on drought/flood patterns in China at the end of the 21st century based on the simulations of 22 global climate models and a regional climate model(RegCM3) under the SRES(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario.The standardized precipitation index(SPI),which has well performance in monitoring the drought/flood characteristics(in terms of their intensity,duration,and spatial extent) in China,is used in this study.The projected results of 22 coupled models and the RegCM3 simulation are consistent.These models project a decrease in the frequency of droughts in most parts of northern China and a slight increase in the frequency in some parts of southern China.Considering China as a whole,the spatial extents of droughts are projected to be significantly reduced.In contrast,future flood events over most parts of China are projected to occur more frequently with stronger intensity and longer duration than those prevalent currently.Additionally,the spatial extents of flood events are projected to significantly increase.

Numerical Study of Ural Blocking High＇s Effect Upon Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation and East China Flood and Drought

In terms of Kuo-Qian pesigma incorporated coordinate five-level primitive equation spheric band (70°N-30°S)model with the Ural high's effect introduced into it as initial and boundary conditions, study is made of the high's influence on Asian summer monsoon circulation and dryness / wetness of eastern China based on case contrast andcontrol experiments. Rusults show that as an excitation source, the blocking high produces a SE-NW stationarywavetrain with its upper-air atnicyclonic divergent circulation oust over a lower-level trough zone) precisely over themiddle to lower reaches of the Changjiang River, enhancing East Asian westerly jet, a situation that contributes toPerturbation growth, causing an additional secondary meridional circulation at the jet entrance, which intensifies theupdraft in the monsoon area. As such, the high's presence and its excited steady wavetrain represent the large-scalekey factors and acting mechanisms for the rainstorm over the Changjiang-Huaihe River catchment in the easternpart of the land.

DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF PERSISTENT DROUGHT/FLOOD EVENTS IN SUMMER OVER THE TWO-LAKE REGION OF CHINA

Based on the daily regional mean rainfall,the Z-index method is used to identify persistent flood and drought events lasting for at least 10 days over a region where Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake sit(referred to as the"two-lake region"hereafter).The National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)reanalysis data are then utilized to perform a preliminary diagnostic analysis on these events.The results indicate that the composite standardized geopotential height at 500 hPa presents two different meridional wave trains from north to south over the East Asian-Pacific region,i.e.,a"-+-"pattern for the droughts and a"+-+"pattern for the floods,respectively.The developing,maintaining and decaying phases in the drought and flood events are closely related to the intensity and location of a subtropical high and an extra-tropical blocking high.It is shown that the East Asian summer monsoon is strong(weak)with the occurrence of persistent drought(flood)events.Droughts(floods)are accompanied by a weak(strong)tropical convergent system and a strong(weak)subtropical convergent system.Furthermore,the persistent drought(flood)events are associated with a divergence(convergence)of vertically integrated water vapor flux.In the vertical profile of water vapor flux,divergence(convergence)in the mid-and lower-levels and convergence(divergence)in the higher levels are evident in the droughts(floods).Both the divergence in the droughts and the convergence in floods are strongest at 850 hPa.

Mechanism and Forecasting Methods for Severe Droughts and Floods in Songhua River Basin in China

The influence of various factors, mechanisms, and principles affecting runoff are summarized as periodic law, random law, and basin-wide law. Periodic law is restricted by astronomical factors, random law is restricted by atmospheric circulation, and basin-wide law is restricted by underlying surface. The commensurability method was used to identify the almost period law, the wave method was applied to deducing the random law, and the precursor method was applied in order to forecast runoff magnitude for the current year. These three methods can be used to assess each other and to forecast runoff. The system can also be applied to forecasting wet years, normal years and dry years for a particular year as well as forecasting years when floods with similar characteristics of previous floods, can be expected. Based on hydrological climate data of Baishan (1933-2009) and Nierji (1886-2009) in the Songhua River Basin, the forecasting results for 2010 show that it was a wet year in the Baishan Reservoir, similar to the year of 1995; it was a secondary dry year in the Nierji Reservoir, similar to the year of 1980. The actual water inflow into the Baishan Reservoir was 1.178 × 10 10 m 3 in 2010, which was markedly higher than average inflows, ranking as the second highest in history since records began. The actual water inflow at the Nierji station in 2010 was 9.96 × 10 9 m 3 , which was lower than the average over a period of many years. These results indicate a preliminary conclusion that the methods proposed in this paper have been proved to be reasonable and reliable, which will encourage the application of the chief reporter release system for each basin. This system was also used to forecast inflows for 2011, indicating a secondary wet year for the Baishan Reservoir in 2011, similar to that experienced in 1991. A secondary wet year was also forecast for the Nierji station in 2011, similar to that experienced during 1983. According to the nature of influencing factors, mechanisms and forecasting methods and the service objects, mid-to long-term hydrological forecasting can be divided into two classes:mid-to long-term runoff forecasting, and severe floods and droughts forecasting. The former can be applied to quantitative forecasting of runoff, which has important applications for water release schedules. The latter, i.e., qualitative disaster forecasting, is important for flood control and drought relief. Practical methods for forecasting severe droughts and floods are discussed in this paper.

