Monitoring models for base flow effect and daily variation of dam seepage elements considering time lag effect

Affected by external environmental factors and evolution of dam performance, dam seepage behavior shows nonlinear time-varying characteristics. In this study, to predict and evaluate the long-term development trend and short-term fluctuation of the dam seepage behavior, two monitoring models were developed, one for the base flow effect and one for daily variation of dam seepage elements. In the first model, to avoid the influence of the time lag effect on the evaluation of seepage variation with the time effect component of seepage elements, the base values of the seepage element and the reservoir water level were extracted using the wavelet multi-resolution analysis method, and the time effect component was separated by the established base flow effect monitoring model. For the development of the daily variation monitoring model for dam seepage elements, all the previous factors, of which the measured time series prior to the dam seepage element monitoring time may have certain influence on the monitored results, were considered. Those factors that were positively correlated with the analyzed seepage element were initially considered to be the support vector machine(SVM) model input factors, and then the SVM kernel function-based sensitivity analysis was performed to optimize the input factor set and establish the optimized daily variation SVM model. The efficiency and rationality of the two models were verified by case studies of the water level of two piezometric tubes buried under the slope of a concrete gravity dam.Sensitivity analysis of the optimized SVM model shows that the influences of the daily variation of the upstream reservoir water level and rainfall on the daily variation of piezometric tube water level are processes subject to normal distribution.

Trans-Thoracic Echocardiographic Aortic Blood Flow Peak Velocity Variation, Distance Minute, Aortic Velocity Time Integral and Postoperative Outcome in Pediatric Surgical Patients—An Observational Pilot Study Protocol

Background: A Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) has been elaborated where goal directed fluid and hemodynamic therapy (GDFHT) will be realized with trans-thoracic echocardiographic aortic blood flow peak velocity variation (ΔVpeak) and distance minute (DM) to guide fluid therapy and hemodynamics in high risk pediatric surgical patients. This RCT will clarify the impact of GDFHT with ΔVpeak and DM on postoperative outcome in terms of morbidity, length of stay in the intensive care unit (LOSICU), length of mechanical ventilation (LMV) and length of hospital stay (LOS) in children. To determine values of ΔVpeak, DM and VTI predictive of these postoperative outcomes, an observational pilot study will be realized. This pilot study is described here. The primary objective of this study is to determine values of ΔVpeak, DM and ITV predictive of postoperative outcome in children in terms of morbidity. The secondary objectives are to determine values of ΔVpeak, DM and ITV predictive of LOSICU, LMV, LOS, intraoperative, postoperative fluid administration and vasoactive-inotropic therapy. Methods: 500 - 1000 children aged less than 18 years will be included prospectively. Statistic analysis will be realized with XLSTAT 2019.4.2 software or plus. Results and Conclusions: This trial protocol will determine values of ΔVpeak, DM and ITV with echocardiography predictive of postoperative outcome in children.

INVISCID INCOMPRESSIBLE AND COMPRESSIBLE FLOW EQUATIONS UNDER SPACE-TIME TRANSFORMATION

The equations governing incompressible and compressible inviscid flows and written in the physical frame ( t,x,y,z ) are known to be linearly well posed and exhibit elliptic or hyperbolic nature. The linear well posedness is considered here for these equations under a space time transformation ( t,x,y,z)→(τ,ξ,η,ζ ), where the pseudo time τ and the new space coordinate ( ξ,η,ζ ) all depend on ( t,x,y,z ). Such a transformation could be useful for uniformly treating problems in which the flow is fast unsteady somewhere and slow unsteady or steady elsewhere. It is found that the transformation may alter the ellipticity, the hyperbolicty, and even the well posedness of the original equations. In one dimension, the transformed incompressible flow equations become weakly hyperbolic and the compressible ones could degenerate to elliptical equations. In high dimensions there are conditions such that the transformed equations become ill posed.

LES prediction of space-time correlations in turbulent shear flows

We compare the space-time correlations calculated from direct numerical simulation （DNS） and large-eddy simulation （LES） of turbulent channel flows. It is found from the comparisons that the LES with an eddy-viscosity subgrid scale （SGS） model over-predicts the space-time corre- lations than the DNS. The overpredictions are further quantified by the integral scales of directional correlations and convection velocities. A physical argument for the overpre- diction is provided that the eddy-viscosity SGS model alone does not includes the backscatter effects although it correctly represents the energy dissipations of SGS motions. This argument is confirmed by the recently developed elliptic model for space-time correlations in turbulent shear flows. It suggests that enstrophy is crucial to the LES prediction of spacetime correlations. The random forcing models and stochastic SGS models are proposed to overcome the overpredictions on space-time correlations.

