The formation of convective flows in a rotating cylindrical layer with an inclined bottom and free surface is studied.Convection is driven by localized cooling at the center of the upper free surface and by rim heatin...The formation of convective flows in a rotating cylindrical layer with an inclined bottom and free surface is studied.Convection is driven by localized cooling at the center of the upper free surface and by rim heating at the bottom near the sidewall.The horizontal temperature difference in a rotating layer leads to the formation of a convective flow with a complex structure.The mean meridional circulation,consisting of three cells,provides a strongly non-uniform differential rotation.As a result of the instability of the main cyclonic zonal flow,the train of baroclinic waves appears in the upper layer.The baroclinic waves provide most of the heat transfer in the middle radii and are responsible for strong temperature and velocity fluctuations.It is shown that the inclination of the bottom is a crucial factor for the structure of the convective cells and the dynamics of the baroclinic waves.The increase in the inclination angle leads to a significant increase in the energy of the waves.The obtained results may be important for heat and mass transfer in various geophysical and industrial systems,including transport of various additives and impurities in rotating crucibles,and crystallization processes.展开更多
To investigate the interaction between the tropical Pacific and China seas a variable-grid global ocean circulation model with fine grid covering the area from 20°S to 50°N and from 99° to 150°E is...To investigate the interaction between the tropical Pacific and China seas a variable-grid global ocean circulation model with fine grid covering the area from 20°S to 50°N and from 99° to 150°E is developed. Numerical computation of the annually cyclic circulation fields is performed. The results of the annual mean zonal currents and deep to abyssal western boundary currents in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are reported. The North Equatorial Current,the North Equatorial Countercurrent, the South Equatorial Current and the Equatorial Undercurrent are fairly well simulated. The model well reproduces the northward flowing abyssal western boundary current.From the model results a lower deep western boundary current east of the Bismarck-Solomon-New Hebrides Island chain at depths around 2 000 m has been found. The model results also show that the currents in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have multi-layer structures both in zonal currents and western boundary currents, indicating that the global ocean overturning thermohaline circulation appears of multi-layer pattern.展开更多
Profiles of the Martian dayside ionosphere can be used to derive the neutral atmospheric densities at 130 km,which can also be obtained from the Mars Climate Database(MCD)and spacecraft aerobraking observations.In thi...Profiles of the Martian dayside ionosphere can be used to derive the neutral atmospheric densities at 130 km,which can also be obtained from the Mars Climate Database(MCD)and spacecraft aerobraking observations.In this research,we explain the method used to calculate neutral densities at 130 km via ionosphere observations and three long-period 130-km neutral density data sets at northern high latitudes(latitudes>60°)acquired through ionospheric data measured by the Mars Global Surveyor(MGS)Radio Occultation Experiment.The calculated 130-km neutral density data,along with 130-km density data from the aerobraking observations of the MGS and Mars Odyssey(ODY)in the northern high latitudes,were compared with MCD outputs at the same latitude,longitude,altitude,solar latitude,and local time.The 130-km density data derived from both the ionospheric profiles and aerobraking observations were found to show seasonal variations similar to those in the MCD data.With a negative shift of about 2×10^10 cm^−3,the corrected 130-km neutral densities derived from MCD v4.3 were consistent with those obtained from the two different observations.This result means that(1)the method used to derive the 130-km neutral densities with ionospheric profiles was effective,(2)the MCD v4.3 data sets generally overestimated the 130-km neutral densities at high latitudes,and(3)the neutral density observations from the MGS Radio Science Experiment could be used to calibrate a new atmospheric model of Mars.展开更多
