Time-dependent model for two-phase flow in ultra-high water-cut reservoirs:Time-varying permeability and relative permeability

For the ultra-high water-cut reservoirs,after long-term water injection exploitation,the physical properties of the reservoir change and the heterogeneity of the reservoir becomes increasingly severe,which further aggravates the spatial difference of the flow field.In this study,the displacement experiments were employed to investigate the variations in core permeability,porosity,and relative permeability after a large amount of water injection.A relative permeability endpoint model was proposed by utilizing the alternating conditional expectation(ACE)transformation to describe the variation in relative permeability based on the experimental data.Based on the time dependent models for permeability and relative permeability,the traditional oil-water two-phase model was improved and discretized using the mimetic finite difference method(MFD).The two cases were launched to confirm the validation of the proposed model.The impact of time-varying physical features on reservoir production performance was studied in a real water flooding reservoir.The experimental results indicate that the overall relative permeability curve shifts to the right as water injection increases.This shift corresponds to a transition towards a more hydrophilic wettability and a decrease in residual oil saturation.The endpoint model demonstrates excellent accuracy and can be applied to time-varying simulations of reservoir physics.The impact of variations in permeability and relative permeability on the reservoir production performance yields two distinct outcomes.The time-varying permeability of the reservoir results in intensified water channeling and poor development effects.On the other hand,the time-varying relative permeability enhances the oil phase seepage capacity,facilitating oil displacement.The comprehensive time-varying behavior is the result of the combined influence of these two parameters,which closely resemble the actual conditions observed in oil field exploitation.The time-varying simulation technique of reservoir physical properties proposed in this paper can continuously and stably characterize the dynamic changes of reservoir physical properties during water drive development.This approach ensures the reliability of the simulation results regarding residual oil distribution.

Effects of physical parameter range on dimensionless variable sensitivity in water flooding reservoirs

The similarity criterion for water flooding reservoir flows is concerned with in the present paper. When finding out all the dimensionless variables governing this kind of flow, their physical meanings are subsequently elucidated. Then, a numerical approach of sensitivity analysis is adopted to quantify their corresponding dominance degree among the similarity parameters. In this way, we may finally identify major scaling law in different parameter range and demonstrate the respective effects of viscosity, permeability and injection rate.

A quantitative model for danger degree evaluation of staged operation of earth dam reservoir in flood season and its application

Based on the natural disaster risk evaluation mode, a quantitative danger degree evaluation model was developed to evaluate the danger degree of earth dam reservoir staged operation in the flood season. A formula for the overtopping risk rate of the earth dam reservoir staged operation was established, with consideration of the joint effect of flood and wind waves in the flood sub-seasons with the Monte Carlo method, and the integrated overtopping risk rate for the whole flood season was obtained via the total probability approach. A composite normalized function was used to transform the dam overtopping risk rate into the danger degree, on a scale of 0-1. Danger degree gradating criteria were divided by four significant characteristic values of the dam overtopping rate, and corresponding guidelines for danger evaluation are explained in detail in this paper. Examples indicated that the dam overtopping danger degree of the Chengbihe Reservoir in China was 0.33-0.57, within the range of moderate danger level, and the flood-limiting water level （FLWL） can be adjusted to 185.00 m for the early and main flood seasons, and 185.00-187.50 m for the late flood season. The proposed quantitative model offers a theoretical basis for determination of the value of the danger degree of an earth dam reservoir under normal operation as well as the optimal scheduling scheme for the reservoir in each stage of the flood season.

