By combining conventional grey correlation analysis, grey clustering method and grey forecasting methods with our multi-goal forecast thoughts and the techniques of grey time series processing, we develop six differen...By combining conventional grey correlation analysis, grey clustering method and grey forecasting methods with our multi-goal forecast thoughts and the techniques of grey time series processing, we develop six different grey earthquake forecast models in this paper. Using the record of major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1995, we forecast future earthquakes in Japan. We develop an earthquake forecast model. By using the major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1984, we forecast earthquakes from 1985 to 1995 and check the precision of the grey earthquake models. We find that the grey system theory can be applied to earthquake forecast. We introduce the above analysis methods and give a real example to evaluate and forecast. We also further discuss the problems of how to improve the precision of earthquake forecast and how to strengthen the forecast models in future research.展开更多
In the following sub-sections,studies of solar-heliospheric effects on cosmic rays,investigating a possible link between cosmic ray flux and Earth’s climate,and detection of MeV-rangeγ-rays from thunderstorms with t...In the following sub-sections,studies of solar-heliospheric effects on cosmic rays,investigating a possible link between cosmic ray flux and Earth’s climate,and detection of MeV-rangeγ-rays from thunderstorms with the data from LHAASO will be discussed;geophysical research with environmental neutrons will be introduced,and some Monte Carlo simulation results about effects of thunderstorm electric fields on LHAASO observations of cosmic rays will be given.展开更多
文摘By combining conventional grey correlation analysis, grey clustering method and grey forecasting methods with our multi-goal forecast thoughts and the techniques of grey time series processing, we develop six different grey earthquake forecast models in this paper. Using the record of major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1995, we forecast future earthquakes in Japan. We develop an earthquake forecast model. By using the major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1984, we forecast earthquakes from 1985 to 1995 and check the precision of the grey earthquake models. We find that the grey system theory can be applied to earthquake forecast. We introduce the above analysis methods and give a real example to evaluate and forecast. We also further discuss the problems of how to improve the precision of earthquake forecast and how to strengthen the forecast models in future research.
基金Supported in China by National Natural Science Foundation(NSFC)(12047576,U2031101,11475141)the National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFA0404201,2018YFA0404202)in Thailand by the Thailand Science Research and Innovation(RTA6280002)。
文摘In the following sub-sections,studies of solar-heliospheric effects on cosmic rays,investigating a possible link between cosmic ray flux and Earth’s climate,and detection of MeV-rangeγ-rays from thunderstorms with the data from LHAASO will be discussed;geophysical research with environmental neutrons will be introduced,and some Monte Carlo simulation results about effects of thunderstorm electric fields on LHAASO observations of cosmic rays will be given.
