With the high-speed development of economy in China, people require higher and higher quality of food, and accidents of food safety in recent years have been reported, causing the promotion of consumption demand on gr...With the high-speed development of economy in China, people require higher and higher quality of food, and accidents of food safety in recent years have been reported, causing the promotion of consumption demand on green food. The paper firstly investigates the current situation of green food industry at home and abroad, then focuses on the analysis of the demand of green food market. We study the balance between the green food and the per capita disposable income in short and long term, through vector auto regression model and co-integration analysis on the income elasticity of demand. The paper shows that, the relationship between green food consumption and per capita disposable income is "bullwhip effect", which means that the per capita disposable income have a significant role to the green food sales in the short term, but no stable co-integration relationship in the long term.展开更多
According to the cultivated area and grain yield during 1996-2008 and adopting the prediction method of farmland demand based on food security,five indexes,including the cultivated area,grain sown area,yearly food yie...According to the cultivated area and grain yield during 1996-2008 and adopting the prediction method of farmland demand based on food security,five indexes,including the cultivated area,grain sown area,yearly food yield per unit area,total population and per capita grain yield,are selected to analyze and predict the farmland demand in Yunnan Province in 2020.As the prediction results of each index show,the total population of Yunnan Province in 2020 will reach 51 464 000,significantly higher than the upper bound(50 million);the per capita food demand of Yunnan Province in 2020 will be 400 kg below the bottom line of the well-off type;food self-sufficient ratio will be respectively given the value of 100%,95% and 90% in three schemes;the prediction will be conducted with the yearly food yield per unit area at an average annual growth rate of 2.5% and 3.0% in two schemes;the rate of grain sowing in 2010 is determined to be 66%.As the prediction results of farmland demand show,there are totally 6 schemes about farmland demand in Yunnan Province obtained through analysis,among them,scheme Ⅰ is difficult to achieve,the prediction results of scheme Ⅳ,Ⅴ and Ⅵ are relatively low,which do not conform to the state policies and regulations to protect farmland and are also not conductive for ensuring the food security;scheme Ⅱ and Ⅲ are close to each other,but scheme Ⅲ obtains better prediction results and determines the farmland demand of Yunnan Province in 2020 based on food security to be 5.9 million so as to ensure the provincial food security and realize the "red line" of basic provincial food self-sufficiency.展开更多
Fresh products have the characteristics of perishable, small batch and high frequency. Therefore, for fresh food e-commerce enterprises, market demand forecasting is particularly important. This paper takes the sales ...Fresh products have the characteristics of perishable, small batch and high frequency. Therefore, for fresh food e-commerce enterprises, market demand forecasting is particularly important. This paper takes the sales data of a fresh food e-commerce enterprise as the logistics demand, analyzes the influence of time and meteorological factors on the demand, extracts the characteristic factors with greater influence, and proposes a logistics demand forecast scheme of fresh food e-commerce based on the Bi-LSTM model. The scheme is compared with other schemes based on the BP neural network and LSTM neural network models. The experimental results show that the Bi-LSTM model has good prediction performance on the problem of logistics demand prediction. This facilitates further research on some supply chain issues, such as business decision-making, inventory control, and logistics capacity planning.展开更多
Previous studies have demonstrated that income has a significant effect on food demand in rural China. However, little research has focused on the dynamic impact of income and income distribution on food demand in rur...Previous studies have demonstrated that income has a significant effect on food demand in rural China. However, little research has focused on the dynamic impact of income and income distribution on food demand in rural China. Using China Health and Nutrition Survey data, this study employs a consistent two-step quadratic almost ideal demand system model, with addressed problems of endogeneity of total expenditure and zero shares, to estimate the food demand elasticities among adults in rural areas with regard to the different income strata. The results show that changes in income and income strata have significant effects on food demand in rural areas. Except for grains, all other food groups, including vegetables, oils and fats, animal products, and other foods, have positive income elasticities, and the rise in the income strata will lead to declining income elasticities for grains, vegetables, oils and fats, and animal products. Based on the estimated income elasticities, the food consumption projections indicate that reducing income inequality in rural society can improve the living standard of low-income people in terms of nutrient intakes.展开更多
基金supported by Study on the relationship between low carbon development and ecological civilization construction in China (201209)
