Structure and Composition of Macroinvertebrates during Flood Period of the Nokoue Lake, Benin

The Nokoue Lake is the largest lake of Benin Republic and it is also considered as one of the most productive lagoon ecosystems in West Africa. This productivity is decreasing and thus raises productivity issue for a better management and conservation. Macroinvertebrate can be useful for this purpose. A study was conducted to assess the spatial variation of macroinvertebrates during high flood period. A total of 3892 macroinvertebrates of fresh and brackish water were sampled during the survey. Structural analysis of the macroinvertebrate community revealed that it was made up of 16 orders, 48 families and 66 genera dominated by Insecta compared to Mollusca, Crustacea and the Annelida. Insects were dominated by Diptera (Chironomus sp. and Tanytarsus sp.), Coleoptera (Dystiscidae) and accounted for 57.1% of the sampled population. Mollusca, Crustacea, Annelida and Arachnida were the following most abundant and represented 23.9%, 10.7%, 8.1% and 0.2% of the total population, respectively. The Evenness index of Pielou was higher on the Station 8 (0.91 - 0.97), close to Oueme River. However, no significant difference (p > 0.05) was observed neither between station nor between month on the Shannon-Wiener index (2.06 - 4.31), Simpson index (0.04 - 0.40) and the taxa number (10 - 27). Macroinvertebrate assemblages and composition were primarily due to changes in water quality dependent on hydroclimatic changes and probably to anthropogenic actions. This suggests the need for real investigation of the macroinvertebrate biological capacity when formulating conservation strategies for the Nokoue Lake.

NUMERICAL STUDY OF INFLUENCE OF THE SSTA IN WESTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL ON RAINFALL IN THE FIRST FLOOD PERIOD IN SOUTH CHINA

A brief introduction of a global atmospheric circulation model CCM3, which is used to simulate the precipitation in China, the height and the flow fields of the atmosphere, is made and the reliability of simulation is analyzed. According to the negative correlation between rainfall in the first flood period in South China (FFSC) and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in a key region in western Pacific warm pool (West Region), two sensitive experiments are designed to investigate the effects of the latter on the former and the possible physical mechanism is discussed. It is found that in cold water (warm water) years, the rainfall in South China (SC) is far more (less) than normal, while the rainfall in the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River is relatively less (more). The best correlative area of precipitation is located in Guangdong Province. It matches the diagnostic result well. The effect of SSTA on precipitation of FFSC is realized through the abnormality of atmospheric circulation and tested by a P-σnine-layer regional climate model. Moreover, the simulated result of the P-σmodel is basically coincident with that of the CCM3.

Occurrence of Extreme Rainfall and Flood Risks in Yopougon, Abidjan, Southeast Côte d’Ivoire from 1971 to 2022

Yopougon, located in the western part of the Autonomous District of Abidjan, is the most heavily populated municipality in Côte d’Ivoire. However, this area is prone to floods and landslides during the rainy season. The study aims to assess recent flood risks in the municipality of Yopougon of the Autonomous District of Abidjan. To achieve this objective, the study analyzed two types of data: daily rainfall from 1971 to 2022 and parameters derived from a Numerical Field and Altitude Model (NFAM). The study examined six rainfall parameters using statistical analysis and combined land use maps obtained from the NFAM of Yopougon. The results indicated that, in 67% of cases, extreme rainfall occurred mainly between week 3 of May and week 1 of July. The peak of extreme rainfall was observed in week 2 of June with 15% of cases. These are critical periods of flood risks in the Autonomous District of Abidjan, especially in Yopougon. In addition, there was variability of rainfall parameters in the Autonomous District of Abidjan. This was characterized by a drop of annual and seasonal rainfall, and an increase of numbers of rainy days. Flood risks in Yopougon are, therefore, due to the regular occurrence of rainy events. Recent floods in Yopougon were caused by normal rains ranging from 55 millimeters (mm) to 153 mm with a return period of less than five years. Abnormal heavy rains of a case study on June 20-21, 2022 in Yopougon were detected by outputs global climate models. Areas of very high risk of flood covered 18% of Yopougon, while 31% were at high risk. Climate information from this study can assist authorities to take in advance adaptation and management measures.

