Dryness-wetness change and regional differentiation of flood-drought disasters in Guangdong during 1480-1940AD

Based on the historical records of the drought and flood disasters during 1480-1940AD, this paper reconstructs the sequences of wetness index （WI） and drought and flood disasters. We find a good identical relationship between the fluctuation of WI sequence and the δ^18O record of the GISP2 ice core in Greenland, which shows an apparent monsoonal disposal pattern of moisture and temperature. By applying the Morlet Wavelet Transform Method to deal with the data, several apparent periodicities, such as 7-8a, 11-15a, 20-23a and ca 50a, are revealed, among which some can be attributed to the solar forcing. Based on results of Cluster Analysis of dry-wet changes, we resume the regional differentiation pattern of flood-drought disasters all over Guangdong during different climatic intervals in the LIA and, find the western and northern parts of Guangdong have undergone drastic changes in drought-flood regional differentiation, but the eastern part is relatively stable, and the area of the Pearl River Delta shows stable condition of more flood disasters.

Review on Drought Disasters in the Five Provinces of Northern China in 1920

This paper analyzed the severe drought that took place in the five provinces of Northern China in 1920.Study suggested that the severe damage caused by the drought was resulted from many reasons,such as certain specific natural conditions,deterioration of ecological environment,malformations of the rural economy and turbulence of domestic politics.However,some new phenomena took shapes during this time disaster relief activity.

Risk assessment of coastal flooding disaster by storm surge based on Elevation-Area method and hydrodynamic models:Taking Bohai Bay as an example

The future inundation by storm surge on coastal areas are currently ill-defined.With increasing global sealevel due to climate change,the coastal flooding by storm surge is more and more frequently,especially in coastal lowland with land subsidence.Therefore,the risk assessment of such inundation for these areas is of great significance for the sustainable socio-economic development.In this paper,the authors use Elevation-Area method and Regional Ocean Model System(ROMS)model to assess the risk of the inundation of Bohai Bay by storm surge.The simulation results of Elevation-Area method show that either a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can inundate coastal areas exceeding 8000 km^(2);the numerical simulation results based on hydrodynamics,considering ground friction and duration of the storm surge high water,show that a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can only inundate an area of over 2000 km^(2),which is far less than 8000 km^(2);while,when taking into account the land subsidence and sea level rise,the very inundation range will rapidly increase by 2050 and 2100.The storm surge will greatly impact the coastal area within about 10-30 km of the Bohai Bay,in where almost all major coastal projects are located.The prompt response to flood disaster due to storm surge is urgently needed,for which five suggestions have been proposed based on the geological background of Bohai Bay.This study may offer insight into the development of the response and adaptive plans for flooding disasters caused by storm surge.

The influences of the tectonic subsidence and the siltation on the situation of preventing flood disasters in the Dongting Lake area

With the long-term data of the geodetic sea level measurements undertaken in the Dongting Basin and the recent sediment data of Dongting Lake, we analyze the tectonic subsidence rate of the Dongting Basin and the sedimentary rate of Dongting Lake. From the point of view of geomorphology and hydrogeology, we distinguish the two different spatial concepts between 'the basin of Dongting Lake' and 'the Dongting Basin'. Then, we discuss the influences of the tectonic subsidence and the siltation on the levees and the space of storing flood. The better quality of levees is required due to the tectonic subsidence and the siltation, and the difficulties of preventing flood disasters are increasing. The space of storing flood is not affected by the tectonic subsidence, but by the siltation. At present, the sedimentary rate of Dongting Lake is higher than the tectonic subsidence rate of the Dongting Basin. The tectonic subsidence capacity of the Dongting Basin counteracts a part of sedimentary capacity, and the shrinking tendency of Dongting Lake is restrained to a certain extent, but the tectonic subsidence is harmful to the situation of preventing flood disasters in the Dongting Lake area.

Community-Based Approach in the Prevention and Management of Flood Disasters in Babessi Sub-Division (Ndop Plain, North West Cameroon)

Flood is a recurrent natural disaster that has caused enormous human and material damage in many places and continues to hit local committees at an alarming rate. The need to setup permanent committees to prevent and manage flood disasters by local communities is therefore indispensable. In rural areas, the creation of such a structure is always a welcome relief to flood victims but it is often marred by numerous management problems. This study aimed to analyze the community-based approach in the prevention and management of flood disasters in Babessi Subdivision (North West Cameroon), to identify the causes of flood disasters and the preventive strategies used by this local community. A total number of 300 questionnaires as well as structured interviews were used to collect data in the field and the data were analyzed by simple descriptive statistics. The main results revealed that the main cause of flood disasters is heavy and consistent rainfall. Also, poor refuse disposal and drainage system management contribute to floods. The identification of areas likely to be affected by floods and preventing the riparian population from constructing houses along these areas especially beside the main rivers are the flood preventive measures adopted by the local flood management committee. The flood victims are reluctant to relocate to the settlement site earmarked by the Government, meanwhile, the local flood committee do not have the legal tools to forcefully relocate them. The population of Babessi needs to be sensitized on the impending dangers of flood hazard and be encouraged to participate in implementing the adopted strategies to prevent and manage subsequent flood disasters.

