Spatiotemporal evolution and future simulation of land use/land cover in the Turpan-Hami Basin,China

The Turpan-Hami(Tuha)Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China,holds significant strategic importance as a key economic artery of the ancient Silk Road and the Belt and Road Initiative,necessitating a holistic understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of land use/land cover(LULC)to foster sustainable planning that is tailored to the region's unique resource endowments.However,existing LULC classification methods demonstrate inadequate accuracy,hindering effective regional planning.In this study,we established a two-level LULC classification system(8 primary types and 22 secondary types)for the Tuha Basin.By employing Landsat 5/7/8 imagery at 5-a intervals,we developed the LULC dataset of the Tuha Basin from 1990 to 2020,conducted the accuracy assessment and spatiotemporal evolution analysis,and simulated the future LULC under various scenarios via the Markov-Future Land Use Simulation(Markov-FLUS)model.The results revealed that the average overall accuracy values of our LULC dataset were 0.917 and 0.864 for the primary types and secondary types,respectively.Compared with the seven mainstream LULC products(GlobeLand30,Global 30-meter Land Cover with Fine Classification System(GLC_FCS30),Finer Resolution Observation and Monitoring of Global Land Cover PLUS(FROM_GLC PLUS),ESA Global Land Cover(ESA_LC),Esri Land Cover(ESRI_LC),China Multi-Period Land Use Land Cover Change Remote Sensing Monitoring Dataset(CNLUCC),and China Annual Land Cover Dataset(CLCD))in 2020,our LULC data exhibited dramatically elevated overall accuracy and provided more precise delineations for land features,thereby yielding high-quality data backups for land resource analyses within the basin.In 2020,unused land(78.0%of the study area)and grassland(18.6%)were the dominant LULC types of the basin;although cropland and construction land constituted less than 1.0%of the total area,they played a vital role in arid land development and primarily situated within oases that form the urban cores of the cities of Turpan and Hami.Between 1990 and 2020,cropland and construction land exhibited a rapid expansion,and the total area of water body decreased yet resurging after 2015 due to an increase in areas of reservoir and pond.In future scenario simulations,significant increases in areas of construction land and cropland are anticipated under the business-as-usual scenario,whereas the wetland area will decrease,suggesting the need for ecological attention under this development pathway.In contrast,the economic development scenario underscores the fast-paced expansion of construction land,primarily from the conversion of unused land,highlighting the significant developmental potential of unused land with a slowing increase in cropland.Special attention should thus be directed toward ecological and cropland protection during development.This study provides data supports and policy recommendations for the sustainable development goals of Tuha Basin and other similar arid areas.

Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model

Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.

Multi-scenario Simulation of the Impact of Land Use Change on the Ecosystem Service Value in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou Metropolitan Area,China

As the most economically developed metropolitan area in China’s Yangtze River Delta,the rapid changing land use patterns of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou(Su-Xi-Chang) metropolitan area have profound impacts on the ecosystem service value(ESV).Based on the patterns of land use change and the ESV change in Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area from 2000 to 2020,we set up four scenarios:natural development scenario,urban development scenario,arable land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario,and simulated the impact of land use changes on the ESV in these scenarios.The results showed that:1) the area of built-up land in the Su-XiChang metropolitan area increased significantly from 2000 to 2020,and the area of other types of land decreased.Arable land underwent the highest transfer-out area,and was primarily converted into built-up land.The total ESV of Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area increased initially then declined from 2000–2020,and the value of almost all individual ecosystem services decreased.2) Population density,GDP per area,night lighting intensity,and road network density can negatively impact the ESV.3) The total ESV loss under the natural development and urban development scenarios was high,and the expansion of the built-up land and the drastic shrinkage of the arable land contributed to the ESV decline under both scenarios.The total ESV under arable land protection and ecological protection scenarios increases,and therefore these scenarios are suitable for future land use optimization in Su-Xi-Chang.This study could provide a certain reference for land use planning and allocation,and offer guidance for the rational allocation of land resources.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Future Scenario Simulation of the Trade-offs and Synergies of Mountain Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Dabie Mountains Area, China

