Forecasting solar still performance from conventional weather data variation by machine learning method

Solar stills are considered an effective method to solve the scarcity of drinkable water.However,it is still missing a way to forecast its production.Herein,it is proposed that a convenient forecasting model which just needs to input the conventional weather forecasting data.The model is established by using machine learning methods of random forest and optimized by Bayesian algorithm.The required data to train the model are obtained from daily measurements lasting9 months.To validate the accuracy model,the determination coefficients of two types of solar stills are calculated as 0.935and 0.929,respectively,which are much higher than the value of both multiple linear regression(0.767)and the traditional models(0.829 and 0.847).Moreover,by applying the model,we predicted the freshwater production of four cities in China.The predicted production is approved to be reliable by a high value of correlation(0.868)between the predicted production and the solar insolation.With the help of the forecasting model,it would greatly promote the global application of solar stills.

SeisGuard: A Software Platform to Establish Automatically an Earthquake Forecasting Model

SeisGuard, a system for analyzing earthquake precursory data, is a software platform to search for earthquake precursory information by processing geophysical data from different sources to establish automatically an earthquake forecasting model. The main function of this system is to analyze and process the deformation, fluid, electromagnetic and other geophysical field observing data from ground-based observation, as well as space-based observation. Combined station and earthquake distributions, geological structure and other information, this system can provide a basic software platform for earthquake forecasting research based on spatiotemporal fusion. The hierarchical station tree for data sifting and the interaction mode have been innovatively developed in this SeisGuard system to improve users’ working efficiency. The data storage framework designed according to the characteristics of different time series can unify the interfaces of different data sources, provide the support of data flow, simplify the management and usage of data, and provide foundation for analysis of big data. The final aim of this development is to establish an effective earthquake forecasting model combined all available information from ground-based observations to space-based observations.

Interval grey number sequence prediction by using non-homogenous exponential discrete grey forecasting model

This paper aims to study a new grey prediction approach and its solution for forecasting the main system variable whose accurate value could not be collected while the potential value set could be defined. Based on the traditional nonhomogenous discrete grey forecasting model（NDGM）, the interval grey number and its algebra operations are redefined and combined with the NDGM model to construct a new interval grey number sequence prediction approach. The solving principle of the model is analyzed, the new accuracy evaluation indices, i.e. mean absolute percentage error of mean value sequence（MAPEM） and mean percent of interval sequence simulating value set covered（MPSVSC）, are defined and, the procedure of the interval grey number sequence based the NDGM（IG-NDGM） is given out. Finally, a numerical case is used to test the modelling accuracy of the proposed model. Results show that the proposed approach could solve the interval grey number sequence prediction problem and it is much better than the traditional DGM（1,1） model and GM（1,1） model.

The Water-Bearing Numerical Model and Its Operational Forecasting Experiments PartII: The Operational Forecasting Experiments

おhe water-bearing numerical model is undergone all round examinations during the operational forecasting experiments from 1994 to 1996. A lot of difficult problems arising from the model′s water-bearing are successfully resolved in these experiments through developing and using a series of technical measures. The operational forecasting running of the water-bearing numerical model is realized stably and reliably, and satisfactory forecasts are obtained.

A STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF MICROPHYSICAL PROCESSES ON TYPHOON NIDA(2016) USING A NEW DOUBLE-MOMENT MICROPHYSICS SCHEME IN THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING MODEL

The basic structure and cloud features of Typhoon Nida(2016) are simulated using a new microphysics scheme(Liuma) within the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Typhoon characteristics simulated with the Liuma microphysics scheme are compared with observations and those simulated with a commonly-used microphysics scheme(WSM6). Results show that using different microphysics schemes does not significantly alter the track of the typhoon but does significantly affect the intensity and the cloud structure of the typhoon. Results also show that the vertical distribution of cloud hydrometeors and the horizontal distribution of peripheral rainband are affected by the microphysics scheme. The mixing ratios of rain water and graupel correlate highly with the vertical velocity component and equivalent potential temperature at the typhoon eye-wall region. According to the simulation with WSM 6 scheme,it is likely that the very low typhoon central pressure results from the positive feedback between hydrometeors and typhoon intensity. As the ice-phase hydrometeors are mostly graupel in the Liuma microphysics scheme, further improvement in this aspect is required.

