Oil and gas exploration and production is the most important and key segment in the whole business chain of the petroleum industry.Therefore,oil companies always put much emphasis on making scientific and reasonable d...Oil and gas exploration and production is the most important and key segment in the whole business chain of the petroleum industry.Therefore,oil companies always put much emphasis on making scientific and reasonable decisions about investment scale and structure in the upstream sector,so that they can minimise business risks and obtain high returns.According to the system dynamics theories and methods and based on the actual results from an oil company＇s practice in China,a system dynamics model is built in this paper for analyzing and forecasting the upstream investment scale and structure for an oil company.This model was used to analyze the investment effect of a large oil company in China, and the results showed that the total upstream investment scale will decline slowly in a short period and the investment proportion of different parts should be adjusted if some influencing factors are taken into account.This application practice was compared with the actual data and indicated that the system dynamics（SD） model presented in this paper is a useful tool for analyzing and forecasting of upstream investment scale and structure of oil companies in their investment decisions.展开更多
The economies during the post-industrial era are returning to the classical meaning of manufacturing sector in the process of balanced regional growth and are searching for stimuli for diversifying economic structure ...The economies during the post-industrial era are returning to the classical meaning of manufacturing sector in the process of balanced regional growth and are searching for stimuli for diversifying economic structure and reindustrialization. Expansion of a new growth theory highlighted the necessity for the well-developed so-called innovative manufacturing sector; however, stimuli for realizing the potential of this sector are limited due to relative attractiveness of sectors with lower risks and faster returns especially in regions followers. Moreover, regional success as a result of the previous development can hinder changes and stimulate economic agents to avoid regions and sectors with high potential but weak performance. Generation of regional economic growth can be considered in a framework of two kinds of stimuli as financial and structural. Financial capital as an important factor for supporting structural change in economy helps to stay in harmony with the modern economy; however, existing sectoral composition can be persistent to changes. Latvia is considered as a case study about issues on fmancial and structural stimuli for regional growth because of the bright dominance of capital city region （high regional differentiation） and typical post-industrial economic structure in parallel with an intention to actively participate in reindustrialization and increase the innovativeness of economy. This article searches whether foreign investment stock in a company＇s equity capital provides a stimulus for an industrial change at a micro level （five regions and 12 manufacturing sectors in accordance with statistical classification of economic activities NACE 2 Rev. （Nomenclature generale des Activities economiques dans les Communuates Europeennes） two-digit level） and whether this change contributes to the regional growth. Unbalanced regional growth as a result of reallocation of financial resources among sectors of economic activity and differences in distribution of economic success at a sectoral level provide a useful foundation for testing the impact of foreign direct investments （FDI） on changes in economic structure.展开更多
The impressive development of China's economy over the past few decades has enabled non-financial firms to adopt financial investment in exchange for enhanced financing behavior and short-term profit(shareholder v...The impressive development of China's economy over the past few decades has enabled non-financial firms to adopt financial investment in exchange for enhanced financing behavior and short-term profit(shareholder value)maximization,while the persistence of fixed investment leading to dramatic capital accumulation has spurred the nation's rapid economic growth.The existing literature has extensive discussions on the crowd-out effect of financial activities on non-financial firms'fixed investment but overlooks to what extent and under what forces financial activities potentially benefit real investment.This paper investigates whether profits from financial activities have an inverted U-shape relationship with firms'fixed investment.In particular,we aim to identify if the benefit of financial profit on fixed investment is through the financial constraint channel and/or ownership structure channel for Chinese-listed firms from 2003 to 2018.We present robust evidence to support the inverted U-shape relationship between financial profit and fixed investment for the whole sample of firms as well as the split samples of firms(SOEs and non-SOEs).Moreover,among all channels including cash flow,debt financing,managerial shareholding,ownership concentration,and state ownership,this research documents that financial profit mainly benefits firms by reducing debt burden.Firms with concentrated ownership and strong state shareholding are also more likely to crowd-out real investment or potentially alleviate overinvestment.Nevertheless,non-SOEs are more prone to benefit from financial profits by reducing the debt overhang problem than SOEs,whereas ownership concentration for SOEs non-increments the crowd-out effect.展开更多
Stock index forecasting has been one of the most widely investigated topics in the field of financial forecasting. Related studies typically advocate for tuning the parameters of forecasting models by minimizing learn...Stock index forecasting has been one of the most widely investigated topics in the field of financial forecasting. Related studies typically advocate for tuning the parameters of forecasting models by minimizing learning errors measured using statistical metrics such as the mean squared error or mean absolute percentage error. The authors argue that statistical metrics used to guide parameter tuning of forecasting models may not be meaningful, given the fact that the ultimate goal of forecasting is to facilitate investment decisions with expected profits in the future. The authors therefore introduce the Sharpe ratio into the process of model building and take it as the profit metric to guide parameter tuning rather than using the commonly adopted statistical metrics. The authors consider three widely used trading strategies, which include a na¨?ve strategy, a filter strategy and a dual moving average strategy, as investment scenarios. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed profit guided approach, the authors carry out simulation experiments using three global mainstream stock market indices. The results show that profit guided forecasting models are competitive, and in many cases produce significantly better performances than statistical error guided models. This implies thatprofit guided stock index forecasting is a worthwhile alternative over traditional stock index forecasting practices.展开更多
文摘Oil and gas exploration and production is the most important and key segment in the whole business chain of the petroleum industry.Therefore,oil companies always put much emphasis on making scientific and reasonable decisions about investment scale and structure in the upstream sector,so that they can minimise business risks and obtain high returns.According to the system dynamics theories and methods and based on the actual results from an oil company＇s practice in China,a system dynamics model is built in this paper for analyzing and forecasting the upstream investment scale and structure for an oil company.This model was used to analyze the investment effect of a large oil company in China, and the results showed that the total upstream investment scale will decline slowly in a short period and the investment proportion of different parts should be adjusted if some influencing factors are taken into account.This application practice was compared with the actual data and indicated that the system dynamics（SD） model presented in this paper is a useful tool for analyzing and forecasting of upstream investment scale and structure of oil companies in their investment decisions.
