Based on the data of sandstorm at 11 stations in Ulanqab City from 1990 to 2021,the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of sand-storm weather were analyzed firstly,and then the conceptual models of cold fro...Based on the data of sandstorm at 11 stations in Ulanqab City from 1990 to 2021,the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of sand-storm weather were analyzed firstly,and then the conceptual models of cold front and Mongolian cyclone sandstorm were obtained by analyzing sandstorm cases.Finally,the forecast points of the two types of sandstorm weather were given to provide some scientific basis and reference for the prediction of local sandstorm weather in the future.展开更多
[Objective] The reason for the unsuccessful forecast of a heavy rainfall event in Yingkou was analyzed. [Method] Based on the precipitation data observed by automatic weather stations and MICAPS data, a heavy rainfall...[Objective] The reason for the unsuccessful forecast of a heavy rainfall event in Yingkou was analyzed. [Method] Based on the precipitation data observed by automatic weather stations and MICAPS data, a heavy rainfall Event was studied in Yingkou from 19 July to 21 July in 2010. Then the analysis of an unsuccessful forecasting for the heavy rainfall on 21 July was illustrated by CINRAD-SA data, satellite data and numerical forecast products. [Result] The main reason for the unsuccessful forecast was that the duration of the rainfall was long and inconsecutive. The distribution was uneven. Strong precipitation on 21st was different from the one in previous two durations. It was regional short term strong precipitation. And the forecast difficulty was large; the numerical forecast was unstable and erroneous;strong precipitation occurred in the night on 20th, which was shortly before the strong precipitation in the evening of 21st. This would easily confuse the reporter. Besides, the short term stillness of radar and cloud during this time would form certain disturbance. The focus of rainstorm forecast should based on the numerical forecast instead of element forecast;insisting on situation analysis and taking element judgment as auxiliary;as for strong precipitation forecast, there was large error in numerical forecast and can not be relied. Reporter should report the correct one based on experience. [Conclusion] The study provided reference for the forecast of rainstorm.展开更多
Aiming at the deficiency of the robustness of thermal error compensation models of CNC machine tools, the mechanism of improving the models＇ robustness is studied by regarding the Leaderway-V450 machining center as t...Aiming at the deficiency of the robustness of thermal error compensation models of CNC machine tools, the mechanism of improving the models＇ robustness is studied by regarding the Leaderway-V450 machining center as the object. Through the analysis of actual spindle air cutting experimental data on Leaderway-V450 machine, it is found that the temperature-sensitive points used for modeling is volatility, and this volatility directly leads to large changes on the collinear degree among modeling independent variables. Thus, the forecasting accuracy of multivariate regression model is severely affected, and the forecasting robustness becomes poor too. To overcome this effect, a modeling method of establishing thermal error models by using single temperature variable under the jamming of temperature-sensitive points＇ volatility is put forward. According to the actual data of thermal error measured in different seasons, it is proved that the single temperature variable model can reduce the loss of fore- casting accuracy resulted from the volatility of tempera- ture-sensitive points, especially for the prediction of cross quarter data, the improvement of forecasting accuracy is about 5 μm or more. The purpose that improving the robustness of the thermal error models is realized, which can provide a reference for selecting the modelingindependent variable in the application of thermal error compensation of CNC machine tools.展开更多
Traditional studies on potential yield mainly referred to attainable yield： the maximum yield which could be reached by a crop in a given environment. The new concept of crop yield under average climate conditions wa...Traditional studies on potential yield mainly referred to attainable yield： the maximum yield which could be reached by a crop in a given environment. The new concept of crop yield under average climate conditions was defined in this paper, which was affected by advancement of science and technology. Based on the new concept of crop yield, the time series techniques relying on past yield data was employed to set up a forecasting model. The model was tested by using average grain yields of Liaoning Province in China from 1949 to 2005. The testing combined dynamic n-choosing and micro tendency rectification, and an average forecasting error was 1.24%. In the trend line of yield change, and then a yield turning point might occur, in which case the inflexion model was used to solve the problem of yield turn point.展开更多
The power systems economic and safety operation considering large-scale wind power penetration are now facing great challenges, which are based on reliable power supply and predictable load demands in the past. A roll...The power systems economic and safety operation considering large-scale wind power penetration are now facing great challenges, which are based on reliable power supply and predictable load demands in the past. A rolling generation dispatch model based on ultra-short-term wind power forecast was proposed. In generation dispatch process, the model rolling correct not only the conventional units power output but also the power from wind farm, simultaneously. Second order Markov chain model was utilized to modify wind power prediction error state (WPPES) and update forecast results of wind power over the remaining dispatch periods. The prime-dual affine scaling interior point method was used to solve the proposed model that taken into account the constraints of multi-periods power balance, unit output adjustment, up spinning reserve and down spinning reserve.展开更多
文摘Based on the data of sandstorm at 11 stations in Ulanqab City from 1990 to 2021,the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of sand-storm weather were analyzed firstly,and then the conceptual models of cold front and Mongolian cyclone sandstorm were obtained by analyzing sandstorm cases.Finally,the forecast points of the two types of sandstorm weather were given to provide some scientific basis and reference for the prediction of local sandstorm weather in the future.