EVOLUTION FILTRATION PROBLEMS WITH SEAWATER INTRUSION: TWO-PHASE FLOW DUAL MIXED VARIATIONAL ANALYSIS

Tow-phase flow mixed variational formulations of evolution filtration problems with seawater intrusion are analyzed. A dual mixed fractional flow velocity-pressure model is considered with an air-fresh water and a fresh water-seawater characterization. For analysis and computational purposes, spatial decompositions based on nonoverlapping multidomains, above and below the sea level, are variationally introduced with internal boundary fluxes dualized as weak transmission constraints. Further, parallel augmented and exactly penalized duality algorithms, and proximation semi-implicit time marching schemes, are established and analyzed.

TIME-SPACE CONCEPT FOR PRECISION MEASUREMENT

The transformation between time and space is discussed. To improve real-time response speed of intelligent measuring system, the concept of exchanging program execution time with more circuitry is presented working in cycle mode. Displacement measuring by magnification is achieved with period measurement by magnification. To change the condition that traditional precision measurement depends on machining precision greatly, the concept of measuring space with time and theory of time-space coordinate transformation are proposed. Guided by the idea of measuring space with time, differential frequency measurement system and time grating displacement sensor are developed based on the proposed novel methods. And high-precision measurement is achieved without high-precision manufacture, which embeds the remarkable characteristics of low cost but high precision to the devices. Experiment and test results conform the validity of the proposed time-space concept.

Winter sea ice albedo variations in the Bohai Sea of China

Sea ice conditions in the Bohai Sea of China are sensitive to large-scale climatic variations. On the basis of CLARA-A1-SAL data, the albedo variations are examined in space and time in the winter（December, January and February） from 1992 to 2008 in the Bohai Sea sea ice region. Time series data of the sea ice concentration（SIC）, the sea ice extent（SIE） and the sea surface temperature（SST） are used to analyze their relationship with the albedo. The sea ice albedo changed in volatility appears along with time, the trend is not obvious and increases very slightly during the study period at a rate of 0.388% per decade over the Bohai Sea sea ice region.The interannual variation is between 9.93% and 14.50%, and the average albedo is 11.79%. The sea ice albedo in years with heavy sea ice coverage, 1999, 2000 and 2005, is significantly higher than that in other years; in years with light sea ice coverage, 1994, 1998, 2001 and 2006, has low values. For the monthly albedo, the increasing trend（at a rate of 0.988% per decade） in December is distinctly higher than that in January and February. The mean albedo in January（12.90%） is also distinctly higher than that in the other two months. The albedo is significantly positively correlated with the SIC and is significantly negatively correlated with the SST（significance level 90%）.

DYNAMIC VARIATION OF NITROGEN CONTENT IN THE SECOND SONGHUA RIVER

The space time variation laws of nitrogen content in different river sections, water periods and years in the Second Songhua River in China is described in detail. The results show that there is direct relation between the nitrogen content variation in river water and that in wastewater from cities and runoff water of both banks of the river. Nitrate and nitrite contents in water in flood period are higher than that in mid and low water periods. In flood period, nitrate content in water increases gradually with the extension of river section, ammonia content in polluted river section is higher than that in unpolluted river section. Nitrate and nitrite contents in water in the flood, mid and low water periods from 1985 to 1989 were slightly higher than that from 1980 to 1984 and from 1990 to 1994, ammonia content in water increased annually.

LEGENDRE SERIES SOLUTIONS FOR TIME-VARIATION DYNAMICS

In this topic, a new. approach to the analysis of time-variation dynamics is proposed by use of Legendre series expansion and Legendre integral operator matrix. The theoretical basis for effective solution of time-variation dynamics is therefore established, which is beneficial to further research of time-variation science.

China’s corridors-in-the-sky design and space-time congestion identification and the influence of air routes’ traffic flow

With rapid development of air transportation,the airspace structure of the future will need to be flexible and dynamic to accommodate the increase in traffic demand.The corridors-in-the-sky has become a new technology to support the full exploitation and utilization of airspace resources.This paper proposes a method of designing corridor,identifying congestion state,and analyzing the influence of air routes’traffic flow.From this,we have reached a number of conclusions.(1)The congestion periods present the multi-peak"wavy"scattered distributions and the peaks back-end agglomeration characteristics in the whole day.(2)The congestion segments present the structural characteristics of unbalanced coverage and concentrated distribution to the crossing points.The corridors with high congestion level present as an italic"N-shaped"frame,which presents incomplete penetration of short segments.(3)For the temporal and spatial interaction,there are two types of congestion segments,and there are some common congestion periods in different congestion segments of multiple corridors.The high-density air route plays a relatively decisive role in corridor congestion,and the influence of two directions is unbalanced.This research can provide a basis for the dynamic evaluation of China’s airspace resources and corridors construction in the future.

