A data assimilation-based forecast model of outer radiation belt electron fluxes

Because radiation belt electrons can pose a potential threat to the safety of satellites orbiting in space,it is of great importance to develop a reliable model that can predict the highly dynamic variations in outer radiation belt electron fluxes.In the present study,we develop a forecast model of radiation belt electron fluxes based on the data assimilation method,in terms of Van Allen Probe measurements combined with three-dimensional radiation belt numerical simulations.Our forecast model can cover the entire outer radiation belt with a high temporal resolution(1 hour)and a spatial resolution of 0.25 L over a wide range of both electron energy(0.1-5.0 MeV)and pitch angle(5°-90°).On the basis of this model,we forecast hourly electron fluxes for the next 1,2,and 3 days during an intense geomagnetic storm and evaluate the corresponding prediction performance.Our model can reasonably predict the stormtime evolution of radiation belt electrons with high prediction efficiency(up to~0.8-1).The best prediction performance is found for~0.3-3 MeV electrons at L=~3.25-4.5,which extends to higher L and lower energies with increasing pitch angle.Our results demonstrate that the forecast model developed can be a powerful tool to predict the spatiotemporal changes in outer radiation belt electron fluxes,and the model has both scientific significance and practical implications.

基于BiLSTM-Attention的F_(10.7)指数预测模型与中国自主数据集的应用

F_(10.7)指数是太阳活动的重要指标,准确预测F_(10.7)指数有助于预防和缓解太阳活动对无线电通信、导航和卫星通信等领域的影响.基于F_(10.7)射电流量的特性,在双向长短时记忆网络(Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network,BiLSTM)基础上融入注意力机制(Attention),提出了一种基于BiLSTM-Attention的F_(10.7)预报模型.在加拿大DRAO数据集上其平均绝对误差(MAE)为5.38,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)控制在5%以内,相关系数(R)高达0.987,与其他RNN模型相比拥有优越的预测性能.针对中国廊坊L&S望远镜观测的F_(10.7)数据集,提出了一种转换平均校准(Conversion Average Calibration,CAC)方法进行数据预处理,处理后的数据与DRAO数据集具有较高的相关性.基于该数据集对比分析了RNN系列模型的预报效果,实验结果表明,BiLSTM-Attention和BiLSTM两种模型在预测F_(10.7)指数方面具有较好的优势,表现出较好的预测性能和稳定性.

On the Reconstruction of Teachers’Role of Business English Reading Classroom Teaching Based on Literature Circle

Business English reading teaching under the mode of“literature circles”focuses on cultivating students’autonomy in reading,group cooperation,and the exchange of ideas among group members.In this teaching mode,teachers are no longer the masters of the reading classroom,but the helpers,participants,and researchers in the process of students’reading.The reconstruction of teachers’role can promote the benign development of relationship not only between teachers and students,but also between students and students,inject new impetus and vitality into the classroom,and improve students’reading literacy.

Teacher's Role in the Oral English Class

English speaking has been paid more attention today, especially in the age of globalization. Teachers are attempting to find out more effective methods to enhance the teaching results of English speaking. Facing the great demands and present difficulties of oral English classes, teachers have to conduct more study and practice to find out what roles that an oral English teacher has to take in the oral English classroom. Compared with the traditional teaching role in the English classroom, an oral English teacher has to fulfill more than one role in the classroom teaching so as to provide better learning conditions for students. Lacking more exposure to the real interaction with native speakers, students expect the oral English teacher to be a creator of the language environment. With various teaching and learning activities in the oral English classroom, the teacher has to be a good organizer to ensure every student to achieve improvement. An oral English teacher also has to correct students'language errors while ensuring the smooth progress of the classroom teaching. Only when an oral English teacher make clear what roles he or she has to take in the classroom can he or she achieve effective teaching.