文摘With the high-speed development of economy in China, people require higher and higher quality of food, and accidents of food safety in recent years have been reported, causing the promotion of consumption demand on green food. The paper firstly investigates the current situation of green food industry at home and abroad, then focuses on the analysis of the demand of green food market. We study the balance between the green food and the per capita disposable income in short and long term, through vector auto regression model and co-integration analysis on the income elasticity of demand. The paper shows that, the relationship between green food consumption and per capita disposable income is "bullwhip effect", which means that the per capita disposable income have a significant role to the green food sales in the short term, but no stable co-integration relationship in the long term.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(40861014)the Second National Land Survey of Yunnan Province
文摘According to the cultivated area and grain yield during 1996-2008 and adopting the prediction method of farmland demand based on food security,five indexes,including the cultivated area,grain sown area,yearly food yield per unit area,total population and per capita grain yield,are selected to analyze and predict the farmland demand in Yunnan Province in 2020.As the prediction results of each index show,the total population of Yunnan Province in 2020 will reach 51 464 000,significantly higher than the upper bound(50 million);the per capita food demand of Yunnan Province in 2020 will be 400 kg below the bottom line of the well-off type;food self-sufficient ratio will be respectively given the value of 100%,95% and 90% in three schemes;the prediction will be conducted with the yearly food yield per unit area at an average annual growth rate of 2.5% and 3.0% in two schemes;the rate of grain sowing in 2010 is determined to be 66%.As the prediction results of farmland demand show,there are totally 6 schemes about farmland demand in Yunnan Province obtained through analysis,among them,scheme Ⅰ is difficult to achieve,the prediction results of scheme Ⅳ,Ⅴ and Ⅵ are relatively low,which do not conform to the state policies and regulations to protect farmland and are also not conductive for ensuring the food security;scheme Ⅱ and Ⅲ are close to each other,but scheme Ⅲ obtains better prediction results and determines the farmland demand of Yunnan Province in 2020 based on food security to be 5.9 million so as to ensure the provincial food security and realize the "red line" of basic provincial food self-sufficiency.
文摘Fresh products have the characteristics of perishable, small batch and high frequency. Therefore, for fresh food e-commerce enterprises, market demand forecasting is particularly important. This paper takes the sales data of a fresh food e-commerce enterprise as the logistics demand, analyzes the influence of time and meteorological factors on the demand, extracts the characteristic factors with greater influence, and proposes a logistics demand forecast scheme of fresh food e-commerce based on the Bi-LSTM model. The scheme is compared with other schemes based on the BP neural network and LSTM neural network models. The experimental results show that the Bi-LSTM model has good prediction performance on the problem of logistics demand prediction. This facilitates further research on some supply chain issues, such as business decision-making, inventory control, and logistics capacity planning.
基金the support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71673316)Beijing Food Safety Policy & Strategy Research Base, China+8 种基金the National Institutes of Health (NIH)the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) for R01 HD30880the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) for R01DK104371 and R01HL108427the NIH Fogarty Grant D43 TW009077 for financial support for the CHNS data collection and analysis files since 1989the China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Ministry of Health, for support for the CHNS 2009the Chinese National Human Genome Center at Shanghai since 2009the Beijing Municipal Centers for Disease Prevention and Control since 2011funding from the NICHD to the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (NIH GrantP2C HD050924 and T32 HD007168)。
文摘Previous studies have demonstrated that income has a significant effect on food demand in rural China. However, little research has focused on the dynamic impact of income and income distribution on food demand in rural China. Using China Health and Nutrition Survey data, this study employs a consistent two-step quadratic almost ideal demand system model, with addressed problems of endogeneity of total expenditure and zero shares, to estimate the food demand elasticities among adults in rural areas with regard to the different income strata. The results show that changes in income and income strata have significant effects on food demand in rural areas. Except for grains, all other food groups, including vegetables, oils and fats, animal products, and other foods, have positive income elasticities, and the rise in the income strata will lead to declining income elasticities for grains, vegetables, oils and fats, and animal products. Based on the estimated income elasticities, the food consumption projections indicate that reducing income inequality in rural society can improve the living standard of low-income people in terms of nutrient intakes.