IMPACT OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON FLOOD AND WATER LOGGING DISASTERS IN LIXIAHE REGION

Lixiahe region is one of the susceptible area to flood and waterlogging disasters in China due to its low topographic relief and having difficulty in draining floodwater away.The condition will be more serious if sea level rises in the future.The estimated results by some scientists indicate that the sea level could rise probably 20-100 cm by 2050.However,what the effect will future sea level rise exerts on flood drainage and on flood or waterlogging disasters? A hydrological system model has been developed to study the problem in the lower reaches of the Sheyang River basin.Predicted results from the model show that,if sea level rises,drainage capacity of each drainage river will decrease obviously,and the water level will also rise.From the change of drainage capacity of drainage rivers the trends of flood and waterlogging disasters are analyzed in the paper if the severe flood that happened in the past meets with future sea level rise.Some countermeasures for disaster reduction and prevention against sea-level rise are put forward.

DROUGHT DISASTERS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE DURING PAST 30 YEARS IN AFRICA

A number of very serious drough disasters occurred in many regions of Aftica during past 30 years. It is commonly considered that they are among the most serious disasters after the World War II. The basic situation of the droughs and drough disasters are introduced briefly, and the main causes resulting 1i drought disasters are analysed in the paper. The lack of rainfall is one of the factors producing the drough disasters in Africa, but it is not the real one. From environmental viewpoints, the drough disasters in Africa resulted from unsuitable land use and management by man, and in essence they are the results of man-made environmental disturbance. Finally, the strategy for preventing drought disasters in Africa is suggested.

Yellow River Valley flood and drought disaster：spatial－temporal distribution prediction and early－warning

By means of analysing the historical data of flood-drought grade series in the past 2000 years(A.D.0-1900),especially in the last 5000 years (1470-1900) , this paper revealed the spatial-temporaldistribution features of severe flood and drought in Yellow River Valley. Statistical methods of varianceanalysis, probability transition and the principles of scale correspondence were employed tocomprehensively predicate 90's tendency of severe flood and drought in the Yellow River Valley. In addi-tion, this paper pointed out the possible breaching dikes, sectors and the flooding ranges by future's se-vere flood, meanwhile estimating the associated economic losses and impact to environment.

Risk Identification for the Ecological Environment of Flood Disasters Based on the Life Cycle

Aiming at the complexity of ecological environment risk of flood disaster, the life cycle of flood disaster is defined based on the relevant literatures, which is divided into incubation period, development period, outbreak period, recession period and extinction period. The characteristics of each period are analyzed. Further, the main risks for ecological environment faced at each stage under the life cycle of flood disaster are studied systematically to form the systematic ecological environment risk system for flood disaster.

Spatiotemporal Change of Agrometeorological Flood Disasters in Heilongjiang Province

Agrometeorological disasters severely impact agriculture in Heilongjiang Province.Flood is one of the main agrometeorological disasters in Heilongjiang Province.The temporal change in flood events in Heilongjiang Province from 1986to 2015 was studied using Mann-Kendall and Morlet wavelet methods,respectively.The results of Mann-Kendall analysis showed that the disaster rates of flood gradually stabilized from 1986 to 2015 with a confidence level of 99%.The Morlet wavelet variance analysis revealed that disaster rates of flood changed periodically at time scales of 3a,7a and 18a in Heilongjiang Province during1986-2015.The dominant period of the variation of flood disaster rate was about 18a over the past 30 years.The flood disaster rates were indicated in a positive phase during the period of 2016-2020 by the fitting curve of Morlet wavelet analysis.The annual average flood disaster indexes of single station,during 1986-2015 years were calculated,according to the precipitation data at 31 stations in Heilongjiang Province and the GIS software was used to analyze the spatial change in flood disasters in Heilongjiang Province from1986-2015.The results demonstrated that the southwest area of Heilongjiang Province was highly hazardous region of flood.The flood indices in the northern part of Songnen Plain and southwest of Heilongjiang Province presented the increment trends.