The Water-Bearing Numerical Model and Its Operational Forecasting Experiments Part I: The Water-Bearing Numerical Model

In first paper of articles, the physical and calculating schemes of the water-bearing numerical model are described. The model is developed by bearing all species of hydrometeors in a conventional numerical model in which the dynamic framework of hydrostatic equilibrium is taken. The main contributions are: the mixing ratios of all species of hydrometeors are added as the prognostic variables of model, the prognostic equations of these hydrometeors are introduced, the cloud physical framework is specially designed, some technical measures are used to resolve a series of physical, mathematical and computational problems arising from water-bearing; and so on. The various problems (in such aspects as the designs of physical and calculating schemes and the composition of computational programme) which are exposed in feasibility test, in sensibility test, and especially in operational forecasting experiments are successfully resolved using a lot of technical measures having been developed from researches and tests. Finally, the operational forecasting running of the water-bearing numerical model and its forecasting system is realized stably and reliably, and the fine forecasts are obtained. All of these mentioned above will be described in second paper.

STUDY ON GREY FORECASTING MODEL OF COPPER EXTRACTION RATE WITH BIOLEACHING OF PRIMARY SULFIDE ORE

A model GM （grey model） （1,1） for forecasting the rate of copper extraction during the bioleaching of primary sulphide ore was established on the basis of the mathematical theory and the modeling process of grey system theory. It was used for forecasting the rate of copper extraction from the primary sulfide ore during a laboratory microbial column leaching experiment. The precision of the forecasted results were examined and modified via ＂posterior variance examination＂. The results show that the forecasted values coincide with the experimental values. GM （1,1） model has high forecast accuracy; and it is suitable for simulation control and prediction analysis of the original data series of the processes that have grey characteristics, such as mining, metallurgical and mineral processing, etc. The leaching rate of such copper sulphide ore is low. The grey forecasting result indicates that the rate of copper extraction is approximately 20% even after leaching for six months.

Seismic comprehensive forecast based on modified project pursuit regression

In the research of projection pursuit for seismic comprehensive forecast, the algorithm of projection pursuit regression （PPR） is one of most applicable methods. But generally, the algorithm structure of the PPR is very complicated. By partial smooth regressions for many times, it has a large amount of calculation and complicated extrapolation, so it is easily trapped in partial solution. On the basis of the algorithm features of the PPR method, some solutions are given as below to aim at some shortcomings in the PPR calculation： to optimize project direction by using particle swarm optimization instead of Gauss-Newton algorithm, to simplify the optimal process with fitting ridge function by using Hermitian polynomial instead of piecewise linear regression. The overall optimal ridge function can be obtained without grouping the parameter optimization. The modeling capability and calculating accuracy of projection pursuit method are tested by means of numerical emulation technique on the basis of particle swarm optimization and Hermitian polynomial, and then applied to the seismic comprehensive forecasting models of poly-dimensional seismic time series and general disorder seismic samples. The calculation and analysis show that the projection pursuit model in this paper is characterized by simplicity, celerity and effectiveness. And this model is approved to have satisfactory effects in the real seismic comprehensive forecasting, which can be regarded as a comprehensive analysis method in seismic comprehensive forecast.