Risk Assessment and Simulation on Storm Flood of the 100-Year Return Period in Hunhe River Basin

Based on the meteorological and geographic information data, with statistical method and the FloodArea model, the extreme daily rainfall of the 100-year return period in Hunhe River basin was established, through the simulation of rainstorm and flood disaster, characteristics of flood depth in warning spot Cangshi village in the upstream of the river were analysed, and possible effect on community economy was also evaluated. Results showed that, the precipitation of 100-year return period occurred, the flood depth has been below 1.0 meter in the most areas of Hunhe River basin, the depth was between 1.0 meter and 2.5 meters in the part areas of Hunhe River basin, and the flood depth has been exceed 2.5 meters in a small part of Hunhe River basin. After the beginning of precipitation, the flood was concentrated in the upper reaches of the river. With the accumulation of precipitation and the passage of time, the flood pools into midstream and downstream. Precipitation lasted for 24 hours, the warning spot was flooded in the beginning of precipitation. With the accumulation of precipitation, water level of the river increases gradually. The depth of warning spot has passed 1.0 meter at the 07 time of the whole process, and the maximum value of flood depth at warning spot was 1.083 meters that occurred at the 19 time. The flood depth of warning spot decreased gradually after the precipitation stopping, and the depth has been below 0.2 meters, the flood of upstream ended. Up to the end of the upstream flood process, in the whole river, about one million five hundred and sixty thousand people were affected by flooding, and thirty-eight billion and two hundred million RMB of gross domestic product were lost, in addition, dry land and paddy field were affected greatly, but woodland and grassland were less affected.

近50年滇池流域汛期降水时空演变特征分析

以滇池流域1970—2020年汛期(5—10月)降水量资料为依据,利用地理信息技术,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、小波分析等方法,分析近50年来滇池流域汛期降水年际变化的趋势性、周期性以及集中度、集中期、降水中心和旱涝发生频率等演变特征。结果表明:(1)近50年来,滇池流域汛期降水总体呈减少趋势,中部地区降水呈增加趋势,盘龙江上游的松华坝水库以上区域及南部地区降水呈减少趋势;(2)汛期降水年际变化存在31 a的主周期,中部主城区降水集中度高于南部地区;(3)汛期降水的中心整体呈现向东部、南部方向偏移的态势,且移动趋势显著;(4)滇池流域旱涝频发,尤其盘龙江中段昆明主城区为旱涝多发区。该成果对滇池流域水旱灾害防御及水资源管理具有参考意义。

The Analysis on the Temporal and Spatial Variation of Strong Precipitation Caused Flood and Agricultural Disaster Loss in Huaihe River Basin of Anhui Province during Meiyu Period of 2007

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal and spatial variation of strong precipitation caused flood and agricultural disaster loss in Huaihe River basin of Anhui Province during Meiyu period of 2007.[Method] On the basis of rainfalls of each station in Huaihe River basin of Anhui,rainfall data during Meiyu period of 2007 and flood disaster data in the same period,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of strong precipitation caused flood during Meiyu period of 2007 and its harm on agriculture were analyzed.The variation rule,distribution characteristics of strong precipitation during Meiyu period in Huaihe River basin of Anhui and its relationship with agricultural disaster loss were discussed.[Result] During Meiyu period of 2007 in Huaihe River basin of Anhui,the rainstorm was more,and the rainfall was large.The precipitation variation showed 'three-peak' trend.Rainfall in Huaihe River basin during Meiyu period of 2007 was greatly more than that homochronously in Yangtze River basin.The rain area over 400.0 mm during Meiyu period mainly located in Huaihe River basin,and the rain area over 600.0 mm mainly located from area along Huaihe River to central Huaibei.The rainfall during Meiyu period gradually decreased toward south and north by the north bank of Huaihe River as the symmetry axis.The rainfall in area along Huaihe River showed wavy distribution in east-west direction.The flood disaster loss index and disaster area of crops in Huaihe River basin of Anhui both increased as rainfall in Meiyu period.[Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for flood prevention,disaster reduction and agricultural flood-avoiding development in Huaihe River basin.