Flood risk control of dams and dykes in middle reach of Huaihe River

Three stochastic mathematical models for calculation of the reservoir flood regulation process, river course flood release, and flood risk rate under flood control were established based on the theory of stochastic differential equations and features of flood control systems in the middle reach of the Huaihe River from Xixian to the Bengbu floodgate, comprehensively considering uncertain factors of hydrology, hydraulics, and engineering control. They were used to calculate the flood risk rate with flood regulation of five key reservoirs, including the Meishan, Xianghongdian, Nianyushan, Mozitan, and Foziling reservoirs in the middle reach of the Huaihe River under different flood frequencies, the flood risk rate with river course flood release under design and check floods for the trunk of the Huaihe River in conjunction with relevant flood storage areas, and the flood risk rate with operation of the Linhuaigang Project under design and check floods. The calculated results show that （l） the five reservoirs can withstand design floods, but the Xianghongdian and Foziling reservoirs will suffer overtopping accidents under check floods; （2） considering the service of flood storage areas under the design flood conditions of the Huaihe River, the mean flood risk rate with flood regulation of dykes and dams from Xixian to the Bengbu floodgate is about 0.2, and the trunk of the Huaihe River can generally withstand design floods; and （3） under a check flood with the flood return period of 1 000 years, the risk rate of overtopping accidents of the Linhuaigang Project is not larger than 0.15, indicating that it has a high flood regulation capacity. Through regulation and application of the flood control system of the Linhuigang Project, the Huaihe River Basin can withstand large floods, and the safety of the protected area can be ensured.

A production prediction method of single well in water flooding oilfield based on integrated temporal convolutional network model

Since the oil production of single well in water flooding reservoir varies greatly and is hard to predict, an oil production prediction method of single well based on temporal convolutional network(TCN) is proposed and verified. This method is started from data processing, the correspondence between water injectors and oil producers is determined according to the influence radius of the water injectors, the influence degree of a water injector on an oil producer in the month concerned is added as a model feature, and a Random Forest(RF) model is built to fill the dynamic data of water flooding. The single well history is divided into 4 stages according to its water cut, that is, low water cut, middle water cut, high water cut and extra-high water cut stages. In each stage, a TCN based prediction model is established, hyperparameters of the model are optimized by the Sparrow Search Algorithm(SSA). Finally, the models of the 4 stages are integrated into one whole-life model of the well for production prediction. The application of this method in Daqing Oilfield, NE China shows that:(1) Compared with conventional data processing methods, the data obtained by this processing method are more close to the actual production, and the data set obtained is more authentic and complete.(2) The TCN model has higher prediction accuracy than other 11 models such as Long Short Term Memory(LSTM).(3) Compared with the conventional full-life-cycle models, the model of integrated stages can significantly reduce the error of production prediction.

Pore-scale investigation of residual oil displacement in surfactant–polymer flooding using nuclear magnetic resonance experiments

Research on the Gangxi III area in the Dagang Oilfield shows that there was still a significant amount of oil remaining in oil reservoirs after many years of polymer flooding.This is a potential target for enhanced oil recovery（EOR）.Surfactant–polymer（SP） flooding is an effective chemical EOR method for mobilizing residual oil and improving displacement efficiency macroscopically,but the microscopic oil displacement efficiency in pores of different sizes is unclear.Nuclear magnetic resonance（NMR） is an efficient method for quantifying oil saturation in the rock matrix and analyzing pore structures.In this paper,the threshold values of different pore sizes were established from the relationship between mercury injection curves and NMR T2 spectrums.The distribution and migration of residual oil in different flooding processes was evaluated by quantitatively analyzing the change of the relaxation time.The oil displaced from pores of different sizes after the water flood,polymer flood,and the SP flood was calculated,respectively.Experimental results indicate that（1） the residual oil in medium pores contributed the most to the incremental oil recovery for the SP flood,ranging from 40 % to 49 %,and small pores usually contributed ／30 %;（2） the residual oil after the SP flood was mainly distributed in small and medium pores;the residual oil in medium pores accounted for 47.3 %–54.7 %,while that trapped in small pores was 25.7 %–42.5 %.The residual oil in small and medium pores was the main target for EOR after the SP flood in oilfields.

