Electricity price forecasting using generalized regression neural network based on principal components analysis

A combined model based on principal components analysis (PCA) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) was adopted to forecast electricity price in day-ahead electricity market. PCA was applied to mine the main influence on day-ahead price, avoiding the strong correlation between the input factors that might influence electricity price, such as the load of the forecasting hour, other history loads and prices, weather and temperature; then GRNN was employed to forecast electricity price according to the main information extracted by PCA. To prove the efficiency of the combined model, a case from PJM (Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland) day-ahead electricity market was evaluated. Compared to back-propagation (BP) neural network and standard GRNN, the combined method reduces the mean absolute percentage error about 3%.

Risk based security assessment of power system using generalized regression neural network with feature extraction

A comprehensive risk based security assessment which includes low voltage, line overload and voltage collapse was presented using a relatively new neural network technique called as the generalized regression neural network (GRNN) with incorporation of feature extraction method using principle component analysis. In the risk based security assessment formulation, the failure rate associated to weather condition of each line was used to compute the probability of line outage for a given weather condition and the extent of security violation was represented by a severity function. For low voltage and line overload, continuous severity function was considered due to its ability to zoom in into the effect of near violating contingency. New severity function for voltage collapse using the voltage collapse prediction index was proposed. To reduce the computational burden, a new contingency screening method was proposed using the risk factor so as to select the critical line outages. The risk based security assessment method using GRNN was implemented on a large scale 87-bus power system and the results show that the risk prediction results obtained using GRNN with the incorporation of principal component analysis give better performance in terms of accuracy.

Introducing atmospheric angular momentum into prediction of length of day change by generalized regression neural network model

The general regression neural network(GRNN) model was proposed to model and predict the length of day(LOD) change, which has very complicated time-varying characteristics. Meanwhile, considering that the axial atmospheric angular momentum(AAM) function is tightly correlated with the LOD changes, it was introduced into the GRNN prediction model to further improve the accuracy of prediction. Experiments with the observational data of LOD changes show that the prediction accuracy of the GRNN model is 6.1% higher than that of BP network, and after introducing AAM function, the improvement of prediction accuracy further increases to 14.7%. The results show that the GRNN with AAM function is an effective prediction method for LOD changes.

Performance Prediction of Switched Reluctance Motor using Improved Generalized Regression Neural Networks for Design Optimization

Since practical mathematical model for the design optimization of switched reluctance motor(SRM)is difficult to derive because of the strong nonlinearity,precise prediction of electromagnetic characteristics is of great importance during the optimization procedure.In this paper,an improved generalized regression neural network(GRNN)optimized by fruit fly optimization algorithm(FOA)is proposed for the modeling of SRM that represent the relationship of torque ripple and efficiency with the optimization variables,stator pole arc,rotor pole arc and rotor yoke height.Finite element parametric analysis technology is used to obtain the sample data for GRNN training and verification.Comprehensive comparisons and analysis among back propagation neural network(BPNN),radial basis function neural network(RBFNN),extreme learning machine(ELM)and GRNN is made to test the effectiveness and superiority of FOA-GRNN.

An Approach to Carbon Emissions Prediction Using Generalized Regression Neural Network Improved by Genetic Algorithm

The study on scientific analysis and prediction of China’s future carbon emissions is conducive to balancing the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions in the new era,and actively responding to climate change policy.Through the analysis of the application of the generalized regression neural network(GRNN)in prediction,this paper improved the prediction method of GRNN.Genetic algorithm(GA)was adopted to search the optimal smooth factor as the only factor of GRNN,which was then used for prediction in GRNN.During the prediction of carbon dioxide emissions using the improved method,the increments of data were taken into account.The target values were obtained after the calculation of the predicted results.Finally,compared with the results of GRNN,the improved method realized higher prediction accuracy.It thus offers a new way of predicting total carbon dioxide emissions,and the prediction results can provide macroscopic guidance and decision-making reference for China’s environmental protection and trading of carbon emissions.