老油田“3+2”大幅度提高采收率技术内涵、机理及实践

传统方式的化学驱项目一般采取“2+3”的协同方式,也就是先通过水驱井网调整一次到位,再实施化学驱,受剩余油认识和预测精度的影响,会出现部分低产低效井,化学驱含水谷底平台期短,提高采收率幅度有限。为此,胜利油田通过基础攻关和探索实践,创新提出了化学驱与动态优化调整加合增效的“3+2”大幅度提高采收率技术,该技术是指在化学驱过程中,充分发挥和利用驱油体系扩大波及体积、提高驱油效率、调整动态非均质性的特点,主动培育、壮大动态剩余油富集区(“油墙”),适时井网调整、重构流场、均衡注采,高效动用、采出“油墙”,最大程度延长化学驱含水谷底平台期,实现三次采油和二次采油(“3+2”)适配优化、大幅度提高采收率的目的。通过大量物理模拟和数值模拟研究,明确了“井网-驱油剂-剩余油”适配优化提高采收率的机理。该技术在胜坨油田二区东三段5砂组进行了应用,通过优化“3+2”井网调整方式、驱油体系和注入参数等,预计区块含水谷底平台期从3 a延长至8 a,最终采收率为60.5%,比原方案采收率再提高7.5百分点。该技术是老油田大幅度提高采收率的关键技术,可以为中外同类型油藏延长化学驱见效高峰期提供指导和借鉴。

THE EARLY SUMMER FLOOD PERIODS OF SOUTHERN CHINA AND THE SUMMER MONSOON CIRCULATION OF EAST ASIA

Based on the thermodynamic characteristics of the summer monsoon and foe change of the lower layer wind fields, the relation between the early summer flood periods of southern China, Including the first flood period of South China and the plum rains period of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the activities of the summer monsoon is analysed. The establishment processes of the summer monsoon circulation of East Asia are investigated. It is shown that the beginning and ending of the flood periods are exactly in accordance with the arrival and departure of the fore boundary of the summer monsoon. The establishment process of the circulation from the very beginning of the arrival of the monsoon to the time of great prosperity of development are not the same for each year. They can be classified into four categories. Each category may have four or three stages. Besides, the structure of the summer monsoon regime of East Asia is not unitary. There exist four types of structure model of the monsoon regime of East Asia.

下沉式地铁车辆基地防洪排涝设计标准研究

[目的]下沉式地铁车辆基地是一种特殊空间利用形式的车辆基地,在防洪排涝方面存在较大风险,但国内现有相关规范和标准中尚无针对这方面的规定。因此,需对下沉式车辆基地防洪排涝设计能力进行深入研究,明确规范和标准中的相关内容,为此类项目建设提供设计依据。[方法]以宁波地铁5号线前殷停车场工程为例,分析了现有规范和标准中有关防洪和排水的设计要求,分析了下沉车辆基地的防洪涝设计方案,分别按50年和100年暴雨重现期对下沉基坑内不同区域防洪涝设计方案进行了对比分析。[结果及结论]下沉式车辆基地应采用“可靠的防、排内涝水措施”来满足防洪排涝的基本要求。在防洪涝方面,下沉式车辆基地防洪墙顶高程和出入口路面高程应高于百年洪水位+安全高,同时防洪墙与周边地面的高差应高于100年暴雨重现期下的所在地块内涝水位。在排涝方面,下沉基坑内的盖体屋面区域排水宜遵循“高水高排”的原则,按100年暴雨重现期设计屋面排水能力,通过重力流方式直排至基坑外;坑内敞开区域采用抽排方式,按100年暴雨重现期设计雨水泵站的总排水能力。

鄱阳湖水利枢纽对江湖洪期水动力过程的影响

鄱阳湖作为通江湖泊,其洪水大小由多因素共同决定,湖区洪灾频繁。鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程建设后将对洪期复杂水动力过程造成影响。为评估其影响,建立了包括鄱阳湖湖区和尾闾以及长江九江到八里江段在内的平面二维水动力模型,对1954年大洪水和1991年倒灌2种灾害型洪期过程进行情景模拟,分析了枢纽对长江和湖区可能造成的影响。结果表明:枢纽工程使湖口出流过程更加平缓,具有一定的削峰作用,对长江洪水位基本无影响;1954年大洪水过程,枢纽使湖区水位升高,代表水文站水位壅高最大值为0.021 m;1991年倒灌过程,枢纽使湖区水位降低,湖区水位变化的趋势与湖口流量变化趋势一致,相位稍滞后于流量过程。研究成果可为江湖水安全管理提供技术支撑。