A novel type curve for estimating oil recovery factor of gas flooding

A novel type curve is presented for oil recovery factor prediction suitable for gas flooding by innovatively introducing the equivalent water-gas cut to replace the water cut,comprehensively considering the impact of three-phase flow(oil,gas,water),and deriving the theoretical equations of gas flooding type curve based on Tong’s type curve.The equivalent water-gas cut is the ratio of the cumulative underground volume of gas and water production to the total underground volume of produced fluids.Field production data and the numerical simulation results are used to demonstrate the feasibility of the new type curve and verify the accuracy of the prediction results with field cases.The new type curve is suitable for oil recovery factor prediction of both water flooding and gas flooding.When a reservoir has no gas injected or produced,the gas phase can be ignored and only the oil and water phases need to be considered,in this case,this gas flooding type curve returns to the Tong’s type curve,which can evaluate the oil recovery factor of water flooding.For reservoirs with equivalent water-gas cuts of 60%-80%,the regression method of the new type curve works well in predicting the oil recovery factor.For reservoirs with equivalent water-gas cuts higher than 80%,both the regression and assignment methods of the new type curve can accurately predict the oil recovery factor of gas flooding.

Numerical simulation of the impact of polymer rheology on polymer injectivity using a multilevel local grid refinement method

Polymer injectivity is an important factor for evaluating the project economics of chemical flood,which is highly related to the polymer viscosity.Because the flow rate varies rapidly near injectors and significantly changes the polymer viscosity due to the non-Newtonian rheological behavior,the polymer viscosity near the wellbore is difficult to estimate accurately with the practical gridblock size in reservoir simulation.To reduce the impact of polymer rheology upon chemical EOR simulations,we used an efficient multilevel local grid refinement（LGR）method that provides a higher resolution of the flows in the near-wellbore region.An efficient numerical scheme was proposed to accurately solve the pressure equation and concentration equations on the multilevel grid for both homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoir cases.The block list and connections of the multilevel grid are generated via an efficient and extensible algorithm.Field case simulation results indicate that the proposed LGR is consistent with the analytical injectivity model and achieves the closest results to the full grid refinement,which considerably improves the accuracy of solutions compared with the original grid.In addition,the method was validated by comparing it with the LGR module of CMG_STARS.Besides polymer injectivity calculations,the LGR method is applicable for other problems in need of near-wellbore treatment,such as fractures near wells.

Assessing Flood Risk Using Reservoir Flood Control Rules

The application of conventional flood operation regulation is restricted due to insufficient description of flood control rules for the Pubugou Reservoir in southern China. Based on the requirements of different flood control objects, this paper proposes to optimize flood control rules with punishment mechanism by defining different parameters of flood control rules in response to flood inflow forecast and reservoir water level. A genetic algorithm is adopted for solving parameter optimization problem. The failure risk and overflow volume of the downstream insufficient flood control capacity are assessed through the reservoir operation policies. The results show that an optimised regulation can provide better performance than the current flood control rules.

Assessment of climate change impact on high flows in a watershed characterized by flood regulating reservoirs

A climate-induced extreme flow event such as flooding is one of the most devastating natural hazards,which can significantly damage human lives and properties.This study examined the effects of climate change on the high flow conditions in the Great Miami River Watershed in Ohio under two emission scenarios(RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5).Streamflow for the 21st century was simulated by utilizing a watershed model-SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)and 10 different climate outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5(CMIP5).The future streamflow was divided into three equal periods:2016-2043(early century),2044-2071(mid-century),and 2072-2099(late century)and independently analyzed to compare high flows of respective intervals with baseline periods(1988-2015).The analysis predicted that 7-day,10-year high-flow(7Q10)would increase by 38%under RCP 4.5 and 44%under RCP 8.5.Similarly,the annual peak flows for study periods were predicted to increase by 26%under RCP 4.5 and 38%under RCP 8.5 from the base period.However,the analysis demonstrated an erratic response for monthly peaks indicating that the peak flow would increase in summer months-May and July to October.Meanwhile,the result did not show any significant increase during the winter season,especially from November to April.The analysis of the four major dams located in the watershed showed that the dam’s peak discharges increase in January,May,and September.Even though increasing peaks were projected in September for the 21st century,the monthly peaks from the watershed outlet were found to be lowest in September as compared to other months.The frequency of future flooding compared to the historical record was found to be increasing in the mid-century under RCP 4.5 and the late century under RCP 8.5.As the future flood is projected to increase,this study finds the reasonable impact of climate change on flood regulating reservoirs/dams in monthly flows.However,daily high flows(90th percentile flow)would be increasing significantly(44%to 250%)under RCP 8.5.