Stochastic Optimal Estimation with Fuzzy Random Variables and Fuzzy Kalman Filtering

By constructing a mcan-square performance index in the case of fuzzy random variable, the optimal estimation theorem for unknown fuzzy state using the fuzzy observation data are given. The state and output of linear discrete-time dynamic fuzzy system with Gaussian noise are Gaussian fuzzy random variable sequences. An approach to fuzzy Kalman filtering is discussed. Fuzzy Kalman filtering contains two parts： a real-valued non-random recurrence equation and the standard Kalman filtering.

Strong Laws of Large Numbers for Fuzzy Set-Valued Random Variables in Gα Space

In this paper, we shall present the strong laws of large numbers for fuzzy set-valued random variables in the sense of d∞H . The results are based on the result of single-valued random variables obtained by Taylor [1] and set-valued random variables obtained by Li Guan [2].

Improved Group Fuzzy Preference Programming Method Based on Fuzzy Random Theory

A new prioritization method in the analytic hierarchy process （AHP）, which improves the group fuzzy preference programming （GFPP） method, is proposed. The fuzzy random theory is applied in the new prioritization method. By modifying the principle of decision making implied in the GFPP method, the improved group fuzzy preference programming （IGFPP） method is formulated as a fuzzy linear programming problem to maximize the average degree of the group satisfaction with all possible group priority vectors. The IGFPP method inherits the advantages of the GFPP method, and solves the weighting trouble existed in the GFPP method. Numerical tests indicate that the IGFPP method performs more effectively than the GFPP method in the case of very contradictive comparison judgments from decision makers.

European option pricing model in a stochastic and fuzzy environment

The primary goal of this paper is to price European options in the Merton＇s frame- work with underlying assets following jump-diffusion using fuzzy set theory. Owing to the vague fluctuation of the real financial market, the average jump rate and jump sizes cannot be recorded or collected accurately. So the main idea of this paper is to model the rate as a triangular fuzzy number and jump sizes as fuzzy random variables and use the property of fuzzy set to deduce two different jump-diffusion models underlying principle of rational expectations equilibrium price. Unlike many conventional models, the European option price will now turn into a fuzzy number. One of the major advantages of this model is that it allows investors to choose a reasonable European option price under an acceptable belief degree. The empirical results will serve as useful feedback information for improvements on the proposed model.

Convergence Theorems for Fuzzy Superpramarts

The notions of fuzzy (super) pramart are introduced. Then the completeness and separability of metric space are discussed. A necessary and sufficient condition of convergence for fuzzy sequences is provided. Finally, the graph Kuratowski-Mosco convergence and D-convergence of fuzzy (super) pramart and quasi-martingale are studied.

Strong Limit Theorems for Arbitrary Fuzzy Stochastic Sequences

Based on fuzzy random variables, the concept of fuzzy stochastic sequences is defined. Strong limit theorems for fuzzy stochastic sequences are established. Some known results in non-fuzzy stochastic sequences are extended. In order to prove results of this paper, the notion of fuzzy martingale difference sequences is also introduced.

A Kaleodoscopic View of Fuzzy Stochastic Optimization*

The last three decades have witnessed development of optimization under fuzziness and randomness also called Fuzzy Stochastic Optimization. The main objective of this new field is the need for basing many human decisions on information which is both fuzzily imprecise and probabilistically uncertain. Consistency indexes providing a union nexus between possibilities and probabilities of uncertain events exist in the literature. Nevertheless, there are no reliable transformations between them. This calls for new paradigms for coping with mathematical models involving both fuzziness and randomness. Fuzzy Stochastic Optimization (FSO) is an attempt to fulfill this need. In this paper, we present a panoramic view of Fuzzy Stochastic Optimization emphasizing the methodological aspects. The merits of existing methods are also briefly discussed along with some related theoretical aspects.

Fuzzy norm method for evaluating random vibration of airborne platform from limited PSD data

For random vibration of airborne platform, the accurate evaluation is a key indicator to ensure normal operation of airborne equipment in flight. However, only limited power spectral density（PSD） data can be obtained at the stage of flight test. Thus, those conventional evaluation methods cannot be employed when the distribution characteristics and priori information are unknown. In this paper, the fuzzy norm method（FNM） is proposed which combines the advantages of fuzzy theory and norm theory. The proposed method can deeply dig system information from limited data, which probability distribution is not taken into account. Firstly, the FNM is employed to evaluate variable interval and expanded uncertainty from limited PSD data, and the performance of FNM is demonstrated by confidence level, reliability and computing accuracy of expanded uncertainty. In addition, the optimal fuzzy parameters are discussed to meet the requirements of aviation standards and metrological practice. Finally, computer simulation is used to prove the adaptability of FNM. Compared with statistical methods, FNM has superiority for evaluating expanded uncertainty from limited data. The results show that the reliability of calculation and evaluation is superior to 95%.

A Possibilistic Approach for Uncertainty Representation and Propagation in Similarity-Based Prognostic Health Management Solutions

In this paper, a data-driven prognostic model capable to deal with different sources of uncertainty is proposed. The main novelty factor is the application of a mathematical framework, namely a Random Fuzzy Variable (RFV) approach, for the representation and propagation of the different uncertainty sources affecting Prognostic Health Management (PHM) applications: measurement, future and model uncertainty. In this way, it is possible to deal not only with measurement noise and model parameters uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of the degradation process, but also with systematic effects, such as systematic errors in the measurement process, incomplete knowledge of the degradation process, subjective belief about model parameters. Furthermore, the low analytical complexity of the employed prognostic model allows to easily propagate the measurement and parameters uncertainty into the RUL forecast, with no need of extensive Monte Carlo loops, so that low requirements in terms of computation power are needed. The model has been applied to two real application cases, showing high accuracy output, resulting in a potentially effective tool for predictive maintenance in different industrial sectors.