基于logistics回归模型的山洪泥石流风险评估

山洪泥石流作为一种常见的自然灾害,其突发性和破坏性给人类社会的生产生活带来了巨大的威胁。在全球气候变暖的背景下,山洪泥石流的发生频率和破坏力呈现增加趋势。通过采用有序logistics回归模型,对四川省北川羌族自治县地区山洪泥石流危险性进行了定量化评估,选取流域切割密度、流域相对高差、主沟长度、50年一遇泥石流规模等多个关键因素,构建了logistics回归模型进行危险性评估。根据模型结果发现,主沟长度和50年一遇规模的影响最为显著。本文不仅对山洪泥石流风险进行了较为精确的定量化评估,同时也为防治措施的制定提供了科学依据。

普外科术中低体温发生情况Logistics回归分析及预测模型构建

目的探讨普外科术中低体温发生的风险因素,构建并验证术中低体温发生的风险预测模型。方法选取2020年12月至2022年12月在本院接受普外科手术的117例患者作为观察对象。收集患者临床资料,根据患者术中是否发生低体温将其分为发生低体温组(A组)和未发生低体温组(B组)。Logistic回归分析影响患者普外科术中发生低体温的危险因素,并建立风险预测模型,受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)检测该模型的预测效能。结果117例患者中发生低体温31例(26.49%),未发生低体温86例(73.50%)。两组患者在年龄、体重指数、手术方式、ASA分级、术中输液量、手术室温、手术时间等方面比较,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄≥65岁、术中输液量≥1000 mL、麻醉时间≥4 h、手术室温<23℃是普外科术中发生低体温的危险因素(P<0.05)。独立危险因素纳入Logistic回归分析并建立预测模型,模型预测概率P=1/[1+e(-1.020+0.874)×(年龄)+1.114×(术中输液量)+1.556×(手术室温)+1.453×(麻醉时间)]。ROC曲线检验该模型预测效能,结果显示ROC曲线下面积(AUC)=0.754(P<0.05);Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验显示,χ^(2)=1.001,P=0.998。结论患者年龄、术中输液量、麻醉时间、手术室温是普外科患者术中发生低体温的独立危险因素,Logistic风险预测模型拟合效度好,具有较高预测价值。

Using Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Location Problem of Drone Logistics Hub

Drone logistics is a novel method of distribution that will become prevalent.The advantageous location of the logistics hub enables quicker customer deliveries and lower fuel consumption,resulting in cost savings for the company’s transportation operations.Logistics firms must discern the ideal location for establishing a logistics hub,which is challenging due to the simplicity of existing models and the intricate delivery factors.To simulate the drone logistics environment,this study presents a new mathematical model.The model not only retains the aspects of the current models,but also considers the degree of transportation difficulty from the logistics hub to the village,the capacity of drones for transportation,and the distribution of logistics hub locations.Moreover,this paper proposes an improved particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm which is a diversity-based hybrid PSO(DHPSO)algorithm to solve this model.In DHPSO,the Gaussian random walk can enhance global search in the model space,while the bubble-net attacking strategy can speed convergence.Besides,Archimedes spiral strategy is employed to overcome the local optima trap in the model and improve the exploitation of the algorithm.DHPSO maintains a balance between exploration and exploitation while better defining the distribution of logistics hub locations Numerical experiments show that the newly proposed model always achieves better locations than the current model.Comparing DHPSO with other state-of-the-art intelligent algorithms,the efficiency of the scheme can be improved by 42.58%.This means that logistics companies can reduce distribution costs and consumers can enjoy a more enjoyable shopping experience by using DHPSO’s location selection.All the results show the location of the drone logistics hub is solved by DHPSO effectively.

A Proposed Feature Selection Particle Swarm Optimization Adaptation for Intelligent Logistics--A Supply Chain Backlog Elimination Framework

The diversity of data sources resulted in seeking effective manipulation and dissemination.The challenge that arises from the increasing dimensionality has a negative effect on the computation performance,efficiency,and stability of computing.One of the most successful optimization algorithms is Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO)which has proved its effectiveness in exploring the highest influencing features in the search space based on its fast convergence and the ability to utilize a small set of parameters in the search task.This research proposes an effective enhancement of PSO that tackles the challenge of randomness search which directly enhances PSO performance.On the other hand,this research proposes a generic intelligent framework for early prediction of orders delay and eliminate orders backlogs which could be considered as an efficient potential solution for raising the supply chain performance.The proposed adapted algorithm has been applied to a supply chain dataset which minimized the features set from twenty-one features to ten significant features.To confirm the proposed algorithm results,the updated data has been examined by eight of the well-known classification algorithms which reached a minimum accuracy percentage equal to 94.3%for random forest and a maximum of 99.0 for Naïve Bayes.Moreover,the proposed algorithm adaptation has been compared with other proposed adaptations of PSO from the literature over different datasets.The proposed PSO adaptation reached a higher accuracy compared with the literature ranging from 97.8 to 99.36 which also proved the advancement of the current research.

