Hydraulic model with roughness coefficient updating method based on Kalman filter for channel flood forecast

A real-time channel flood forecast model was developed to simulate channel flow in plain rivers based on the dynamic wave theory. Taking into consideration channel shape differences along the channel, a roughness updating technique was developed using the Kalman filter method to update Manning＇s roughness coefficient at each time step of the calculation processes. Channel shapes were simplified as rectangles, triangles, and parabolas, and the relationships between hydraulic radius and water depth were developed for plain rivers. Based on the relationship between the Froude number and the inertia terms of the momentum equation in the Saint-Venant equations, the relationship between Manning＇s roughness coefficient and water depth was obtained. Using the channel of the Huaihe River from Wangjiaba to Lutaizi stations as a case, to test the performance and rationality of the present flood routing model, the original hydraulic model was compared with the developed model. Results show that the stage hydrographs calculated by the developed flood routing model with the updated Manning＇s roughness coefficient have a good agreement with the observed stage hydrographs. This model performs better than the original hydraulic model.

Using modified Soil Conservation Service curve number method to simulate the role of forest in flood control in the upper reach of the Tingjiang River in China

To improve flood control efficiency and increase urban resilience to flooding,the impacts of forest type change on flood control in the upper reach of the Tingjiang River(URTR) were evaluated by a modified model based on the Soil Conservation Service curve number(SCS-CN) method. Parameters of the model were selected and determined according to the comprehensive analysis of model evaluation indexes. The first simulation of forest reconstruction scenario,namely a coniferous forest covering 59.35km^2 is replaced by a broad-leaved forest showed no significant impact on the flood reduction in the URTR. The second simulation was added with 61.75km^2 bamboo forest replaced by broad-leaved forest,the reduction of flood peak discharge and flood volume could be improved significantly. Specifically,flood peak discharge of 10-year return period event was reduced to 7-year event,and the reduction rate of small flood was 21%-28%. Moreover,the flood volume was reduced by 9%-14% and 18%-35% for moderate floods and small floods,respectively. The resultssuggest that the bamboo forest reconstruction is an effective control solution for small to moderate flood in the URTR,the effect of forest conversion on flood volume is increasingly reduced as the rainfall amount increases to more extreme magnitude. Using a hydrological model with scenarios analysis is an effective simulation approach in investigating the relationship between forest type change and flood control. This method would provide reliable support for flood control and disaster mitigation in mountainous cities.

Local and regional flood frequency analysis based on hierarchical Bayesian model in Dongting Lake Basin,China

This study developed a hierarchical Bayesian(HB)model for local and regional flood frequency analysis in the Dongting Lake Basin,in China.The annual maximum daily flows from 15 streamflow-gauged sites in the study area were analyzed with the HB model.The generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution was selected as the extreme flood distribution,and the GEV distribution location and scale parameters were spatially modeled through a regression approach with the drainage area as a covariate.The Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method with Gibbs sampling was employed to calculate the posterior distribution in the HB model.The results showed that the proposed HB model provided satisfactory Bayesian credible intervals for flood quantiles,while the traditional delta method could not provide reliable uncertainty estimations for large flood quantiles,due to the fact that the lower confidence bounds tended to decrease as the return periods increased.Furthermore,the HB model for regional analysis allowed for a reduction in the value of some restrictive assumptions in the traditional index flood method,such as the homogeneity region assumption and the scale invariance assumption.The HB model can also provide an uncertainty band of flood quantile prediction at a poorly gauged or ungauged site,but the index flood method with L-moments does not demonstrate this uncertainty directly.Therefore,the HB model is an effective method of implementing the flexible local and regional frequency analysis scheme,and of quantifying the associated predictive uncertainty.

Numerical Analysis of Emergency River Restoration Scheme for Qingping Mega Debris Flow

The mega debris flow occurred on August 13 th 2010 in Qingping town,China(hereafter called '8.13' Debris Flow) have done great damage to the local habitants as well as to the re-construction projects in the quake-hit areas,and the channel-fill deposit problem caused by the debris flow was the most destructive.Moreover,it is of high possibility that an even severe deposit problem would reappear and result in worse consequences.In order to maximize risk reduction of this problem,relevant departments of the government established a series of emergency river restoration schemes,for which the numerical analysis is an important procedure to evaluate and determine the optimized one.This study presents a numerical analysis by applying a twodimensional debris flow model combined with a relevant water-sediment model to simulate the deposit during the progress of the debris flow,and to calculate and analyze the river flow field under both the present condition and different restoration conditions.The results show that the debris flow model,which takes the confluence of the Wenjia Gully to the main river into account,could simulate the deposit process quite well.In the reproduced debris flow from the simulation of the '8.13' Debris Flow,the original river flow path has switched to a relatively lower place just along the right bank with a high speed of near 7m.s-1 after being blocked by the deposit,which is highly hazardous.To prevent this hazard,a recommended scheme is derived through inter-comparison of different restoration conditions.It shows that the recommended scheme is able to reduce the water level and as well to regulate the flow path.Based on the given conditions of the mainstream and the tributary confluence for the simulated '8.13' Debris Flow,when encountering a debris flow with deposit volume less than 0.5 million m3,the river channel can endure a 20-year return flood;however,when the deposit volume increases to 2 million m3,the flood capacity of the river will be greatly impacted and the scheme becomes invalid.The recommended scheme supported by the present study has been applied to the emergency river restoration after this mega-debris flow.

MPM simulations of dam-break floods

Owing to its ability of modelling large deformations and the ease of dealing with moving boundary conditions,the material point method is gaining popularity in geotechnical engineering applications.In this paper,this promising Lagrangian method is applied to hydrodynamic problems to further explore its potential.The collapse of water columns with different initial aspect ratios is simulated by the material point method.In order to test the accuracy and stability of the material point method,simulations are first validated using experimental data and results of mature numerical models.Then,the model is used to ascertain the critical aspect ratio for the widely-used shallow water equations to give satisfactory approximation.From the comparisons between the simulations based on the material point method and the shallow water equations,the critical aspect ratio for the suitable use of the shallow water equations is found to be 1.