The Exploration of the Helpful Roles Teacher Can Play to Help non-English Major Students Improve Their English Writing

It is commonly known that writing is an advanced skill which is essential in language learning but at the same time the most difficult task for learners. This paper is with the aim to explore helpful roles that teacher can play to help non-English major students improve their English writing, so as to help improve their writing ability in the author's context.

2022年门源M_(S)6.9地震跟踪分析及决策过程回溯——一次有意义的短临预测预报尝试

1研究背景2022年1月8日门源M_(S)6.9地震的跟踪及预报过程,是一次长、中、短、临结合的较为成功的地震预测预报探索,也是在地震系统多年来面临重大压力下的一次成功尝试,具有重要的现实意义、社会意义和科学探索意义。主要因素如下:①门源6.9级地震发生在青海省及全国年度会商会确定的危险区内,表明了从中长期背景。下的正确研判;②在震前即2021年9月以来异常持续增多的背景。下发生的,这些异常的变化引起了青海地震台高度关注,经过持续跟踪分析并及时向青海省地震局分管领导和主管领导汇报,引起了局党组的高度重视,并多次参加会商会共同研判震情;③根据会商结论,青海省地震局撰写专题纪要及时向中国地震局及青海省政府进行汇报和报送,引起了中国地震局和青海省委省政府的高度关注,实施了一系列措施和工作推动;④相关预测预报、风险评估、震情通报等工作的及时推动,同时本次地震未造成人员的伤亡,受到了各层级领导的表扬和肯定,为地震系统争得了较好的正面影响和荣誉,尤其是得到了青海省人民政府与中国地震局的联合发文表扬。

Least Privileges and Role’s Inheritance of RBAC

The main advantages of role-based access control （RBAC） are able to support the well-known security principles and roles＇inheritance. But for there remains a lack of specific definition and the necessary formalization for RBAC, it is hard to realize RBAC in practical work. Our contribution here is to formalize the main relations of RBAC and take first step to propose concepts of action closure and deta closure of a role, based on which we got the specification and algorithm for the least privileges of a role. We propose that roles＇ inheritance should consist of inheritance of actions and inheritance of data, and then we got the inheritance of privileges among roles, which can also be supported by existing exploit tools.

Role of P,S and B on Creep Behavior of Alloy 718

The doping of phosphorus, sulfur and boron in IN718 superalloy can remarkably influence the creep behavior. The modifications of the minor elements seem not to vary the stress exponent and the influences primarily concentrate on the effective diffusion coefficient. A pronounced beneficial interaction between P and B and a weaker detrimental interaction between P and S have been obtained. The preexponential frequency constant is proved to be strongly related with the creep activation energy because of the so-called compensation effect. The compensation temperature has been determined to be about 1080 K, which corresponds to the transformation temperature from rapidly coarsened γ'' phase to δ phase. It has been proposed that trace elements can influence the effective diffusion coefficient individually or cooperatively, which in turn either retard or speed the creep process.

Putative roles of cathepsin B in Alzheimer's disease pathology: the good, the bad, and the ugly in one?

Alzheimer＇s disease（AD）is a fatal progressive neurodegenerative disorder characterized by loss in memory,cognition,and executive function and activities of daily living.AD pathogenesis has been shown to involve loss of neurons and synapses,cholinergic deficits,amyloid-beta protein（Aβ）deposition,tau protein hyperphosphorylation, and neuroinflammation.

Verification of an operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the China＇s seas

An operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the seas off China and adjacent areas（OCFS-C） is developed based on parallelized circulation and wave models. It has been in operation since November 1, 2007. In this paper we comprehensively present the simulation and verification of the system, whose distinguishing feature is that the wave-induced mixing is coupled in the circulation model. In particular, with nested technique the resolution in the China＇s seas has been updated to（1/24）° from the global model with（1/2）°resolution. Besides, daily remote sensing sea surface temperature（SST） data have been assimilated into the model to generate a hot restart field for OCFS-C. Moreover, inter-comparisons between forecasting and independent observational data are performed to evaluate the effectiveness of OCFS-C in upper-ocean quantities predictions, including SST, mixed layer depth（MLD） and subsurface temperature. Except in conventional statistical metrics, non-dimensional skill scores（SS） is also used to evaluate forecast skill. Observations from buoys and Argo profiles are used for lead time and real time validations, which give a large SS value（more than 0.90）. Besides, prediction skill for the seasonal variation of SST is confirmed. Comparisons of subsurface temperatures with Argo profiles data indicate that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 100 m and 150 m. Nevertheless, inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that the MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12 m, i.e., OCFS-C is successful and steady in MLD predictions. Validation of 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecasting SST shows that our operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting model has reasonable accuracy in the upper ocean.