Application of generalized regression neural network on fast 3D reconstruction

In robot-assisted surgery projects,researchers should be able to make fast 3D reconstruction. Usually 2D images acquired with common diagnostic equipments such as UT, CT and MRI are not enough and complete for an accurate 3D reconstruction. There are some interpolation methods for approximating non value voxels which consume large execution time. A novel algorithm is introduced based on generalized regression neural network (GRNN) which can interpolate unknown voxles fast and reliable. The GRNN interpolation is used to produce new 2D images between each two succeeding ultrasonic images. It is shown that the composition of GRNN with image distance transformation can produce higher quality 3D shapes. The results of this method are compared with other interpolation methods practically. It shows this method can decrease overall time consumption on online 3D reconstruction.

Parameters optimization for exponentially weighted moving average control chart using generalized regression neural network

As a useful alternative of Shewhart control chart, exponentially weighted moving average （EWMA） control chat has been applied widely to quality control, process monitoring, forecast, etc. In this paper, a method was introduced for optimal design of EWMA and multivariate EWMA （MEWMA） control charts, in which the optimal parameter pair （ λ, k） or （ λ, h ） was searched by using the generalized regression neural network （GRNN）. The results indicate that the optimal parameter pair can be obtained effectively by the proposed strategy for a given in-control average running length （ARLo） and shift to detect under any conditions, removing the drawback of incompleteness existing in the tables that had been reported.

Modelling the impact of climate change on rangeland forage production using a generalized regression neural network:a case study in Isfahan Province,Central Iran

Monitoring of rangeland forage production at specified spatial and temporal scales is necessary for grazing management and also for implementation of rehabilitation projects in rangelands. This study focused on the capability of a generalized regression neural network（GRNN） model combined with GIS techniques to explore the impact of climate change on rangeland forage production. Specifically, a dataset of 115 monitored records of forage production were collected from 16 rangeland sites during the period 1998–2007 in Isfahan Province, Central Iran. Neural network models were designed using the monitored forage production values and available environmental data（including climate and topography data）, and the performance of each network model was assessed using the mean estimation error（MEE）, model efficiency factor（MEF）, and correlation coefficient（r）. The best neural network model was then selected and further applied to predict the forage production of rangelands in the future（in 2030 and 2080） under A1 B climate change scenario using Hadley Centre coupled model. The present and future forage production maps were also produced. Rangeland forage production exhibited strong correlations with environmental factors, such as slope, elevation, aspect and annual temperature. The present forage production in the study area varied from 25.6 to 574.1 kg/hm^2. Under climate change scenario, the annual temperature was predicted to increase and the annual precipitation was predicted to decrease. The prediction maps of forage production in the future indicated that the area with low level of forage production（0–100 kg/hm^2） will increase while the areas with moderate, moderately high and high levels of forage production（≥100 kg/hm^2） will decrease both in 2030 and in 2080, which may be attributable to the increasing annual temperature and decreasing annual precipitation. It was predicted that forage production of rangelands will decrease in the next couple of decades, especially in the western and southern parts of Isfahan Province. These changes are more pronounced in elevations between 2200 and 2900 m. Therefore, rangeland managers have to cope with these changes by holistic management approaches through mitigation and human adaptations.

Forecasting model of residential load based on general regression neural network and PSO-Bayes least squares support vector machine

Firstly,general regression neural network(GRNN) was used for variable selection of key influencing factors of residential load(RL) forecasting.Secondly,the key influencing factors chosen by GRNN were used as the input and output terminals of urban and rural RL for simulating and learning.In addition,the suitable parameters of final model were obtained through applying the evidence theory to combine the optimization results which were calculated with the PSO method and the Bayes theory.Then,the model of PSO-Bayes least squares support vector machine(PSO-Bayes-LS-SVM) was established.A case study was then provided for the learning and testing.The empirical analysis results show that the mean square errors of urban and rural RL forecast are 0.02% and 0.04%,respectively.At last,taking a specific province RL in China as an example,the forecast results of RL from 2011 to 2015 were obtained.

Prediction of Water Table Based on General Regression Neural Network

Traditional methods for water table prediction have such defects as extensive calculation and reliance on the presupposition of a homogeneous and regular aquifer.Based on the fundamentals of the general regression neural network(GRNN),this article sets up a GRNN model for water level prediction.Case study indicates that this model,even with limited information,has satisfactory prediction accuracy,which,coupled with a simple model structure and relatively high calculation efficiency,mean a vast application prospect for the model.

