This paper presents an analysis to forecast the loads of an isolated area where the history of load is not available or the history may not represent the realistic demand of electricity. The analysis is done through l...This paper presents an analysis to forecast the loads of an isolated area where the history of load is not available or the history may not represent the realistic demand of electricity. The analysis is done through linear regression and based on the identification of factors on which electrical load growth depends. To determine the identification factors, areas are selected whose histories of load growth rate known and the load growth deciding factors are similar to those of the isolated area. The proposed analysis is applied to an isolated area of Bangladesh, called Swandip where a past history of electrical load demand is not available and also there is no possibility of connecting the area with the main land grid system.展开更多
[Objective] The research aimed to study the first spring soaking rain weather and its precipitation enhancement potential forecast in Jinzhou area in 2010. [Method] From the weather situation characteristics, main inf...[Objective] The research aimed to study the first spring soaking rain weather and its precipitation enhancement potential forecast in Jinzhou area in 2010. [Method] From the weather situation characteristics, main influence system, forecast service, artificial precipitation enhancement operation and so on, the first spring soaking rain weather process in Jinzhou area in 2010 was summarized comprehensively. [Result] The weather situation characteristics of soaking rain were that the high-altitude cold air was weak, and the low-level warm wet airflow was obvious. The main influence systems were the high-altitude trough, the high-altitude shear line and the ground Mongolian cyclone. The ground inverted trough system advanced northward and got through with the same phase of Mongolian cyclone, which provided the certain energy and water vapor for the precipitation in Jinzhou area. It was one of key reasons for generating the soaking rain. The numerical forecast product played the certain guidance role in the forecast service work. The situation field forecast was accurate, but the precipitation forecast deviation was big. Therefore, the forecast service couldn’t depend on the numerical forecast product simply and totally, and should combine with the actual monitoring data to analyze and apply comprehensively. [Conclusion] The research played the safeguarding role in carrying out the large-scale artificial precipitation enhancement operation successfully in the whole area of Jinzhou.展开更多
The cultivated area is an important component of land resources that has a direct impact on food security. Egyptian cultivated area was estimated to be 3.86 million hectares in 2020. Recently, there has been a decline...The cultivated area is an important component of land resources that has a direct impact on food security. Egyptian cultivated area was estimated to be 3.86 million hectares in 2020. Recently, there has been a decline in cultivated areas, which could be attributed to a number of factors, including climatic changes and urban sprawl, endangering Egyptian sustainable development. So, the aim of the current study was to forecast the values of cultivated areas in Egypt for the next five years using the ARIMA model based on data from 1990 to 2020. The model predicted a decrease in cultivated area in coming years of about 3.06, 3.19, 3.084, 3.082 and 3.21 million hectares, respectively, according to the results. This forecasting will aid the country’s policy development for future land using planning and agricultural production.展开更多
Through the analysis of durative high-temperature weather process occurred in Xingtai area in June of 2010,and the statistics on relative humidity and 850 hPa of temperature on high temperature day in Xingtai area dur...Through the analysis of durative high-temperature weather process occurred in Xingtai area in June of 2010,and the statistics on relative humidity and 850 hPa of temperature on high temperature day in Xingtai area during 2001- 2010,it was concluded that 500 h Pa of stable warm high-pressure ridge situation and 850 hPa of strong warm air mass control were favorable circulation situations for the formation of high temperature;sinking and adiabatic warming of high-altitude air mass was an important cause of high temperature weather generation; ground humidity at 14： 00 was small,that is,the atmosphere was very dry,and it was sunny-cloudy（ high cirrus） weather,which was a necessary condition for the high temperature weather; westerly at some time was favorable condition for high temperature; 850 h Pa of temperature prediction at the station was the key.When the forecasted 850 h Pa of station temperature was 21 ℃ and above,it was reminded the forecasters in the high-temperature forecast process.展开更多
An exact forecast of the failures of a sucker rod-pumped well in a production area means much for an oilfield’s operation budget, operational arrangement and production plan. In this paper, according to the characte...An exact forecast of the failures of a sucker rod-pumped well in a production area means much for an oilfield’s operation budget, operational arrangement and production plan. In this paper, according to the characteristics of failed sucker rod-pumped well randomness and strong outburst, with the gray GM (1,1) forecast model and the Markov forecast model combined, gray GM (1,1) forecast model is utilized to handle the primary data of an oilfield, and Markov forecast model is utilized to calculate the state transfer probability of forecast value. Then, the gray Markov forecast model considering the influence of randomness factors is formed. Field results prove that the calculation precision of this method is higher and the practicability is greater.展开更多
文摘This paper presents an analysis to forecast the loads of an isolated area where the history of load is not available or the history may not represent the realistic demand of electricity. The analysis is done through linear regression and based on the identification of factors on which electrical load growth depends. To determine the identification factors, areas are selected whose histories of load growth rate known and the load growth deciding factors are similar to those of the isolated area. The proposed analysis is applied to an isolated area of Bangladesh, called Swandip where a past history of electrical load demand is not available and also there is no possibility of connecting the area with the main land grid system.
