Shoreline Change Modeling on Emergency Beach Nourishment Project on West Beach of Beidaihe,China

By use of a shorehne-change numerical model （GENESIS） based on one-line theory, a preliminary modeling study on shoreline changes caused by a beach nourishment project in Beidaihe, China, is presented in this paper. Firstly, the GENESIS model is verified and model sensitivity to the major parameter changes is discussed by simulating a hydraulic model test. The beach nourishment project, after that the shoreline change is kept being monitored, is a small-scale emergency one carried out to use two bathing places on the west beach in the summer, 2008. In this paper the shoreline changes caused by the beach nourishment project are modeled by the GENESIS model, and the computed results fit well with the measured shorelines. With the same model and parameters, a long-term performance of the project is predicted, and the result shows that the bathing places only can be suitable for bathing in 2 to 3 years without subsequence nourishment project. Therefore, it is proposed to nourish the beaches in time to keep the service life of the beach in recent years and carry out the beach nourishment project for the whole west beach as soon as possible.

STOCHASTIC SIMULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC REGION WITH CLASSIFICATION MODEL

Accurate simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is a prerequisite for tropical cyclone risk assessment.Against the spatial characteristics of tropical cyclone tracks in the Northwest Pacific region,stochastic simulation method based on classification model is used to simulate tropical cyclone tracks in this region.Such simulation includes the classification method,the genesis model,the traveling model,and the lysis model.Tropical cyclone tracks in the Northwest Pacific region are classified into five categories on the basis of its movement characteristics and steering positions.In the genesis model,Gaussian kernel probability density functions with the biased cross validation method are used to simulate the annual occurrence number and genesis positions.The traveling model is established on the basis of the mean and mean square error of the historical 6 h latitude and longitude displacements.The termination probability is used as the discrimination standard in the lysis model.Then,this stochastic simulation method of tropical cyclone tracks is applied and qualitatively evaluated with different diagnostics.Results show that the tropical cyclone tracks in Northwest Pacific can be satisfactorily simulated with this classification model.

Status and Trends in Research on Deep-Water Gravity Flow Deposits

Deep-water gravity flows are one of the most important sediment transport mechanisms on Earth. After 60 years of study, significant achievements have been made in terms of classification schemes, genetic mechanisms, and depositional models of deep-water gravity flows. The research history of deep-water gravity flows can be divided into five stages： incipience of turbidity current theory; formation of turbidity current theory; development of deep-water gravity flow theory; improvement and perfection of deep-water gravity flow theory; and comprehensive development of deep-water gravity flow theory. Currently, three primary classification schemes based on the sediment support mechanism, the rheology and transportation process, and the integration of sediment support mechanisms, rheology, sedimentary characteristics, and flow state are commonly used.Different types of deep-water gravity flow events form different types of gravity flow deposits. Sediment slump retransportation mainly forms muddy debris flows, sandy debris flows, and surge-like turbidity currents. Resuspension of deposits by storms leads to quasi-steady hyperpycnal turbidity currents （hyperpycnal flows）. Sustainable sediment supplies mainly generate muddy debris flows, sandy debris flows, and hyperpycnal flows. Deep-water fans, which are commonly controlled by debris flows and hyperpycnal flows, are triggered by sustainable sediment supply; in contrast, deep-water slope sedimentary deposits consist mainly of debris flows that are triggered by the retransportation of sediment slumps and deep-water fine-grained sedimentary deposits are derived primarily from fine- grained hyperpycnal flows that are triggered by the resuspension of storm deposits. Harmonization of classification schemes, transformation between different types of gravity flow deposit, and monitoring and reproduction of the sedimentary processes of deep-water gravity flows as well as a source-to-sink approach to document the evolution and deposition of deep-water gravity flows are the most important research aspects for future studies of deep-water gravity flows study in the future.