文摘The economies during the post-industrial era are returning to the classical meaning of manufacturing sector in the process of balanced regional growth and are searching for stimuli for diversifying economic structure and reindustrialization. Expansion of a new growth theory highlighted the necessity for the well-developed so-called innovative manufacturing sector; however, stimuli for realizing the potential of this sector are limited due to relative attractiveness of sectors with lower risks and faster returns especially in regions followers. Moreover, regional success as a result of the previous development can hinder changes and stimulate economic agents to avoid regions and sectors with high potential but weak performance. Generation of regional economic growth can be considered in a framework of two kinds of stimuli as financial and structural. Financial capital as an important factor for supporting structural change in economy helps to stay in harmony with the modern economy; however, existing sectoral composition can be persistent to changes. Latvia is considered as a case study about issues on fmancial and structural stimuli for regional growth because of the bright dominance of capital city region （high regional differentiation） and typical post-industrial economic structure in parallel with an intention to actively participate in reindustrialization and increase the innovativeness of economy. This article searches whether foreign investment stock in a company＇s equity capital provides a stimulus for an industrial change at a micro level （five regions and 12 manufacturing sectors in accordance with statistical classification of economic activities NACE 2 Rev. （Nomenclature generale des Activities economiques dans les Communuates Europeennes） two-digit level） and whether this change contributes to the regional growth. Unbalanced regional growth as a result of reallocation of financial resources among sectors of economic activity and differences in distribution of economic success at a sectoral level provide a useful foundation for testing the impact of foreign direct investments （FDI） on changes in economic structure.
文摘The impressive development of China's economy over the past few decades has enabled non-financial firms to adopt financial investment in exchange for enhanced financing behavior and short-term profit(shareholder value)maximization,while the persistence of fixed investment leading to dramatic capital accumulation has spurred the nation's rapid economic growth.The existing literature has extensive discussions on the crowd-out effect of financial activities on non-financial firms'fixed investment but overlooks to what extent and under what forces financial activities potentially benefit real investment.This paper investigates whether profits from financial activities have an inverted U-shape relationship with firms'fixed investment.In particular,we aim to identify if the benefit of financial profit on fixed investment is through the financial constraint channel and/or ownership structure channel for Chinese-listed firms from 2003 to 2018.We present robust evidence to support the inverted U-shape relationship between financial profit and fixed investment for the whole sample of firms as well as the split samples of firms(SOEs and non-SOEs).Moreover,among all channels including cash flow,debt financing,managerial shareholding,ownership concentration,and state ownership,this research documents that financial profit mainly benefits firms by reducing debt burden.Firms with concentrated ownership and strong state shareholding are also more likely to crowd-out real investment or potentially alleviate overinvestment.Nevertheless,non-SOEs are more prone to benefit from financial profits by reducing the debt overhang problem than SOEs,whereas ownership concentration for SOEs non-increments the crowd-out effect.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71601147,71571080,and 71501079the Central Universities under Grant No.104-413000017the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No.2015M582280
文摘Stock index forecasting has been one of the most widely investigated topics in the field of financial forecasting. Related studies typically advocate for tuning the parameters of forecasting models by minimizing learning errors measured using statistical metrics such as the mean squared error or mean absolute percentage error. The authors argue that statistical metrics used to guide parameter tuning of forecasting models may not be meaningful, given the fact that the ultimate goal of forecasting is to facilitate investment decisions with expected profits in the future. The authors therefore introduce the Sharpe ratio into the process of model building and take it as the profit metric to guide parameter tuning rather than using the commonly adopted statistical metrics. The authors consider three widely used trading strategies, which include a na¨?ve strategy, a filter strategy and a dual moving average strategy, as investment scenarios. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed profit guided approach, the authors carry out simulation experiments using three global mainstream stock market indices. The results show that profit guided forecasting models are competitive, and in many cases produce significantly better performances than statistical error guided models. This implies thatprofit guided stock index forecasting is a worthwhile alternative over traditional stock index forecasting practices.