Natural Disasters of the Lower Reaches of Yellow River during the Longshan Period——The Natural Background of Dayu's Flood Control

It is very important to study the archaeological culture and origin of civilization in ancient China.The changes of the channels in the lower reaches of the Yellow River in the prehistoric period are part of the natural environmental background of the development of the ancient civilization in that area to be explored.This paper presents a series of legends,indications,scientific evidence,and macroscopic geographical background information of the evolution in the lower reaches of the Yellow River during the Longshan period.At first the river flowed from Northern Henan and Hebei to southwestern Shandong Province and Northern Anhui–Jiangsu provinces,and the mainstream of the Yellow River changed from the southeast to return to the north and flowed into the Bohai Sea in the late Longshan Period.During this period,floods were frequent.Various ethnic groups in the northern China plains suffered natural disasters and made great migrations which also contributed to the ethnic exchanges and integration.The people of the Central Plains made more dynamic adjustments in the relationship between mankind and the land by primitively escaping from the water and self–defensively controlling the rivers then to maintaining the local ecological environment by large–scale flood control measures,which promoted the settlement of Shandong,Henan,Jiangsu and Anhui provinces,the urban cultural development,and social evolution.Based on these events,the culture symbol of Dayu's Flood Control could be formed.

THE APPLICABILITY OF RESEARCH ON FLOOD－DROUGHT TENDENCY－AN ANALYSIS ON DISASTROUS FLOOD OF TAIHU LAKE BASININ JUNE－JULY，1991

In Taihu Lake basin during June-July in 1991, there happened a catastrophic flood, the precipitation reached that of 1954 and the water level was the highest in the history in Taihu Lake. This heaVy flood, happening in the relatively humid period and being well accord with flood-drought change tendency, was early precautioned.The occurrence of the flood illustrated that using records of historical climate to predict flood-dronght tendency is practically significant for hazard-reduction project.

Relationship between Regional Rainstorm Index and Flood Disaster Ratio of Crop

According to the daily precipitation data in Beijing area from 1985 to 2008,rainstorm weather index （10.4-38.8 mm） and climate index （daily precipitation ≥27.5 mm） in Beijing area were obtained by using the determination method of extreme climate event index recommended by IPCC. Based on rainstorm weather index,rainstorm climate index and national rainstorm standard,the number of rainstorm days and rainfall amount in past years were calculated,and the correlation of annual number of rainy days,rainstorm days,precipitation and rainstorm amount with the flood disaster ratio of crop was analyzed,and the results showed that annual number of rainy days and rainstorm days couldn＇t reflect flood disaster ratio of crop truly,while annual precipitation and rainstorm amount had obvious linear positive correlation with the flood disaster ratio of crop. In addition,the correlation degree between rainstorm amount calculated by regional climate index and flood disaster ratio of crop was the highest,so it was suggested that rainstorm amount calculated by regional rainstorm climate index could be used to predict and evaluate flood disaster.

Drought and Flood Analysis and Impact on Food Production in Fushun

Based on monthly precipitation data during 1961-2008 in 50 stations in Fushun,drought and flood indicators of three counties were calculated with Z index method. The geographical and seasonal distribution characteristics of Fushun were analyzed,and so was the impact of droughts and floods on food production. It shows that,since 1961,there are 7 poor harvest years in Fushun,with quadrennial caused by continuous seasonal floods or droughts,two years by year drought,one year by summer flood.

Measurement assessment of forest benefit in reducing flood disaster

Based on the analysis of forest inner mechanism, forest benefit in re ducing flood disaster is defined. Through the characteristic analysis of forest benefit in reducing flood disaster, it is suggested that it is impossible to ado pt the microanalysis method for studying the forest benefit in reducing flood, t he macro analysis is the only method to be adopted. With the special case of dis aster flooding of Changjiang River happened in 1998, the forest benefit in reduc ing flood disaster was scientifically assessed. The estimated results of forest benefit in reducing flood shows that forest vegetation establishment is the radi cal way to control flood, but it only equals to 5 percent of the total benefits of water conservancy facilities.

