Quantitative Simulation of Dynamic Changes in Cultivated Land in Areas of Reclamation and Returning Cultivated Land to Forest or Pastures under RCPs Climate Scenarios

Northeast China as one of important agricultural production bases is an area under reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures. Therefore, it is of great practical significance in guaranteeing the sustainable development and national food security to study the spatial and temporal variation of cultivated land in Northeast China under future climate scenarios. In this study, based on data of land use, natural environment and social-economy, dynamics of land system（DLS） model was used to to simulate the spatial distribution and changing trends of cultivated land in the typical areas of reclamation and returning cultivated land to forest or pastures in Northeast China during 2010-2030 under land use planning scenario and representative concentration pathways（RCPs） scenarios quantitatively.The results showed that the area of cultivated land had an overall decreasing trend under the land use planning scenario, but the area of upland field increased slightly from 2000 to 2010 and then declined greatly, while the area of paddy field continuously declined from 2000 to 2030. Under the Asia-Pacific Integrated model（AIM）scenario, the total area of cultivated land had a tendency to increase considerably,with the upland field expanding more obviously and the paddy field declining slightly.In addition, the cultivated land showed a greater decreasing trend under the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact（MESSAGE） scenario compared to the land use planning scenario. Moreover, analysis on the conversion between different land use types indicated that the reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures was likely to continue under future scenarios, but the frequency of occurrence could decrease as the time goes by. The conclusions can provide significant decision-making information for the rational agricultural planning and cultivated land protection in Northeast China to adapt to the climate change.

LAND RESOURCE CHARACTERISTICS AND RATIONAL LAND-USE ARRANGEMENT FOR FARMING,FORESTRY AND ANIMAL HUSBANDRY IN “THREE NORTHS” SHELTER FOREST AREA

The "Three Norths" (Northeastern China, Northern China, and Northwestern China)Shelter forest area is located in the north part of china. The area of this region occupies41% of the total area of China. This region is eager for being managed because of its fragileecological conditions. Therefore, the basic approach to realize the harmonious developmentof ecological and economic benefits is the rational arrangement of farming, forestry and pas-ure land according to the characteristics of land resources of this region.

Simulation on the dynamics of forest area changes in Northeast China

There is plenty of forests in Northeast China which contributes a lot to the conservation of water and land resources, produces timber products, and provides habitats for a huge number of wild animals and plants. With changes of socio-economic factors as well as the geophysical conditions, there are dramatic changes on the spatial patterns of forest area. In this sense, it is of great significance to shed light on the dynamics of forest area changes to find the underlining reasons for shaping the changing patterns of forest area in Northeast China. To explore the dynamics of forest area change in Northeast China, an econometric model is developed which is composed of three equations identifying forestry production, conversion from open forest to closed forest and conversion from other land uses to closed forest so as to explore the impacts on the forest area changes from demographic, social, economic, location and geophysical factors. On this basis, we employ the Dynamics of Land System （DLS） model to simulate land-use conversions between forest area and non-forest cover and the land-use conversions within the sub-classes of forest area for the period 2000-2020 under business as usual scenario, environmental protection scenario and economic growth scenario. The simulation results show that forest area will expand continuously and there exist various kinds of changing patterns for the sub-classes of forest area, for example, closed forest will expand continuously and open forest and shrub will decrease a little bit, while area of other forest will keep intact. The research results provide meaningful decision-making information for conserving and exploiting the forest resources and makJng out the planning for forestry production Jn the Northeast China region.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamic of Land Use in the Dja-Odzala-MinkébéLandscape between Cameroon, Congo and Gabon: Influence on the Evolution of Forest Cover in a Context of Cross-Border Cooperation