The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) underwent an interdecadal variation with interannual variations during the period from 1958 to 1997, its index tended to decline from a higher stage in the mid-1960,s until it rea...The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) underwent an interdecadal variation with interannual variations during the period from 1958 to 1997, its index tended to decline from a higher stage in the mid-1960,s until it reached a lower stage after 1980/s. Correlation analysis reveals that EASM is closely related with the global atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). The differences between the weak and strong stage of EASM shows that, the summer monsoon circulation over East Asia and North Africa is sharply weakened, in the meantime, the westerlies in high latitudes and the trade-wind over the tropical ocean are also changed significantly. Over the most regions south of the northern subtropics, both air temperature in the lower troposphere and SST tended to rise compared with the strong stage of EASM. It is also revealed that the ocean-atmosphere interaction over the western Pacific and Indian Ocean plays a key role in interannual to interdecadal variation of EASM, most probably, the subtropical indian Ocean is more important. On the other hand, the ENSO event is less related to EASM at least during the concerned period.展开更多
Based on the three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation(TPDGAC), this study investigates the double-layer structure of the Hadley circulation(HC) and its interdecadal evolution characteristics by us...Based on the three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation(TPDGAC), this study investigates the double-layer structure of the Hadley circulation(HC) and its interdecadal evolution characteristics by using monthly horizontal wind field from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1948—2011. The following major conclusions are drawn: First, the double-layer structure of the HC is an objective fact, and it constantly exists in April,May, June, October and November in the Southern Hemisphere. Second, the double-layer structure is more obvious in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere. Since the double-layer structure is sloped in the vertical direction, it should be taken into consideration when analyzing the variations of the strength and location of the center of the HC.Third, the strength of the double-layer structure of the HC in the Southern Hemisphere consistently exhibits decadal variations with a strong, weak and strong pattern in all five months(April, May, June, October, and November), with cycles of 20-30 a and 40-60 a. Fourth, the center of the HC(mean position of the double-layer structure) in the Southern Hemisphere consistently and remarkably shifts southward in all the five months. The net poleward shifts over the 64 years are 5.18°, 2.11°, 2.50°, 1.79° and 5.76° for the five respective months, with a mean shift of 3.47°.展开更多
The annual mean volume and heat transport sketches through the inter-basin passages and transoceanic sections have been constructed based on 1400-year spin up results of the MOM4p 1. The spin up starts from a state of...The annual mean volume and heat transport sketches through the inter-basin passages and transoceanic sections have been constructed based on 1400-year spin up results of the MOM4p 1. The spin up starts from a state of rest, driven by the monthly climatological mean force from the NOAAWorld Ocean Atlas (1994). The volume transport sketch reveals the northward transport throughout the Pacific and southward transport at all latitudes in the Atlantic. The annual mean strength of the Pacific-Arctic-Atlantic through flow is 0.63x106 m3/s in the Bering Strait. The majority of the northward volume transport in the southern Pacific turns into the Indonesian through flow (ITF) and joins the Indian Ocean equatorial current, which subse- quently flows out southward from the Mozambique Channel, with its majority superimposed on the Ant- arctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). This anti-cyclonic circulation around Australia has a strength of 11 x 106 ms /s according to the model-produced result. The atmospheric fresh water transport, known as P-E^R (pre- cipitation minus evaporation plus runoff), constructs a complement to the horizontal volume transport of the ocean. The annual mean heat transport sketch exhibits a northward heat transport in the Atlantic and poleward heat transport in the global ocean. The surface heat flux acts as a complement to the horizontal heat transport of the ocean. The climatological volume transports describe the most important features through the inter-basin passages and in the associated basins, including: the positive P-E+R in the Arctic substantially strengthening the East Greenland Current in summer; semiannual variability of the volume transport in the Drake Passage and the southern Atlantic-Indian Ocean passage; and annual transport vari- ability of the ITF intensifying in the boreal summer. The climatological heat transports show heat storage in July and heat deficit in January in the Arctic; heat storage in January and heat deficit in July in the Antarctic circumpolar current regime (ACCR); and intensified heat transport of the iTF in July. The volume transport of the ITF is synchronous with the volume transport through the southern Indo-Pacific sections, but the year-long southward heat transport of the ITF is out of phase with the heat transport through the equatorial Pacific, which is northward before May and southward after May. This clarifies the majority of the ITF origi- natinR from the southern Pacific Ocean.展开更多
