Coupling and Long-term Change Characteristics of Forest Carbon Sink and Forestry Economic Development in China

[Objectives]To analyze the changes in of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,provide reference for relevant management decisions,ecological governance and resource and environment management,and promote the development of green low-carbon economy in China.[Methods]Based on the data of six forest resource inventories from 1989 to 2018 and related studies,the comprehensive evaluation model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,the coupling degree model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,and the coupling coordination degree model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development were adopted.The coupling degree of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development from 1992 to 2018 was analyzed.Stepwise regression and ARIMA model were used to analyze the influencing factors and lagging characteristics of forest carbon sink.The coupling degree between forest carbon sink and forestry economic development in China from 2019 to 2030 was predicted by autoregression and ADF test.The coupling between forest carbon sink and forestry economic development in China and its long-term change characteristics were also discussed in this study.[Results](i)The investment of ecological construction and protection,the actual investment of forestry key ecological projects,GDP and the import of forest products had a significant impact on forest resources carbon stock.The total output value of forestry industry,the actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects and the export volume of forest products had a significant impact on the forest carbon sink,and the actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects has the greatest impact on the two.(ii)The impact of actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects had a lag of 2 years on the forest resources carbon stock and a lag of 1 year on the forest carbon sink.When investing in forest carbon sink,it is necessary to make a good plan in advance,and do a good job in forest resources management and time optimization.(iii)From 1992 to 2018,the coupling degree of forest resources carbon stock,forest carbon sink and long-term development of forestry economy in China was gradually increasing.Although there were some fluctuations in the middle time,the coupling degree of forest resources carbon stock and the long-term development of forestry economy increased by 9.24%annually,and the degree of coupling coordination increased from"serious imbalance"in 1992 to"high-quality coordination"in 2018.From 1993 to 2018,the coupling degree of forest carbon sink and long-term development of forestry economy increased by 9.63%annually,slightly faster than the coupling coordination degree of forest resources carbon stock and long-term development of forestry economy.The coordination level also rose from level 2 in 1993 to level 10 in 2018.(iv)The prediction shows that the coupling coordination degree of forest resources carbon stock,forest carbon sink and the long-term development of forestry economy would increase from 2019 to 2030.The coupling coordination degree(D)values of both were close to 1,the coordination level was also 10 for a long time,and the degree of coupling coordination was also maintained at the"high-quality coordination"level for a long time.[Conclusions]Forest has multiple benefits of society,economy and ecology,and forest carbon sink is only a benefit output.The long-term coupling analysis of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development is a key point to multiple benefit analysis.The analysis shows that the spillover effect and co-evolution effect of forest carbon sink in China are significant.From 1992 to 2018,the coupling coordination degree of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development was gradually rising.The prediction analysis also indicate that the coupling coordination degree between the forest carbon sink and the long-term development of forestry economy will remain at the level of"high-quality coordination"for a long time from 2019 to 2030.Therefore,improving the level of forest management and maintaining the current trend of increasing forest resources are the key to achieving the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in China.

中国省域林业“生态-经济”系统韧性水平及空间格局演变研究

基于2011—2021年中国31个省份的省级样本数据,采用模糊物元模型、CRITIC客观赋权法和莫兰指数实证分析林业“生态-经济”系统韧性水平及空间格局演变,并进一步采用障碍度模型对阻碍林业“生态-经济”系统韧性发展的因素进行分析。结果表明:中国整体林业“生态-经济”系统韧性水平偏低,呈不断波动、缓慢发展状态;空间上,中国林业“生态-经济”系统韧性具有显著空间正相关性,随着时间推移,集聚程度有所降低,但并不显著,呈现出相对稳定地“南高-北低”空间格局;在障碍因子诊断中发现,生态敏感性、资源压力、社会压力、产业结构是阻碍林业“生态-经济”系统韧性发展的主要因素。据此,建议从提高森林供给能力、持续优化林业产业结构、坚持生态保护与建设等三方面提高林业“生态-经济”系统韧性。

Economic dependence of rural people on homestead forestry in Mymensingh, Bangladesh