This study is being carried out in the cross-border area of the tri-national Dja-Odzala-Minkébé (TRIDOM), subject of a cooperation agreement between Cameroon, Congo and Gabon in 2005. The purpose of this study is to analyze the dynamics of changes in land use in the context of cross-border cooperation. Geographic information systems and remote sensing were used to produce the various land use maps. For this purpose, the MERIS satellite images for the periods 1992, 2005 and 2018 were used. The exploration of the different images and the field visits made it possible to identify the following six land use classes: dense forests, degraded/deforested forests, savannas, swamp forests, buildings and bare soils, water surfaces. It emerges that the TRIDOM landscape is mainly occupied by dense forests which represent 97.02%, 96.72% and 96.52% respectively in 1992, 2005 and 2018. Then, degraded/deforested forests and savannas which would correspond to cultivation areas and fallow land only represent respectively 1.06% and 0.68% of the landscape in 1992. This proportion in 2005 is respectively 1.22% and 0.77%, whereas in 2018, it is respectively 1.36% and 0.81% of the massif. The landscape of TRIDOM has not experienced any significant land use change during the period after the signing of the cooperation agreement. Historical rates of deforestation are low during the period under study. They are estimated at 0.042% and 0.030% respectively for the period 1992-2005 and the period 2005-2018. These low rates of deforestation seem to be due to the measures taken to secure and sustainably manage the massif taken by the three countries, the low population density in this area and the still difficult level of accessibility of a large part of the massif.

基于一种土地利用变化新指标的土地利用变化影响因素分析——以大兴安岭林牧交错区为例

研究土地利用变化机制,是保障生态脆弱区生态环境良性发展的必然要求。基于土地利用信息图谱构建新指标——土地利用转换度,借助土地利用转移矩阵和土地利用转换度刻画1990—2021年研究区土地利用转移的宏观特征,构建渔网提取土地利用转换度,分析其空间自相关性,并用地理加权回归(GWR)分析研究区土地利用变化的影响因素,为林牧交错区社会经济发展服务。研究发现:(1)1990—2021年,研究区土地利用类型的宏观格局变化不大,林地和草地是该区域的主要用地类型,林地主要分布在东部和北部的山区,草地主要分布在西南部,耕地主要分布于山地和草原交接的地区及河谷地带。(2)1990—2021年林地呈现增加趋势,草地逐年减少,耕地和建设用地缓慢增加。(3)草地、耕地和林地是该地区土地利用变动的主要类型,以草地转出最多,主要转换为林地和耕地。(4)土地利用转换度有显著空间自相关,存在明显的高高聚集和低低聚集。转换频繁区呈倒“C”字形,分布在大兴安岭西部山区与草地过渡带,即海拔700~900 m的地带。(5)GWR分析发现坡度、气温变化、人均GDP变化是影响该区土地利用的主要因素,人均GDP增加会降低土地利用转换度,而其他因素增加会导致土地利用转换加速。(6)土地利用转换度是一种可靠的土地利用变化度量指标,能够将空间和时间融合反映土地利用状态的变化强度。

中国陆地边境地区城镇化与生态系统健康的动态交互响应

研究目的:探究边境地区城镇化与生态系统健康的变化情况及两者的相互解耦状态特征,为区域经济和环境协调发展提供参考。研究方法:城镇化发展水平测定、生态系统健康评价、随机森林模型、解耦模型。研究结果:(1)在时间维度上,综合城镇化由萌芽阶段升为初步发展阶段,人口、土地、经济、社会城镇化水平均呈上升趋势;生态系统健康整体呈波动下降趋势,表现为生态系统自然健康下降,但综合生态系统服务指数提升。(2)在空间维度上,综合城镇化等级较高的地区多分布在内蒙区,等级较低的地区多分布在新疆区;生态系统健康指数较高的地区多分布在东北区、滇桂区和西藏区,指数较低的地区多分布在内蒙区和新疆区。(3)土地城镇化对生态系统健康变化的影响日益显著。(4)城镇化与生态系统健康间的解耦关系在2000—2020年呈现出由扩张性负解耦到强解耦的变化趋势。研究结论:边境地区城镇化与生态系统健康解耦状态多变且区域差异显著,沿边地区在发展经济的同时,需因地制宜提出生态保护措施,实现经济与环境的可持续发展。

Simulating long-term effect of Hyrcanian forest loss on phosphorus loading at the sub-watershed level