The objective of this study is to model the mean and seasonal mass transportof the Pacific to Indian O-cean throughflow using variable-grid global Ocean General CirculationModel (OGCM) with fine grid (1°/6) cover...The objective of this study is to model the mean and seasonal mass transportof the Pacific to Indian O-cean throughflow using variable-grid global Ocean General CirculationModel (OGCM) with fine grid (1°/6) covering the area from 20°S to 60°N and from 98°E to 156°E.The computations show that Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) mass transport, computed as a sum ofthrough-strait transport, has maximum transport in Sept. (17. 5Sv) and minimum transport in Jan. (9.5Sv). The annual mean ITF transport amounts to 14. 5Sv. Twenty-two percent of this transport passesthrough Lombok Strait. Sixty-five percent of this transport passes through Timor Passage.Semi-annual variability is apparent in Lombok and Ombai Straits while annual variability is apparentin Timor Passage.展开更多
This paper reviews the three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation(3P-DGAC)developed in recent years,including the decomposition model and the dynamical equations of global horizontal,meridional,and ...This paper reviews the three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation(3P-DGAC)developed in recent years,including the decomposition model and the dynamical equations of global horizontal,meridional,and zonal circulations.Compared with the traditional two-dimensional(2D)circulation decomposition method,the 3P-DGAC can effectively decompose the actual vertical vorticity into two components that are caused by the horizontal circulation and convergent/divergent movement(associated with the meridional and zonal circulations).It also decomposes the vertical velocity into the components of the meridional vertical circulation and the zonal vertical circulation,thus providing a new method to study the dynamical influences of convergent/divergent motions on the evolution of actual vertical vorticity and an accurate description of local vertical circulations.The 3P-DGAC is a three-dimensional(3D)circulation decomposition method based on the main characteristics of the actual atmospheric movements.The horizontal,meridional,and zonal circulations after the 3P-DGAC are the global generalization of Rossby waves in the middle-high latitudes and Hadley and Walker circulations in low latitudes.Therefore,the three-pattern decomposition model and its dynamical equations provide novel theoretical tools for studying complex interactions between middle-high and low latitude circulations as well as the physical mechanisms of the abnormal evolution of large-scale atmospheric circulations under the background of global warming.展开更多
Nonpoint source pollution from agriculture is the main source of nitrogen and phosphorus in the stream systems of the Corn Belt region in the Midwestern US.The eastern part of this region is comprised of the Ohio-Tenn...Nonpoint source pollution from agriculture is the main source of nitrogen and phosphorus in the stream systems of the Corn Belt region in the Midwestern US.The eastern part of this region is comprised of the Ohio-Tennessee River Basin(OTRB),which is considered a key contributing area for water pollution and the Northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone.A point of crucial importance in this basin is therefore how intensive corn-based cropping systems for food and fuel production can be sustainable and coexist with a healthy water environment,not only under existing climate but also under climate change conditions in the future.To address this issue,a OTRB integrated modeling system has been built with a greatly refined 12-digit subbasin structure based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)water quality model,which is capable of estimating landscape and in-stream water and pollutant yields in response to a wide array of alternative cropping and/or management strategies and climatic conditions.The effects of three agricultural management scenarios on crop production and pollutant loads exported from the crop land of the OTRB to streams and rivers were evaluated:(1)expansion of continuous corn across the entire basin,(2)adoption of no-till on all corn and soybean fields in the region,(3)implementation of a winter cover crop within the baseline rotations.The effects of each management scenario were evaluated both for current climate and projected mid-century(2046-2065)climates from seven global circulation models(GCMs).In both present and future climates each management scenario resulted in reduced erosion and nutrient loadings to surface water bodies compared to the baseline agricultural management,with cover crops causing the highest water pollution reduction.Corn and soybean yields in the region were negligibly influenced from the agricultural management scenarios.On the other hand,both water quality and crop yield numbers under climate change deviated considerably for all seven GCMs compared to the baseline climate.Future climates from all GCMs led to decreased corn and soybean yields by up to 20%on a mean annual basis,while water quality alterations were either positive or negative depending on the GCM.The study highlights the loss of productivity in the eastern Corn Belt under climate change,the need to consider a range of GCMs when assessing impacts of climate change,and the value of SWAT as a tool to analyze the effects of climate change on parameters of interest at the basin scale.展开更多