考虑负荷时空均衡和弹性响应的电动汽车快充电价定价策略

为了引导电动汽车有序充电,提出了一种考虑负荷时空均衡和弹性响应的电动汽车快充电价定价策略。引入交通流理论描述交通路网,建立电动汽车快充负荷时空分布模型;考虑配电网调度和电动汽车快充负荷的弹性需求,构建源-荷互动下的快充电价定价架构,并基于潮流追踪法从时空双维度推导快充电价的计算方法;在此基础上,计及电动汽车负荷弹性响应特性,以提升配电网的负荷均衡性为目标,建立快充电价定价策略,并通过迭代算法求解该定价策略。算例仿真结果表明,所提定价策略能够有效引导电动汽车进行有序快充,激励电动汽车用户与配电网友好互动,提升负荷的时空分布均衡性。

非机动车道混合流通行能力计算及特性分析

针对非机动车交错行驶、蛇形运动特点,为更合理计算非机动车道混合流通行能力,提出了一种基于时空消耗的非机动车道混合流通行能力计算方法。通过武汉市7条非机动车道的饱和时段交通流观测数据,采用本文方法计算该7条非机动车道的混合流通行能力;利用数据拟合与方差分析得到不同隔离方式及宽度下非机动车车速及电动自行车比例对单一非机动车平均时空消耗的影响,进而分析非机动车道的混合流通行能力特性。实例研究结果表明:纯电动自行车比纯人力自行车的单一非机动车平均时空消耗约降低2.15 (m2·s)/辆,电动自行车的运行效率高于人力自行车,对通行能力具有提升作用。基于时空消耗的混合非机动车道通行能力计算分析,能克服忽略非机动车行驶特性及多因素简化降低非机动车道混合流通行能力计算精度的弊端,计算原理清晰,便于路上试验开展。

变分贝叶斯Kriging模型预测混沌时间序列

基于变分贝叶斯及Kriging数学思想,提出了一种含噪混沌时间序列的相空间域预测模型。在相空间域中利用变分贝叶斯推断方法估计模型中的回归系数,采用Kriging数学方法估计模型中的随机部分,将该模型对含加性高斯噪声的Lorenz及Mackey-Glass混沌时间序列进行了预测研究;结果表明该文方法能够有效地预测含噪混沌时间序列,且具有较强的抗噪能力以及有效地克服了过拟和现象;同时预测精度对重构相空间的嵌入维数和时间延迟的变化不敏感。

真空吸入式风洞三维非定常流场时空特性

为了给真空吸入式风洞的气动优化设计提供参考,应用空气动力学知识和风洞理论,基于Fluent仿真平台,采用计算流体力学(CFD)有限元体积法求解雷诺时均方程(RANS),研究三维非定常流场的时空特性及其演化规律。通过建立收缩段和真空罐的数学模型,确定其特征参数;应用空气动力学知识,抽象流体的边界条件,构建全尺寸三维流体计算域;采用流体力学数值模拟方法,利用试验验证算法的置信度,并进行数值模拟。结果表明,当真空罐容积为2000 m^(3),真空度为3 kPa时可以较好地模拟悬挂发射装置在空中挂飞和投放瞬间的气动载荷。在试验段流场的核心区,其流场品质较好,可以提供0.80 Ma且至少1 s的稳定流场,满足0.40~0.80 Ma且维持至少500 ms稳定流场的设计要求。该研究结论可以为真空吸入式风洞的设计提供理论基础。

大客流场景下列车时刻表与列车容量分配协同优化研究

为缓解城市轨道交通通勤线路中大客流车站及其下游车站的站台拥挤,降低候车乘客的聚集程度和安全风险,本文从时间和空间角度系统优化城市轨道交通列车容量资源配置。通过考虑时变客流需求和预留车厢策略,提出城轨列车时刻表与列车容量分配协同优化方法。具体地,通过引入列车发车时间、预留车厢数量和客流分配方案相关决策变量,以最小化预留车厢运营成本和站台乘客最大聚集数量为目标,建立列车时刻表与列车容量分配协同优化线性整数规划模型。其中,采用大M方法构建的客流分配约束能够满足乘客在时间和空间上的先到先服务原则。为验证所构建模型的有效性,设置4组数值算例进行对比实验,并采用优化求解器Gurobi求解。结果表明,相较于计划列车时刻表方案和两种单一优化策略方案,协同优化方案能够显著降低最大乘客聚集数量分别约为60%、52%和31%,降低乘客总等待时间分别约为29%、17%和29%。即协同优化方法能够均衡城轨列车容量的时空分布,从而有效降低站台候车乘客的聚集风险。