Conversion of forest land to farmland in the Hyrcanian forest of northern Iran increases the nutrient input, especially the phosphorus（P） nutrient, thus impacting the water quality. Modeling the effect of forest loss on surface water quality provides valuable information for forest management. This study predicts the future impacts of forest loss between 2010 and 2040 on P loading in the Tajan River watershed at the sub-watershed level. To understand drivers of the land cover, we used Land Change Modeler（LCM） combining with the Soil Water Assessment Tool（SWAT） model to simulate the impacts of land use change on P loading. We characterized priority management areas for locating comprehensive and cost-effective management practices at the sub-watershed level. Results show that agricultural expansion has led to an intense deforestation. During the future period 2010–2040, forest area is expected to decrease by 34,739 hm^2. And the areas of pasture and agriculture are expected to increase by 7668 and 27,071 hm^2, respectively. In most sub-watersheds, P pollution will be intensified with the increase in deforestation by the year 2040. And the P concentration is expected to increase from 0.08 to 2.30 mg/L in all of sub-watersheds by the year 2040. It should be noted that the phosphorous concentration exceeds the American Public Health Association′s water quality standard of 0.2 mg/L for P in drinking water in both current and future scenarios in the Tajan River watershed. Only 30% of sub-watersheds will comply with the water quality standards by the year 2040. The finding of the present study highlights the importance of conserving forest area to maintain a stable water quality.

宁南黄土区典型林分林下草本植被根系分布特征

以宁南黄土区彭阳中庄小流域4种典型林分(山杏林、山桃林、山杏柠条林、山杏沙棘林)林下草本植被为研究对象,通过采用样方-根钻法和Win RHIZO根系分析系统对不同林地0~30 cm土层的草本根系生物量和分布特征进行了定量分析,以期揭示宁南黄土区不同人工林下草本根系分布特征,为研究区生态恢复和林分配置提供参考依据。结果表明:各林地草本总生物量、总根长密度和总根系表面积密度均表现出山杏柠条和山杏沙棘混交林较大,山杏林和山桃林较小且相差不大。根系参数主要分布于0~10 cm,随着土壤深度的增加各指标均呈现递减的趋势。0~30 cm土层不同径级的根长密度和根表面积密度基本以0~0.5 mm径级的根系分布最广,0~2 mm径级的细根所占比例较大,且随着根系直径的增加二者基本呈现下降趋势。不同土层不同径级的根长密度基本表现为0~0.5 mm>0.5~1 mm>1~2 mm>2~3.5 mm>3.5 mm。总体反映出混交林林下草本植被各根系参数相较于纯林在土壤表层占比均较高,能够有效改善表层土壤结构,提高土壤抗侵蚀性能。

采煤沉陷区人工林地土壤肥力质量的空间特征

以焦作市韩王矿沉陷区林地土壤为研究对象,测定不同沉陷部位和不同深度土壤中8项肥力指标,基于隶属度函数和灰色关联度分析法,对沉陷区土壤肥力质量进行评价。结果表明:沉陷区林地土壤硝氮、全氮、速效钾、全钾和有机质含量在不同层位之间存在显著性差异(P<0.05),上层(0 cm~20 cm)硝氮、速效钾和有机质含量显著高于下层(20 cm~40 cm);土壤肥力质量在空间上呈现出明显的变化特征,坡中处最高,坡底处最低;速效磷是影响沉陷区土壤肥力质量提升的限制性因子。

长春净月高新技术产业开发区森林资源动态变化分析

以长春净月高新技术产业开发区2011年、2018年两期森林资源调查成果调查规划设计为依据,对净月区林地面积、森林覆盖率和蓄积量等变化情况进行统计,分析森林资源变化特点及趋势,为提高当地森林可持续经营水平,实现生态文明建设和助力“碳达峰、碳中和”目标提供参考。

唐山市森林生态体系建设研究

在对唐山市森林生态系统现状深入研究基础上,提出发展潜力,分析发展问题,探索唐山市如何在准确把握新发展阶段,深入贯彻新发展理念,主动融入新发展格局,全力推进创新绿色高质量发展的大背景下,明确目标、落实任务、打造一系列重点项目,是“十四五”时期和到2035年唐山市森林生态系统保护和建设的总体蓝图和行动纲领。与此同时,形成了一套完整、科学、合理、可借鉴的森林生态体系建设方法。

河北雾灵山国家级自然保护区土地利用及资源现状分析

以河北雾灵山国家级自然保护区为研究对象,基于2020年二类调查数据,利用ArcGIS软件,对该区域的土地利用、权属状况、有林地资源、无林地资源现状进行分析。结果表明:保护区有林地占主要优势,有林地以天然次生林为主;国有土地占比高,林地权属和林木权属清晰;有林地地类面积占比表现为乔木林>灌木林>辅林地>疏林地,森林覆盖率高;乔木林优势树种明显,一般有1~2个优势树种组成,且正处于生长期,林木资源发展空间很大;无林地主要地类类型为裸岩,具有重要的科研价值。通过分析,提出了保护区可持续发展的建议。