CHARACTERISTICS OF RAINFALL VARIATION OVER EAST CHINA FOR THE LAST 50 YEARS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH DROUGHTS AND FLOODS

With the precipitation data of 113 stations in East China during the last 50 years,the characteristics of the precipitation,including Precipitation Concentration Degree (PCD) and Precipitation Concentration Period (PCP) and their tendencies,are analyzed.The results show that the PCD in the northern part of the region is markedly higher than that in the southern part,but the PCP in the south is much earlier than that in the north by about one and a half months,which displays significant regional differences in precipitation.With the global warming,precipitation over East China shows an increasing tendency,but PCD displays a trend that is neither increasing nor decreasing.At the same time,the PCP is later than before,which can be mainly found in Jiangxi and southern Henan provinces.As a result,there are strong associations between the precipitation,PCD and PCP,which can be shown in the years with more precipitation,stronger PCD and later-than-usual PCP.In a word,the abnormal distribution of precipitation,PCP,and PCD over East China results in more extreme events of precipitation and more droughts and floods.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ATMOSPHERIC HEATING SOURCE/SINK ANOMALIES OF ASIAN MONSOON AND FLOOD/DROUGHT IN THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN IN THE MEIYU PERIOD

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and a 30-year precipitation dataset of observed daily rainfall from 109 gauge stations are utilized in this paper.Using the REOF we analyzed the spatial distribution of precipitation in the 109 stations in the Yangtze River Basin in Meiyu periods from 1978 to 2007.The result showed that the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin can be divided into the south and north part.As a result,relationships between an atmospheric heating source(hereafter called <Q_1>) over the Asian region and the precipitation on the south and north side of Yangtze River in Meiyu periods were separately studied in this paper.The results are shown as follows.The flood/drought to the north of Yangtze River(NYR) was mainly related to the <Q_1> over the East Asia summer monsoon region:when the <Q_1> over the Philippines through Western Pacific and the south China was weakened(strengthened),it would probably result in the flood(drought) in NYR;and the precipitation on the south side of Yangtze River(SYR)was related to the <Q_1> over the east Asia and Indian summer monsoon region:when the <Q_1> over the areas from south China to the northern East China Sea and Yellow Sea and south-eastern Japan was strengthened(weakened),and the <Q_1> over the areas from the Bay of Bengal to south-eastern Tibetan Plateau was weakened(strengthened),it will lead to flood(drought) in SYR.

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Dominant Drought/Flood Modes and the Associated Atmospheric Circulation and Ocean Events in Rainy Season over the East of China

By using Season-reliant Empirical Orthogonal Function (S-EOF) analysis, three dominant modes of the spatial-temporal evolution of the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are revealed for the period of 1960-2004. The first two leading modes occur during the turnabout phase of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) decaying year, but the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are different due to the role of the Indian Ocean (IO). The first leading mode appears closely correlated with the ENSO events. In the decaying year of El Nino, the associated western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone located over the Philippine Sea persists from the previous winter to the next early summer, transports warm and moist air toward the southern Yangtze River in China, and leads to wet conditions over this entire region. Therefore, the precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a 'Southern Flood and Northern Drought' pattern over East China. On the other hand, the basin-wide Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) plays a crucial role in prolonging the impact of ENSO on the second mode during the ENSO decaying summer. The Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) warming persists through summer and unleashes its influence, which forces a Matsuno-Gill pattern in the upper troposphere. Over the subtropical western North Pacific, an anomalous anticyclone forms in the lower troposphere. The southerlies on the northwest flank of this anticyclone increase the moisture transport onto central China, leading to abundant rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys. The anomalous anticyclone causes dry conditions over South China and the South China Sea (SCS). The precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a 'Northern Flood and Southern Drought' pattern over East China. Therefore, besides the ENSO event the IOBM is an important factor to influence the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China. The third mode is positively correlated with the tropical SSTA in the Indian Ocean from the spring of preceding year(-1) to the winter of following year(+1), but not related to the ENSO events. The positive SSTA in the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea persists from spring to autumn, leading to weak north-south and land-sea thermal contrasts, which may weaken the intensity of the East Asia summer monsoon. The weakened rainfall over the northern Indian monsoon region may link to the third spatial mode through the 'Silk Road' teleconnection or a part of circumglobal teleconnection (CGT). The physical mechanisms that reveal these linkages remain elusive and invite further investigation.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 30 TO 60 DAY OSCILLATION OF ATMOSPHERIC HEAT SOURCE AND THE DROUGHT AND FLOOD EVENTS IN JUNE IN THE SOUTH OF CHINA