Mountain ecosystems play an essential role in supporting regional sustainable development and improving local ecological environments. However, economic development in mountainous areas has long been lagging, and multiple conflicts related to resource assurance, ecological protection, and economic development have emerged. An accurate grasp of the current status and evolutionary trends of mountain ecosystems is essential to enhance the overall benefits of ecosystem services and maintain regional ecological security. Based on the In VEST(Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services(ES) in the Dabie Mountains Area(DMA) of eastern China. The Markov-PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) model was used to conduct a multi-scenario simulation of the area's future development. Water yield(WY) and soil conservation(SC) had overall increasing trends during 2000-2020, carbon storage(CS)decreased overall but slowed with time, and habitat quality(HQ) increased and then decreased. The ecological protection scenario is the best scenario for improving ES in the DMA by 2030;compared to 2020, the total WY would decrease by 3.77 × 10^(8) m^(3), SC would increase by 0.65 × 10^(6) t, CS would increase by 1.33 × 10^(6) t, and HQ would increase by 0.06%. The comprehensive development scenario is the second-most effective scenario for ecological improvement, while the natural development scenario did not have a significant effect. However, as the comprehensive development scenario considers both environmental protection and economic development, which are both vital for the sustainable development of the mountainous areas, this scenario is considered the most suitable path for future development. There are trade-offs between WY, CS, and HQ, while there are synergies between SC, CS, and HQ. Spatially, the DMA's central core district is the main strong synergistic area, the marginal zone is the weak synergistic area, and trade-offs are mainly distributed in the transition zone.

Simulation of urban affordable housing land-use evolution based on CA-MAS model

In order to simulate the evolution of affordable housing land use a dynamic model that combines cellular automata CA and a multi-agent system MAS is established.This paper aims to utilize the approach of decision factors on site selection of affordable housing through a literature review to construct a hierarchy model of those factors identifying the weight of each factor by an analytic hierarchy process AHP .Based on those weight factors the CA-MAS model is designed. Nanjing city is taken as an example to verify the feasibility of the model.The results show that the CA-MAS model is pragmatic and effective in simulating evolution of affordable housing land use which also promotes the fundamental understanding and perception of the development of affordable housing and urbanization.

Considering Regional Connectivity and Policy Factors in the Simulation of Land Use Change in New Areas:A Case Study of Nansha New District,China

Numerous emerging development areas worldwide are receiving attention;however,current research on land use change simulation primarily concentrates on cities,urban clusters,or larger scales.Moreover,there is a limited focus on understanding the impact of regional connectivity with surrounding cities and policy factors on land use change in these new areas.In this context,the present study utilizes a cellular automata(CA)model to investigate land use changes in the case of Nansha New District in Guangzhou,China.Three scenarios are examined,emphasizing conventional locational factors,policy considerations,and the influence of regional connectivity with surrounding cities.The results reveal several key findings:(1)Between 2015 and 2021,Nansha New District experienced significant land use changes,with the most notable shifts observed in cultivated land,water area,and construction land.(2)The comprehensive scenario exhibited the highest simulation accuracy,indicating that Nansha New District,as an emerging area,is notably influenced by policy factors and regional connectivity with surrounding cities.(3)Predictions for land use changes in Nansha by 2030,based on the scenario with the highest level of simulation accuracy,suggest an increase in the proportion of cultivated and forest land areas,alongside a decrease in the proportion of construction land and water area.This study contributes valuable insights to relevant studies and policymakers alike.

Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models

This study investigated and simulated land use patterns in Beijing for the year 2000 and the year 2005 from the actual land use data for the year 1995 and the year 2000,respectively,by combining spatial land allocation simulation using the CLUE-S model,and numerical land demand prediction using the Markov model.The simulations for 2000 and 2005 were confirmed to be generally accurate using Kappa indices.Then the land-use scenarios for Beijing in 2015 were simulated assuming two modes of development:1) urban development following existing trends;and 2) under a strict farmland control.The simulations suggested that under either mode,urbanized areas would expand at the expense of land for other uses.This expansion was predicted to dominate the land-use conversions between 2005 and 2015,and was expected to be accompanied by an extensive loss of farmland.The key susceptible to land-use changes were found to be located at the central urban Beijing and the surrounding regions including Yanqing County,Changping District and Fangshan District.Also,the simulations predicted a considerable expansion of urban/suburban areas in the mountainous regions of Beijing,suggesting a need for priority monitoring and protection.