江西省细分行业碳排放脱钩状态及影响因素分析

为响应经济与环境的协同发展,实现“双碳”发展目标,研究行业碳排放及脱钩情况具有一定现实意义。研究以2000研究行业年江西省各类数据为基础,采用Tapio脱钩模型判别各行业脱钩情况,结合LMDI模型深入研究影响各行业碳排放的驱动因素,厘清脱钩关系背后动因。结果表明:1)2000影响各行业年,江西省碳排增量10188.6×10^(4)t,能源消费结构中以化石能源为主,能源消费强度呈下降趋势。2)研究期内,经济增长对碳排放产生增量效应;人口增长对碳排放呈现先增后减现象;产业结构对碳排放的影响具有波动性且效力较大;能源强度和能源结构对碳排放整体呈现增量作用,各行业存在显著差异。3)研究期内江西省碳排放与经济增长的脱钩情况整体向好,第一产业、第二产业内整体呈现脱钩状态,而第三产业整体处于负脱钩状态。从多角度对江西省细分行业碳排放脱钩进行研究,以期为节能减排、实现产业转型提供参考建议。

大兴安岭山脉中段地区生态系统服务多维度权衡协同关系研究——以兴安盟地区为例

探究不同生态系统服务间的交互耦合关系、开展生态系统服务可持续管理是实现多维生态系统服务协调发展的关键前提。论文基于InVEST与CASA模型、热点分析、相关性与局部空间自相关分析等方法,定量分析2000—2020年处于大兴安岭山脉中段的兴安盟地区多种生态系统服务与植被净生产力(NPP)的时空变化及生态系统服务间的权衡协同关系。结果表明:(1)研究区各生态系统服务总量呈非对称持续上升趋势,空间分布自西北向东南依次递减,降水量的波动致使土壤保持服务与水源涵养服务的增量高于碳存储服务。(2)生态重要程度空间分布自西北向东南依次递减,重点生态区的占地面积增量显著,主要分布在研究区中部地区,生态环境质量得以提升。(3)协同关系是该区域生态系统服务之间的主导关系,各生态系统服务之间的相关程度各异,权衡协同强度较弱。(4)生态系统服务之间权衡协同关系的空间异质性显著,总体上西北与东南为协同区域,中部为权衡区域。研究结论对于实现研究区协调社会经济与生态共同发展具有重要意义。

论唐宋词结构艺术中的时空转换式

时空转换式是唐宋词结构艺术中常见的一种语义结构,是由时间、空间转变的方式展开内容层次,包括时间或长或短的流转、空间或近或远的位移、时空或虚或实的穿梭三种类型。时空转换式在词作中构造出历史时空、想象时空、回忆时空、现实时空、梦境时空等艺术时空,丰富了审美意象,增加了词作的层次感,拓开出新的艺术境界。

基于时空Kriging方法建立深度基准面模型

深度基准面是一个呈阶梯状、不连续的基准面,该特点给海洋测绘及相关活动带来严重的影响。目前建立深度基准面模型的方法有很多,一般采用几何插值方法,其函数模型大多以数据点的位置关系为基础。本文使用时空Kriging法建立深度基准面模型,时空Kriging法综合考虑了海面在时间和空间上的变化特征,通过构建不可分离型时空变异函数,对深度基准值进行插值拟合,并通过实例证实了拟合后的深度基准面模型的精度更高、连续性更好。

基于注意力卷积长短时记忆模型的城市出租车流量预测

为解决城市交通拥堵和安全问题,提出一种注意力卷积长短时记忆(ConvLSTM)残差(ACLR)模型,该模型通过结合ConvLSTM、注意力机制和残差结构,分别处理出租车流量的时间、空间、和其他特征,挖掘区域兴趣点(POI)数据对出租车流量的影响,有效提升交通时空特征的提取能力。同时,引入专门的学习元件考虑外部因素和POI密度对交通流量的影响,并利用北京市出租车轨迹数据验证。结果表明:ACLR模型在城市交通流预测中的精度高于差分自回归滑动平均(ARIMA)模型、长短时记忆(LSTM)网络、深度时空残差网络(ST-ResNet)、卷积神经网络(CNN)-残差神经单元-LSTM(CRL)循环神经网络、ACFM等模型,在无POI密度和考虑POI密度的情况下,均有助于提升模型的预测性能,ACLA模型的预测值与真实值基本一致,高峰时段也能与真实值较好地吻合,有效提升交通时空特征的提取能力,降低预测误差,使得交通流量预测性能得到优化。