文摘[Objective] The reason for the unsuccessful forecast of a heavy rainfall event in Yingkou was analyzed. [Method] Based on the precipitation data observed by automatic weather stations and MICAPS data, a heavy rainfall Event was studied in Yingkou from 19 July to 21 July in 2010. Then the analysis of an unsuccessful forecasting for the heavy rainfall on 21 July was illustrated by CINRAD-SA data, satellite data and numerical forecast products. [Result] The main reason for the unsuccessful forecast was that the duration of the rainfall was long and inconsecutive. The distribution was uneven. Strong precipitation on 21st was different from the one in previous two durations. It was regional short term strong precipitation. And the forecast difficulty was large; the numerical forecast was unstable and erroneous;strong precipitation occurred in the night on 20th, which was shortly before the strong precipitation in the evening of 21st. This would easily confuse the reporter. Besides, the short term stillness of radar and cloud during this time would form certain disturbance. The focus of rainstorm forecast should based on the numerical forecast instead of element forecast;insisting on situation analysis and taking element judgment as auxiliary;as for strong precipitation forecast, there was large error in numerical forecast and can not be relied. Reporter should report the correct one based on experience. [Conclusion] The study provided reference for the forecast of rainstorm.
基金Supported by Key Project of National Natural Science Fund of China(Grant No.51490660/51490661)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51175142)
文摘Aiming at the deficiency of the robustness of thermal error compensation models of CNC machine tools, the mechanism of improving the models＇ robustness is studied by regarding the Leaderway-V450 machining center as the object. Through the analysis of actual spindle air cutting experimental data on Leaderway-V450 machine, it is found that the temperature-sensitive points used for modeling is volatility, and this volatility directly leads to large changes on the collinear degree among modeling independent variables. Thus, the forecasting accuracy of multivariate regression model is severely affected, and the forecasting robustness becomes poor too. To overcome this effect, a modeling method of establishing thermal error models by using single temperature variable under the jamming of temperature-sensitive points＇ volatility is put forward. According to the actual data of thermal error measured in different seasons, it is proved that the single temperature variable model can reduce the loss of fore- casting accuracy resulted from the volatility of tempera- ture-sensitive points, especially for the prediction of cross quarter data, the improvement of forecasting accuracy is about 5 μm or more. The purpose that improving the robustness of the thermal error models is realized, which can provide a reference for selecting the modelingindependent variable in the application of thermal error compensation of CNC machine tools.
基金Supported by Agricultural Poor-helping Monopoly of Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science (40641002)
文摘Traditional studies on potential yield mainly referred to attainable yield： the maximum yield which could be reached by a crop in a given environment. The new concept of crop yield under average climate conditions was defined in this paper, which was affected by advancement of science and technology. Based on the new concept of crop yield, the time series techniques relying on past yield data was employed to set up a forecasting model. The model was tested by using average grain yields of Liaoning Province in China from 1949 to 2005. The testing combined dynamic n-choosing and micro tendency rectification, and an average forecasting error was 1.24%. In the trend line of yield change, and then a yield turning point might occur, in which case the inflexion model was used to solve the problem of yield turn point.
文摘The power systems economic and safety operation considering large-scale wind power penetration are now facing great challenges, which are based on reliable power supply and predictable load demands in the past. A rolling generation dispatch model based on ultra-short-term wind power forecast was proposed. In generation dispatch process, the model rolling correct not only the conventional units power output but also the power from wind farm, simultaneously. Second order Markov chain model was utilized to modify wind power prediction error state (WPPES) and update forecast results of wind power over the remaining dispatch periods. The prime-dual affine scaling interior point method was used to solve the proposed model that taken into account the constraints of multi-periods power balance, unit output adjustment, up spinning reserve and down spinning reserve.