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the observed precipitation data in the south of China from 1958 to 2000,the impact of 30 to 60 day oscillation of atmospheric heat sources on the drought and flood events in June in the south of China is discussed.During the flood(drought) events,there exists an anomalous low-frequency anticyclone(cyclone) at the low level of the troposphere over the South China Sea and the northwestern Pacific,accompanied with anomalous low-frequency heat sinks(heat sources),while there exists an anomalous low-frequency cyclone(anticyclone) with anomalous heat sources(sinks) over the area from the south of China to the south of Japan.On average,the phase evolution of the low-frequency in drought events is 7 to 11 days ahead of that in flood events in May to June in the south of China.In flood events,low-frequency heat sources and cyclones are propagated northward from the southern South China Sea,northwestward from the warm pool of the western Pacific and westward from the northwestern Pacific around 140°E,which have very important impact on the abundant rainfall in June in the south of China.However,in drought events,the northward propagations of the low-frequency heat sources and cyclones from the South China Sea and its vicinity are rather late compared with those in flood events,and there is no obvious westward propagation of the heat sources from the northwestern Pacific.The timing of the low-frequency heat source propagation has remarkable impact on the June rainfall in the south of China.

SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION AND VARIATION TENDENCY OF DROUGHTS AND FLOODS IN HUNAN PROVINCE DURING THE PAST 36 YEARS

Using the 1970-2005 annual precipitation and evaporation data at 80 gauge stations across Hunan province,this work analyzes the spatial distribution and variation tendency of the local droughts and floods using linear regression,wavelet analysis,abrupt change,clusters,Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and rotated EOF (REOF).Results show that there are four dry areas and three wet areas in Hunan.The whole province exhibits a moistening trend except some small areas in western,eastern and southern Hunan.The most prominent feature of annual precipitation is that the whole province basically displays a consistent variation tendency,as far as the dominant EOF mode is concerned.In addition,the spatial features of the other EOF modes include dry-wet differences,e.g.wet (or dry) in the north versus dry (or wet) in the south,wet (or dry) in the center and dry (or wet) in the surrounding areas.The distribution of the ratios of evaporation to precipitation exhibits both common features as well as spatial differences,which can be classified into four types:South Hunan,North Hunan,Northeast Hunan,and Central Hunan.There is an abrupt change from dry to wet patterns in the early 1990s.Generally,the drought-flood distribution presents variations of three periods.In the late 2000s,Hunan province will be in a period of drought,followed by a period of flood.

Dryness-wetness change and regional differentiation of flood-drought disasters in Guangdong during 1480-1940AD

Based on the historical records of the drought and flood disasters during 1480-1940AD, this paper reconstructs the sequences of wetness index （WI） and drought and flood disasters. We find a good identical relationship between the fluctuation of WI sequence and the δ^18O record of the GISP2 ice core in Greenland, which shows an apparent monsoonal disposal pattern of moisture and temperature. By applying the Morlet Wavelet Transform Method to deal with the data, several apparent periodicities, such as 7-8a, 11-15a, 20-23a and ca 50a, are revealed, among which some can be attributed to the solar forcing. Based on results of Cluster Analysis of dry-wet changes, we resume the regional differentiation pattern of flood-drought disasters all over Guangdong during different climatic intervals in the LIA and, find the western and northern parts of Guangdong have undergone drastic changes in drought-flood regional differentiation, but the eastern part is relatively stable, and the area of the Pearl River Delta shows stable condition of more flood disasters.

