The risk evaluation of power transmission and transformation projects is a complex and comprehensive evaluation process influenced by many factors and involves many indicators.In order to solve the uncertainty and fuz...The risk evaluation of power transmission and transformation projects is a complex and comprehensive evaluation process influenced by many factors and involves many indicators.In order to solve the uncertainty and fuzziness problems in the process of the multilevel fuzzy risk evaluation of power transmission and transformation projects,this paper introduces the cloud theory,which is specialized in the study of uncertainty problems and constructs the multilevel fuzzy comprehensive risk-evaluation model of power transmission and transformation projects based on the improved multilevel fuzzy-thought weighting based on the cloud model.Finally,the risk of the Beijing 220-kV Tangyu power transmission and transformation project is evaluated and the feasibility of the evaluation model is verified.The results of the evaluation and the evaluation layer cloud model are combined with MATLAB simulation to show that the risk level of the project is between large risk and general risk.展开更多
为从系统整体角度完成对起落架收放系统的风险辨识和影响分析,将系统理论过程分析(Systematic Theory Process Analysis,STPA)与决策实验室分析-解释结构模型(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Interpretive Structural...为从系统整体角度完成对起落架收放系统的风险辨识和影响分析,将系统理论过程分析(Systematic Theory Process Analysis,STPA)与决策实验室分析-解释结构模型(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Interpretive Structural Modeling,DEMATEL-ISM)相结合来开展分析。首先,定义事故和系统级危险,以民机进近阶段放下起落架为例,运用STPA完成对风险因素的系统化辨识;其次,基于最大平均熵减(Maximum Mean De-entropy,MMDE)算法帮助DEMATEL-ISM模型确定阈值,完成对风险因素影响的重要性分析并识别可能引发系统级危险的风险传递路径,据此挖掘关键致因场景,以给出风险预防建议。结果显示:线路性能退化或失效、位置作动控制组件(Position Action Control Unit,PACU)核心处理器故障为关键原因因素,收放作动筒作动异常、机组成员操作不当、起落架指示灯显示异常、起落架液压选择阀作动异常、PACU信息接收有误为关键结果因素,这些因素均涉及多条可能引发系统级危险的风险传递路径,应予以重点控制。展开更多
In order to improve the safety management of urban gas transmission and distribution system, failure mode and effects analysis （FMEA） was used to construct the reliability analysis system of the pipeline network. To...In order to improve the safety management of urban gas transmission and distribution system, failure mode and effects analysis （FMEA） was used to construct the reliability analysis system of the pipeline network. To solve the problem of subjectivity and uncertainty of the multi-expert decision making, the correlation operator was introduced into the calculation of the risk priority number （RPN）. Using FMEA along with weight analysis and expert investigation approach, the FMEA evaluation table was given, including five failure modes, risk priority numbers, failure causes and effects, as well as corrective actions. The results show that correlation operator can directly process the linguistic terms and quantify the priority of the risks.展开更多
为实现对±800 k V直流输电线路雷害风险快速、准确的评估,从绕击计算模型及评估参数计算方法等方面进行研究,确定杆塔雷击最小放电路径应为导线到横担和塔身距离中的较小者;采用左/右地面倾角值多点、独立计算提高地形地貌参数精度...为实现对±800 k V直流输电线路雷害风险快速、准确的评估,从绕击计算模型及评估参数计算方法等方面进行研究,确定杆塔雷击最小放电路径应为导线到横担和塔身距离中的较小者;采用左/右地面倾角值多点、独立计算提高地形地貌参数精度;提出以6 km×6 km网格大小对±800 k V线路雷电参数进行分块,来获取正、负极性地闪密度值NGP、NGN,并推荐以雷电地闪2 000次为阀值拟合获得雷电流幅值累积概率分布计算式,其较单一分布公式更加精细;提出单基杆塔计算模型中"极性效应"权重系数值αN=0.91、βN=0.09,αP=0、βP=1;提出的±800k V直流输电线路雷害风险评估方法可达到全长2 058.6 km、4 240基杆塔线路的快速评估要求,评估结果表明特高压直流线路雷击跳闸率计算值和实际运行值虽均满足实际雷击跳闸率控制参考值,但仍存在雷害风险高、雷害防御能力相对薄弱区段。其中,高风险杆塔共649基,占比15.3%,此类杆塔应作为后期运维及治理的主要对象。展开更多
文摘The risk evaluation of power transmission and transformation projects is a complex and comprehensive evaluation process influenced by many factors and involves many indicators.In order to solve the uncertainty and fuzziness problems in the process of the multilevel fuzzy risk evaluation of power transmission and transformation projects,this paper introduces the cloud theory,which is specialized in the study of uncertainty problems and constructs the multilevel fuzzy comprehensive risk-evaluation model of power transmission and transformation projects based on the improved multilevel fuzzy-thought weighting based on the cloud model.Finally,the risk of the Beijing 220-kV Tangyu power transmission and transformation project is evaluated and the feasibility of the evaluation model is verified.The results of the evaluation and the evaluation layer cloud model are combined with MATLAB simulation to show that the risk level of the project is between large risk and general risk.
文摘为从系统整体角度完成对起落架收放系统的风险辨识和影响分析,将系统理论过程分析(Systematic Theory Process Analysis,STPA)与决策实验室分析-解释结构模型(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Interpretive Structural Modeling,DEMATEL-ISM)相结合来开展分析。首先,定义事故和系统级危险,以民机进近阶段放下起落架为例,运用STPA完成对风险因素的系统化辨识;其次,基于最大平均熵减(Maximum Mean De-entropy,MMDE)算法帮助DEMATEL-ISM模型确定阈值,完成对风险因素影响的重要性分析并识别可能引发系统级危险的风险传递路径,据此挖掘关键致因场景,以给出风险预防建议。结果显示:线路性能退化或失效、位置作动控制组件(Position Action Control Unit,PACU)核心处理器故障为关键原因因素,收放作动筒作动异常、机组成员操作不当、起落架指示灯显示异常、起落架液压选择阀作动异常、PACU信息接收有误为关键结果因素,这些因素均涉及多条可能引发系统级危险的风险传递路径,应予以重点控制。
文摘In order to improve the safety management of urban gas transmission and distribution system, failure mode and effects analysis （FMEA） was used to construct the reliability analysis system of the pipeline network. To solve the problem of subjectivity and uncertainty of the multi-expert decision making, the correlation operator was introduced into the calculation of the risk priority number （RPN）. Using FMEA along with weight analysis and expert investigation approach, the FMEA evaluation table was given, including five failure modes, risk priority numbers, failure causes and effects, as well as corrective actions. The results show that correlation operator can directly process the linguistic terms and quantify the priority of the risks.
