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江西省区域性平流雾气象要素特征分析及预报思路 被引量:23
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作者 许爱华 陈翔翔 +1 位作者 肖安 许彬 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2016年第3期372-381,共10页
利用江西省2000—2012年常规地面观测资料及探空资料,采用合成和统计方法,分析了54次区域性平流雾的天气形势及气象要素,得到了平流雾逆温层、温湿条件、低层风场及影响系统等统计特征。结果表明:(1)江西省区域性平流雾主要发生于2—3月... 利用江西省2000—2012年常规地面观测资料及探空资料,采用合成和统计方法,分析了54次区域性平流雾的天气形势及气象要素,得到了平流雾逆温层、温湿条件、低层风场及影响系统等统计特征。结果表明:(1)江西省区域性平流雾主要发生于2—3月,北部多于南部。(2)其形势特征为:江南地区低层有较明显的暖湿平流。850 hPa上的切变线或辐合区位于长江流域到江淮一带,925和850 hPa西南风速分别达3~8和7~15 m·s^(-1)。地面形势多为弱低压倒槽和锋面前部的低压,其次为高压底部。(3)850 hPa以下低层有相对湿度≥80%的湿层,500 hPa中层多数有相对湿度≤50%的干层。地面气温和露点多在10~16℃,且达到近饱和。(4)平流雾的逆温结构以单层逆温为主,多数比辐射雾逆温层高、厚度大。逆温强度主要在1~3℃。最后给出了江西平流雾(我国南方)的预报着眼点或预报思路。 展开更多
关键词 平流雾 暖平流 逆温 相对湿度 预报着眼点
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Analysis of a Cold Wave Weather Process in Chengdu in March 2010 被引量:8
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作者 LI Xin-yi XIE Na +2 位作者 SHI Juan LI Yu AN Xia 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2011年第6期1-5,10,共6页
[Objective] The aim was to analyze one cold wave weather process in Chengdu in March in 2010.[Method] Based on the NCEP 1°×1° 6 h interval reanalysis data and daily observation data,using synoptic analy... [Objective] The aim was to analyze one cold wave weather process in Chengdu in March in 2010.[Method] Based on the NCEP 1°×1° 6 h interval reanalysis data and daily observation data,using synoptic analysis and diagnosis methods,and combining with the cold wave forecast index in spring of Sichuan,a cold wave event covering the whole region between March 21 and 24,2010 was analyzed from the aspects of circulation background,influencing weather systems and weather causation.[Result] Results showed that the 500 high-altitude cold vortex,700-850 hPa low layer shear,and ground cold front were the main systems that influenced this cold wave;there was a ridge from Lake Balkhash across Lake Baikal at 500 hPa.The early stage of the process was controlled by the high pressure ridge and the temperature was increasing obviously.The daily mean temperature was high.The range of cold high pressure was large and the central intensity was 1 043.0 hPa;the cold air was strong and deep which was in accordance with the strong surface temperature reduction center.The strong north airstream of Lake Balkhash to Lake Baikal,ground cold high pressure center intensity changes,north and south ocean pressure and temperature differences,850 hPa temperature changes,cold advection movement route and intensity were considered as reference factors for the forecast of cold wave intensity.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for improving the forecast ability of cold wave weather. 展开更多
关键词 Cold wave Circulation situation forecast focus Process analysis Chengdu China
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情感预测中的聚焦错觉 被引量:9
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作者 罗寒冰 徐富明 +3 位作者 郭永玉 郑秋强 李彬 张慧 《心理科学进展》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2013年第8期1482-1492,共11页
聚焦错觉是个体在进行情感预测时,错误地估计了聚焦事件会对情绪造成影响的一种倾向。聚焦错觉是造成情感预测偏差的重要原因。其心理机制主要包括直觉预测和可得性模型。聚焦错觉的影响因素主要有预测事件的情感效价、性质,情境因素、... 聚焦错觉是个体在进行情感预测时,错误地估计了聚焦事件会对情绪造成影响的一种倾向。聚焦错觉是造成情感预测偏差的重要原因。其心理机制主要包括直觉预测和可得性模型。聚焦错觉的影响因素主要有预测事件的情感效价、性质,情境因素、个体习惯和文化差异等。其应对策略主要有去焦点化和情感平均。未来的研究应从聚焦错觉与忽视情绪适应的关系、聚焦错觉的产生根源以及聚焦错觉与其他聚焦效应的关系等方面来进一步探讨。 展开更多
关键词 聚焦错觉 直觉预测 可得性模型 情感预测
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Compositional change of seismic event sequences in focal zones during preparation of strong earthquakes 被引量:1
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作者 Artikov T U Ibragimov R S +2 位作者 Ibragimova T L Mirzayev M A Artikov M T 《Geodesy and Geodynamics》 2014年第2期1-8,共8页
The change of the structure of seismic event sequences in focal area in preparation period of strong earthquakes has been studied. Findings show that weak earthquake clustering in time increases in earlier stage of fo... The change of the structure of seismic event sequences in focal area in preparation period of strong earthquakes has been studied. Findings show that weak earthquake clustering in time increases in earlier stage of forming of focal area. However,spatial clustering of seismic events rises at the latest stage. 展开更多
关键词 seismicity structure focus of earthquake seismic regime earthquake forecast
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Application of the probability theory in predicting 3D focusing behaviors of compound X-ray refractive lenses
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作者 乐孜纯 赵新建 +5 位作者 梁静秋 孙雅萍 刘恺 张明 郭淑琴 全必胜 《Chinese Optics Letters》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2005年第10期618-620,共3页
A theoretical method based on the diffractive theory is used for predicting three-dimensional (3D) focusing performances of the compound X-rays refractive lenses (CRLs). However, the derivation of the 3D intensity... A theoretical method based on the diffractive theory is used for predicting three-dimensional (3D) focusing performances of the compound X-rays refractive lenses (CRLs). However, the derivation of the 3D intensity distribution near focus for the X-ray refractive lenses is quite complicated. In this paper, we introduce a simple theoretical method that is based on the first and second moments in the theory of probability. As an example, the 3D focusing performance of a CRL with Si material is predicted. Moreover, the results are compared with those obtained by the diffractive theory. It is shown that the method introduced in this paper is accurate enough. 展开更多
关键词 Applications DIFFRACTION focusING forecasting Performance PROBABILITY REFRACTION Silicon Three dimensional X rays
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