We use 71-yr(1948–2018) reanalysis data to investigate the interdecadal variation in the atmospheric heat source(Q1) over the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding Asian monsoon region(AMTP) and its effect on the Northern ...We use 71-yr(1948–2018) reanalysis data to investigate the interdecadal variation in the atmospheric heat source(Q1) over the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding Asian monsoon region(AMTP) and its effect on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation. The large-scale circulation driven by Q1 over the AMTP is characterized by a center of convergent(divergent) or low(high) potential wind function in the lower(upper) troposphere. Q1 over the AMTP shows a clear interdecadal variation(with positive–negative–positive phases) and these three phases correspond to the time periods 1948–1972, 1973–2005, and 2006–2018, respectively. The thermal circulation has a corresponding interdecadal variation as a response to the interdecadal variation in Q1. An enhanced Q1 leads to an increase in the conversion of the total potential energy to non-divergent wind kinetic energy via the divergent wind velocity. The maximum conversion occurs in the tropopause. The primary thermal forcing for Q1 is produced by the intense, large volume precipitation of the summer monsoon. This induces a response in the large-scale circulation, leading to largescale divergence patterns. The synergistic effects of Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) influence Q1 over the AMTP, which is ultimately responsible for the modulation of variations in the global divergent circulation. The global divergent circulation in summer is therefore essentially a direct thermodynamic circulation driven by the strong Q1 over the AMTP.展开更多
基金supported by Russian Science Foundation Grant RSF-22-21-00572(https://rscf.ru/project/22-21-00572/).
文摘The formation of convective flows in a rotating cylindrical layer with an inclined bottom and free surface is studied.Convection is driven by localized cooling at the center of the upper free surface and by rim heating at the bottom near the sidewall.The horizontal temperature difference in a rotating layer leads to the formation of a convective flow with a complex structure.The mean meridional circulation,consisting of three cells,provides a strongly non-uniform differential rotation.As a result of the instability of the main cyclonic zonal flow,the train of baroclinic waves appears in the upper layer.The baroclinic waves provide most of the heat transfer in the middle radii and are responsible for strong temperature and velocity fluctuations.It is shown that the inclination of the bottom is a crucial factor for the structure of the convective cells and the dynamics of the baroclinic waves.The increase in the inclination angle leads to a significant increase in the energy of the waves.The obtained results may be important for heat and mass transfer in various geophysical and industrial systems,including transport of various additives and impurities in rotating crucibles,and crystallization processes.
基金This study is supported by the National Natural Sci-ence Foundation of China under contract No.40136010the Major State Basic Research Program of China under contract No.G1999043808the Youth Fund of National“863”Project of China under contract No.2002AA639350.
文摘To investigate the interaction between the tropical Pacific and China seas a variable-grid global ocean circulation model with fine grid covering the area from 20°S to 50°N and from 99° to 150°E is developed. Numerical computation of the annually cyclic circulation fields is performed. The results of the annual mean zonal currents and deep to abyssal western boundary currents in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are reported. The North Equatorial Current,the North Equatorial Countercurrent, the South Equatorial Current and the Equatorial Undercurrent are fairly well simulated. The model well reproduces the northward flowing abyssal western boundary current.From the model results a lower deep western boundary current east of the Bismarck-Solomon-New Hebrides Island chain at depths around 2 000 m has been found. The model results also show that the currents in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have multi-layer structures both in zonal currents and western boundary currents, indicating that the global ocean overturning thermohaline circulation appears of multi-layer pattern.