ISO/TC 344 on innovative logistics set up in Qingdao

The 2024 International Standardization Conference on Logistics,the first of its kind in China,was held by China Federation of Logistics&Purchasing(CFLP)on May 29 in Qingdao,Shandong province,where ISO/TC 344,Innovative logistics,was officially set up.ISO President Sung Hwan Cho sent a congratulatory message via video.He Liming,Chair of CFLP,Zhao Shengcun,Deputy Mayor of Qingdao,officers from Standards Innovative Management Department of SAMR,and relevant leaders attended and addressed the meeting.Over 400 attendees participated in the conference,including representatives from the ISO Central Secretariat,members of ISO/TC 344,members of Asia-Pacific Logistics Federation(APLF),and representatives from national departments,industrial associations,research institutions,and logistics enterprises.ISO/TC 344 is responsible for the standardization of services,technological application,and management in the field of logistics.Its secretariat is held by China,the domestic counterpart of which is CFLP.

The heterogeneous impact of China-Europe railway express on the efficiency of logistics industry in node cities

Purpose-The spatiotemporal compression effect of China-Europe Railway Express(CR-Express)can reduce the filow costs of resources between China's node cities.Additionally,it can break through the limitations of low-added-value marine products,significantly impacting the logistics industry efficiency.However,there are few literature verifying and analyzing its heterogeneity.This study explores the impact of CR-Express on the efficiency of logistics industry in node cities and analyzes the heterogeneity.Design/methodology/approach-First,this study uses panel data to measure the efficiency of node city logistics industry.Secondiy,this study discusses the impact of the opening of CR-Express on the efficiency of logistics industry in node cities based on the multi-period differential model.Finally,according to the node city difference,the sample city experimental group is grouped for heterogeneity analysis.Findings-The results show that CR-Express can promote the urban logistics industry efficiency,with an average effect of 4.55%.According to the urban characteristics classification,the heterogeneity analysis shows that the efficiency improvement effect of logistics industry in inland cities is more obvious.The improvement effect of node cities and central cities in central and western China is stronger,especially in the sample of megacities and type I big cities.Compared with non-value chain industrial products,the CR-Express has significant promotion effects on the logistics efficiency of the cities where main goods are value chain products.Originality/value-Under the background of double cycle development,this paper can provide a scientific basis for the investment benefit evaluation of CR-Express construction and the follow-up route planning.

基于文本挖掘和二元Logistics回归的生物医药行业上市公司财务预警研究

本研究论文主要探讨了基于文本挖掘和二元logistics回归的生物医药行业上市公司财务预警研究。通过分析生物医药行业上市公司的财务数据和管理层讨论与分析(MD&A)文本,利用二元logistics回归模型和文本挖掘技术,研究构建了一套财务预警模型,以预测企业是否可能发生财务危机。研究选取了现金比率、现金流量负债比率、资产负债率、净资产收益率、营业毛利率、息税前营业利润率、总资产增长率、营业收入增长率、资本保值增率、每股经营活动产生的净流量增长率等财务指标,以及基于MD&A文本信息构建的语调指标作为模型的关键预警指标。这些指标涵盖了企业的多个财务维度,旨在全面评估公司的财务健康状况。模型在非ST公司的判断准确率达到了87.50%,在ST公司的判断准确率为80.00%,整体准确率为85.29%,显示了该模型对于早期识别财务风险具有一定的有效性。

Research on Smart Logistics Development Based on Blockchain Technology

Blockchain technology has been incorporated into the field of next-generation information infrastructure in China and is experiencing rapid development.Utilizing blockchain and other emerging technologies to develop intelligent logistics is essential for logistics enterprises to reduce costs,enhance efficiency,and improve quality.By analyzing and summarizing the issues within the development of China’s logistics industry,this paper discusses its growth from three perspectives:policy,technology,and industry.