Spatial disparities of regional forest land change based on ESDA and GIS at the county level in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area

Forest land is the essential and important natural resource that provides strong support for human survival and development. Research on forest land changes at the county level about its characteristics, rules, and spatial patterns is, therefore, important for regional resource protection and the sustainable development of the social economy. In this study we selected the GIS and Geoda software package to explore the spatial disparities of forest land changes at the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area county level, based on the global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses of exploratory spatial data. The results show that： 1） during 1985-2000, the global spatial autocorrelation of forest land change is significant in the study area. The global Moran＇s I value is 0.3122 for the entire time period and indicates significant positive spatial correlation （p 〈 0.05）. Moran＇s I value of forest land change decreases from 0.3084 at the time stage I to 0.3024 at the time stage II; 2） the spatial clustering characteristics of forest land changes appear on the whole in Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei area. Moran＇s 1 value decreases from the time stage I to time stage II, which means that trend of spatial clustering of forest land change is weakened in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area; 3） the grid map of the local Moran＇s I for each county reflects local spatial homo- geneity of forest land change, which means that spatial clustering about regions of high value and low value is especially significant. The regions with ＂High-High＂ correlation are mainly located in the north hilly area. However, the regions with ＂Low-Low＂ correlation were distributed in the middle of the study area. Therefore, protection strategies and concrete measures should be put in place for each regional cluster in the study area.

我国重点国有林区林地面积变化及趋势分析——基于黑龙江森工林区的实证研究

【目的】探寻黑龙江省森工林区1981—2010年林地面积增减变化的规律和特点,并对有林地面积和单位面积蓄积量的未来发展趋势进行预测,以期为相关管理政策的制定提供借鉴和依据。【方法】采用林业用地面积、有林地面积、疏林地面积、无林地面积、未成林地面积、非林业用地面积、天然林面积、人工林面积、林地利用率、林地生产力等指标反映林地面积变化,选取1990—2010年每隔5年的清查数据为原始数据,利用灰色理论GM(1,1)模型,并借助MATLAB计算软件对2025年的单位面积蓄积量和有林地面积进行预测。【结果】1)1981—2010年30年间黑龙江省森工林区经营总面积和林业用地面积呈现双下降的趋势,林区被非法侵占林地数量巨大;2)黑龙江省森工林区有林地面积总体呈上升趋势,从1990年的686.75万hm2增加到2010年的804.45万hm2,增加率为17.14%;3)有林地面积在第2次森林资源复查时达到最低点之后快速上升,在第4次复查之后趋于平稳,反映出国家积极林业政策的作用正在逐渐显现;4)30年间疏林地、未成林地、无林地面积大幅度减少,林地利用率从第1次森林资源复查时为73%上升到第8次森林资源复查时的96%,30年间黑龙江省森工林区林地利用率共上升23个百分点;5)林地利用率在第2次森林资源复查时最低,之后呈现快速上升、趋于平缓的趋势;林地利用率的提高比较显著,然而,衡量林地生产力的重要指标——乔木林单位面积蓄积量却从第1次森林资源复查时的116.52 m3·hm-2下降到第5次森林资源复查时的77.5 m3·hm-2,减少率为33%,直到在第5次森林资源复查后才开始缓慢上升;6)林地生产力与其他各项指标相比具有滞后性,在第5次森林资源复查时达到最低点;7)预测2025年单位面积蓄积量将达到106.99 m3·hm-2,有林地面积将达到831.41万hm2。【结论】违法占用林地和擅自改变林地用途行为得尚未得到根本性杜绝,林业用地转为其他用途的压力不容小视,林权林地管理制度还需进一步完善;森林资源一旦遭受破坏,即使实施天然林保护工程等保护森林资源的各项政策,恢复期也是漫长的过程,由此也反映出林地资源管理重在保护、防患于未然。

DEM在林地资源表面积调查中的应用

以南京市为例,借助于G IS软件,首先利用由矢量化等高线生成的DEM数据自动提取坡度信息,然后计算坡度的正割值信息再与南京市的林地栅格数据结合,完成了本区内几种林地在不同坡度级上表面积大小的统计.最后与由坡度信息和土地利用类型栅格数据结合求算的投影面积作比较分析,得出DEM的研制可为林地资源更为精确的统计提供有利的技术支持.

