The character and an algorithm about DRVIP（ discrete random variable with interval probability） and the secured kind DRVFP （discrete random variable with crisp event-fuzzy probability） are researched. Using the fu...The character and an algorithm about DRVIP（ discrete random variable with interval probability） and the secured kind DRVFP （discrete random variable with crisp event-fuzzy probability） are researched. Using the fuzzy resolution theorem, the solving mathematical expectation of a DRVFP can be translated into solving mathematical expectation of a series of RVIP. It is obvious that solving mathematical expectation of a DRVIP is a typical linear programming problem. A very functional calculating formula for solving mathematical expectation of DRVIP was obtained by using the Dantzig＇s simplex method. The example indicates that the result obtained by using the functional calculating formula fits together completely with the result obtained by using the linear programming method, but the process using the formula deduced is simpler.展开更多
Mathematic description about the second kind fuzzy random variable namely the random variable with crisp event-fuzzy probability was studied. Based on the interval probability and using the fuzzy resolution theorem, t...Mathematic description about the second kind fuzzy random variable namely the random variable with crisp event-fuzzy probability was studied. Based on the interval probability and using the fuzzy resolution theorem, the feasible condition about a probability fuzzy number set was given,go a step further the definition and characters of random variable with fuzzy probability (RVFP) and the fuzzy distribution function and fuzzy probability distribution sequence of the RVFP were put forward. The fuzzy probability resolution theorem with the closing operation of fuzzy probability was given and proved. The definition and characters of mathematical expectation and variance of the RVFP were studied also. All mathematic description about the RVFP has the closing operation for fuzzy probability,as a result, the foundation of perfecting fuzzy probability operation method is laid.展开更多
A novel method for decision making with fuzzy probability assessments and fuzzy payoff is presented. The consistency of the fuzzy probability assessment is considered. A fuzzy aggregate algorithm is used to indicate t...A novel method for decision making with fuzzy probability assessments and fuzzy payoff is presented. The consistency of the fuzzy probability assessment is considered. A fuzzy aggregate algorithm is used to indicate the fuzzy expected payoff of alternatives. The level sets of each fuzzy expected payoff are then obtained by solving linear programming models. Based on a defuzzification function associated with the level sets of fuzzy number and a numerical integration formula (Newton-Cotes formula), an effective approach to rank the fuzzy expected payoff of alternatives is also developed to determine the best alternative. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the proposed method.展开更多
Traditionally, the calculation of reliability of fuzzy random structures is based on the well-known formulation of probability of fuzzy events. But sometimes the results of this formulation will not indicating the rea...Traditionally, the calculation of reliability of fuzzy random structures is based on the well-known formulation of probability of fuzzy events. But sometimes the results of this formulation will not indicating the real state of safety of fuzzy-random structures. Based on the possibility theory, a computational procedure for the reliability analysis of fuzzy failure problems and random-fuzzy failure problems of mechanical structures that contain fuzzy variables were presented. A procedure for the analysis of structural reliability of problems of fuzzy failure criterion was also proposed. The failure possibility of fuzzy structures and possibility distribution of the probability of failure of fuzzy-random structures can be given by the proposed methods. It is shown that for the hybrid probabilistic and fuzzy reliability problems, the probability of failure should be suitably taken as a fuzzy variable in order to indicate the real safety of system objectively. Two examples illustrate the validity and rationality of the proposed methods.展开更多
Based on forecasting criteria of tropical cyclone categories of left and right turning and stable track and fuzzy mathematical principles, a fuzzy probability prediction method is formulated for track changes. It is 4...Based on forecasting criteria of tropical cyclone categories of left and right turning and stable track and fuzzy mathematical principles, a fuzzy probability prediction method is formulated for track changes. It is 48-h valid for forecasting sudden change or stable track as well as giving fuzzy probability of trajectory, for the use in decision-making. As shown in operational experiments, if is easy to operate, simple to illustrate, objective to quantify.definite to conclude. and satisfactory to actualize. It is dependable with high level of reference, especially when the fuzzy probability is greater than 70%. for errors in direction and 48-h mean distance errors are all lower than those at major forecasting centers at home or abroad.展开更多
