Exploration of the Impact Mechanism of Government Credibility Based on Variable Screening Method

Government credibility is an important asset of contemporary national governance, an important criterion for evaluating government legitimacy, and a key factor in measuring the effectiveness of government governance. In recent years, researchers’ research on government credibility has mostly focused on exploring theories and mechanisms, with little empirical research on this topic. This article intends to apply variable selection models in the field of social statistics to the issue of government credibility, in order to achieve empirical research on government credibility and explore its core influencing factors from a statistical perspective. Specifically, this article intends to use four regression-analysis-based methods and three random-forest-based methods to study the influencing factors of government credibility in various provinces in China, and compare the performance of these seven variable selection methods in different dimensions. The research results show that there are certain differences in simplicity, accuracy, and variable importance ranking among different variable selection methods, which present different importance in the study of government credibility issues. This study provides a methodological reference for variable selection models in the field of social science research, and also offers a multidimensional comparative perspective for analyzing the influencing factors of government credibility.

Complete moment convergence for ND random variables under the sub-linear expectations

In this article,we establish a general result on complete moment convergence for arrays of rowwise negatively dependent(ND)random variables under the sub-linear expectations.As applications,we can obtain a series of results on complete moment convergence for ND random variables under the sub-linear expectations.

LARGE DEVIATIONS AND MODERATE DEVIATIONS FOR m-NEGATIVELY ASSOCIATED RANDOM VARIABLES

M-negatively associated random variables, which generalizes the classical one of negatively associated random variables and includes m-dependent sequences as its particular case, are introduced and studied. Large deviation principles and moderate deviation upper bounds for stationary m-negatively associated random variables are proved. Kolmogorov-type and Marcinkiewicz-type strong laws of large numbers as well as the three series theorem for m-negatively associated random variables are also given.

ON CHOVER'S LIL FOR THE WEIGHTED SUMS OF STABLE RANDOM VARIABLES

Let {Xn,n ≥ 1} be a sequence of α-stable random variables(0 < α < 2), {ani,1 ≤ i≤ n, n≥1} be an array of constant real numbers. Under some restriction of {ani,1 ≤ i ≤ n,n≥1}, the authors discuss the integral test for the weighted partial sums {Σi=1naniXi,n ≥ 1}, and obtain the Chover's laws of iterated logarithm(LIL) as corollaries.

ON THE LIMITING BEHAVIOR OF THE MAXIMUM PARTIAL SUMS FOR ARRAYS OF ROWWISE NA RANDOM VARIABLES

Let {Xni, 1 ≤ n,i 〈 ∞} be an an array of rowwise NA random variables and {an, n ≥ 1} a sequence of constants with 0 〈 an ↑∞ . The limiting behavior of maximum partial sums 1/an max 1≤k≤n｜^k∑i=1 Xni｜ is investigated and some new results are obtained. The results extend and improve the corresponding theorems of rowwise independent random variable arrays by Hu and Taylor [1] and Hu and Chang [2].

On the Strong Laws for Weighted Sums of m-negatively Asso ciated Random Variables

In this article, the author establishes the strong laws for linear statistics that are weighted sums of a m-negatively associated(m-NA) random sample. The obtained results extend and improve the result of Qiu and Yang in [1] to m-NA random variables.

PRECISE ASYMPTOTICS IN SELF-NORMALIZED SUMS OF ITERATED LOGARITHM FOR MULTIDIMENSIONALLY INDEXED RANDOM VARIABLES

In the case of Z＋^d（d ≥ 2）-the positive d-dimensional lattice points with partial ordering ≤, {Xk,k∈ Z＋^d} i.i.d, random variables with mean 0, Sn =∑k≤nXk and Vn^2 = ∑j≤nXj^2, the precise asymptotics for ∑n1/｜n｜（log｜n｜dP（｜Sn/Vn｜≥ε√log log｜n｜） and ∑n（logn｜）b/｜n｜（log｜n｜）^d-1P（｜Sn/Vn｜≥ε√log n）,as ε↓0,is established.

SOME LIMIT THEOREMS FOR WEIGHTED SUMS OF ARRAYS OF NOD RANDOM VARIABLES

In this paper the authors study the complete, weak and almost sure convergence for weighted sums of NOD random variables and obtain some new limit theorems for weighted sums of NOD random variables, which extend the corresponding theorems of Stout [1], Thrum [2] and Hu et al. [3].