Homestead forests contribute substantially to the rural econ- omy of Bangladesh. Rural people depend on trees and plants for their energy usage, housing, food and other forms of subsistence livelihood. In order to identify the potential role of forests on homestead dwellers, an empirical field investigation was conducted in the four Upazilas of My- mensingh district of Bangladesh. It was found that land holdings of the respondents within the four sites are the highest in Mymensingh. The study made an important observation that among all homestead vegeta- tion between 5-6 years old, tree species are generally preferred over plants. This is perhaps due to the efforts of the social forestry extension service to demonstrate that planting trees is an important long-term in- vestment. In all four Upazilas, there was a significant correlation between household annual income and homestead forestry, agriculture and fisher- ies practice, suggesting that higher income families tend to have larger holdings of homesteads, farms and pond areas. Three Upazilas displayed a strong positive relationship （nearly 45%） between homestead forest areas and annual family income; however, the Fulbaria Upazila showed a very poor relationship （0.2%） in this regard. The results of this study suggest that homestead forests play a positive role in the rural economy, in addition to helping mitigate the increasing problem of deforestation in Bangladesh.

《Forest Policy and Economics》刊发中国林业经济论文追溯分析

以国际权威期刊《Forest Policy and Economics》为例,选取其2007—2017年刊发的与中国林业经济问题相关的文献,从国际视角对中国林业经济问题进行梳理与总结。基于统计分析,刊发的文献总体呈现数量波动增长、内容多样化、合作形式国际化,研究区域具体化,定量分析为主等特点。从林产品贸易、森林资源经营管理、森林转型等主题展开对中国林业经济研究的论述,以期为我国相关学者全面把握中国林业经济前沿研究进展和发展趋势提供参考与借鉴。

Influencing factors of forestry economic growth in Guangdong province

Based on the data of Guangdong Rural Statistical Yearbooks(2011-2018)and Guangdong statistical yearbook(2011-2018),the grey correlation analysis method was used to analyze the factors influencing the growth of forestry economy in Guangdong province.The results show that the correlation of GDP and forestry economic growth,the correlation of afforestation area and forestry economic growth,the correlation of sunshine hours and forestry economic growth,the correlation of population density and forestry economic growth,the correlation of forest coverage rate and forestry economic growth,the correlation of annual average temperature and forestry economic growth,the correlation of average annual rainfall and forestry economic growth,the correlation of the number of forestry workers and the growth of forestry economy,the correlation of total forestry investment and forestry economic growth,are gradually decreased.

An Algorithm of 0-1 Knapsack Problem Based on Economic Model

In order to optimize the knapsack problem further, this paper proposes an innovative model based on dynamic expectation efficiency, and establishes a new optimization algorithm of 0-1 knapsack problem after analysis and research. Through analyzing the study of 30 groups of 0-1 knapsack problem from discrete coefficient of the data, we can find that dynamic expectation model can solve the following two types of knapsack problem. Compared to artificial glowworm swam algorithm, the convergence speed of this algorithm is ten times as fast as that of artificial glowworm swam algorithm, and the storage space of this algorithm is one quarter that of artificial glowworm swam algorithm. To sum up, it can be widely used in practical problems.

Net Present Value Method: A Method Recommended by ISO 15686-5 for Economic Evaluation of Building Life Cycle Costs

The publication of ISO 15686-5 is significant for studies related to the life-cycle costs of buildings. Among the many economic evaluation methods, the NPV method is recommended for use by this standard. This study explains the concept and method of PV, and then provides an explanation of the concept and method of NPV, and points out the limitations in the practical application of the method.

Modelling Financially Optimal Afforestation and Forest Management Scenarios Using a Bio-Economic Model

The expansion of non-industrial private forests (NIPF) in Ireland is unique in the European context in which the almost doubling of forest cover within the last thirty years has taken place largely on farmland. This is not surprising as Ireland has some of the highest growth rates for conifers in Europe and also has a large proportion of land which is marginal for agriculture but highly productive under forests. However, in recent years, afforestation in Ireland as in many European countries has fallen well short of policy targets. As the farm afforestation decision essentially involves an inter-temporal land use change, farmers need comprehensive information on forest market returns under different environmental conditions and forest management regimes. This paper describes the systematic development of a cohort forest bio-economic model which examines financially optimal afforestation and management choices. Simulating a range of productivity and harvesting scenarios for Sitka spruce, we find that different objectives result in different outcomes. We see substantial differences between the biologically optimal rotation, the reduced rotation in common usage and the financially optimal rotation which maximises net present value and find that the results are particularly sensitive to the choice of management and methodological assumptions. Specifically, we find that better site productivity and thin versus no-thin options result in shorter rotations across all optimisations, reinforcing the usefulness of this type of financial modelling approach. This information is critical for future policy design to further incentivise afforestation of agricultural land.