改进的MVO-GRNN神经网络岩爆预测模型研究

准确预测岩爆烈度等级能有效指导岩爆灾害的防控。根据影响岩爆发生及烈度等级的3个因素构建岩爆评价指标体系,提出一种基于改进多元宇宙算法(Improved Multi-Verse Optimizer,IMVO)优化广义回归神经网络(General Regression Neural Network,GRNN)的岩爆预测模型。在普通多元宇宙算法(MVO)的基础上,运用自适应平衡机制调节MVO算法中的虫洞存在概率(V_(WEP))和旅行距离率(V_(TDR))两个重要参数来改进该算法;再运用改进的多元宇宙算法优化广义回归神经网络的光滑度,通过训练数据优选出最佳光滑因子σ,得到IMVO-GRNN神经网络岩爆烈度预测模型;最后结合工程实例验证模型的性能。研究表明,该模型相比传统模型寻优能力更强,精度更高,为岩爆预测提供了一种新的思路。

Underwater Positioning Based on an Artificial Lateral Line and a Generalized Regression Neural Network

Taking advantage of the lateral line organ, fish can navigate, feed, and avoid predators and obstacles by sensing surrounding flow fields. The lateral line organ provides an important reference for the development of new underwater detection technology. Inspired by the lateral line organ, in this paper, for the sake of localizing the target dipole source in three-dimensional underwater space, an artificial lateral line consisting of nine underwater pressure sensors forming a cross-shaped sensor array is applied. Combined with the method of gener- alized regression neural network, which is suitable for solving nonlinear pattern recognition problems, a corresponding experimental platform has been built to sample data for training the neural network from a 12 cm by 12 cm by 24 cm cuboid space. The experimental results indicate that the cross-shaped artificial lateral line can localize the target dipole source two body-lengths away. The well- performing perceptual distance is below 13 cm away from the sensing array. Moreover, decreasing the data sampling interval and in- creasing the number of sensors utilized can help improve the positioning accuracy.

Short-term Load Forecasting of Regional Distribution Network Based on Generalized Regression Neural Network Optimized by Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm

Short-term load forecasting of regional distribution network is the key to the economic operation of smart distribution systems,which not only requires high accuracy and fast calculation speed,but also has a diversity of influential factors and strong randomness.This paper proposes a short-term load forecasting model for regional distribution network combining the maximum information coefficient,factor analysis,gray wolf optimization,and generalized regression neural network(MIC-FA-GWO-GRNN).To screen and decrease the dimension of the multiple-input features of the short-term load forecasting model,MIC is first used to quantify the non-linear correlation between the load and input features,and to eliminate the ineffective features,and then FA is used to reduce the dimension of the screened input features on the premise of preserving the main information of input features.After that the high-precision short-term丨oad forecasting based on GWO-GRNN model is realized.GRNN is used to regressively analyze the input features after screening and dimension reduction,and the parameter of GRNN is optimized by using the GWO,which has strong global searching ability and fast convergence.Finally a case study of a regional distribution network in Tianjin,China verifies the accuracy and applicability of the proposed forecasting model.

基于GRNN-MC的变压器振动信号预测

变压器振动信号是评估其工作状态的重要参数之一,与绕组松动或变形等隐患密切相关,为揭示变压器振动信号的变化趋势,本文提出了一种基于广义回归神经网络和马尔科夫链修正的变压器振动信号预测方法。即分别以变压器运行电压、负载电流和振动信号归一化特征频率为输入和输出建立变压器振动信号广义回归神经网络预测模型,然后引入马尔科夫链并结合负载电流的变化对振动信号计算结果进行修正以获得最终的预测结果。对某500 kV变压器振动在线监测信号的分析结果表明:经马尔科夫链修正后的变压器广义回归神经网络振动信号预测模型预测精度高,可为变压器绕组运行状态的振动监测技术提供重要参考。

Short-term traffic forecasting based on principal component analysis and a generalized regression neural network for satellite networks

With the rapid growth of satellite traffic, the ability to forecast traffic loads becomes vital for improving data transmission efficiency and resource management in satellite networks. To precisely forecast the short-term traffic loads in satellite networks, a forecasting algorithm based on principal component analysis and a generalized regression neural network （PCA-GRNN） is proposed. The PCA-GRNN algorithm exploits the hidden regularity of satellite networks and fully considers both the temporal and spatial correlations of satellite traffic. Specifically, it selects optimal time series of spatio-temporally correlated historical traffic from satellites as forecasting inputs and applies principal component analysis to reduce the input dimensions while preserving the main features of the data. Then, a generalized regression neural network is utilized to perform the final short-term load forecasting based on the obtained principal components. The PCA-GRNN algorithm is evaluated based on real-world traffic traces, and the results show that the PCA-GRNN method achieves a higher forecasting accuracy, has a shorter training time and is more robust than other state-of-the-art algorithms, even for incomplete traffic datasets. Therefore, the PCA- GRNN algorithm can be regarded as a preferred solution for use in real-time traffic forecasting for realistic satellite networks.