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to study the first spring soaking rain weather and its precipitation enhancement potential forecast in Jinzhou area in 2010. [Method] From the weather situation characteristics, main influence system, forecast service, artificial precipitation enhancement operation and so on, the first spring soaking rain weather process in Jinzhou area in 2010 was summarized comprehensively. [Result] The weather situation characteristics of soaking rain were that the high-altitude cold air was weak, and the low-level warm wet airflow was obvious. The main influence systems were the high-altitude trough, the high-altitude shear line and the ground Mongolian cyclone. The ground inverted trough system advanced northward and got through with the same phase of Mongolian cyclone, which provided the certain energy and water vapor for the precipitation in Jinzhou area. It was one of key reasons for generating the soaking rain. The numerical forecast product played the certain guidance role in the forecast service work. The situation field forecast was accurate, but the precipitation forecast deviation was big. Therefore, the forecast service couldn’t depend on the numerical forecast product simply and totally, and should combine with the actual monitoring data to analyze and apply comprehensively. [Conclusion] The research played the safeguarding role in carrying out the large-scale artificial precipitation enhancement operation successfully in the whole area of Jinzhou.
文摘The cultivated area is an important component of land resources that has a direct impact on food security. Egyptian cultivated area was estimated to be 3.86 million hectares in 2020. Recently, there has been a decline in cultivated areas, which could be attributed to a number of factors, including climatic changes and urban sprawl, endangering Egyptian sustainable development. So, the aim of the current study was to forecast the values of cultivated areas in Egypt for the next five years using the ARIMA model based on data from 1990 to 2020. The model predicted a decrease in cultivated area in coming years of about 3.06, 3.19, 3.084, 3.082 and 3.21 million hectares, respectively, according to the results. This forecasting will aid the country’s policy development for future land using planning and agricultural production.
文摘Through the analysis of durative high-temperature weather process occurred in Xingtai area in June of 2010,and the statistics on relative humidity and 850 hPa of temperature on high temperature day in Xingtai area during 2001- 2010,it was concluded that 500 h Pa of stable warm high-pressure ridge situation and 850 hPa of strong warm air mass control were favorable circulation situations for the formation of high temperature;sinking and adiabatic warming of high-altitude air mass was an important cause of high temperature weather generation; ground humidity at 14： 00 was small,that is,the atmosphere was very dry,and it was sunny-cloudy（ high cirrus） weather,which was a necessary condition for the high temperature weather; westerly at some time was favorable condition for high temperature; 850 h Pa of temperature prediction at the station was the key.When the forecasted 850 h Pa of station temperature was 21 ℃ and above,it was reminded the forecasters in the high-temperature forecast process.
文摘An exact forecast of the failures of a sucker rod-pumped well in a production area means much for an oilfield’s operation budget, operational arrangement and production plan. In this paper, according to the characteristics of failed sucker rod-pumped well randomness and strong outburst, with the gray GM (1,1) forecast model and the Markov forecast model combined, gray GM (1,1) forecast model is utilized to handle the primary data of an oilfield, and Markov forecast model is utilized to calculate the state transfer probability of forecast value. Then, the gray Markov forecast model considering the influence of randomness factors is formed. Field results prove that the calculation precision of this method is higher and the practicability is greater.