Mechanistic Drifting Forecast Model for A Small Semi-Submersible Drifter Under Tide–Wind–Wave Conditions

Understanding the drifting motion of a small semi-submersible drifter is of vital importance regarding monitoring surface currents and the floating pollutants in coastal regions. This work addresses this issue by establishing a mechanistic drifting forecast model based on kinetic analysis. Taking tide–wind–wave into consideration, the forecast model is validated against in situ drifting experiment in the Radial Sand Ridges. Model results show good performance with respect to the measured drifting features, characterized by migrating back and forth twice a day with daily downwind displacements. Trajectory models are used to evaluate the influence of the individual hydrodynamic forcing. The tidal current is the fundamental dynamic condition in the Radial Sand Ridges and has the greatest impact on the drifting distance. However, it loses its leading position in the field of the daily displacement of the used drifter. The simulations reveal that different hydrodynamic forces dominate the daily displacement of the used drifter at different wind scales. The wave-induced mass transport has the greatest influence on the daily displacement at Beaufort wind scale 5–6; while wind drag contributes mostly at wind scale 2–4.

Thermal Error Modeling Method with the Jamming of Temperature-Sensitive Points'Volatility on CNC Machine Tools

Aiming at the deficiency of the robustness of thermal error compensation models of CNC machine tools, the mechanism of improving the models＇ robustness is studied by regarding the Leaderway-V450 machining center as the object. Through the analysis of actual spindle air cutting experimental data on Leaderway-V450 machine, it is found that the temperature-sensitive points used for modeling is volatility, and this volatility directly leads to large changes on the collinear degree among modeling independent variables. Thus, the forecasting accuracy of multivariate regression model is severely affected, and the forecasting robustness becomes poor too. To overcome this effect, a modeling method of establishing thermal error models by using single temperature variable under the jamming of temperature-sensitive points＇ volatility is put forward. According to the actual data of thermal error measured in different seasons, it is proved that the single temperature variable model can reduce the loss of fore- casting accuracy resulted from the volatility of tempera- ture-sensitive points, especially for the prediction of cross quarter data, the improvement of forecasting accuracy is about 5 μm or more. The purpose that improving the robustness of the thermal error models is realized, which can provide a reference for selecting the modelingindependent variable in the application of thermal error compensation of CNC machine tools.

Sensitivities of Numerical Model Forecasts of Extreme Cyclone Events

A global forecast model is used to examine various sensitivities of numerical predictions of three extreme winter storms that occurred near the eastern continental margin of North America: the Ohio Valley blizzard of January 1978, the New England blizzard of February 1978, and the Mid-Atlantic cyclone of February 1979. While medium-resolution simulations capture much of the intensification, the forecasts of the precise timing and intensity levels suffer from various degrees of error. The coastal cyclones show a 5-10 hPa dependence on the western North Atlantic sea surface temperature, which is varied within a range (± 2.5℃) compatible with interannual fluctuations. The associated vertical velocities and precipitation rates show proportionately stronger dependences on the ocean temperature perturbations. The Ohio Valley blizzard, which intensified along a track 700-800 km from the coast, shows little sensitivity to ocean temperature. The effect of a shift of - 10?latitude in the position of the snow boundary is negligible in each case. The forecasts depend strongly on the model resolution, and the coarse-resolution forecasts are consistently inferior to the medium-resolution forecasts. Studies of the corresponding sensitivities of extreme cyclonic events over eastern Asia are encouraged in order to identify characteristics that are common to numerical forecasts for the two regions.

Application of Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average Model in Forecasting the Incidence of Hand-foot-mouth Disease in Wuhan,China

Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008. Application of modern information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful for efficient HFMD prevention and control. A seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model for time series analysis was designed in this study. Eighty-four-month（from January 2009 to December 2015） retrospective data obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Prevention and Control were subjected to ARIMA modeling. The coefficient of determination（R^2）, normalized Bayesian Information Criterion（BIC） and Q-test P value were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of constructed models. Subsequently, the best-fitted ARIMA model was applied to predict the expected incidence of HFMD from January 2016 to December 2016. The best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as（1,0,1）（0,1,1）12, with the largest coefficient of determination（R^2=0.743） and lowest normalized BIC（BIC=3.645） value. The residuals of the model also showed non-significant autocorrelations（P_（Box-Ljung（Q））=0.299）. The predictions by the optimum ARIMA model adequately captured the pattern in the data and exhibited two peaks of activity over the forecast interval, including a major peak during April to June, and again a light peak for September to November. The ARIMA model proposed in this study can forecast HFMD incidence trend effectively, which could provide useful support for future HFMD prevention and control in the study area. Besides, further observations should be added continually into the modeling data set, and parameters of the models should be adjusted accordingly.