基金funded by the National Science Foundation of China(NSFC,no.41674175)supported by the preresearch Project on Civil Aerospace Technologies(no.D020105)funded by the China National Space Administration.
文摘Profiles of the Martian dayside ionosphere can be used to derive the neutral atmospheric densities at 130 km,which can also be obtained from the Mars Climate Database(MCD)and spacecraft aerobraking observations.In this research,we explain the method used to calculate neutral densities at 130 km via ionosphere observations and three long-period 130-km neutral density data sets at northern high latitudes(latitudes>60°)acquired through ionospheric data measured by the Mars Global Surveyor(MGS)Radio Occultation Experiment.The calculated 130-km neutral density data,along with 130-km density data from the aerobraking observations of the MGS and Mars Odyssey(ODY)in the northern high latitudes,were compared with MCD outputs at the same latitude,longitude,altitude,solar latitude,and local time.The 130-km density data derived from both the ionospheric profiles and aerobraking observations were found to show seasonal variations similar to those in the MCD data.With a negative shift of about 2×10^10 cm^−3,the corrected 130-km neutral densities derived from MCD v4.3 were consistent with those obtained from the two different observations.This result means that(1)the method used to derive the 130-km neutral densities with ionospheric profiles was effective,(2)the MCD v4.3 data sets generally overestimated the 130-km neutral densities at high latitudes,and(3)the neutral density observations from the MGS Radio Science Experiment could be used to calibrate a new atmospheric model of Mars.
基金the CAS Key Project (KZCXZ-203)the NSFC Project (No. 49735160 and No.40075020)IAP Innovation Fund (No. 8-1307).
文摘The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) underwent an interdecadal variation with interannual variations during the period from 1958 to 1997, its index tended to decline from a higher stage in the mid-1960,s until it reached a lower stage after 1980/s. Correlation analysis reveals that EASM is closely related with the global atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). The differences between the weak and strong stage of EASM shows that, the summer monsoon circulation over East Asia and North Africa is sharply weakened, in the meantime, the westerlies in high latitudes and the trade-wind over the tropical ocean are also changed significantly. Over the most regions south of the northern subtropics, both air temperature in the lower troposphere and SST tended to rise compared with the strong stage of EASM. It is also revealed that the ocean-atmosphere interaction over the western Pacific and Indian Ocean plays a key role in interannual to interdecadal variation of EASM, most probably, the subtropical indian Ocean is more important. On the other hand, the ENSO event is less related to EASM at least during the concerned period.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41475068,40805034)Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest(GYHY201206009)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(lzujbky-2014-203)
文摘Based on the three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation(TPDGAC), this study investigates the double-layer structure of the Hadley circulation(HC) and its interdecadal evolution characteristics by using monthly horizontal wind field from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1948—2011. The following major conclusions are drawn: First, the double-layer structure of the HC is an objective fact, and it constantly exists in April,May, June, October and November in the Southern Hemisphere. Second, the double-layer structure is more obvious in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere. Since the double-layer structure is sloped in the vertical direction, it should be taken into consideration when analyzing the variations of the strength and location of the center of the HC.Third, the strength of the double-layer structure of the HC in the Southern Hemisphere consistently exhibits decadal variations with a strong, weak and strong pattern in all five months(April, May, June, October, and November), with cycles of 20-30 a and 40-60 a. Fourth, the center of the HC(mean position of the double-layer structure) in the Southern Hemisphere consistently and remarkably shifts southward in all the five months. The net poleward shifts over the 64 years are 5.18°, 2.11°, 2.50°, 1.79° and 5.76° for the five respective months, with a mean shift of 3.47°.