塔里木河“四源”洪水演变规律及成因分析

基于1981—2020年塔里木河流域“四源”5个水文站的日径流数据及格网温度、降水和雪深等数据,采用最大值及POT采样法,分析洪水发生量级、频率和峰现时间等特征,同时采用相关性分析揭示不同洪水指标与影响因素之间的关系并识别关键影响因子。结果表明:(1)1981—2020年塔里木河“四源”各站点洪峰流量大小依次为:卡群>协和拉>同古孜洛克>沙里桂兰克>大山口,年及季节尺度洪峰流量普遍呈增加趋势,冬季洪峰发生时间均呈提前状态,其中沙里桂兰克年均提前最多为2.61 d,卡群站提前仅0.67 d。(2)研究时段内塔里木河流域共有2个洪水高发期,为1994—2002年和2006—2011年,流域内大量级洪水集中发生在1990年之后。(3)洪水发生前不同时间内最小温度、降水和雪深以增加趋势为主;而最大温度以减少趋势为主。春季洪水指标与最大3 d降水的相关性最高,而秋季洪水指标与最大7 d降水的相关性最高。相比于单日降水,多日降水与洪水指标的相关性更高。在雪深相关因子中,最大15 d雪深与各站点的春季洪水指标相关性最高。研究结果对区域水资源管理以及洪水灾害预测提供理论依据。

漳江口溶解态稀土元素的地球化学特征及影响因素

河口区域稀土元素(Rare earth elements, REEs)的地球化学行为对理解海洋中REEs的循环具有重要意义。本文通过现场调查对2018年9月(暴雨时期)、2019年12月(旱季)及2020年8月(湿季)溶解态REEs在漳江口的分布特征、REEs的主要影响因素及人为稀土元素钆(Gd)污染进行研究。结果表明:漳江口溶解态REEs在不同时期的分布及分异存在显著差异,溶解态REEs含量暴雨时期>旱季>湿季。暴雨时期溶解态REEs主要呈现轻/中稀土相对富集及Ce正异常现象,而旱季及湿季溶解态REEs主要呈现重稀土相对富集及Ce负异常现象,颗粒物-水作用是不同时期溶解态REEs含量及分异存在差异的主要原因。Gd在不同时期均呈现正异常,暴雨时期、旱季及湿季人为Gd占比分别为18%~29%、26%~69%及22%~60%,推测Gd污染可能受河口上游医院核磁共振造影剂使用的影响。以上研究表明暴雨导致的颗粒物释放对河口溶解态REEs具有显著的贡献,今后研究需要重视特殊事件(如暴雨)对河口溶解态REEs来源和收支的影响。漳江口上游的人口密度相比全国其他地区较低但存在较为严重的人为Gd污染,说明我国其他河口人为稀土污染及来源也应引起广泛的重视。

黄河未来气候情景下冰情特征演变分析

了解未来气候变化如何影响河流冰情特征对于研究冰凌洪水灾害、水电生产以及大坝管理运行等问题至关重要。基于黄河流域气象观测数据以及第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中8种全球气候模式(GCMs)的日均气温数据,评估了各GCMs在分位数增量映射(QDM)偏差校正前后对于黄河流域凌汛期日平均气温的模拟能力,预估了黄河流域未来凌汛期气温变化趋势。建立了最大冰厚以及封冻历时预测模型,并预估了黄河防凌重点区域黄河宁蒙段未来最大冰厚以及封冻历时的变化趋势。研究表明,在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5三种气候情景下预计2015—2100年期间黄河流域凌汛期平均气温升温速率分别为0.014、0.031和0.067℃a,黄河巴彦高勒断面21世纪内最大冰厚值将会分别下降8.5、19.5和39.5 cm。SSP2-4.5情景下,随着未来气温升高,2070年之后河道断面仅存一定宽度岸冰、河道中央存在较大清沟的现象将会频繁出现。未来黄河宁蒙段巴彦高勒、三湖河口以及头道拐断面的封冻历时将会呈现出不同程度的缩短趋势,其中巴彦高勒断面缩短趋势最为明显,三种气候情景下封冻历时分别以0.13、0.28和0.66 d a的速率缩短,三湖河口及头道拐断面封冻历时缩短速率较为接近,分别为0.07、0.15、0.36以及0.08、0.17、0.39 d a。