Contribution of Garcinia kola to the Productivity and Economic Profitability of the Community Agricultural Area of Kedougou: Financial and Comparative Analysis of Production Factors

Inland fishing predominates in the Kedougou region, which has no coastline. This type of fishing does not yet meet the local population’s demand for fish products. In response to this concern, a Community Agricultural Estate housing an integrated fish farm was set up in the commune of Bandafassi, in the village of Itato. Since its creation, this production unit has been faced with the problem of sourcing high-quality, low-cost, monosex male Oreochromis niloticus fry. In order to overcome this constraint, the present research focuses on the contribution of Garcinia kola to the productivity and economic profitability of the Itato farm. The aim of the research is to assess fish production in the experimental set-up and the production costs of tilapia in a controlled environment. The comparative study of the various production factors shows disparities only in the input factor, where scenarios 2 and 3 use additional products. These are 17-α-methytestosterone for scenario 2 and Garcinia kola for scenario 3. These products significantly interfere with fish production, with a fairly high mortality rate for scenario 2 (25% for two production cycles/ cohort2 (B5, B6, B7 and B8) treated with 17-α-methytestosterone). As for scenarios 1 and 3, mortalities are 5% with or without recourse to additional products (G. kola). In addition, average fish production for the three (03) scenarios is estimated at 28687.5 kg/2 cycles. It varies from one scenario to another, i.e. 30937.5 kg/2 cycles for scenarios 1 and 3 and 24187.5 kg/2 cycles for scenario 2. It is therefore higher in scenarios 1 and 3 than in scenario 2. This difference is due to the fairly large losses of individuals in scenario 2. Furthermore, the analysis of the profit and loss accounts for tilapia production varies from one scenario to another depending on the type of farm: 476 Franc CFA for scenario 1, 610 Franc CFA for scenario 2 and 472 Franc CFA for scenario 3 (F CFA = franc of the French Colonies of Africa). The Average operating income for all the fish farming units is 34,726,142 Franc CFA. The highest (41,638,075 Franc CFA) and lowest (29,281,075 Franc CFA) ERs were observed in scenarios 3 and 2 respectively. It was 33,259,275 Franc CFA for scenario 1. The difference between the NERs of the three scenarios is more or less significant in terms of results. The operating result (OR) is positive in all 3 scenarios in our study. However, the scenario 3 system generates a higher rate of return (the ratio between an income and the capital employed to obtain that income) (74%) than that generated by the scenario 1 system (69%). As for the scenario 2 system, it generates a lower financial return than the two previous systems (67%). Above all, this work made it possible to construct an approach that would make it possible to answer such a question by relying successively on various methods: a typology, according to the production factors involved in the operation of the Community Agricultural Estate fish farm.

林业标准化实施对林业经济增长的影响分析——基于C-D生产函数

在浙江省45个林业标准化项目实施的统计数据的基础上,运用广义的C-D生产函数模型,实证分析了林业标准化实施对林业经济增长所产生的影响。结果表明:林业标准化的实施对林业产出具有显著的正向影响,从林业标准适用范围和实施强度两个角度测算出林业标准化的实施对林业经济增长贡献率分别为19.98%和20.80%,表明林业标准化的推广实施对林业经济增长具有明显的促进作用。故,建议加强林业标准的制修订,建立健全林业标准体系;增加林业标准化实施示范项目,促进林农增收;完善林业标准化服务体系,加快林业经济发展。

基于ISM的区域林业“社会-经济-环境”协调发展因素及策略分析

采用系统工程的方法 ,对区域林业社会、经济、环境如何实现协调发展进行了科学分析,重点探讨了影响区域林业协调发展的相关因素,通过数学方法建立ISM模型,划分区域林业协调发展的管理层次,并针对每个管理层次进行策略分析。

集体林权改革下的林业经济增长因素分析--以辽宁省为例

根据1982～2008年辽宁省林业经济发展的相关数据,采用C-D生产函数模型,实证分析了林业投资、劳动力、林业科技进步、产权制度等要素对辽宁省林业经济增长的影响。结果表明,集体林改下辽宁省林业经济整体呈快速上升趋势,27年间资本、劳动力、科技进步的产出弹性分别为0.4,0.55,0.06,对经济增长的贡献率分别为37.7%,19.15%和43.15%,林改作为政策制度因素对于林业经济增长具有正向的推动作用。