基金The National Basic Research Program Grant of China under contract No.2011CB403502the National High Technology Research and Development Program(863 Program)under contract No.2013AA09A506+2 种基金the Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction Program under contract No.GASI-03-01-01-04the International Cooperation Program Grant of China under contract No.2010DFB23580author Guan Yuping is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 40976011 and 91228202
文摘The annual mean volume and heat transport sketches through the inter-basin passages and transoceanic sections have been constructed based on 1400-year spin up results of the MOM4p 1. The spin up starts from a state of rest, driven by the monthly climatological mean force from the NOAAWorld Ocean Atlas (1994). The volume transport sketch reveals the northward transport throughout the Pacific and southward transport at all latitudes in the Atlantic. The annual mean strength of the Pacific-Arctic-Atlantic through flow is 0.63x106 m3/s in the Bering Strait. The majority of the northward volume transport in the southern Pacific turns into the Indonesian through flow (ITF) and joins the Indian Ocean equatorial current, which subse- quently flows out southward from the Mozambique Channel, with its majority superimposed on the Ant- arctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). This anti-cyclonic circulation around Australia has a strength of 11 x 106 ms /s according to the model-produced result. The atmospheric fresh water transport, known as P-E^R (pre- cipitation minus evaporation plus runoff), constructs a complement to the horizontal volume transport of the ocean. The annual mean heat transport sketch exhibits a northward heat transport in the Atlantic and poleward heat transport in the global ocean. The surface heat flux acts as a complement to the horizontal heat transport of the ocean. The climatological volume transports describe the most important features through the inter-basin passages and in the associated basins, including: the positive P-E+R in the Arctic substantially strengthening the East Greenland Current in summer; semiannual variability of the volume transport in the Drake Passage and the southern Atlantic-Indian Ocean passage; and annual transport vari- ability of the ITF intensifying in the boreal summer. The climatological heat transports show heat storage in July and heat deficit in January in the Arctic; heat storage in January and heat deficit in July in the Antarctic circumpolar current regime (ACCR); and intensified heat transport of the iTF in July. The volume transport of the ITF is synchronous with the volume transport through the southern Indo-Pacific sections, but the year-long southward heat transport of the ITF is out of phase with the heat transport through the equatorial Pacific, which is northward before May and southward after May. This clarifies the majority of the ITF origi- natinR from the southern Pacific Ocean.
文摘The objective of this study is to model the mean and seasonal mass transportof the Pacific to Indian O-cean throughflow using variable-grid global Ocean General CirculationModel (OGCM) with fine grid (1°/6) covering the area from 20°S to 60°N and from 98°E to 156°E.The computations show that Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) mass transport, computed as a sum ofthrough-strait transport, has maximum transport in Sept. (17. 5Sv) and minimum transport in Jan. (9.5Sv). The annual mean ITF transport amounts to 14. 5Sv. Twenty-two percent of this transport passesthrough Lombok Strait. Sixty-five percent of this transport passes through Timor Passage.Semi-annual variability is apparent in Lombok and Ombai Straits while annual variability is apparentin Timor Passage.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2017YFC1502305)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41775069&41975076)。
文摘This paper reviews the three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation(3P-DGAC)developed in recent years,including the decomposition model and the dynamical equations of global horizontal,meridional,and zonal circulations.Compared with the traditional two-dimensional(2D)circulation decomposition method,the 3P-DGAC can effectively decompose the actual vertical vorticity into two components that are caused by the horizontal circulation and convergent/divergent movement(associated with the meridional and zonal circulations).It also decomposes the vertical velocity into the components of the meridional vertical circulation and the zonal vertical circulation,thus providing a new method to study the dynamical influences of convergent/divergent motions on the evolution of actual vertical vorticity and an accurate description of local vertical circulations.The 3P-DGAC is a three-dimensional(3D)circulation decomposition method based on the main characteristics of the actual atmospheric movements.The horizontal,meridional,and zonal circulations after the 3P-DGAC are the global generalization of Rossby waves in the middle-high latitudes and Hadley and Walker circulations in low latitudes.Therefore,the three-pattern decomposition model and its dynamical equations provide novel theoretical tools for studying complex interactions between middle-high and low latitude circulations as well as the physical mechanisms of the abnormal evolution of large-scale atmospheric circulations under the background of global warming.