退耕还林工程:生态恢复与收入增长

本文基于1997年和2002年的村级调查数据,在一个相对统一的框架下,利用双差分倾向得分匹配法识别出退耕还林工程对我国生态恢复和农户收入增长的因果处置效应。研究表明,该工程显著增加了参与村庄的人均林地面积,对生态建设起到了积极作用,但并未对农户纯收入产生明显影响。仅对现有的退耕还林工程设计进行完善不会提高其对农户增收的影响,但是通过在工程设计中减少资金和劳动力的配套要求、由上级政府统筹工程的执行以及加大工程的投资额会进一步增加人均林地面积,在更大程度上改善工程参与村庄的生态环境。

黑龙江省森工林区林业用地面积变化及驱动因素分析

【目的】林区林业用地的大量流失已成为制约林区森林资源可持续发展的瓶颈。通过林地变化数据分析,以期找出林区林业用地面积变化的主要驱动因素及各因素对林业用地面积变化的影响程度,为相关决策部门提供借鉴和依据。【方法】选取黑龙江省森工林区1986—2013年林地利用数据和同期社会经济影响因素各项指标数据,在定性分析基础上,从经济、社会和政策因素3方面选取12项指标,以2002年之后的统计口径为标准,对1994—2002年的相应数据进行调整,应用SPSS18软件建立多元线性回归模型并对模型进行检验。【结果】经过计算,得到黑龙江省森工林区林业用地面积影响因素模型:Y=900.565-11.082D1-53.463X6,R^2=0.867,F=81.421,模型通过检验。森工林区林业产业总产值、在岗职工年平均工资、第一产业所占比重、第三产业所占比重、多种经营总产值占林业产业总产值的比重、林业固定资产投资、年末林业人口数、工人发生工伤事故人数与林业用地面积变化显著相关。1998年天保工程政策和多种经营总产值所占比重对林业用地面积变化影响最为显著。1998年天保工程政策变量符号为负,表明天保工程的实施对森工林区林业用地面积的减少起到显著的促进作用;森工林区多种经营总产值所占比重每提高1个百分点,林业用地面积减少0.53万hm^2。【结论】在多种经营过程中,应注意保护林地资源,实现林地资源的可持续利用。

河北省林地面积变化过程分析

河北省林地面积呈现了明显的阶段性变化特征,这与经济发展之间存在着密切的联系。以经济发展阶段理论为理论基础,深入分析了河北省处于不同经济发展阶段时导致林地面积增加和减少的不同原因,总结了经济发展与林地面积变化之间的规律性,在此基础之上预测了今后河北省林地面积的变化趋势:林地面积将逐渐增加。

子午岭林区土壤侵蚀与生态环境关系的研究内容和方法

围绕子午岭天然次生林区土壤侵蚀与生态环境演变关系的研究主题,着重讨论研究背景,研究内容和研究方法。以典型调查和定位观测相结合,分析研究植被的破坏与恢复对土壤侵蚀的影响。通过建立大型径流场,动态监测不同地形部位林地与开垦地的土壤侵蚀演变过程,包括降雨、径流、入渗和侵蚀量的变化,细沟侵蚀和浅沟侵蚀的演变,土壤侵蚀与土壤退化的演变,坡、沟侵蚀的演变;同时结合进行野外人工降雨试验,林地和开垦地小气候对比观测等。初步建立了一整套宏观与微观相结合的研究体系,在黄土高原残留林区建立了土壤侵蚀与生态环境观测站,填补了国内空白。

子午岭林区林地和开垦地土壤侵蚀特征研究

利用大型坡面径流场和小流域的观测资料研究了子午岭林区林地开垦前后土壤侵蚀特征,其结果为林地土壤侵蚀很轻微,侵蚀强度小于15t/(km^2·a),径流模数小于2400m^3/(km^2·a)。地形和降雨特征对土壤侵蚀的影响不甚明显,植被和土壤成为影响土壤侵蚀的决定性因子。而当林地被开垦后,土壤侵蚀由自然植被覆盖下的自然侵蚀转变为人为加速侵蚀,侵蚀模数达1000t/(km^2·a)以上,径流模数在27480m^3/(km^2·a)以上。降雨和地形特征对土壤侵蚀的影响非常明显。土壤加速侵蚀量与10min 或15min 最大雨强(Ⅰ_(10)或Ⅰ_(15))的关系最为密切,坡面汇流增加,谷坡侵蚀产沙系数为27.7%。