基于GIS的乡镇级洪涝水淹风险研究

洪涝灾害是最严重的自然灾害之一。乡镇排水系统差,相关数据与技术受限,脆弱性高,亟需技术支持。空间信息技术在洪涝灾害研究中主要采用被动遥感与GIS,但被动遥感数据获取困难,以灾后评估为主。提出了一种基于GIS的乡镇级洪涝水淹风险分析方法,服务于洪涝灾前评估;以湖北省随州市何店镇为研究区,主要应用开源数据资料,根据历史降雨、土壤和地形等特征分析不同重现期的降雨与积水过程,划分水淹风险等级,并提供避险建议。结果表明,研究成果基本符合实地调研情况,能够较准确地反映研究区水淹风险,可为乡镇级洪涝灾害科学决策提供有效的数据与技术支持。

基于Vine Copula的鄱阳湖流域近70年洪水空间分异规律

量化流域的洪水空间分异规律,对防洪减灾具有重要意义。采用鄱阳湖流域不同支流7个水文站近70 a日径流量资料,利用自动峰值超阈值模型、主衰退曲线分析法确定总洪量、洪峰流量和持续时间3个洪水特征,基于Vine Copula模型建立三维联合分布,计算联合、同现和2种条件重现期来对比研究各支流的洪水演化规律。结果显示:洪峰流量最优边缘分布为对数正态分布,总洪量以伽马分布为主;Gaussian Copula模型对洪峰流量和总洪量的相关性结构拟合效果良好,Gaussian Copula模型和Student t Copula模型适合建立总洪量条件下洪峰流量和持续时间的相关性结构;鄱阳湖流域西部会形成总洪量、洪峰流量和持续时间均较大的灾难性大洪水;流域东部容易在短期内积累较大的洪量,而不会形成持续性洪水;在洪量一定的情况下,流域南部洪水的洪峰流量最大。研究结果可为鄱阳湖流域改进洪水预警方法和制定洪水分级管理策略提供参考。

李家岩水库施工期洪水预报方案编制

针对李家岩水库施工期洪水预报方案编制的技术路线和相关成果进行总结。根据李家岩水情测报系统站网选取预报依据站,结合流域地形及水系进行分块和划分计算单元,选择三水源新安江水文模型进行模型参数率定,对铁索站10场次洪水的模拟结果进行统计分析,并初步确定预报方案精度等级达到乙等。开发实时洪水预报功能进行方案验证分析并提出相关应用改进建议。由于收集的历史洪水资料年限及数量均没有达到规范要求,且存在雨量站资料缺失、水文控制站流量精度难以校核、流域未建代表性蒸发站等问题,会在一定程度上影响模型参数率定及其预报精度。期望该预报方案在实际应用中通过进一步积累洪水资料,能进行定期修订并达到较好成效。

高洪水期运行水位对三峡水库泥沙淤积的影响

三峡水库泥沙问题直接关系到水库库容的长效保持。选取典型高洪水期,基于数值模型探究入库水沙量级、水沙异步及运行水位对三峡库区沙峰输移和淤积排沙的影响。结果表明:入库洪峰的增大抑制了涪陵沙峰比的衰减,并导致更多泥沙输运至坝前,使得坝前沙峰降幅受运行水位的抬升更为显著;变动回水区较常年回水区更易受到入库水沙异步影响,且随着来沙系数的增大,由低水位抬升时淤积占比更高;水库排沙比受入库水沙异步影响有限,且随着入库洪峰、沙峰的增大,排沙比增加的同时对运行水位抬升导致的衰减更为敏感。研究成果初步揭示了入库水沙异步及运行水位对库区沙峰运动与淤积的影响,可为三峡水库汛期优化沙峰排沙调度提供参考。