Automobile Transportation Logistics Supply Chain Management Strategy

To enhance the management level and quality of the automobile transportation logistics supply chain and promote innovation and development in automobile transportation logistics enterprises,it is essential to strengthen the construction of the automobile transportation logistics supply chain management model.This can be achieved through the gradual improvement of the automobile transportation logistics management process,ensuring that the management of the automobile transportation logistics supply chain proceeds in an orderly manner.The aim is to improve automobile transportation and logistics service levels while meeting the changing market supply needs.This will enable automobile transportation and logistics enterprises to maintain steady economic benefits and enhance their core competitiveness in the market.Therefore,this paper has conducted a comprehensive exploration and research on managing the automobile transportation logistics supply chain.Corresponding management strategies are proposed as a starting point to achieve the aforementioned goals.

基于逐步Logistics回归的高铁列车上座率影响因素分析

分析高铁列车上座率的影响因素,对于优化列车运行方案及提高铁路公司经济效益均具有重要意义。以京沪高铁2015年11月份的上座率数据为例,构建了基于逐步Logistics回归的高铁列车上座率影响因素分析框架;运用逐步回归策略筛选出对列车上座率有显著影响的因素;再应用Logistic回归模型分析了列车上座率与其影响因素之间的定量关系;最后分别采用Wald统计量和HL指标检验回归系数的显著性和模型的拟合优度。研究结果表明:列车跨线与否、列车类型、列车始发时间、列车终到时间和票价是影响影响京沪高铁列车上座率的主要因素。

影响结核性胸腔积液并发胸膜增厚的非条件Logistic回归分析

目的探讨影响结核性胸腔积液并发胸膜增厚的相关危险因素。方法回顾性分析2019年1月至2021年3月广州市胸科医院呼吸内科收治的123例结核性胸腔积液患者的临床资料,统计患者胸膜增厚情况,采用单因素及非条件Logistic回归法分析患者胸膜增厚的影响因素。结果胸膜未增厚与胸膜增厚患者性别、年龄、肺结核、胸水分布、用力肺活量(FVC)、第1秒用力呼气容积(FVE1)/FVC、胸水腺苷脱氨酶(ADA)、血清ADA、胸水白细胞、胸水淋巴细胞、胸水中性粒细胞和淋巴细胞比例比较差异无统计学意义;胸膜未增厚与胸膜增厚患者胸水量、胸水吸收时间、FVE1、胸水乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)、血清LDH、胸水蛋白、血清蛋白比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。Logistic回归分析结果显示,胸水量(中大量)、FVE1、胸水LDH、血清LDH、胸水蛋白及血清蛋白是胸膜增厚发生的危险因素(P<0.05)。结论结核性胸腔积液并发胸膜增厚是多因素作用的结果,胸水量、FVE1、胸水吸收时间、胸水LDH、血清LDH、胸水蛋白和血清蛋白与胸膜增厚的发生密切相关,建议临床予以密切监测并积极采取针对性干预措施。

卵圆孔未闭合并偏头痛患者头痛程度影响因素的logistic回归分析

目的分析卵圆孔未闭(PFO)合并偏头痛患者头痛程度影响因素的logistic回归分析。方法选取2022年1—12月商丘市第一人民医院就诊的100例PFO合并偏头痛患者作为研究对象,采用视觉模拟评分法(VAS)分为轻度头痛组(58例)和中重度疼痛组(42例),采用多因素logistic回归分析影响PFO合并偏头痛患者头痛程度的因素。结果单因素分析显示,轻度头痛组和中重度疼痛组吸烟史、高血压史、睡眠质量、情绪变化、PFO右向左分流量、PFO直径、PFO隧道长度及有无房间隔膨出瘤差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。logistic多因素回归分析显示,吸烟史、高血压史、睡眠质量差、情绪变化、PFO右向左分流量大、PFO直径大、PFO隧道短及房间隔膨出瘤是影响PFO合并偏头痛患者头痛程度的影响因素(P<0.05)。结论吸烟史、高血压史、睡眠质量差、情绪变化、PFO右向左分流量大、PFO直径大、PFO隧道短及房间隔膨出瘤可影响PFO合并偏头痛患者头痛程度,临床应根据上述因素进行针对性干预,以缓解偏头痛患者头痛程度。

基于Logistic模型和SPC算法的关键技术识别与预测——以卫星互联网为例

识别关键技术有助于在制定技术和市场战略布局中获得先发优势,对我国经济发展、国家安全具有重要意义。文中提出一种融合生命周期与主路径分析的关键技术识别方法,是对已有的研究理论和方法的重要补充。首先,检索相关领域专利数据并进行技术划分;然后,综合运用Lo-gistic模型和SPC算法构建技术轨道,识别关键技术;接着,使用显性技术优势指数比较主要国家技术竞争态势;最后,结合关键技术与技术竞争态势绘制技术路线图,识别技术热点与前沿预测。以卫星互联网为例,阐述该方法的应用过程。研究结果表明,该方法能够较为准确识别出该领域关键技术,揭示全球技术竞争态势,有效实现技术热点识别和未来技术预测;识别出的卫星互联网关键技术,能够为国家发展政策制定与相关产业布局提供参考。

