Flood Forecasting and Warning System: A Survey of Models and Their Applications in West Africa

Flood events occurrences and frequencies in the world are of immense worry for the stability of the economy and life safety. Africa continent is the third continent the most negatively affected by the flood events after Asia and Europe. Eastern Africa is the most hit in Africa. However, Africa continent is at the early stage in term of flood forecasting models development and implementation. Very few hydrological models for flood forecasting are available and implemented in Africa for the flood mitigation. And for the majority of the cases, they need to be improved because of the time evolution. Flash flood in Bamako (Mali) has been putting both human life and the economy in jeopardy. Studying this phenomenon, as to propose applicable solutions for its alleviation in Bamako is a great concern. Therefore, it is of upmost importance to know the existing scientific works related to this situation in Mali and elsewhere. The main aim was to point out the various solutions implemented by various local and international institutions, in order to fight against the flood events. Two types of methods are used for the flood events adaptation: the structural and non-structural methods. The structural methods are essentially based on the implementation of the structures like the dams, dykes, levees, etc. The problem of these methods is that they may reduce the volume of water that will inundate the area but are not efficient for the prediction of the coming floods and cannot alert the population with any lead time in advance. The non-structural methods are the one allowing to perform the prediction with acceptable lead time. They used the hydrological rainfall-runoff models and are the widely methods used for the flood adaptation. This review is more accentuated on the various types non-structural methods and their application in African countries in general and West African countries in particular with their strengths and weaknesses. Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV), Hydrologic Engineer Center Hydrologic Model System (HEC-HMS) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are the hydrological models that are the most widely used in West Africa for the purpose of flood forecasting. The easily way of calibration and the weak number of input data make these models appropriate for the West Africa region where the data are scarce and often with bad quality. These models when implemented and applied, can predict the coming floods, allow the population to adapt and mitigate the flood events and reduce considerably the impacts of floods especially in terms of loss of life.

Flood Forecasting of Malaysia Kelantan River using Support Vector Regression Technique

The rainstorm is believed to contribute flood disasters in upstream catchments,resulting in further consequences in downstream area due to rise of river water levels.Forecasting for flood water level has been challenging,present-ing complex task due to its nonlinearities and dependencies.This study proposes a support vector machine regression model,regarded as a powerful machine learning-based technique to forecast flood water levels in downstream area for different lead times.As a case study,Kelantan River in Malaysia has been selected to validate the proposed model.Four water level stations in river basin upstream were identified as input variables.A river water level in downstream area was selected as output of flood forecasting model.A comparison with several bench-marking models,including radial basis function(RBF)and nonlinear autoregres-sive with exogenous input(NARX)neural network was performed.The results demonstrated that in terms of RMSE error,NARX model was better for the proposed models.However,support vector regression(SVR)demonstrated a more consistent performance,indicated by the highest coefficient of determination value in twelve-hour period ahead of forecasting time.The findings of this study signified that SVR was more capable of addressing the long-term flood forecasting problems.

Integrating VGI and 2D hydraulic models into a data assimilation framework for real time flood forecasting and mapping

Crowdsourced data can effectively observe environmental and urban ecosystem processes.The use of data produced by untrained people into flood forecasting models may effectively allow Early Warning Systems(EWS)to better perform while support decision-making to reduce the fatalities and economic losses due to inundation hazard.In this work,we develop a Data Assimilation(DA)method integrating Volunteered Geographic Information(VGI)and a 2D hydraulic model and we test its performances.The proposed framework seeks to extend the capabilities and performances of standard DA works,based on the use of traditional in situ sensors,by assimilating VGI while managing and taking into account the uncertainties related to the quality,and the location and timing of the entire set of observational data.The November 2012 flood in the Italian Tiber River basin was selected as the case study.Results show improvements of the model in terms of uncertainty with a significant persistence of the model updating after the integration of the VGI,even in the case of use of few-selected observations gathered from social media.This will encourage further research in the use of VGI for EWS considering the exponential increase of quality and quantity of smartphone and social media user worldwide.

Coupling the Xinanjiang model with geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph for flood forecasting in northeast China

The Xinanjiang(XAJ)model has been successfully applied in humid and semi-humid regions.Considering the geomorphologic factors to accurately estimate floods,this study adopted the geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph(GIUH)method to calculate the surface runoff instead of the experience unit hydrograph(EUH)in the original model.The geomorphologic factors of the case study basin were obtained by using a digital elevation model(DEM)and the Terrain analysis using Digital Elevation Models(TauDEM).Furthermore,the dynamic Muskingum model was used for the channel flood routing.This study focused on the simulation of heavy precipitation and floods over the Chong River,which is a tributary river to the Songhua River on the right bank in northeast China.The detailed steps of the method were shown,up to the estimated value of flood runoff discharges and flood peaks and their comparison with observed values.The average deterministic coefficients(DCs)of model calibration and validation were 0.89 and 0.83,respectively.The results show that the model precision is high and the model is feasible for flood forecasting.Lastly,some methodological perspectives to enhance the method are presented.

