Fuzzy Risk Assessment Method for Airborne Network Security Based on AHP-TOPSIS

With the exponential increase in information security risks,ensuring the safety of aircraft heavily relies on the accurate performance of risk assessment.However,experts possess a limited understanding of fundamental security elements,such as assets,threats,and vulnerabilities,due to the confidentiality of airborne networks,resulting in cognitive uncertainty.Therefore,the Pythagorean fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution(TOPSIS)is proposed to address the expert cognitive uncertainty during information security risk assessment for airborne networks.First,Pythagorean fuzzy AHP is employed to construct an index system and quantify the pairwise comparison matrix for determining the index weights,which is used to solve the expert cognitive uncertainty in the process of evaluating the index system weight of airborne networks.Second,Pythagorean fuzzy the TOPSIS to an Ideal Solution is utilized to assess the risk prioritization of airborne networks using the Pythagorean fuzzy weighted distance measure,which is used to address the cognitive uncertainty in the evaluation process of various indicators in airborne network threat scenarios.Finally,a comparative analysis was conducted.The proposed method demonstrated the highest Kendall coordination coefficient of 0.952.This finding indicates superior consistency and confirms the efficacy of the method in addressing expert cognition during information security risk assessment for airborne networks.

IoT Smart Devices Risk Assessment Model Using Fuzzy Logic and PSO

Increasing Internet of Things(IoT)device connectivity makes botnet attacks more dangerous,carrying catastrophic hazards.As IoT botnets evolve,their dynamic and multifaceted nature hampers conventional detection methods.This paper proposes a risk assessment framework based on fuzzy logic and Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO)to address the risks associated with IoT botnets.Fuzzy logic addresses IoT threat uncertainties and ambiguities methodically.Fuzzy component settings are optimized using PSO to improve accuracy.The methodology allows for more complex thinking by transitioning from binary to continuous assessment.Instead of expert inputs,PSO data-driven tunes rules and membership functions.This study presents a complete IoT botnet risk assessment system.The methodology helps security teams allocate resources by categorizing threats as high,medium,or low severity.This study shows how CICIoT2023 can assess cyber risks.Our research has implications beyond detection,as it provides a proactive approach to risk management and promotes the development of more secure IoT environments.

Risk Assessment of Deep-Water Horizontal X-Tree Installation

Due to the high potential risk and many influencing factors of subsea horizontal X-tree installation,to guarantee the successful completion of sea trials of domestic subsea horizontal X-trees,this paper established a modular risk evaluation model based on a fuzzy fault tree.First,through the analysis of the main process oftree down and combining the Offshore&Onshore Reliability Data(OREDA)failure statistics and the operation procedure and the data provided by the job,the fault tree model of risk analysis of the tree down installation was established.Then,by introducing the natural language of expert comprehensive evaluation and combining fuzzy principles,quantitative analysis was carried out,and the fuzzy number was used to calculate the failure probability of a basic event and the occurrence probability of a top event.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of basic events,the basic events of top events significantly affected were determined,and risk control and prevention measures for the corresponding high-risk factors were proposed for subsea horizontal X-tree down installation.

Risk identification and safety assessment of human-computer interaction in integrated avionics based on STAMP

To solve the problem of risk identification and quantitative assessment for human-computer interaction(HCI)in complex avionics systems,an HCI safety analysis framework based on system-theoretical process analysis(STPA)and cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)is proposed.STPACREAM can identify unsafe control actions and find the causal path during the interaction of avionics systems and pilot with the help of formal verification tools automatically.The common performance conditions(CPC)of avionics systems in the aviation environment is established and a quantitative analysis of human failure is carried out.Taking the head-up display(HUD)system interaction process as an example,a case analysis is carried out,the layered safety control structure and formal model of the HUD interaction process are established.For the interactive behavior“Pilots approaching with HUD”,four unsafe control actions and35 causal scenarios are identified and the impact of common performance conditions at different levels on the pilot decision model are analyzed.The results show that HUD's HCI level gradually improves as the scores of CPC increase,and the quality of crew member cooperation and time sufficiency of the task is the key to its HCI.Through case analysis,it is shown that STPACREAM can quantitatively assess the hazards in HCI and identify the key factors that impact safety.