In this study, a fuzzy probability-based Markov chain model is developed for forecasting regional long-term electric power demand. The model can deal with the uncertainties in electric power system and reflect the vag...In this study, a fuzzy probability-based Markov chain model is developed for forecasting regional long-term electric power demand. The model can deal with the uncertainties in electric power system and reflect the vague and ambiguous during the process of power load forecasting through allowing uncertainties expressed as fuzzy parameters and discrete intervals. The developed model is applied to predict the electric power demand of Beijing from 2011 to 2019. Different satisfaction degrees of fuzzy parameters are considered as different levels of detail of the statistic data. The results indicate that the model can reflect the high uncertainty of long term power demand, which could support the programming and management of power system. The fuzzy probability Markov chain model is helpful for regional electricity power system managers in not only predicting a long term power load under uncertainty but also providing a basis for making multi-scenarios power generation/development plans.展开更多
One of the important fields in statistics is testing hypothesis of correlation coefficient. The extension of the idea of testing correlation to fuzzy hypothesis is of great interesting. In this study, we examined the ...One of the important fields in statistics is testing hypothesis of correlation coefficient. The extension of the idea of testing correlation to fuzzy hypothesis is of great interesting. In this study, we examined the use of fuzzy hypothesis testing approach for the Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) of correlation coefficient. Use of fuzzy hypothesis testing for correlation coefficient with SPRT is illustrated by an example.展开更多
Two-stage problem of stochastic convex programming with fuzzy probability distribution is studied in this paper. Multicut L-shaped algorithm is proposed to solve the problem based on the fuzzy cutting and the minimax ...Two-stage problem of stochastic convex programming with fuzzy probability distribution is studied in this paper. Multicut L-shaped algorithm is proposed to solve the problem based on the fuzzy cutting and the minimax rule. Theorem of the convergence for the algorithm is proved. Finally, a numerical example about two-stage convex recourse problem shows the essential character and the efficiency.展开更多
The design target with definite purpose character of product quality wasdescribed in a real fuzzy number ( named fuzzy target for short in this paper), and its membershipjunctions in common use were given. According t...The design target with definite purpose character of product quality wasdescribed in a real fuzzy number ( named fuzzy target for short in this paper), and its membershipjunctions in common use were given. According to the fuzzy probability theory and the robust designprinciple, the robust design rule based on fuzzy probability (named fuzzy robust design rule forshort) was put forward and its validity and practicability were analyzed and tested with a designexample. The theoretical analysis and the design examples make clear that, while the fuzzy robustdesign rule was used, the fine design effect can be obtained and the fuzzy robust design rule can bevery suitable for the choice of the membership function of the fuzzy target; so it has a particularadvantage.展开更多
Short-duration heavy rainfall(SHR),as delineated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Me-teorological Administration,is characterized by hourly rainfall amounts no less than 20.0 mm.SHR is one of the mos...Short-duration heavy rainfall(SHR),as delineated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Me-teorological Administration,is characterized by hourly rainfall amounts no less than 20.0 mm.SHR is one of the most common convective weather phenomena that can cause severe damage.Short-range forecasting of SHR is an important part of operational severe weather prediction.In the present study,an improved objective SHR forecasting scheme was developed by adopting the ingredients-based methodology and using the fuzzy logic approach.The 1.0°×1.0°National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)final analysis data and the ordinary rainfall(0.1-19.9 mm h-1)and SHR observational data from 411 stations were used in the improved scheme.The best lifted index,the total precipitable water,the 925 hPa specific humidity(Q 925),and the 925 hPa divergence(DIV 925)were selected as predictors based on objective analysis.Continuously distributed membership functions of predictors were obtained based on relative frequency analysis.The weights of predictors were also objectively determined.Experiments with a typhoon SHR case and a spring SHR case show that the main possible areas could be captured by the improved scheme.Verification of SHR forecasts within 96 hours with NCEP global forecasts 1.0°×1.0°data initiated at 08:00 Beijing Time during the warm seasons in 2015 show the results were improved from both deterministic and probabilistic perspectives.This study provides an objectively feasible choice for short-range guidance forecasts of SHR.The scheme can be applied to other convective phenomena.展开更多