A hybrid model for numerical wave forecasting and its implementation-Ⅰ.The wind wave model

The authors make an endeavor to explain why a new hybrid wave model is here proposed when several such models have already been in operation and the so- called third generation wave modej is proving attractive. This part of the paper is devoted to the wind wave model. Both deep and shallow water models have been developed, the former being actually a special case of the latter when water depth is great. The deep water model is exceptionally simple in form. Significant wave height is the only prognostic variable. In comparison with the usual methods to compute the energy input and dissipations empirically or by 'tuning', the proposed model has the merit that the effects of all source terms are combined into one term which is computed through empirical growth relations for significant waves, these relations being, relatively speaking, easier and more reliable to obtain than those for the source terms in the spectral energy balance equation. The discrete part of the model and the implementation of the model as a whole will be discussed in the second part of the present paper.

A New model to forecast fishing ground of Scomber japonicus in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

The pelagic species is closely related to the marine environmental factors, and establishment of forecasting model of fishing ground with high accuracy is an important content for pelagic fishery. The chub mackerel（Scomber japonicus） in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea is an important fishing target for Chinese lighting purse seine fishery. Based on the fishery data from China＇s mainland large-type lighting purse seine fishery for chub mackerel during the period of 2003 to 2010 and the environmental data including sea surface temperature（SST）, gradient of the sea surface temperature（GSST）, sea surface height（SSH） and geostrophic velocity（GV）, we attempt to establish one new forecasting model of fishing ground based on boosted regression trees. In this study, the fishing areas with fishing effort is considered as one fishing ground, and the areas with no fishing ground are randomly selected from a background field, in which the fishing areas have no records in the logbooks. The performance of the forecasting model of fishing ground is evaluated with the testing data from the actual fishing data in 2011. The results show that the forecasting model of fishing ground has a high prediction performance, and the area under receiver operating curve（AUC） attains 0.897. The predicted fishing grounds are coincided with the actual fishing locations in 2011, and the movement route is also the same as the shift of fishing vessels, which indicates that this forecasting model based on the boosted regression trees can be used to effectively forecast the fishing ground of chub mackerel in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea.

Forecasting of China's natural gas production and its policy implications

With the vigorous promotion of energy conservation and implementation of clean energy strategies,China＇s natural gas industry has entered a rapid development phase,and natural gas is playing an increasingly important role in China＇s energy structure.This paper uses a Generalized Weng model to forecast Chinese regional natural gas production,where accuracy and reasonableness compared with other predictions are enhanced by taking remaining estimated recoverable resources as a criterion.The forecast shows that China＇s natural gas production will maintain a rapid growth with peak gas of 323 billion cubic meters a year coming in 2036;in 2020,natural gas production will surpass that of oil to become a more important source of energy.Natural gas will play an important role in optimizing China＇s energy consumption structure and will be a strategic replacement of oil.This will require that exploration and development of conventional natural gas is highly valued and its industrial development to be reasonably planned.As well,full use should be made of domestic and international markets.Initiative should also be taken in the exploration and development of unconventional and deepwater gas,which shall form a complement to the development of China＇s conventional natural gas industry.

Multi-factor high-order intuitionistic fuzzy timeseries forecasting model

Fuzzy sets theory cannot describe the neutrality degreeof data, which has largely limited the objectivity of fuzzy time seriesin uncertain data forecasting. With this regard, a multi-factor highorderintuitionistic fuzzy time series forecasting model is built. Inthe new model, a fuzzy clustering algorithm is used to get unequalintervals, and a more objective technique for ascertaining membershipand non-membership functions of the intuitionistic fuzzy setis proposed. On these bases, forecast rules based on multidimensionalintuitionistic fuzzy modus ponens inference are established.Finally, contrast experiments on the daily mean temperature ofBeijing are carried out, which show that the novel model has aclear advantage of improving the forecast accuracy.