Reliability and validity of the hidden hunger assessment scale in China-revised for high school students

Objective:Hidden hunger remains a severe public health problem that affects millions of people worldwide.In China,challenges related to dietary imbalance and hidden hunger persist.Micronutrient inadequacy deserves more attention among adolescents,given its vital role in their growth and development;however,this problem appears to have been largely ignored.High school students,in particular,are often at a high risk of hidden hunger but have limited assessment tools available.Therefore,this study aims to revise the hidden hunger assessment scale for high school students(HHAS-HSS)in China and assess its reliability and validity.Methods:Based on a literature review,expert consultation,pre-experiment,and formal survey,a hidden hunger assessment scale was revised for high school students.The formal survey involved 9336 high school students in 11 of the 16 cities in Anhui Province,China,and 9038 valid questionnaires were collected and included in the analysis.The item analysis,internal consistency reliability,test-retest reliability,content validity,exploratory factor analysis,and confirmatory factor analysis of the HHAS-HSS were examined.Results:The HHAS-HSS included a total of 4 dimensions and 12 items:"vegetables and food diversity"(three items),"fruits and dairy products"(three items),"micronutrient-dense foods"(four items),and"health condition and eating habits"(two items).The results showed a Cronbach's alpha of 0.758,a split-half reliability of 0.829,and a test-retest reliability of o.793,indicating good internal consistency.Using the Bartlett's test and Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin test(KMO)to test the exploratory factor analysis presented a four-factor model of the HHAS-HSS,the KMO0 value was 0.820(P<0.001),which indicated the possibility for factor confirmatory factor analysis.Using the maximum variance rotation method,four factors were obtained,and the cumulative variance explained rate was 57.974%.Confirmatory factor analysis also supported the division of the scale into four dimensions,and the fitting indices were x^(2)=1417.656,x^(2)/df=29.534,goodness-of-fit index=0.974,adjusted goodnessof-fit index=0.958,parsimonious goodness-of-fit index=0.600,normed fit index=0.938,incremental fit index=0.940,Tucker-Lewis index=0.917,comparative fit index=0.939,and root mean square error of approximation=0.056.Except for x^(2)/df,all the indices reached the fitting standard,and the above results showed that the construct validity of the scale reached an acceptable level.Conclusions:The HHAS-HSS has good validity and reliability for Chinese high school students.It is a convenient self-report measure of hidden hunger risk.

Software Reliability Assessment Using Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy Model

Software reliability is the primary concern of software developmentorganizations, and the exponentially increasing demand for reliable softwarerequires modeling techniques to be developed in the present era. Small unnoticeable drifts in the software can culminate into a disaster. Early removal of theseerrors helps the organization improve and enhance the software’s reliability andsave money, time, and effort. Many soft computing techniques are available toget solutions for critical problems but selecting the appropriate technique is abig challenge. This paper proposed an efficient algorithm that can be used forthe prediction of software reliability. The proposed algorithm is implementedusing a hybrid approach named Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and has also beenapplied to test data. In this work, a comparison among different techniques of softcomputing has been performed. After testing and training the real time data withthe reliability prediction in terms of mean relative error and mean absolute relativeerror as 0.0060 and 0.0121, respectively, the claim has been verified. The resultsclaim that the proposed algorithm predicts attractive outcomes in terms of meanabsolute relative error plus mean relative error compared to the other existingmodels that justify the reliability prediction of the proposed model. Thus, thisnovel technique intends to make this model as simple as possible to improvethe software reliability.

Product reliability assessment based on proportional hazard degradation model

In order to evaluate the reliability of long-lifetime products with degradation data, a new proportional hazard degradation model is proposed. By the similarity between time-degradation data and stress-accelerated lifetime, and the failure rate function of degradation data which is assumed to be proportional to the time covariate, the reliability assessment based on a proportional hazard degradation model is realized. The least squares method is used to estimate the model＇s parameters. Based on the failure rate of the degradation data and the proportion function of the known time, the failure rate and the reliability function under the given time and the predetermined failure threshold can be extrapolated. A long life GaAs laser is selected as a case study and its reliability is evaluated. The results show that the proposed method can accurately describe the degradation process and it is effective for the reliability assessment of long lifetime products.