Land use scenario simulation of mountainous districts based on Dinamica EGO model

Mountainous area makes up 22% of global land, and rational land use in this area is important for sustainable development. Mentougou district has been positioned as an ecological conservation development zone of Beijing and significant land use changes have taken place since 2004. With the combination of GIS and Dinamica EGO(Environment for Geoprocessing Objects) model, the quantitative structure and spatial distribution of land use in Mentougou from 2006 to 2014 are analyzed in this paper. Considering topography has influence on the action mode of driving factors, the research area is divided into two parts based on elevation, mountainous area above 300 m, plain and shallow mountainous area below 300 m. Based on cellular automata theory, the probability of land use change is calculated by Weights of Evidence method and the spatial distribution of land use is simulated by means of two complementary spatial transition functions: Expander and Patcher. Land use pattern of Menougou in 2030 for three kinds of scenarios: trend development, rapid development and ecological protection are simulated. The comparison shows that the trend development scenario is more reasonable based on social, economic and environmental considerations and other scenarios provide a reference for improving irrational land use.

Urban Development Boundary Simulation Based on“Double Evaluation”and FLUS Model

The delimitation of urban development boundaries plays an important role in optimizing the nation land space.“Double evaluation”is one of the important means to study and predict the scale of new construction land in the future and to determine the spatial distribution of urban construction land.This study combines the“double evaluation”with the FLUS(Future Land-Use Simulation)model to study the delimitation of the urban development boundary of Yichang.The results show that:(1)the“double evaluation”method comprehensively considers the carrying capacity of the resource environmental bear and the suitability of urban development;(2)the FLUS model can better couple the“double evaluation”method for Land Use/Land Cover(LULC)suitability evaluation,Land Use/land Cover Change(LUCC)simulation and urban development boundary delineation,and the overall accuracy of the simulation reaches 96%;(3)according to the requirements of relevant national policies,this study divides the urban development boundary of the study area into concentrated construction areas,elastic development areas and special purpose areas.This function-based division can meet the requirements of urban flexible development,ecological protection and urban safety.This research combines the FLUS model,which is widely used in the simulation of LUCC,with the double evaluation method used in China’s new round of land and space planning to obtain the result of the urban development boundary.This result is consistent with the existing plan of the study area.

Historical Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of Land Use and Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage in China

Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-RCPs)published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and incorporates the Policy Control Scenario(PCS)regulated by China’s land management policies.The Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model is employed to generate a 1 km resolution land use/cover change(LUCC)dataset for China in 2030 and 2060.Based on the carbon density dataset of China’s terrestrial ecosystems,the study analyses CS changes and their relationship with land use changes spanning from 1990 to 2060.The findings indicate that the quantitative changes in land use in China from 1990 to 2020 are characterised by a reduction in the area proportion of cropland and grassland,along with an increase in the impervious surface and forest area.This changing trend is projected to continue under the PCS from 2020 to 2060.Under the SSPs-RCPs scenario,the proportion of cropland and impervious surface predominantly increases,while the proportions of forest and grassland continuously decrease.Carbon loss in China’s carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 amounted to 0.53×10^(12)kg,primarily due to the reduced area of cropland and grassland.In the SSPs-RCPs scenario,more significant carbon loss occurs,reaching a peak of8.07×10^(12)kg in the SSP4-RCP3.4 scenario.Carbon loss is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal area and the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH)region of China,with urbanisation and deforestation identified as the primary drivers.In the future,it is advisable to enhance the protection of forests and grassland while stabilising cropland areas and improving the intensity of urban land.These research findings offer valuable data support for China’s land management policy,land space optimisation,and the achievement of dual-carbon targets.

Response of ecosystem carbon storage to land use change from 1985 to 2050 in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China

Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this study,we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model based on land use data.We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios:natural development scenario(NDS),ecological protection scenario(EPS),cultivated land protection scenario(CPS),and urban development scenario(UDS)using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector(Geodetector).Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10^(6) t in 2010,followed by a decreasing trend to 2050.The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,and low values in the western and northern parts.Between 1985 and 2020,land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land,woodland,and construction land at the expense of unused land.The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios(ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS)would be lower than that in 2020.Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS,with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors.Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.