梯级水库运行期设计洪水及水位联合优化调控变革与启示

我国水资源时空分布不均,年际、年内变差大,洪涝和干旱并存,流域防洪与兴利需求并重。随着大规模水库群建成投运,流域下垫面条件及产汇流机制明显变异,水库及引调水工程运行等人类活动对设计洪水影响显著,梯级水库群运行管理中如何分析和应用设计洪水成为亟待解决的新问题,水库群联合优化调控、水资源高效利用的现实要求十分迫切,已列入中国科学技术协会2023年十大产业技术问题。经过多年探索实践,我国在梯级水库运行期设计洪水及水位联合优化调控方面已取得一定研究进展和成果,但仍存在对暴雨洪水季节性变化规律认识不足、梯级水库群系统中各水库运行相互影响考虑不足、现代水文气象实时预报信息运用不足等问题,亟须系统开展运行期设计洪水及水位联合优化调控体系研究,实现风险可控条件下水资源高效利用,保障防洪安全、供水安全、能源安全、生态安全,推进新阶段经济社会高质量发展。

水稻品质及产量对灌浆期旱涝急转的响应

为探究灌浆期旱涝急转对水稻品质及产量的影响,以湘早籼6号为研究对象,基于桶栽试验,采用四因素三水平正交试验设计,设置干旱水平(田间持水量的65%±5%,50%±5%,35%±5%)、干旱历时(5,7,9 d)、淹涝水平(淹没株高的50%,75%,100%)、淹涝历时(5,7,9 d),共计9个旱涝急转处理,以及对照处理(CK),探究灌浆期旱涝急转下各水稻品质指标及产量的响应规律,并在主成分分析基础上,通过理想点法技术(TOPSIS)对产量及品质的综合质量进行评价.结果表明:灌浆期旱涝急转会导致米粒偏短、偏窄,透明度与黄粒米率显著提高,垩白度与垩白粒率分别较CK提高了13.42%~69.16%和6.14%~48.72%;直链淀粉质量分数在灌浆期旱涝急转下较CK提高12.39%~34.46%,而胶稠度的降低幅度为25.26%~36.84%;除碱消值外,灌浆期旱涝急转下的水稻品质受干旱和淹涝的共同影响,淹涝水平是大部分品质指标的主要影响因素;与对照相比,灌浆期旱涝急转导致水稻减产67.32%~98.71%,大部分品质指标与产量呈负相关,长宽比与产量的负相关性最强(r为-0.78***),胶稠度与产量呈正相关(r为0.68***);灌浆期旱涝急转下水稻产量及品质的综合质量最优的处理为轻旱轻涝急转,综合质量最差的处理为重旱重涝急转.研究结果可为应对旱涝急转的水稻品质改良以及减灾策略的制定提供理论依据.

10—20d和30—60d低频振荡对华南前汛期持续性暴雨的影响差异及机制研究

利用中国气象局发布的《区域性重要过程检测和评价业务规定》中对省级区域性暴雨过程的统计数据,NOAA气候预测中心降水、向外长波辐射(OLR)资料以及ERA-Interim再分析资料,探讨了10—20 d和30—60 d两类低频振荡对华南前汛期持续性暴雨的相对重要性,并基于尺度分离的水汽方程和垂直速度方程诊断了相关物理机制。结果表明,10—20 d准双周振荡对暴雨强度的影响较为显著,而30—60 d季节内振荡与暴雨持续时间相关较高,表明持续性暴雨事件与低频降水的发生和演变关系密切。通过对低频降水的热力和动力过程诊断,发现10—20 d低频降水的水汽来源主要为水汽平流过程,而导致水汽平流正距平的主要原因是10—20 d风场和背景水汽场的相互作用;而对于30—60 d低频降水而言,水汽平流和水汽辐合均为扰动水汽的累积做正贡献,但其中水汽平流更加重要,其主要来源于平均风场和30—60 d水汽场的相互作用。有利于两类低频降水发生的动力条件,即垂直上升运动,其主要源于平均风场和扰动涡度场相互作用引发的垂直涡度平流梯度。以上结果显示,提高模式中低频振荡与季节平均状态尺度相互作用的刻画能力,是改进预报持续性暴雨的关键。