The principle of middle and long-term earthquake forecast model of spatial and temporal synthesized probability gain and the evaluation of forecast efficiency (R-values) of various forecast methods are introduced in t...The principle of middle and long-term earthquake forecast model of spatial and temporal synthesized probability gain and the evaluation of forecast efficiency (R-values) of various forecast methods are introduced in this paper. The R-value method, developed by Xu (1989), is further developed here, and can be applied to more complicated cases. Probability gains in spatial and/or temporal domains and the R-values for different forecast methods are estimated in North China. The synthesized probability gain is then estimated as an example.展开更多
The researches on the assessment of earthquake forecast are reviewed, then the R-value assessment is further developed theoretically in the paper. The results include the arithmetic of the R-values of earthquake occur...The researches on the assessment of earthquake forecast are reviewed, then the R-value assessment is further developed theoretically in the paper. The results include the arithmetic of the R-values of earthquake occurrence under the condition that 'anomaly' occurred or no 'anomaly' occurred respectively, and the relation between the values. The distribution of Rvalue of a forecast method, corresponding to multi-status anomalies being independent each other, is also developed in the paper. The appropriate methods to estimate the R-values and extrapolate the occurrence probability of future earthquakes are also given in the paper.展开更多
In this paper,the research progress of the Operational Earthquake Forecasting( OEF) is introduced from the major areas of concern,the concept of probability gain,hybrid model development,and the application to earthqu...In this paper,the research progress of the Operational Earthquake Forecasting( OEF) is introduced from the major areas of concern,the concept of probability gain,hybrid model development,and the application to earthquake disaster reduction. Due to the development of OEF based on the global "Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability( CSEP) " plan,it provides a significant technical foundation for earthquake forecast modeling and a practical foundation for solving the actual problems in earthquake preparedness and disaster mitigation. Therefore, related research and technical ideas provide inspirational and referential significance for earthquake forecasting/prediction.展开更多
In this paper we put forward a new concept——the ore of associated gain element. It is thought that the theoretical index forecast of dressing and smelting should be the component part of contents of technological mi...In this paper we put forward a new concept——the ore of associated gain element. It is thought that the theoretical index forecast of dressing and smelting should be the component part of contents of technological mineralogy study. The relative problems of the representativeness of ore sample, the handling of study sample and the choice of test means, and the examination of element existance form in the ore, etc., are discussed.展开更多
文摘The principle of middle and long-term earthquake forecast model of spatial and temporal synthesized probability gain and the evaluation of forecast efficiency (R-values) of various forecast methods are introduced in this paper. The R-value method, developed by Xu (1989), is further developed here, and can be applied to more complicated cases. Probability gains in spatial and/or temporal domains and the R-values for different forecast methods are estimated in North China. The synthesized probability gain is then estimated as an example.
基金a result of a project sponsored by the China Seismological Bureau (95-04-07-04-01).
文摘The researches on the assessment of earthquake forecast are reviewed, then the R-value assessment is further developed theoretically in the paper. The results include the arithmetic of the R-values of earthquake occurrence under the condition that 'anomaly' occurred or no 'anomaly' occurred respectively, and the relation between the values. The distribution of Rvalue of a forecast method, corresponding to multi-status anomalies being independent each other, is also developed in the paper. The appropriate methods to estimate the R-values and extrapolate the occurrence probability of future earthquakes are also given in the paper.
基金sponsored by the 2018 Earthquake Regime Tracking Work of CEA(2018010101)
文摘In this paper,the research progress of the Operational Earthquake Forecasting( OEF) is introduced from the major areas of concern,the concept of probability gain,hybrid model development,and the application to earthquake disaster reduction. Due to the development of OEF based on the global "Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability( CSEP) " plan,it provides a significant technical foundation for earthquake forecast modeling and a practical foundation for solving the actual problems in earthquake preparedness and disaster mitigation. Therefore, related research and technical ideas provide inspirational and referential significance for earthquake forecasting/prediction.
文摘In this paper we put forward a new concept——the ore of associated gain element. It is thought that the theoretical index forecast of dressing and smelting should be the component part of contents of technological mineralogy study. The relative problems of the representativeness of ore sample, the handling of study sample and the choice of test means, and the examination of element existance form in the ore, etc., are discussed.