基于FLUS-InVEST模型的川西山地区土地利用变化和碳储量时空演变及预测——以雅安市为例

【目的】通过模型定量核算研究区各类用地的碳排放和碳储量,掌握土地生态系统的碳储量情况及其动态变化特征,为优化土地利用方式,提升区域碳储量提供参考。【方法】以雅安市2000年、2010年、2020年的土地利用数据,采用FLUS-InVEST模型对雅安市近20年来的碳储量进行量化,对其时空变化特征进行分析,利用多情景模拟预测雅安市2030年的碳储量及其变化情况。【结果】(1)2000—2020年雅安市土地利用类型变化趋势中,除草地和未利用地外,其他土地利用类型呈正增长趋势,变化幅度由低到高分别为草地、未利用地、耕地、林地、建设用地、水域,变化幅度分别为-7.41%、-3.87%、0.45%、3.42%、71.71%、104.57%。(2)雅安市2000—2020年碳储量呈先高速上升再缓慢下降趋势,碳储量整体水平是小幅增加,增加4.88×10^(10)t,增幅为1.03%;从空间上看,雅安市碳储量最高的区域为邛崃山—大雪山一线,蒙顶山、周公山等区域呈点状分布。(3)基于FLUS-InVEST模型测算,相较于2020年,在自然发展情景下,2030年雅安市碳储量呈下降趋势,其下降总量为5.23×10^(8) t;在生态协调发展情景下,2030年雅安市碳储量呈上升趋势,其增加总量为1.77×10~9 t。【结论】据预测,在生态协调发展情景下,雅安市2030年土地利用变化碳储量比自然发展情景下更多,因此可通过科学的土地利用规划,加强生态修复和保护,促进区域碳储量的增长。

Land use scenarios simulation in ecological conservation area:A case study of Miyun district,Beijing

Ecological conservation area,as the main water source and ecological barrier of a city,provides ecosystem service for urban sustainable development.Land use simulation and forecast could be beneficial to improve future land use efficiency and environmental protection.In this paper,we took the Miyun district as the study area and applied the CLUE-S model for land use simulation,based on land use data in 2001 and 2010.Eight key driving factors were selected,including elevation,slope,distance,population density and others.Based on the adjusted model parameters,the land use patterns of 2020 in Miyun district were simulated respectively for rapid growth scenario,land use planning scenario and ecological protection scenario and then identify the area needed extraordinary supervision in land planning implementation.The results showed that the simulation accuracy for 2010 reached 85%considerably,implying that the CLUE-S model is well fitted for modeling the land use pattern in Miyun district.Construction land increases and cultivated land decreases dramatically by 2020 in rapid growth and land use planning scenarios.The potential land use change tends to occur near Miyun reservoir,while the sensitive area for ecological protection and land planning implementation are distributed around urban area,Fengjiayu and Jugezhuang town.Some opencast mine areas,which would be converted to forest land in planning,will be hard to execute in the actual situation,so these areas should be paid more attention in land management.The conclusions made in this study will provide data reference and basic information for the future ecological protection and land use planning implementation in Miyun district,which could also be useful for other similar cities.

基于SD-FLUS模型的宁夏土地利用多情景模拟

土地利用变化会对区域发展及生态环境产生重要影响。通过分析宁夏2005~2020年土地利用变化,综合自上而下的系统动力学(SD)模型和自下而上的未来土地利用模拟(FLUS)模型(SD-FLUS模型),结合国际耦合模式比较计划第6阶段(CMIP6)提出的耦合共享社会经济路线和代表性浓度路线(SSP-RCP)情景,模拟了2035年不同情景下的土地利用变化。结果表明:①SD模型模拟的历史时期各类型土地利用面积误差均小于5%,FLUS模型模拟的2020年土地利用总体精度为93%,Kappa指数为0.90,模型精度和可靠性总体符合要求。②2035年所有情景下的建设用地均呈现增加趋势,增长速率从大到小的情景依次为SSP585情景、SSP245情景、SSP119情景;所有情景下,林地面积增加,水域面积保持稳定,草地面积呈现不同程度的减少;耕地面积在SSP585情景下增加,在SSP245情景下稳定,在SSP119情景下减少。③在SSP119情景下,建设用地扩张的同时,生态用地被挤占的程度最小,该情景兼顾社会经济发展和生态保护两种需求,可以作为宁夏黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展先行先试区的未来土地利用参考模式。