Analysis of Forecast and Early Warning of Flood in Medium and Small Rivers

Flooding of small and medium rivers is caused by environmental factors like rainfall and soil loosening.With the development and application of technologies such as the Internet of Things and big data,the disaster supervision and management of large river basins in China has improved over the years.However,due to the frequent floods in small and medium-sized rivers in our country,the current prediction and early warning of small and medium-sized rivers is not accurate enough;it is difficult to realize real-time monitoring of small and medium-sized rivers,and it is also impossible to obtain corresponding data and information in time.Therefore,the construction and application of small and medium-sized river prediction and early warning systems should be further improved.This paper presents an analysis and discussion on flood forecasting and early warning systems for small and medium-sized rivers in detail,and corresponding strategies to improve the effect of forecasting and early warning systems are proposed.

Skilful Forecasts of Summer Rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin from November

Variability in the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River basin,with potentially devastating impacts.Early forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-makers,supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across eastern China.This paper demonstrates that the EASM is predictable in a dynamical forecast model from the preceding November,and that this allows skilful forecasts of summer mean rainfall in the Yangtze River basin at a lead time of six months.The skill for May–June–July rainfall is of a similar magnitude to seasonal forecasts initialised in spring,although the skill in June–July–August is much weaker and not consistently significant.However,there is some evidence for enhanced skill following El Niño events.The potential for decadal-scale variability in forecast skill is also examined,although we find no evidence for significant variation.

Evaluation of Tianji and ECMWF high-resolution precipitation forecasts for extreme rainfall event in Henan in July 2021

The extreme rainfall event of July 17 to 22, 2021 in Henan Province, China, led to severe urban waterlogging and flood disasters. This study investigated the performance of high-resolution weather forecasts in predicting this extreme event and the feasibility of weather forecast-based hydrological forecasts. To achieve this goal, high-resolution precipitation forecasts from the Tianji weather system and the forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were evaluated with the spatial verification metrics of structure, amplitude, and location. The results showed that Tianji weather forecasts accurately predicted the amplitude of 12-h accumulated precipitation with a lead time of 12 h. The location and structure of the rainfall areas in Tianji forecasts were closer to the observations than ECMWF forecasts. Tianji hourly precipitation forecasts were also more accurate than ECMWF hourly forecasts, especially at lead times shorter than 8 h. The precipitation forecasts were used as the inputs to a hydrological model to evaluate their hydrological applications. The results showed that the runoff forecasts driven by Tianji weather forecasts could effectively predict the extreme flood event. The runoff forecasts driven by Tianji forecasts were more accurate than those driven by ECMWF forecasts in terms of amplitude and location. This study demonstrates that high-resolution weather forecasts and corresponding hydrological forecasts can provide valuable information in advance for disaster warnings and leave time for people to act on the event. The results encourage further hydrological applications of high-resolution weather forecasts, such as Tianji weather forecasts, in the future.

Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020

Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June,May–June–July(MJJ),and June–July–August(JJA)2020 are presented,based on the Met Office GloSea5 system.The three-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)index,which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear regression.The June rainfall forecasts for the middle/lower Yangtze River basin are based on linear regression of precipitation.The forecasts verify well in terms of giving strong,consistent predictions of above-average rainfall at lead times of at least three months.However,the Yangtze region was subject to exceptionally heavy rainfall throughout the summer period,leading to observed values that lie outside the 95%prediction intervals of the three-month forecasts.The forecasts presented here are consistent with other studies of the 2020 EASM rainfall,whereby the enhanced mei-yu front in early summer is skillfully forecast,but the impact of midlatitude drivers enhancing the rainfall in later summer is not captured.This case study demonstrates both the utility of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for the Yangtze region and the potential limitations in anticipating complex extreme events driven by a combination of coincident factors.

Key Developments in Indian Irrigation Sector

The key developments in Indian Irrigation sector have been presented by briefly discussing the following topics:1.Present Indian Irrigation Challenges and Way Forward.2.Regulatory Interventions in Water Sector in India(Maharashtra’s Example).3.Roles and Activities of Maharashtra Water Resource Regulatory Authority(MWRRA).4.Major Achievements of MWRRA.5.Indian National Committee On Irrigation and Drainage(INCID).6.Irrigation,Command Area Development and Micro Irrigation in India.7.Flood Management and Its Measures.8.Capacity Building.