On the strong convergence properties for weighted sums of negatively orthant dependent random variables

In the paper, the strong convergence properties for two different weighted sums of negatively orthant dependent(NOD) random variables are investigated. Let {X, n ≥ 1}be a sequence of NOD random variables. The results obtained in the paper generalize the corresponding ones for i.i.d. random variables and identically distributed NA random variables to the case of NOD random variables, which are stochastically dominated by a random variable X. As a byproduct, the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund type strong law of large numbers for NOD random variables is also obtained.

Some Convergence Results for Sequences of -mixing Random Variables

In this paper, we will present some strong convergence results for sequences of ψ-mixing random variables. The results for sequences of ψ-mixing random variables generalize the corresponding results for independent random variable sequences without any extra conditions.

Reliability analysis for aeroengine turbine disc fatigue life with multiple random variables based on distributed collaborative response surface method

The fatigue life of aeroengine turbine disc presents great dispersion due to the randomness of the basic variables,such as applied load,working temperature,geometrical dimensions and material properties.In order to ameliorate reliability analysis efficiency without loss of reliability,the distributed collaborative response surface method(DCRSM) was proposed,and its basic theories were established in this work.Considering the failure dependency among the failure modes,the distributed response surface was constructed to establish the relationship between the failure mode and the relevant random variables.Then,the failure modes were considered as the random variables of system response to obtain the distributed collaborative response surface model based on structure failure criterion.Finally,the given turbine disc structure was employed to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the presented method.Through the comparison of DCRSM,Monte Carlo method(MCM) and the traditional response surface method(RSM),the results show that the computational precision for DCRSM is more consistent with MCM than RSM,while DCRSM needs far less computing time than MCM and RSM under the same simulation conditions.Thus,DCRSM is demonstrated to be a feasible and valid approach for improving the computational efficiency of reliability analysis for aeroengine turbine disc fatigue life with multiple random variables,and has great potential value for the complicated mechanical structure with multi-component and multi-failure mode.

Strong Law of Large Numbers and Complete Convergence for Sequences of -Mixing Random Variables

We give some theorems of strong law of large numbers and complete convergence for sequences of φ-mixing random variables. In particular, Wittmann＇s strong law of large numbers and Teicher＇s strong law of large nnumbers for independent random variables are generalized to the case of φ -minxing random variables.

On the Strong Rates of Convergence for Arrays of Rowwise Extended Negatively Dependent Random Variables

A general result on the strong convergence rate and complete convergence for arrays of rowwise extended negatively dependent random variables is established. As applications, some well-known results on negatively dependent random variables can be easily extended to the case of arrays of rowwise extended negatively dependent random variables.

Some Limit Theorems for Weighted Sums of Random Variable Fields

Let{Xn^-,n^-∈N^d}be a field of Banach space valued random variables, 0 〈r〈p≤2 and{an^-,k^-, （n^-,k^-） ∈ N^d × N^d ,k^-≤n^-} a triangular array of real numhers, where N^d is the d-dimensional lattice （d≥1 ）. Under the minimal condition that {｜｜Xn^-｜｜ r,n^- ∈N^d} is {｜an^-,k^-｜^r,（n^-,k^-）} ∈ N^d ×N^d,k^-≤n^-}-uniformly integrable, we show that ∑（k^-≤n^-）an^-,k^-,Xk^-^（L^r（or a,s,）→0 as ｜n^-｜→∞ In the above, if 0〈r〈1, the random variables are not needed to be independent. If 1≤r〈p≤2, and Banach space valued random variables are independent with mean zero we assume the Banaeh space is of type p. If 1≤r≤p≤2 and Banach space valued random variables are not independent we assume the Banach space is p-smoothable.

Complete Moment Convergence for Arrays of Rowwise Negatively Associated Random Variables

In this paper, the authors present some new results on complete moment convergence for arrays of rowwise negatively associated random variables. These results improve some previous known theorems.

The Strong Convergence Properties for Partial Sums of m-NA Random Variables

In this paper, by the three series theorem of m-negatively associated(m-NA,in short) random variables and the truncation method of random variables, we mainly investigated the strong convergence properties for partial sums of m-NA random variables.In addition, the Khintchine-Kolmogorov convergence theorem and Kolmogorov-type strong law of large numbers for m-NA random variables are also obtained. The results obtained in the paper generalize some corresponding ones for independent random variables and some dependent random variables.