A new identification method of neuro-uzzy Hammerstein model based on probability density function(PDF) is presented,which is different from the idea that mean squared error(MSE) is employed as the index function in tr...A new identification method of neuro-uzzy Hammerstein model based on probability density function(PDF) is presented,which is different from the idea that mean squared error(MSE) is employed as the index function in traditional identification methods.Firstly,a neuro-fuzzy based Hammerstein model is constructed to describe the nonlinearity of Hammerstein process without any prior process knowledge.Secondly,a kind of special test signal is used to separate the link parts of the Hammerstein model.More specifically,the conception of PDF is introduced to solve the identification problem of the neuro-fuzzy Hammerstein model.The antecedent parameters are estimated by a clustering algorithm,while the consequent parameters of the model are identified by designing a virtual PDF control system in which the PDF of the modeling error is estimated and controlled to converge to the target.The proposed method not only guarantees the accuracy of the model but also dominates the spatial distribution of PDF of the model error to improve the generalization ability of the model.Simulated results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
文摘The character and an algorithm about DRVIP（ discrete random variable with interval probability） and the secured kind DRVFP （discrete random variable with crisp event-fuzzy probability） are researched. Using the fuzzy resolution theorem, the solving mathematical expectation of a DRVFP can be translated into solving mathematical expectation of a series of RVIP. It is obvious that solving mathematical expectation of a DRVIP is a typical linear programming problem. A very functional calculating formula for solving mathematical expectation of DRVIP was obtained by using the Dantzig＇s simplex method. The example indicates that the result obtained by using the functional calculating formula fits together completely with the result obtained by using the linear programming method, but the process using the formula deduced is simpler.
文摘Mathematic description about the second kind fuzzy random variable namely the random variable with crisp event-fuzzy probability was studied. Based on the interval probability and using the fuzzy resolution theorem, the feasible condition about a probability fuzzy number set was given,go a step further the definition and characters of random variable with fuzzy probability (RVFP) and the fuzzy distribution function and fuzzy probability distribution sequence of the RVFP were put forward. The fuzzy probability resolution theorem with the closing operation of fuzzy probability was given and proved. The definition and characters of mathematical expectation and variance of the RVFP were studied also. All mathematic description about the RVFP has the closing operation for fuzzy probability,as a result, the foundation of perfecting fuzzy probability operation method is laid.
文摘A novel method for decision making with fuzzy probability assessments and fuzzy payoff is presented. The consistency of the fuzzy probability assessment is considered. A fuzzy aggregate algorithm is used to indicate the fuzzy expected payoff of alternatives. The level sets of each fuzzy expected payoff are then obtained by solving linear programming models. Based on a defuzzification function associated with the level sets of fuzzy number and a numerical integration formula (Newton-Cotes formula), an effective approach to rank the fuzzy expected payoff of alternatives is also developed to determine the best alternative. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the proposed method.
文摘Traditionally, the calculation of reliability of fuzzy random structures is based on the well-known formulation of probability of fuzzy events. But sometimes the results of this formulation will not indicating the real state of safety of fuzzy-random structures. Based on the possibility theory, a computational procedure for the reliability analysis of fuzzy failure problems and random-fuzzy failure problems of mechanical structures that contain fuzzy variables were presented. A procedure for the analysis of structural reliability of problems of fuzzy failure criterion was also proposed. The failure possibility of fuzzy structures and possibility distribution of the probability of failure of fuzzy-random structures can be given by the proposed methods. It is shown that for the hybrid probabilistic and fuzzy reliability problems, the probability of failure should be suitably taken as a fuzzy variable in order to indicate the real safety of system objectively. Two examples illustrate the validity and rationality of the proposed methods.
文摘Based on forecasting criteria of tropical cyclone categories of left and right turning and stable track and fuzzy mathematical principles, a fuzzy probability prediction method is formulated for track changes. It is 48-h valid for forecasting sudden change or stable track as well as giving fuzzy probability of trajectory, for the use in decision-making. As shown in operational experiments, if is easy to operate, simple to illustrate, objective to quantify.definite to conclude. and satisfactory to actualize. It is dependable with high level of reference, especially when the fuzzy probability is greater than 70%. for errors in direction and 48-h mean distance errors are all lower than those at major forecasting centers at home or abroad.