基于FLUS模型的巴中市多情景土地利用变化模拟及其生态系统服务价值评估

土地利用变化研究对评估地区经济、生态发展以及生态系统服务价值(ESV)有着重要意义。基于巴中市2000、2010和2020年3期土地利用结构数据,采用CA-Markov和FLUS耦合模型以及15种驱动因素模拟预测2030年多情景土地利用情况,并运用当量因子法评估其生态系统服务功能价值(ESV),进行可视化分析。结果表明:1)巴中市土地利用类型以耕地、林地为主,占96%以上;2000—2020年,建设用地呈不断扩张趋势,面积共扩张290%,主要转入来源为耕地。2)CA-Markov和FLUS耦合模型总体精度较高,Kappa系数为0.81。3种情景下,巴中市2030年土地利用变化总体保持相对稳定,经济建设情景下,建设用地扩张明显,扩张97.59%;生态保护情景下,建设用地面积增长速度相对较缓。3)生态系统服务价值空间差异显著,呈现从北方林区向西南耕地递减,东南地区受水域、林地影响ESV较高的分布格局。

FLUS-InVEST模型的北海市生态系统碳储量时空差异分析

通过耦合FLUS-InVEST模型和2010—2020年土地利用现状数据,核算并预测自然演变情景和绿色集约生态情景下2035年城市土地利用变化及其碳储量的影响,进行空间自相关分析,以期为“双碳”目标下土地利用管理和国土空间规划提供科学参考。结果表明:①2010—2020年地类转化整体以低碳密度地类向高碳密度地类转换为主,耕地无序流向林地问题较为突出;②10年间北海市碳储量整体呈现出先减后增的趋势,整体增加4.01×10^(5) t;③到2035年,北海市碳储量预测值在自然演变情景下仍将继续降低,而在绿色集约生态保护情景中,既可充分保障社会经济高质量发展的前提下使碳储量得到缓慢恢复,又可使碳储量在未来15年间比自然变化情景下少损失1.36×10^(5) t。

基于FLUS模型的南昌市三生空间多情景模拟和生态效应演变研究

以2000—2020年5期土地利用数据为基础,综合运用地统计分析、生态环境效应模型和FLUS模型,从用地转型角度定量分析研究南昌市过去及未来生态环境效应的阶段性时空变化特征,以期为南昌市未来城市发展提供科学参考。结果表明:2000—2020年南昌市用地结构大致表现为生态用地和生产用地不断缩减,生活用地持续扩张的态势;其间南昌市整体生态环境有所恶化,生态环境质量指数由2000年的0.4600减至2020年的0.4349,低和较低质量区面积有所扩大。以惯性发展、耕地保护、生态保护3种不同侧重的情景模拟,预测南昌市2035年“三生空间”:惯性发展情景下生活空间扩张态势显著,耕地保护情景下生产空间面积出现了唯一涨幅,生态保护情景下生态空间也呈现出唯一的上升趋势;惯性发展情景下的生态环境质量与历史土地利用变化产生的生态环境效应变化态势保持一致,恶化程度继续加深,耕地保护情景和生态控制情景下生态质量有所改善。由此建议:南昌市未来发展中,生态控制和耕地保护等政策的推进应注重对建设用地扩张的约束管控,重视盘活存量建设用地,优化国土空间用地结构和布局,以达到在保障经济快速发展、社会稳定进步的同时实现山水协调、粮食安全不受威胁的发展目标。