R/S Analysis and its Application in the Forecast of Mine Inflows

In this paper, the status quo and modeling principles of R/S analysis of non-linear theory are introduced and reviewed. Given the hydro-geological conditions of the Wutongzhuang coal mine, Hurst exponents of mine inflow for the main shaft, venti- lating shaft and auxiliary shaft were obtained using R/S analysis, which are 0.772 0, 0.824 7 and 0.905 1 respectively. Since all of the three Hurst exponents are larger than 0.5, it can be concluded that the trend of mine inflow are a long-term as well as persistent problem. Based on the level of duration, the shafts can be listed in decreasing order as the auxiliary shaft, the ventilation shaft and the main shaft, which appears identical with the actual situation of the mine inflow. With R/S analysis, a new method for long-term forecasting of mine inflows is provided.

The role of DJ-1 complexes and catecholamine metabolism： relevance for familial and idiopathic Parkinson＇s disease

Autosomal recessive mutations in the PARK7 gene,which encodes for the protein DJ-1,result in a loss of function and are a cause of familial Parkinson’s disease（PD）,while increased wild-type DJ-1protein levels are associated with some forms of cancer.Several functions of DJ-1 have been described,with the greatest evidence indicating that DJ-1 is a redox-sensitive protein involved in the regulation of oxidative stress and cell survival.

Forecasting Inflation Rate of Zambia Using Holt’s Exponential Smoothing

In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2010 to May 2014. Results show that the ARIMA ((12), 1, 0) is an adequate model which best fits the CPI time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting CPI and subsequently the inflation rate. However, the choice of the Holt’s exponential smoothing is as good as an ARIMA model considering the smaller deviations in the mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the Holt’s exponential smoothing model is less complicated since you do not require specialised software to implement it as is the case for ARIMA models. The forecasted inflation rate for April and May, 2015 is 7.0 and 6.6 respectively.

The Changing Role of Chinese Women in History--From the Dream of Red Mansions to the Moment in Peking

In the history of feudal society,women were suffering from the oppression and inequality in their family and status,and also strict restriction from the society.Their freedom was limited and they could not make full use of their wisdom,and abili ty.But the role of women did not stay the same during the feudal society.It had changed though the fundamental role remained the same.Here in this essay,it mainly talked about the changing role of Chinese in history,from the beginning of the Qing Dy nasty to the end of the Qing Dynasty.It collected information,and evidences from two books which were of great value to inves tigate women's role.They were Cao Xueqin's the Dream of Red Mansions and Lin Yutang's Moment in Peking.A great por tion of these two book's main characters were women,no matter what their social statuses were,no matter what roles they were playing in the big feudal family.Based on the result of analysis,the study suggests that women have been making progress all the time in changing their situation.And the development of economy has given women immense chances to achieve their self-actu alization.

Discussion on Teacher's Role under Life Threatening Circumstances

This paper first reviewed a controversial case in which a teacher ran away from his students in a earthquake. Several educational ethnic questions were aroused from the case: Is protecting students part of teacher's job? To what extent should it be applied? etc. Then the author aims to answer these questions based on a real case study from philosophical perspective, that is, analyzing teacher's role(i) as a human being;(ii) as a educator;(iii) as a educatee. Finally the paper concludes that teachers should protect their students even under life threatening circumstances.