Research on Model of Flood Disaster's Monitoring and Its Application Based on DEM

In order to assess the flood damage rapidly and accurately,this paper proposed a practical method of flood disaster monitoring based on meso-scale automatic weather stations rainfall data and 1:5 million high-precision DEM (digital elevation model) data.It can predict roughly areas by the automatic weather station rainfall analysis and processing when the floods happen.Using partitions 'horizontal' approximation methods,the model of DEM flooding disaster's monitoring has been constructed based on 1:5 million high-precision DEM.And the technical methods applied to the analysis of experimental area.The result of flood disaster's monitoring is carried on comparison and the analysis through the verification by CBERS-02B.It finds that the area of floods is very consistent by the model of DEM and CBERS-02B flooding disaster's monitoring.So the method of flood disaster's motoring based on DEM can be real-time,dynamic,and can monitor the flood zone accurately and effectively.It also can provide the decision making department with present and assisting scheme of policy making.

Characteristics and Variations of the East Asian Monsoon System and Its Impacts on Climate Disasters in China

Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Previous studies have improved our understanding of the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures and the annual cycle of the EAM system and the water vapor transports in the EAM region. Many studies have shown that the EAM system is a relatively independent subsystem of the Asian- Australian monsoon system, and that there exists an obvious quasi-biennial oscillation with a meridional tripole pattern distribution in the interannual variations of the EAM system. Further analyses of the basic physical processes, both internal and external, that influence the variability of the EAM system indicate that the EAM system may be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, referred to the EAM climate system in this paper. Further, the paper discusses how the interaction and relationships among various components of this system can be described through the East Asia Pacific （EAP） teleconnection pattern and the teleconnection pattern of meridional upper-tropospheric wind anomalies along the westerly jet over East Asia. Such reasoning suggests that the occurrence of severe floods in the Yangtze and Hualhe River valleys and prolonged droughts in North China are linked, respectively~ to the background interannual and interdecadal variability of the EAM climate system. Besides, outstanding scientific issues related to the EAM system and its impact on climate disasters in China are also discussed.

The Analysis on the Features of the Atmospheric Circulation in Preceding Winters for the Summer Drought and Flooding in the Yangtze And Huaihe River Valley

Based on the annual variation of the rainfall departure percentage in summer in the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River valley, 7 cases for the abnormal drought and flooding summers (the drought years: 1981. 1984, 1985; the flooding yearst 1980, 1982, 1983, 1987) are selected. First we analyse the general circulation characteristics of the summer drought and flooding, and then the evolution processes of the general circulation patterns from preceding winters to summers are studied. It is found that during the two kinds of preceding winters for the drought and flooding summer, not only the general circulation patterns in the high-mid latitudes, the local Hadley cells in East Asia but also the activities of the cold surge in the lower latitude are different obviously. Spring, especially April, is the turning period of the general circulation in preceding winter for the drought or nooding summer evolution towards opposite direction. Hereafter, the drought or flooding circulation pattern is established and developed.

The Relation between Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation and Summer Severe Flood and Drought in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin

The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) is studied during the severe flood and drought years of the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the precipitation data in China. The results show that the upper-level (200 hPa) ISO pattern for severe flood (drought) is characterized by an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the southern Tibetan Plateau and a cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation over the northern Tibetan Plateau. The lower-level (850 hPa) ISO pattern is characterized by an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the area south of the Changjiang River, the South China Sea, and the Western Pacific, and a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation from the area north of the Changjiang River to Japan. These low-level ISO circulation patterns are the first modes of the ISO wind field according to the vector EOF expansion with stronger amplitude of the EOF1 time coefficient in severe flood years than in severe drought years. The analyses also reveal that at 500 hPa and 200 hPa, the atmospheric ISO activity over the Changjiang-Huaihe River basin, North China, and the middle-high latitudes north of China is stronger for severe flood than for severe drought. The ISO meridional wind over the middle-high latitude regions can propagate southwards and meet with the northward propagating ISO meridional wind from lower latitude regions over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin during severe flood years, but not during severe drought years.

Future Changes of Drought and Flood Events in China under a Global Warming Scenario

This study investigates the impact of global warming on drought/flood patterns in China at the end of the 21st century based on the simulations of 22 global climate models and a regional climate model(RegCM3) under the SRES(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario.The standardized precipitation index(SPI),which has well performance in monitoring the drought/flood characteristics(in terms of their intensity,duration,and spatial extent) in China,is used in this study.The projected results of 22 coupled models and the RegCM3 simulation are consistent.These models project a decrease in the frequency of droughts in most parts of northern China and a slight increase in the frequency in some parts of southern China.Considering China as a whole,the spatial extents of droughts are projected to be significantly reduced.In contrast,future flood events over most parts of China are projected to occur more frequently with stronger intensity and longer duration than those prevalent currently.Additionally,the spatial extents of flood events are projected to significantly increase.