QSAR study on estrogenic activity of structurally diverse compounds using generalized regression neural network

Computer-based quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model has been becoming a pow- erful tool in understanding the structural requirements for chemicals to bind the estrogen receptor (ER), designing drugs for human estrogen replacement therapy, and identifying potential estrogenic endo- crine disruptors. In this study, a simple yet powerful neural network technique, generalized regression neural network (GRNN) was used to develop a QSAR model based on 131 structurally diverse estro- gens (training set). Only nine descriptors calculated solely from the molecular structures of com- pounds selected by objective and subjective feature selections were used as inputs of the GRNN model. The predictive power of the built model was found to be comparable to that of the more traditional techniques but requiring significantly easy implementation and a shorter computation-time. The ob- tained result indicates that the proposed GRNN model is robust and satisfactory, and can provide a feasible and practical tool for the rapid screening of the estrogenic activity of organic compounds.

Term Structure of Interest Rates Based on Artificial Neural Network

In light of the nonlinear approaching capability of artificial neural networks （ ANN）, the term structure of interest rates is predicted using The generalized regression neural network （GRNN） and back propagation （BP） neural networks models. The prediction performance is measured with US interest rate data. Then, RBF and BP models are compared with Vasicek＇s model and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross （CIR） model. The comparison reveals that neural network models outperform Vasicek＇s model and CIR model, which are more precise and closer to the real market situation.

基于SSA-GRNN的汽油机过渡工况进气流量预测研究

针对过渡工况下汽油机进气流量预测难度较高的问题,构建了一种基于麻雀搜索算法(SSA)优化广义回归神经网络(GRNN)的进气流量预测模型。该模型利用SSA算法对GRNN的平滑因子进行寻优辨识,并采用斯皮尔曼法和对比分析法提取模型的特征参数,以达到较好的预测精度和泛化性能。运用过渡工况进气流量样本数据对模型进行训练和预测,结果表明:在加减速工况下,SSA-GRNN模型预测值的平均相对误差均小于1%;相较于BP、RBF和GA-SVR进气流量预测模型,SSA-GRNN模型具有更高的预测精度和泛化性能,更加适用于汽油机过渡工况进气流量的预测。

基于PSO-GRNN的含钛高炉渣活化焙烧浸出成分预测模型

活化焙烧是一种回收利用含钛高炉渣中钛资源的新方法。为通过反应条件快速获得回收渣中成分含量,建立了基于粒子群优化的广义回归神经网络(PSO-GRNN)预测模型。借助斯皮尔曼(Spearman)相关性分析筛选特征变量作为模型输入,利用PSO优化GRNN神经网络的权重与节点阈值,通过与偏最小二乘回归(PLS)、随机森林(RF)以及支持向量回归(SVR)算法的对比,确定了提出模型的优势。研究结果表明,PSO-GRNN具有最小的RMSE和最大的R2,表明在该数据集上所设计的PSO-GRNN有最佳的模型性能,可以为后续实验或工业应用提供一定的指导。

基于改进GWO-GRNN的管道焊缝三维重构测量

为提高双目相机不同位姿下焊缝的三维重构测量精度,提出一种基于立体视觉图像误差补偿的管道焊缝三维重构测量方法。采用改进灰狼算法(IGWO)优化广义回归神经网络(GRNN)补偿焊缝三维重构图像点的坐标误差。采用混沌映射、非线性收敛因子和最优记忆保存思想对GWO算法进行改进,通过8个标准测试函数进行仿真验证;利用优化后的GRNN模型对图像点坐标误差进行预测和补偿,计算三维坐标重构出焊缝点云,三维测量焊缝的焊宽、余高和长度。试验结果表明:该模型在双目相机不同的位姿状态下都能较准确地实现焊缝的三维重构,焊缝的三维测量相对误差在0.9%以内。