基于FLUS-InVEST模型的京津冀多情景土地利用变化模拟及其对生态系统服务功能的影响

研究未来不同情景下土地利用变化对区域生态系统服务的影响,可以为城市可持续发展的规划和决策提供有效支持。以京津冀城市群为研究区域,首先利用未来土地利用模拟(FLUS)模型模拟2045年自然发展情景、耕地保护情景和生态保护情景下的土地利用空间分布格局,并结合InVEST模型模拟研究区不同情景下的生境质量、产水量、碳储量、土壤保持量和水质净化服务,在此基础上运用层次分析法构建综合生态系统服务指数(CES),从空间上反映多种生态系统服务的供给总量,研究不同情景下土地利用变化对生态系统服务功能的影响。研究结果表明:①FLUS模型的模拟精度较高,适用于研究区的土地利用模拟。②在生态保护情景下,除产水量相比2015年下降2.47%外,其他几种生态系统服务均有最大幅度的上升,且这4种生态系统服务在西北山区都出现增加的现象;自然发展情景下,城镇用地和农村居民点的扩张引发了大量的碳储量和生境质量损失;耕地保护情景下,水质净化能力出现最大程度的下降。③自然发展情景下京津冀区域CES的损失最大。CES下降幅度最大的区域主要发生在林地被城镇用地侵占,其次是林地被农村居民点侵占的地区,导致生境质量、碳储量和水质净化能力同时下降;在生态保护情景下,林地的增加促进了多种生态系统服务功能同时提升,京津冀区域的CES大幅提高,表明生态保护情景是最有利于可持续发展的土地利用方案。但同时需注意大量造林可能带来的水资源短缺,要因地制宜保护生态环境。研究结果可以为京津冀城市群可持续发展政策的制定提供参考依据,为研究未来不同政策情景下土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响提供新思路。

Simulation of Urban Land Expansion Under Ecological Constraints in Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration,China

Under the demand of urban expansion and the constraints of China’s’National Main Functional Area Planning’policy,urban agglomerations are facing with a huge contradiction between land utilization and ecological protection,especially for HarbinChangchun urban agglomeration who owns a large number of land used for the protection of agricultural production and ecological function.To alleviate this contradiction and provide insight into future land use patterns under different ecological constraints’scenarios,we introduced the patch-based land use simulation(PLUS)model and simulated urban expansion of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration.After verifying the accuracy of the simulation result in 2018,we predicted future urban expansion under the constraints of three different ecological scenarios in 2026.The morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)method and minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model were also introduced to identify different levels of ecological security pattern(ESP)as ecological constraints.The predicted result of the optimal protection(OP)scenario showed less proportion of water and forest than those of natural expansion(NE)and basic protection(BP)scenarios in 2026.The conclusions are that the PLUS model can improve the simulation accuracy at urban agglomeration scale compared with other cellular automata(CA)models,and the future urban expansion under OP scenario has the least threat to the ecosystem,while the expansion under the natural expansion(NE)scenario poses the greatest threat to the ecosystem.Combined with the MSPA and MCR methods,PLUS model can also be used in other spatial simulations of urban agglomerations under ecological constraints.

基于FLUS模型的武汉市未来土地利用时空格局演变模拟

FLUS模型耦合了人类活动与自然因素综合作用,可以模拟预测多种类型土地利用变化,是目前模拟土地利用变化的一种较完善的模拟框架。本文以武汉市为研究区,基于过去一段时期的土地利用变化数据,应用FLUS模型的自上而下灰色马尔科夫预测模块对未来土地利用数量结构进行预测,应用自下而上的耦合神经网络的元胞自动机模块模拟土地利用空间格局的综合演变。结果表明:(1)选取坡度、距市中心距离、距重点镇中心距离、距高速路距离、距主干道距离、距主要河流距离自然环境区位因子作为土地利用变化空间驱动因子,FLUS模型模拟总精度为85.23%,综合Kappa系数为0.770 8,模型模拟结果可靠。(2)2050年武汉市土地利用结构以建设用地、耕地和水域为主,分别占总面积的41%、33%、19%,林地约占6%,草地与未利用地的比例较低。(3)从空间布局看,武汉市建设用地的增长基本呈现同心圆式增长,在发展前期,在发展中心主城区的同时,以卫星城的模式发展周边小城镇。随着中心城区逐渐饱和,远期转向摊大饼式发展,建设用地的扩张侵占了耕地、林地、水域和草地。