Comparing the performances of WRF QPF and PERSIANN-CCS QPEs in karst flood simulation and forecasting by coupling the Karst-Liuxihe model

Long-term rainfall data are crucial for flood simulations and forecasting in karst regions.However,in karst areas,there is often a lack of suitable precipitation data available to build distributed hydrological models to forecast karst floods.Quantitative precipitation forecasts(QPFs)and estimates(QPEs)could provide rational methods to acquire the available precipitation data for karst areas.Furthermore,coupling a physically based hydrological model with QPFs and QPEs could greatly enhance the performance and extend the lead time of flood forecasting in karst areas.This study served two main purposes.One purpose was to compare the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)QPFs with that of the Precipitation Estimations through Remotely Sensed Information based on the Artificial Neural Network-Cloud Classification System(PERSIANN-CCS)QPEs in rainfall forecasting in karst river basins.The other purpose was to test the feasibility and effective application of karst flood simulation and forecasting by coupling the WRF and PERSIANN models with the Karst-Liuxihe model.The rainfall forecasting results showed that the precipitation distributions of the 2 weather models were very similar to the observed rainfall results.However,the precipitation amounts forecasted by WRF QPF were larger than those measured by the rain gauges,while the quantities forecasted by the PERSIANN-CCS QPEs were smaller.A postprocessing algorithm was proposed in this paper to correct the rainfall estimates produced by the two weather models.The flood simulations achieved based on the postprocessed WRF QPF and PERSIANN-CCS QPEs coupled with the Karst-Liuxihe model were much improved over previous results.In particular,coupling the postprocessed WRF QPF with the Karst-Liuxihe model could greatly extend the lead time of flood forecasting,and a maximum lead time of 96 h is adequate for flood warnings and emergency responses,which is extremely important in flood simulations and forecasting.

Flood modeling of Sungai Pinang Watershed under the impact of urbanization

Urbanization has been a worldwide development trend,which regulates river courses,impervious surfaces and drainage systems.Urbanization causes hydrological effects,including increased runoff volumes,peak discharges and flow concentrations.This manuscript selects the Malaysian Sungai Pinang watershed as a case study to illustrate these land use,channel and flooding changes of Asian coastal cities.The Landsat satellite remote sensing images were first used to estimate the land use/land cover changes of the Sungai Pinang watershed by using SVM algorithm,and the results shows the urbanization was very rapid in the past decades,with the urbanization rate reached 46.41%in 2018 based on the build area rate.River channel characteristics also changed significantly,from natural river to concrete channel.Some flood resilience measures for coastal cities experiencing urbanization are also proposed for development and flood mitigation.Moreover,a flood forecasting model of the Sungai Pinang watershed is established herein.The simulation results of the Liuxihe model constructed in this study conforms to hydrological regularities and can provide a technical reference for flood control and disaster reduction.However,it is necessary to pay attention to the uncertainty of the forecast results.

A rain-on-snow mixed flood forecast model and its application

Based on summarizing the rule of rainstorm and snowmelt mixed flood,the structure of rain-on-snow runoff-generation is discussed;and critical temperature is used to determine the form of precipitation and snowmelt factor,taking into account rainfall volume of snowmelt.A rain-on-snow flood forecast model is developed by combining LL-Ⅰdistributed hydrology model.The Kalangguer River,an internal river in Xinjiang Autonomous Region,is taken for example.It is indicated that the model has a higher precision of forecasting;its determinacy coefficient is greater than 0.80.

Ensemble flood predictions for River Thames under climate change

In this study,a Bayesian model averaging(BMA)-based ensemble modeling system is proposed to project future flood occurrences for the River Thames using downscaled high-resolution climate projections from the latest general circulation models(GCMs)in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).The BMA-based ensemble modeling system integrates multiple hydrological models into the BMA framework to enhance the accuracy of hydrological forecasting,which has shown good performance in validation with the NSE higher 0.91,KGE approaching 0.80,and correlation coefficient higher than 0.96.Daily projections of precipitation and temperature under all four shared socioeconomic pathways were obtained from three GCM models and were further employed to project future potential evaporation.The BMA-based ensemble modeling system was then used to forecast annual maximum flood rates and associated 3-day maximum flood volumes in the future.Our results show that the three GCM models exhibit considerable differences in terms of future flood projections,but all indicate a general increase in flood occurrence and magnitude under future climate change scenarios.The future daily flood events under different climate scenarios are likely to become more severe,as indicated by higher mean,maximum,and 90th quantile values of the AMAX flood series.Meanwhile,the corresponding 3-day flood volumes show varying patterns in terms of mean and extreme flood volumes under different scenarios,but we would have more chances to experience severe 3-day flood volumes in future.The results of our study can provide important information for flood risk management and adaptation planning in the River Thames basin.