Study on soil erosion dynamics in typical regionof southern China based on remote sensing, GISand gray forecast model

This paper StUdies soil erosion dynamics in the typical region of southem China based onremote sensing, GIS tecndques and gray forecast model. The resultS of survey on Xingguo countyshown the soil eroded area and annual soil erosion amount decreased by 19.09% and 43.05%reSPectively from 1958 to 1988. The results of gray forecast model presented that soil eroded areaincreased from 818.04 km2 in 1988 to 1276.69 km2 in 1995. in the meanthne the total soil erosiollamount decreased from 607.21×104 ba in 1988 to 472. 12 ×104 t/a in 1995. By comparing differentlanduse types, the soil loss modulus of the forest was the lowest with 177. 16~187.75t/km2. a, on thecontraly the bare land was the highest with 10626.76~11265.48 t/km2. a. so the high vegetationcoverage can decrease soil and water loss effectively.

Application of an Error Statistics Estimation Method to the PSAS Forecast Error Covariance Model

In atmospheric data assimilation systems, the forecast error covariance model is an important component. However, the paralneters required by a forecast error covariance model are difficult to obtain due to the absence of the truth. This study applies an error statistics estimation method to the Pfiysical-space Statistical Analysis System （PSAS） height-wind forecast error covariance model. This method consists of two components： the first component computes the error statistics by using the National Meteorological Center （NMC） method, which is a lagged-forecast difference approach, within the framework of the PSAS height-wind forecast error covariance model; the second obtains a calibration formula to rescale the error standard deviations provided by the NMC method. The calibration is against the error statistics estimated by using a maximum-likelihood estimation （MLE） with rawindsonde height observed-minus-forecast residuals. A complete set of formulas for estimating the error statistics and for the calibration is applied to a one-month-long dataset generated by a general circulation model of the Global Model and Assimilation Office （GMAO）, NASA. There is a clear constant relationship between the error statistics estimates of the NMC-method and MLE. The final product provides a full set of 6-hour error statistics required by the PSAS height-wind forecast error covariance model over the globe. The features of these error statistics are examined and discussed.

Application of time series modeling to a national reference frame realization

This paper presents an option for modern dynamic terrestrial reference system realization in Uzbekistan for user needs. An additive model is explored to predict patterns of time series and investigate means of constructing forecast time series models in the future. The main components(trend, periodical, and irregular) of the KIUB(DORIS) and KIT3, TASH, MADK, and MTAL(GNSS) international stations coordinate time series were investigated. It was shown that seasonal nonlinear trends occurred both in the height(U) component of all stations and the east(E) component of high mountainous stations such as MTAL and MADK. The seasonal periodical portion of the time series determined from the additive model has a complicated pattern for all sites and can be explained as both hydrological signals in the region and improvement of observational quality. Amplitudes of the best-fitting sinusoids in the North component ranged between 1.73 and 8.76 mm; the East component ranged between 0.82 and 11.92 mm; and the Up component ranged between 3.11 and 40.81 mm. Regression analysis of the irregular portion of the height component of the two techniques at the Kitab station using tropospheric parameters(pressure and temperature) was confirmed as only 57% of the stochastic portion of the time series.

A hybrid model for numerical wave forecasting and its implementation-Ⅱ .The discrete part and implementation of the model

In the first part of the present paper we have explained why we manage to formulate another wave prediction model when so many of them, including the so-called third generation model, have already been in use. The wind-wave part of the proposed model has also been given. Now we proceed to discuss the swell part,the implementation of the model as a prediction method,mumerical experiments done with ideal wind fields and hindcasts made in the Bohai Sea,in the neighboring seas adjacent to China and in the Northwest Pacific.