华北农牧交错带退耕区榆树幼林-南瓜间作的农田生态效应

【目的】针对华北农牧交错区退耕林地大面积荒芜资源无效流失的问题,通过榆树幼林-南瓜带状间作,达到林地高效利用与生态-经济效益协同增进的目的。【方法】采用田间试验和室内理化分析相结合的方法。【结果】榆树幼林与南瓜间作后,瓜蔓覆盖地面,显著提高了南瓜行间和榆树林地的土壤水分含量,林-瓜间作地水分的利用效率较单作提高了23.7%～163.3%;间作改变了南瓜行间杂草群落自然演替的方向,一年生杂草成为优势物种,其饲用营养物质的含量和产量较林带间杂草显著提高。间作比单作南瓜增产24.4%,榆树生物量累积提高28.4%,杂草增产144.4%,南瓜的经济效益也提高了23.2%。林-瓜间作比单作土地利用效率提高了132%。监测表明,榆树幼林-南瓜间作地的土壤输沙量与南瓜单作地、退耕榆林地间的差异均不显著,没有因南瓜地的土壤耕作而提高土壤的风蚀量。【结论】华北农牧交错带退耕区榆树幼林-南瓜带状间作是区域生态-经济效益兼顾、综合利用林地资源的有效技术模式。

玛纳斯河流域绿洲林业生产的新变化--开发水土资源发展林业生产

随着社会经济发展、现代生产技术的广泛应用及新的土地承包、林业政策法规的贯彻,玛纳斯河流域(全疆)绿洲在20世纪607、0年代建立的农田防护林体系,需要在思想观念及生产技术等方面有相应的变化,建立新的防护林体系,适应新农村建设。开发新的水土资源,提高水土资源的利用效率,挖掘水土潜力发展现代林业生产;将生态效益与经济、社会效益结合,不同地区又有所侧重,是建立新防护林体系的共同特点,充分体现出现代绿洲林业及现代农业的共同要求。有利于促进农业现代化发展、新农村建设及荒漠化生态系统的恢复、重建。

TP-CDIO理念下《林业政策学》课程教学改革研究

基于《林业政策学》课程教学实例,在充分融入理论素养和政策认知两项基本要求和教学目标的前提下,深入探索农林经济管理类课程如何有效应用和实践TP-CDIO理念的基本过程和方式。在充分解构TP-CDIO理念内涵的基础上,分别从重构课程目标、教学方法革新、增设政策实训模块三个方面具体阐述TP-CDIO理念下《林业政策学》课程在具体教学过程中的改革创新模块设计,有益于改善《林业政策学》课程教学水平及促进学生综合能力养成,也为新农科建设在教育教学理念创新及方法改革等领域提供启发和思考。

“四新”背景下农林经济管理专业政产学研协同育人机制建设研究--以石河子大学为例

在“四新”建设背景下,推进农林经济管理专业政产学研协同育人机制建设,有助于提升人才培养能力、培养质量和就业水平。以石河子大学为例,在分析农林经济管理专业政产学研协同育人机制建设现状与问题基础上,从推进制度与平台建设、课程体系建设、多元主体参与下人才分类培养创新、师资队伍建设、人才培养质量多元评价与反馈机制构建等方面提出政产学研协同育人机制建设的重点内容,以及在建设中要突显的特色。

一流课程建设融入思政育人的教学改革路径研究--以《林业经济学》为例

思政育人是当前我国高等教育事业高质量发展的重要内容之一,如何在一流课程建设的高标准、高要求下将传统课堂打造为知识传递与思想碰撞的新平台,是当下推进一流课程建设提档升级的重要工作。在充分阐释一流课程融入思政育人理论逻辑的基础上,归纳二者深入融合嵌入的现实意义,并以《林业经济学》一流课程为例,总结其在开展一流课程建设的不同环节如何有效融入思政内涵的实践做法,并对实践成效和经验启发进行了提炼。最后,提出了一流课程建设要优化教学大纲、建立思政教学案例库及改建课程教学模式、完善教学评价机制等融入思政育人的教学改革创新路径。

物物相关,民生为本-翟中齐先生的学术思想介绍

翟中齐先生是林业经济管理界的前辈,他在林业区划和森林生态经济等领域有很高的造诣。尤其是他求真务实,勤奋好学,强调区域性林产工业结构与布局、林业多种经营与综合发展、森林资源的合理布局与区划等理论,在今天仍有重要的指导意义。从翟中齐先生的学术品质、学术贡献和学术思想等方面,系统总结了他的学术思想,以勉励后人,传承学习,并从他的学术经历和思想中体会他谦虚谨慎、追求真理的品质,也为学术的传承和学科的发展贡献力量。