基金This research was partially funded by the National Science Foundation,Award No.DEB1010259,Understanding Land Use Decisions&Watershed Scale Interactions:Water Quality in the Mississippi River Basin&Hypoxic Conditions in the Gulf of Mexicoby the U.S.Department of Agriculture,National Institute of Food and Agriculture,Award No.20116800230190,Climate Change,Mitigation,and Adaptation In Corn-Based Cropping Systems.
文摘Nonpoint source pollution from agriculture is the main source of nitrogen and phosphorus in the stream systems of the Corn Belt region in the Midwestern US.The eastern part of this region is comprised of the Ohio-Tennessee River Basin(OTRB),which is considered a key contributing area for water pollution and the Northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone.A point of crucial importance in this basin is therefore how intensive corn-based cropping systems for food and fuel production can be sustainable and coexist with a healthy water environment,not only under existing climate but also under climate change conditions in the future.To address this issue,a OTRB integrated modeling system has been built with a greatly refined 12-digit subbasin structure based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)water quality model,which is capable of estimating landscape and in-stream water and pollutant yields in response to a wide array of alternative cropping and/or management strategies and climatic conditions.The effects of three agricultural management scenarios on crop production and pollutant loads exported from the crop land of the OTRB to streams and rivers were evaluated:(1)expansion of continuous corn across the entire basin,(2)adoption of no-till on all corn and soybean fields in the region,(3)implementation of a winter cover crop within the baseline rotations.The effects of each management scenario were evaluated both for current climate and projected mid-century(2046-2065)climates from seven global circulation models(GCMs).In both present and future climates each management scenario resulted in reduced erosion and nutrient loadings to surface water bodies compared to the baseline agricultural management,with cover crops causing the highest water pollution reduction.Corn and soybean yields in the region were negligibly influenced from the agricultural management scenarios.On the other hand,both water quality and crop yield numbers under climate change deviated considerably for all seven GCMs compared to the baseline climate.Future climates from all GCMs led to decreased corn and soybean yields by up to 20%on a mean annual basis,while water quality alterations were either positive or negative depending on the GCM.The study highlights the loss of productivity in the eastern Corn Belt under climate change,the need to consider a range of GCMs when assessing impacts of climate change,and the value of SWAT as a tool to analyze the effects of climate change on parameters of interest at the basin scale.
基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA20100304)Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (2019QZKK0208)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (41790471)National Key Scientific Research Plan of China (2016YFA0602200)。
文摘We use 71-yr(1948–2018) reanalysis data to investigate the interdecadal variation in the atmospheric heat source(Q1) over the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding Asian monsoon region(AMTP) and its effect on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation. The large-scale circulation driven by Q1 over the AMTP is characterized by a center of convergent(divergent) or low(high) potential wind function in the lower(upper) troposphere. Q1 over the AMTP shows a clear interdecadal variation(with positive–negative–positive phases) and these three phases correspond to the time periods 1948–1972, 1973–2005, and 2006–2018, respectively. The thermal circulation has a corresponding interdecadal variation as a response to the interdecadal variation in Q1. An enhanced Q1 leads to an increase in the conversion of the total potential energy to non-divergent wind kinetic energy via the divergent wind velocity. The maximum conversion occurs in the tropopause. The primary thermal forcing for Q1 is produced by the intense, large volume precipitation of the summer monsoon. This induces a response in the large-scale circulation, leading to largescale divergence patterns. The synergistic effects of Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) influence Q1 over the AMTP, which is ultimately responsible for the modulation of variations in the global divergent circulation. The global divergent circulation in summer is therefore essentially a direct thermodynamic circulation driven by the strong Q1 over the AMTP.