文摘In this study, a fuzzy probability-based Markov chain model is developed for forecasting regional long-term electric power demand. The model can deal with the uncertainties in electric power system and reflect the vague and ambiguous during the process of power load forecasting through allowing uncertainties expressed as fuzzy parameters and discrete intervals. The developed model is applied to predict the electric power demand of Beijing from 2011 to 2019. Different satisfaction degrees of fuzzy parameters are considered as different levels of detail of the statistic data. The results indicate that the model can reflect the high uncertainty of long term power demand, which could support the programming and management of power system. The fuzzy probability Markov chain model is helpful for regional electricity power system managers in not only predicting a long term power load under uncertainty but also providing a basis for making multi-scenarios power generation/development plans.
文摘One of the important fields in statistics is testing hypothesis of correlation coefficient. The extension of the idea of testing correlation to fuzzy hypothesis is of great interesting. In this study, we examined the use of fuzzy hypothesis testing approach for the Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) of correlation coefficient. Use of fuzzy hypothesis testing for correlation coefficient with SPRT is illustrated by an example.
文摘Two-stage problem of stochastic convex programming with fuzzy probability distribution is studied in this paper. Multicut L-shaped algorithm is proposed to solve the problem based on the fuzzy cutting and the minimax rule. Theorem of the convergence for the algorithm is proved. Finally, a numerical example about two-stage convex recourse problem shows the essential character and the efficiency.
文摘The design target with definite purpose character of product quality wasdescribed in a real fuzzy number ( named fuzzy target for short in this paper), and its membershipjunctions in common use were given. According to the fuzzy probability theory and the robust designprinciple, the robust design rule based on fuzzy probability (named fuzzy robust design rule forshort) was put forward and its validity and practicability were analyzed and tested with a designexample. The theoretical analysis and the design examples make clear that, while the fuzzy robustdesign rule was used, the fine design effect can be obtained and the fuzzy robust design rule can bevery suitable for the choice of the membership function of the fuzzy target; so it has a particularadvantage.
基金Key R&D Program of Xizang Autonomous Region(XZ202101ZY0004G)National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2142202)+1 种基金National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFC3004104)Key Innovation Team of China Meteor-ological Administration(CMA2022ZD07)。
文摘Short-duration heavy rainfall(SHR),as delineated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Me-teorological Administration,is characterized by hourly rainfall amounts no less than 20.0 mm.SHR is one of the most common convective weather phenomena that can cause severe damage.Short-range forecasting of SHR is an important part of operational severe weather prediction.In the present study,an improved objective SHR forecasting scheme was developed by adopting the ingredients-based methodology and using the fuzzy logic approach.The 1.0°×1.0°National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)final analysis data and the ordinary rainfall(0.1-19.9 mm h-1)and SHR observational data from 411 stations were used in the improved scheme.The best lifted index,the total precipitable water,the 925 hPa specific humidity(Q 925),and the 925 hPa divergence(DIV 925)were selected as predictors based on objective analysis.Continuously distributed membership functions of predictors were obtained based on relative frequency analysis.The weights of predictors were also objectively determined.Experiments with a typhoon SHR case and a spring SHR case show that the main possible areas could be captured by the improved scheme.Verification of SHR forecasts within 96 hours with NCEP global forecasts 1.0°×1.0°data initiated at 08:00 Beijing Time during the warm seasons in 2015 show the results were improved from both deterministic and probabilistic perspectives.This study provides an objectively feasible choice for short-range guidance forecasts of SHR.The scheme can be applied to other convective phenomena.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61374044)Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission,China(No.15510722100)+2 种基金Shanghai Municipal Education Commission,China(No.14ZZ088)Shanghai Talent Development Plan,ChinaShanghai Baoshan Science and Technology Commission,China(No.bkw2013120)
文摘A new identification method of neuro-uzzy Hammerstein model based on probability density function(PDF) is presented,which is different from the idea that mean squared error(MSE) is employed as the index function in traditional identification methods.Firstly,a neuro-fuzzy based Hammerstein model is constructed to describe the nonlinearity of Hammerstein process without any prior process knowledge.Secondly,a kind of special test signal is used to separate the link parts of the Hammerstein model.More specifically,the conception of PDF is introduced to solve the identification problem of the neuro-fuzzy Hammerstein model.The antecedent parameters are estimated by a clustering algorithm,while the consequent parameters of the model are identified by designing a virtual PDF control system in which the PDF of the modeling error is estimated and controlled to converge to the target.The proposed method not only guarantees the accuracy of the model but also dominates the spatial distribution of PDF of the model error to improve the generalization ability of the model.Simulated results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.