X线联合超声Logistic模型预测乳腺癌腋窝淋巴结转移的价值分析

目的分析与乳腺癌腋窝淋巴结转移相关的X线和超声征象,构建Logistic回归模型并评估其对术前预测腋窝淋巴结状态的临床价值。方法选取2015年1月至2022年1月高密市人民医院收治的312例原发性乳腺癌患者作为研究对象,根据是否发生腋窝淋巴结转移(ALNM)分为转移组(n=141)与未转移组(n=171)。所有患者均行X线及超声检查,比较未转移组与转移组乳腺浸润性导管癌的X线征象、超声征象,采用多因素Logistic回归分析ALNM的影响因素;绘制ROC曲线分析X线、超神征象及Logistic回归模型预测乳腺癌腋窝淋巴结转移的价值。结果两组X线原发灶长径、皮肤增厚、乳头回缩、淋巴结门和淋巴结密度比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),两组象限位置、钙化和边缘毛刺比较差异无统计学意义;两组超声原发灶长径、淋巴结皮髓质分界和淋巴结皮质比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),两组原发灶高回声晕、后场回声、血流分级和纵横比比较差异无统计学意义。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,X线征象的乳房皮肤增厚征象、超声淋巴结皮质增厚征象是乳腺浸润性导管癌患者发生ALNM的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。ROC曲线分析结果显示,X线乳房皮肤增厚征象和超声征象的淋巴结皮质增厚预测淋巴结转移的AUC分别为0.652(95%CI:0.589~0.714)、0.725(95%CI:0.666~0.784),模型预测ALNM的AUC为0.795(95%CI:0.742~0.848),预测效能较好。结论乳腺癌患者的X线皮肤增厚征象和超声腋窝淋巴结皮质增厚征象与ALNM有关,X线联合超声的Logistic模型可较准确地预测乳腺癌患者的腋窝淋巴结状态。

基于Logistic回归的国际时尚品牌销售渠道选择影响因素分析

为了帮助国际时尚品牌合理、科学地选择销售渠道和制定销售策略,以满足不同地区不同类型消费者的需求,提高品牌市场竞争力。首先依据访谈数据确定分析因子,建立影响国际时尚品牌销售渠道选择的多因素分析理论模型,提出可能影响国际品牌销售渠道选择的消费者偏好分析指标体系,从消费者个人特征、心理偏好、品类偏好以及时尚认知4个维度设计问卷并进行调研。运用SPSS软件对问卷回收数据进行录入,并采用Logistic回归分析数据,从而验证模型假设。通过分析结果可知,以上4个维度下的诸多影响因子均对国际品牌销售渠道的选择产生显著影响,并给出了具体的指导策略。品牌商可以根据研究结果制定对应的销售策略,以有效提高销售渠道利用率,最大化提升品牌销售业绩。

发生带状疱疹后神经痛的影响因素的logistic模型分析

目的了解带状疱疹后神经痛(postherpetic neuralgia,PHN)的影响因素,为针对性地防治PHN提供依据。方法于2022年1月-12月选取某院就诊的带状疱疹患者480例为研究对象,收集患者的人口学情况、临床相关内容、心理状态、饮食依从性和运动情况。采用多因素logistic模型分析PHN发生的影响因素。结果共纳入480人,单因素分析结果显示,年龄较高、皮损面积大、NRS评分高、不用激素治疗、冠心病、饮食习惯不良、缺乏体育锻炼者的PHN发生率较高(P<0.05)。多因素分析结果显示,年龄、皮损面积、激素治疗、冠心病、饮食依从性、体育锻炼是PHN的影响因素(P<0.05)。结论年龄、冠心病、疼痛程度、皮损面积、激素治疗、饮食依从性、体育锻炼影响PHN的发生,根据影响因素采用多种措施开展有针对性健康干预,从而帮助患者正确面对疾病,降低PHN的发生率,提高生活质量。