System reliability assessment based on Wiener process and competing failure analysis

Considering the dependence and competitive relation-ship between traumatic failure and degradation,the reliability assessment of products based on competing failure analysis is studied.The hazard rate of traumatic failure is regarded as a Weibull distribution of the degradation performance,and the Wiener process is used to describe the degradation process.The parameters are estimated with the maximum likelihood estimation（MLE）method.A reliability model based on competing failure analysis is proposed.A case study of the GaAs lasers is given to validate the effectiveness of the model and its solving method.The results indicate that if only the degradation failure is considered,the estimated result will be comparably optimistic.Meanwhile,the correlation between the degradation and traumatic failure has a great influence on the accuracy of reliability assessment.

ON INFORMATION THEORY METHOD FOR RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF SYSTEMS CONSISTING OF DIFFERENT SUCCESS FAILURE MODEL UNITS

Using the characteristic of addition of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, this paper derives the general conversion formulae of the formation theory method conversion (synthesis) on the systems consisting of different success failure model units. According to the fundamental method of the unit reliability assessment, the general models of system reliability approximate lower limits are given. Finally, this paper analyses the application of the assessment method by examples, the assessment results are neither conservative nor radical and very satisfactory. The assessment method can be popularized to the systems which have fixed reliability structural models.

基于VWM-GRA的新型Fuzzy-FMEA复杂装备风险评估方法

失效模式和影响分析(Failure Mode and Effect Analysis,FMEA)是一种识别和预防复杂装备潜在故障模式的风险评估方法,然而,现有FMEA方法采用等权重和精确数表征不确定情形下的风险因素评估信息,导致风险优先数(Risk Priority Number,RPN)难以准确评估复杂装备故障模式的风险优先级。针对这一难题,文中提出了一种基于变权方法-灰色关联分析(Variable Weight Method-Grey Relation Analysis,VWM-GRA)的新型Fuzzy-FMEA复杂装备风险评估方法。在风险因素权重分配方面,在模糊熵值法的基础上,考虑风险评估信息对风险因素权重的影响,构建风险因素变权综合模型以动态调整风险因素权重值,据此确定风险因素的客观变权重;在风险优先数排序方面,在模糊语言变量表征风险因素评估信息的基础上,考虑风险因素评估信息不确定性量化对故障模式排序精度的影响,构建故障模式模糊灰色关联分析模型,以获取评估信息数据序列间的相对关联度,据此评估故障模式的风险优先级。最后,通过航空发动机主轴轴承的故障模式风险实例,分析验证文中方法的有效性。案例分析表明:该方法能够有效解决不确定情形下准确评估复杂装备故障模式风险优先级的难题。

Prioritizing real estate enterprises based on credit risk assessment:an integrated multi‑criteria group decision support framework

Credit risk assessment involves conducting a fair review and evaluation of an assessed subject’s solvency and creditworthiness.In the context of real estate enterprises,credit risk assessment provides a basis for banks and other financial institutions to choose suitable investment objects.Additionally,it encourages real estate enterprises to abide by market norms and provide reliable information for the standardized management of the real estate industry.However,Chinese real estate companies are hesitant to disclose their actual operating data due to privacy concerns,making subjective evalu-ation approaches inevitable,occupying important roles in accomplishing Chinese real estate enterprise credit risk assessment tasks.To improve the normative and reliability of credit risk assessment for Chinese real estate enterprises,this study proposes an integrated multi-criteria group decision-making approach.First,a credit risk assessment index for Chinese real estate enterprises is established.Then,the proposed framework combines proportional hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets and preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation II methods.This approach is suitable for processing large amounts of data with high uncertainty,which is often the case in credit risk assessment tasks of Chinese real estate enterprises involving massive subjec-tive evaluation information.Finally,the proposed model is validated through a case study accompanied by sensitivity and comparative analyses to verify its rationality and feasibility.This study contributes to the research on credit assessment for Chinese real estate enterprises and provides a revised paradigm for real estate enterprise credit risk assessment.