An Analysis of the Readers' Roles in the Construction of Meaning in John Donne's The Flea under Reader-Oriented Theory

Among the sundry studies in China on John Donne's The Flea,there has been none done from the perspective of Reader-Oriented Theory to probe into the readers' roles in the construction of meaning.The present article under Wolfgang Iser's theories,in a further pursuit of the expansion of the gestalt of such studies on the poem,aims at exploring the readers' active roles in complementing,completing and recreating the textual meaning,and differentiating the implied reader and the actual reader through the poem as well as attempting to fulfill the construction of the reading cognitive model through the interpretation of the conceit the flea.

Forecasting Short Time Series with Missing Data by Means of Energy Associated to Series

In this work an algorithm to predict short times series with missing data by means energy associated of series using artificial neural networks (ANN) is presented. In order to give the prediction one step ahead, a comparison between this and previous work that involves a similar approach to test short time series with uncertainties on their data, indicates that a linear smoothing is a well approximation in order to employ a method for uncompleted datasets. Moreover, in function of the long- or short-term stochastic dependence of the short time series considered, the training process modifies the number of patterns and iterations in the topology according to a heuristic law, where the Hurst parameter H is related with the short times series, of which they are considered as a path of the fractional Brownian motion. The results are evaluated on high roughness time series from solutions of the Mackey-Glass Equation (MG) and cumulative monthly historical rainfall data from San Agustin, Cordoba. A comparison with ANN nonlinear filters is shown in order to see a better performance of the outcomes when the information is taken from geographical point observation.

Forecasting Oil Production in North Dakota Using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (S-ARIMA)

North Dakota’s oil production has been rapidly increasing during the past several years. The state’s oil production in March 2013 even increased to more than twice the quantity produced in March 2011, and the estimated Bakken Formation reserves were reported very large compared with those of the United Arab Emirates. It eventually makes a question to us of how much oil will be able to be actually extracted with currently available technologies. To answer this question, this paper forecasts future oil development trend in North Dakota using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (S-ARIMA) model. Nonstationarity derived from a stochastic trend and the abrupt structural change of oil industry was a big potential problem, but through the Quandt Likelihood Ratio test, we found break points, which allowed us to select a model fitting period suitable for the S-ARIMA method to provide accurate statistical inference for the historical period. The seven major oil producing counties were investigated to determine whether the current oil boom was consistent across all oil fields in North Dakota. Empirical estimates show that North Dakota’s oil production will be more than double in the next five years. What we can predict with great certainty is that North Dakota’s influence over domestic and global oil supply systems will increase in the near future, especially over the next five to six years. This is good news for those who are concerned about domestic energy security in the USA.

Probability forecast of earthquake magnitude in Chinese mainland before A．D． 2005

A probability forecast method of earthquake magnitude, based on the earthquake frequency magnitude relation and the model of Bernoulli′s random independent trial, is applied to the earthquake risk assessment of seismic zones in China's Mainland before A.D.2005 in the paper. The forecasting results indicate that the probabilities of earthquake occurrence with magnitude 5 in seismic zones before 2005 are estimated to be over 0.7 in common and 0.8 in most zones; and from 0.5 to 0.7 with M =6; the maximum probability of earthquake occurrence with magnitude 7 is estimated at 0.858, which is also expected in Shanxi seismic zone. In west China's Mainland, earthquakes with magnitude 6 are expected to occur in most seismic zones with high probability (over 0.9 in general) ; the relatively high probabilities of earthquake occurrence (more than 0.7) with magnitude 7 are expected in the seismic zones surrounding the Qinghai Tibet plateau and south Tianshan seismic zone. A discussion about the result confidence and the relationship between the estimated probability and the possible annual rate of earthquake occurrence is made in the last part of the paper.

China's Rising Role

Along with the progress in breadth and depth of international arms controland disarmament, US-led Western nations are increasingly in need of China’s co-operation. They began to seek consultations and coordination with China. This hasled to China’ s bigger say and rising role in international arms control.