大学生“慢就业”现象及其影响因素——基于二元Logistic回归模型的实证研究

通过对32所高校调研分析发现,大学生“慢就业”现象呈现上升态势。研究表明:个人最高学历、职业规划清晰程度、就业主动性、父母对于子女选择“慢就业”的态度、是否为独生子女、家庭人均年收入、学校层次、学校就业指导服务质量等因素均显著影响大学生对于“慢就业”行为的认知与选择。为此,必须结合大学生“慢就业”行为选择的影响因素,开展“广谱式”的职业生涯规划教育、构建家校联合的就业指导机制、形成具有强针对性的就业指导体系。

影响阳虚体质因素的Logistic回归分析

目的:研究影响阳虚体质的主要因素。方法:采用横断面调查,收集上海中医药大学附属岳阳中西医结合医院治未病中心2020年9月至2021年11月中医体质调查数据。中医体质调查采用中医体质辨识软件V3.0实施,运用多因素Logistic回归模型分析筛选影响阳虚体质的主要因素。结果:共纳入811例研究对象,其中阳虚质211例(26.0%)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,相对女性,男性阳虚质比例降低,差异具有统计学意义[OR=0.55,95%CI(0.37~0.81),P=0.002];相对年龄<50岁,年龄≥50岁者阳虚质比例较高,差异具有统计学意义[OR=1.83,95%CI(1.26~2.65),P=0.001];体质量超重、肥胖人群阳虚质比例高于体质量正常及偏低人群,差异具有统计学意义[OR=0.59,95%CI(0.38~0.91),P=0.018];高脂血症患者阳虚质比例高于血脂正常人群,差异具有统计学意义[OR=0.63,95%CI(0.44~0.90),P=0.011];脂肪性肝病患者阳虚质比例高于正常人群,差异具有统计学意义[OR=0.56,95%CI(0.37~0.87),P=0.010];功能性胃肠病阳虚质比例高于正常人群,差异具有统计学意义[OR=1.77,95%CI(1.05~2.99),P=0.032]。结论:年龄、性别、超重/肥胖、功能性胃肠病、脂肪性肝病、高脂血症是影响阳虚质的主要因素。

基于Logistic回归模型分析重型颅脑损伤并发上消化道出血发生的相关影响因素及防治策略

目的:分析重型颅脑损伤(SHI)并发上消化道出血发生的相关影响因素。方法:选取2019年1月-2023年11月收治363例SHI患者为研究对象,根据是否发生上消化道出血将患者分为出血组(85例)和未出血组(278例)。收集两组临床资料,比较两组性别、年龄、抗凝治疗、抗血小板、抑酸保护胃黏膜治疗、手术治疗、早期肠内营养、激素用药剂量、既往NSAID史、D-二聚体、低氧血症、纤维蛋白原(FIB)、低蛋白血症、是否脑疝、甘油三酯(TG)、鼻饲、血清趋化素、总胆固醇(TC)、糖化血红蛋白(HbA1c)。Logistic多因素回归模型分析影响SHI并发上消化道出血的因素。结果:363例SHI患者上消化道出血发生率为23.42%(85/363),Logistic回归分析显示,无早期肠内营养、低氧血症、低蛋白血症、脑疝、FIB是SHI患者并发上消化道出血的危险因素(P<0.05)。结论:SHI患者并发上消化道出血受早期肠内营养、低氧血症、低蛋白血症、是否脑疝、FIB水平等多种因素影响,临床可针对上述因素给予有效干预措施,改善患者临床症状。

Spatial Structure of China's E-commerce Express Logistics Network Based on Space of Flows

The intermediate link compression characteristics of e-commerce express logistics ne tworks influence the tradition al mode of circulation of goods and economic organization,and alter the city spatial pattern.Based on the theory of space of flows,this study adopts China Smart Logistics Network relational data to build China's e-commerce express logistics network and explore its spatial structure characteristics through social network analysis(SNA),the PageRank technique,and geospatial methods.The results are as follows:the network density is 0.9270,which is close to 1;hence,indicating that e-commerce express logistics lines between Chinese cities are nearly complete and they form a typical network structure,thereby eliminating fragmented spaces.Moreover,the average minimum number of edges is 1.1375,which indicates that the network has a small world effect and thus has a high flow efficiency of logistics elements.A significant hierarchical diffusion effect was observed in dominant flows with the highest edge weights.A diamond-structured network was formed with Shanghai,Guangzhou,Chongqing,and Beijing as the four core nodes.Other node cities with a large logistics scale and importance in the network are mainly located in the 19 city agglomerations of China,revealing the fact that the development of city agglomerations is essential for promoting the separation of experience space and changing the urban spatial pattern.This study enriches the theory of urban networks,reveals the flow laws of modern logistics elements,and encourages coordinated development of urban logistics.