Improved Reliability Analysis Method Based on the Failure Assessment Diagram

With the uncertainties related to operating conditions,in-service non-destructive testing（NDT） measurements and material properties considered in the structural integrity assessment,probabilistic analysis based on the failure assessment diagram（FAD） approach has recently become an important concern.However,the point density revealing the probabilistic distribution characteristics of the assessment points is usually ignored.To obtain more detailed and direct knowledge from the reliability analysis,an improved probabilistic fracture mechanics（PFM） assessment method is proposed.By integrating 2D kernel density estimation（KDE） technology into the traditional probabilistic assessment,the probabilistic density of the randomly distributed assessment points is visualized in the assessment diagram.Moreover,a modified interval sensitivity analysis is implemented and compared with probabilistic sensitivity analysis.The improved reliability analysis method is applied to the assessment of a high pressure pipe containing an axial internal semi-elliptical surface crack.The results indicate that these two methods can give consistent sensitivities of input parameters,but the interval sensitivity analysis is computationally more efficient.Meanwhile,the point density distribution and its contour are plotted in the FAD,thereby better revealing the characteristics of PFM assessment.This study provides a powerful tool for the reliability analysis of critical structures.

Assessment and sequencing of air target threat based on intuitionistic fuzzy entropy and dynamic VIKOR

In view of the fact that traditional air target threat assessment methods are difficult to reflect the combat characteristics of uncertain, dynamic and hybrid formation, an algorithm is proposed to solve the multi-target threat assessment problems. The target attribute weight is calculated by the intuitionistic fuzzy entropy(IFE) algorithm and the time series weight is gained by the Poisson distribution method based on multi-times data. Finally,assessment and sequencing of the air multi-target threat model based on IFE and dynamic Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje(VIKOR) is established with an example which indicates that the method is reasonable and effective.

Assessment on Agricultural Drought Risk Based on Variable Fuzzy Sets Model

Drought is one of the major natural disasters causing huge agricultural losses annually. Regional agricultural drought risk assessment has great significance for reducing regional disaster and agricultural drought losses. Based on the fuzzy characteristics of agricultural drought risk, variable fuzzy sets model was used for comprehensively assessing agricultural drought risk of Liaoning Province in China. A multi-layers and multi-indices assessment model was estab-lished according to variable fuzzy sets theory, and agricultural drought risk of all 14 prefecture-level cities was respec-tively estimated in terms of dangerousness, vulnerability, exposure and drought-resistibility. By calculating the combi-nation weights of four drought risk factors, agricultural drought risk grade of each city was obtained. Based on the as-sessment results, the spatial distribution maps of agricultural drought risk were drawn. The results shows that eastern cities have lower drought dangerousness than western cities in Liaoning Province totally. Most cities are located in low drought vulnerability region and high drought exposure region. Because of frequent and severe drought since 2000, most cities are located in lower drought-resistibility region. Comprehensive agricultural drought risk presents apparent spatial characteristics, escalating from the east to the west. Drought dangerousness is the most important factor influencing comprehensive agricultural drought risk. Through the spatial distribution maps of drought risk, decision makers could find out drought situation and make decisions on drought resistance conveniently.

A Global Reliability Assessment Method on Aging Offshore Platforms with Corrosion and Cracks

Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms. For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms, a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper. The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore platforms. It is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagation. And the corrosion and fatigue crack growth rates in the main members and key joints are modeled as random variables. A simulation method of the extreme wave loads which are applied to the structures of offshore platforms is proposed too. Furthermore, the statistics of global base shear capacity and extreme wave loads are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation method. On the basis of the limit state equation of global failure mode, the instantaneous reliability and time dependent reliability assessment methods are both presented in this paper. Finally the instantaneous reliability index and time dependent failure probability of a jacket platform are estimated with different ages in the demonstration example.

Threat Assessment Method Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Similarity Measurement Reasoning with Orientation

The aim of this paper is to propose a threat assessment method based on intuitionistic fuzzy measurement reasoning with orientaion to deal with the shortcomings of the method proposed in [Ying-Jie Lei et al., Journal of Electronics and Information Technology 29(9)(2007)2077-2081] and [Dong-Feng Chen et al., Procedia Engineering 29(5)(2012)3302-3306] the ignorance of the influence of the intuitionistic index's orientation on the membership functions in the reasoning, which caused partial information loss in reasoning process. Therefore, we present a 3D expression of intuitionistic fuzzy similarity measurement, make an analysis of the constraints for intuitionistic fuzzy similarity measurement, and redefine the intuitionistic fuzzy similarity measurement. Moreover, in view of the threat assessment problem, we give the system variables of attribute function and assessment index, set up the reasoning system based on intuitionistic fuzzy similarity measurement with orientation, and design the reasoning rules, reasoning algorithms and fuzzy-resolving algorithms. Finally, through the threat assessment, some typical examples are cited to verify the validity and superiority of the method.