Water vapor transport over China and its relationship with drought and flood in Yangtze River Basin

The characteristics of water vapor transport(WVT) over China and its relationship with precipitation anomalies in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB) are analyzed by using the upper-air station data in China and ECMWF reanalysis data in summer from 1981 to 2002.The results indicate that the first mode of the vertically integrated WVT is significant whose spatial distribution presents water vapor convergence or divergence in the YRB.When the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) is strong and shifts southward and westward, the Indian Monsoon Low Pressure(IMLP) is weak, and the northern part of China stands behind the middle and high latitude trough, a large amount of water vapor from the Bay of Bengal(BOB), the South China Sea(SCS) and the western Pacific forms a strong and steady southwest WVT band and meets the strong cold water vapor from northern China in the YRB, thus it is likely to cause flood in the YRB.When WPSH is weak and shifts northward and eastward, IMLP is strong, and there is nearly straight west wind over the middle and high latitude, it is unfavorable for oceanic vapor extending to China and no steady and strong southwest WVT exists in the region south of the YRB.Meanwhile, the cold air from northern China is weak and can hardly be transported to the YRB.This brings on no obvious water vapor convergence, and then less precipitation in the YRB.

A Typical Mode of Seasonal Circulation Transition: A Climatic View of the Abrupt Transition from Drought to Flood over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley in the Late Spring and Early Summer of 2011

In this study, the seasonal transition of precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yang-tze River Valley (YRV) from late spring to early summer is investigated. The results show that the seasonal transition of precipitation exhibits multi-modes. One of these modes is characterized by an abrupt transition from drought to flood (ATDF) over the middle and lower reaches of the YRV in the seasonal transition of precipitation. It is shown that the ATDF event from May to June 2011 is simply one prominent case of the ATDF mode. The ATDF mode exhibits an obvious decadal variability. The mode has occurred more frequently since 1979, and its amplitude has apparently strengthened since 1994. From the climatic view, the ATDF mode configures a typical seasonal circulation transition from winter to summer, for which the winter circulations are prolonged, and the summer circulations with the rainy season are built up early over the YRV.

INFLUENCE FACTORS AND PREDICTION METHOD ON FLOOD/DROUGHT DURING THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON IN SOUTH CHINA

By using the significance test of two-dimensional wind field anomalies and Monte Carlo simulation experiment scheme, the significance features of wind field anomalies are investigated in relation to flood/drought during the annually first rainy season in south China. Results show that westem Pacific subtropical high and wind anomalies over the northeast of Lake Baikal and central Indian Ocean are important factors. Wind anomalies over the northem India in January and the northwest Pacific in March may be strong prediction signals. Study also shows that rainfall in south China bears a close relation to the geopotential height filed over the northern Pacific in March.

THE PRELIMINARY STUDY ON POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF FLOOD AND DROUGHT IN CHINA IN THE CASE OF GLOBAL WARMING

According to Prof. Zhu Kezhen’s(Chu K.C.)historical climatic division,the last 500 years in China can be divided into several alternately cold and warm periods.The periods of 1470-1520,1620-1720,1840-1890 had cold winters,while those of 1550-1600,1770-1830 had warm winters.Based on such division,in four kinds of periods,i.e.cold, warm,cold-warm,and warmcold (transition period),the differences between flood/drought degree in 120 stations in China and average of flood/drought degree in the last 500 years have been calculated. Positive anomaly indicates drought-prone area,while negative anomaly indicates flood-prone area. This historical experience provides a background to analyze the possible scenarios in the case of global warming in the future.The final results suggest that in the case of global warming the hazards of flood probably increase in many parts of China,such as southeast coast area,southwest,northwest, some parts of northeast and inner Mongolia while the hazards of drought probably decrease in the North China Plain,the middle reaches of the Huanghe River and its southern adjacent area. This distribution is basically consistent with that of precipitation in warming periods in this century and that resulted from climatic model in the case of CO2 doubling.

Analysis of Precipitation and Drought-Flood in Yalu River Estuary and Donggang Offshore Area

Based on the mesoscale surface observation data,the relationship between rainfall and drought-flood in Yalu River and Donggang offshore area was analyzed. Analysis on atmospheric circulation showed that the movement of weather system affected the production of precipitation directly and resulted into the formation of drought and flood years. On the basis of analyzing general law above,a further analysis on the relationship of monsoon and drought-flood was carried out,as well as the effect of topography on rainfall.