On the Cosmic Evolution of the Quantum Vacuum Using Two Variable G Models and Winterberg’s Thesis

We work within a Winterberg framework where space, i.e., the vacuum, consists of a two component superfluid/super-solid made up of a vast assembly (sea) of positive and negative mass Planck particles, called planckions. These material particles interact indirectly, and have very strong restoring forces keeping them a finite distance apart from each other within their respective species. Because of their mass compensating effect, the vacuum appears massless, charge-less, without pressure, net energy density or entropy. In addition, we consider two varying G models, where G, is Newton’s constant, and G-1, increases with an increase in cosmological time. We argue that there are at least two competing models for the quantum vacuum within such a framework. The first follows a strict extension of Winterberg’s model. This leads to nonsensible results, if G increases, going back in cosmological time, as the length scale inherent in such a model will not scale properly. The second model introduces a different length scale, which does scale properly, but keeps the mass of the Planck particle as, ± the Planck mass. Moreover we establish a connection between ordinary matter, dark matter, and dark energy, where all three mass densities within the Friedman equation must be interpreted as residual vacuum energies, which only surface, once aggregate matter has formed, at relatively low CMB temperatures. The symmetry of the vacuum will be shown to be broken, because of the different scaling laws, beginning with the formation of elementary particles. Much like waves on an ocean where positive and negative planckion mass densities effectively cancel each other out and form a zero vacuum energy density/zero vacuum pressure surface, these positive mass densities are very small perturbations (anomalies) about the mean. This greatly alleviates, i.e., minimizes the cosmological constant problem, a long standing problem associated with the vacuum.

Crowdsourced Sampling of a Composite Random Variable: Analysis, Simulation, and Experimental Test

A composite random variable is a product (or sum of products) of statistically distributed quantities. Such a variable can represent the solution to a multi-factor quantitative problem submitted to a large, diverse, independent, anonymous group of non-expert respondents (the “crowd”). The objective of this research is to examine the statistical distribution of solutions from a large crowd to a quantitative problem involving image analysis and object counting. Theoretical analysis by the author, covering a range of conditions and types of factor variables, predicts that composite random variables are distributed log-normally to an excellent approximation. If the factors in a problem are themselves distributed log-normally, then their product is rigorously log-normal. A crowdsourcing experiment devised by the author and implemented with the assistance of a BBC (British Broadcasting Corporation) television show, yielded a sample of approximately 2000 responses consistent with a log-normal distribution. The sample mean was within ~12% of the true count. However, a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) of the experiment, employing either normal or log-normal random variables as factors to model the processes by which a crowd of 1 million might arrive at their estimates, resulted in a visually perfect log-normal distribution with a mean response within ~5% of the true count. The results of this research suggest that a well-modeled MCS, by simulating a sample of responses from a large, rational, and incentivized crowd, can provide a more accurate solution to a quantitative problem than might be attainable by direct sampling of a smaller crowd or an uninformed crowd, irrespective of size, that guesses randomly.

Strong Law of Large Numbers for Array of Rowwise AANA Random Variables

In this article, the strong laws of large numbers for array of rowwise asymptotically almost negatively associated(AANA) random variables are studied. Some sufficient conditions for strong laws of large numbers for array of rowwise AANA random variables are presented without assumption of identical distribution. Our results extend the corresponding ones for independent random variables to case of AANA random variables.

Equivalent Conditions of Complete Convergence for Weighted Sums of Sequences of Extended Negatively Dependent Random Variables

By using Rosenthal type moment inequality for extended negatively de- pendent random variables, we establish the equivalent conditions of complete convergence for weighted sums of sequences of extended negatively dependent random variables under more general conditions. These results complement and improve the corresponding results obtained by Li et al. （Li D L, RAO M B, Jiang T F, Wang X C. Complete convergence and almost sure convergence of weighted sums of random variables. J. Theoret. Probab., 1995, 8： 49-76） and Liang （Liang H Y. Complete convergence for weighted sums of negatively associated random variables. Statist. Probab. Lett., 2000, 48： 317-325）.