Reliability assessment on interfacial failure of thermal barrier coatings

Thermal barrier coatings（TBCs） usually exhibit an uncertain lifetime owing to their scattering mechanical properties and severe service conditions. To consider these uncertainties, a reliability assessment method is proposed based on failure probability analysis. First, a limit state equation is established to demarcate the boundary between failure and safe regions, and then the failure probability is calculated by the integration of a probability density function in the failure area according to the first- or second-order moment.It is shown that the parameters related to interfacial failure follow a Weibull distribution in two types of TBC. The interfacial failure of TBCs is significantly affected by the thermal mismatch of material properties and the temperature drop in service.

Reliability assessment and correlation analysis of evaluating orthodontic treatment outcome in Chinese patients

This study aimed to assess the reliability of experienced Chinese orthodontists in evaluating treatment outcome and to determine the correlations between three diagnostic information sources. Sixty-nine experienced Chinese orthodontic specialists each evaluated the outcome of orthodontic treatment of 108 Chinese patients. Three different information sources： study casts （SC）, lateral cephalometric X-ray images （LX） and facial photographs （PH） were generated at the end of treatment for 108 patients selected randomly from six orthodontic treatment centers throughout China. Six different assessments of treatment outcome were made by each orthodontist using data from the three information sources separately and in combination. Each assessment included both ranking and grading for each patient. The rankings of each of the 69 judges for the 108 patients were correlated with the rankings of each of the other judges yielding 13 873 Spearman rs values, ranging from -0.08 to ＋0.85. Of these, 90% were greater than 0.4, showing moderate-to-high consistency among the 69 orthodontists. In the combined evaluations, study casts were the most significant predictive component （R2=0.86, P〈0.000 1）, while the inclusion of lateral cephalometric films and facial photographs also contributed to a more comprehensive assessment （R2=0.96, P〈0.000 1）. Grading scores for SC＋LX and SC＋PH were highly significantly correlated with those for SC＋LX＋PH （r（SC＋LX）vs.（SC＋LX＋PH）=0.96, r（SC＋PH）vs.（SC＋LX＋PH）=0.97）, showing that either SC＋LX or SC＋PH is an excellent substitute for all three combined assessment,

Spatial assessment for groundwater quality based on GIS and improved fuzzy comprehensive assessment with entropy weights

The objective of the research is to evaluate spatial groundwater quality based on improved fuzzy comprehensive assessment model with entropy weights(FCAEW)in geographical information system(GIS)environment.This paper explores the method of comprehensive evaluation of groundwater and sets up an evaluation model applying GIS and FCAEW.Groundwater samples were collected and analyzed from 29 wells in Zhenping County,China.Six parameters were chosen including chloride,sulfate,total hardness,nitrate,fluoride and color.Better spatial interpolation methods for evaluated parameters are found out and selected according to the minimum cross-validation errors from the interpolation methods.FCAEW model was carried out with the help of GIS which makes the evaluating process simpler and easier and more automatically,effectively,efficiently and intelligently.The result embodies the feasibility and effectiveness of FCAEW in GIS when compared with other comprehensive evaluation methods.

A New Safety Assessment Method Based on Belief Rule Base With Attribute Reliability

Safety assessment is one of important aspects in health management.In safety assessment for practical systems,three problems exist:lack of observation information,high system complexity and environment interference.Belief rule base with attribute reliability(BRB-r)is an expert system that provides a useful way for dealing with these three problems.In BRB-r,once the input information is unreliable,the reliability of belief rule is influenced,which further influences the accuracy of its output belief degree.On the other hand,when many system characteristics exist,the belief rule combination will explode in BRB-r,and the BRB-r based safety assessment model becomes too complicated to be applied.Thus,in this paper,to balance the complexity and accuracy of the safety assessment model,a new safety assessment model based on BRB-r with considering belief rule reliability is developed for the first time.In the developed model,a new calculation method of the belief rule reliability is proposed with considering both attribute reliability and global ignorance.Moreover,to reduce the influence of uncertainty of expert knowledge,an optimization model for the developed safety assessment model is constructed.A case study of safety assessment of liquefied natural gas(LNG)storage tank is conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the new developed model.