Global parameter estimation of the Cochlodinium polykrikoides model using bioassay data

Cochlodinium polykrikoides is a notoriously harmful algal species that inflicts severe damage on the aquacultures of the coastal seas of Korea and Japan. Information on their expected movement tracks and boundaries of influence is very useful and important for the effective establishment of a reduction plan. In general, the information is supported by a red-tide（a.k.a algal bloom） model. The performance of the model is highly dependent on the accuracy of parameters, which are the coefficients of functions approximating the biological growth and loss patterns of the C. polykrikoides. These parameters have been estimated using the bioassay data composed of growth-limiting factor and net growth rate value pairs. In the case of the C. polykrikoides, the parameters are different from each other in accordance with the used data because the bioassay data are sufficient compared to the other algal species. The parameters estimated by one specific dataset can be viewed as locally-optimized because they are adjusted only by that dataset. In cases where the other one data set is used, the estimation error might be considerable. In this study, the parameters are estimated by all available data sets without the use of only one specific data set and thus can be considered globally optimized. The cost function for the optimization is defined as the integrated mean squared estimation error, i.e., the difference between the values of the experimental and estimated rates. Based on quantitative error analysis, the root-mean squared errors of the global parameters show smaller values, approximately 25%–50%, than the values of the local parameters. In addition, bias is removed completely in the case of the globally estimated parameters. The parameter sets can be used as the reference default values of a red-tide model because they are optimal and representative. However, additional tuning of the parameters using the in-situ monitoring data is highly required.As opposed to the bioassay data, it is necessary because the bioassay data have limitations in terms of the in-situ coastal conditions.

A family of quasi-cubic blended splines and applications

A class of quasi-cubic B-spline base functions by trigonometric polynomials are established which inherit properties similar to those of cubic B-spline bases. The corresponding curves with a shape parameter a, defined by the introduced base functions, include the B-spline curves and can approximate the B-spline curves from both sides. The curves can be adjusted easily by using the shape parameter a, where dpi（a,t） is linear with respect to da for the fixed t. With the shape parameter chosen properly, the defined curves can be used to precisely represent straight line segments, parabola segments, circular arcs and some transcendental curves, and the corresponding tensor product surfaces can also represent spherical surfaces, cylindrical surfaces and some transcendental surfaces exactly. By abandoning positive property, this paper proposes a new C^2 continuous blended interpolation spline based on piecewise trigonometric polynomials associated with a sequence of local parameters. Illustration showed that the curves and surfaces constructed by the blended spline can be adjusted easily and freely. The blended interpolation spline curves can be shape-preserving with proper local parameters since these local parameters can be considered to be the magnification ratio to the length of tangent vectors at the interpolating points. The idea is extended to produce blended spline surfaces.

On the Fifth-Order Stokes Solution for Steady Water Waves

This paper presents a universal fifth-order Stokes solution for steady water waves on the basis of potential theory. It uses a global perturbation parameter, considers a depth uniform current, and thus admits the flexibilities on the definition of the perturbation parameter and on the determination of the wave celerity. The universal solution can be extended to that of Chappelear （1961）, confirming the correctness for the universal theory. Furthermore, a particular fifth-order solution is obtained where the wave steepness is used as the perturbation parameter. The applicable range of this solution in shallow depth is analyzed. Comparisons with the Fourier approximated results and with the experimental measurements show that the solution is fairly suited to waves with the Ursell number not exceeding 46.7.

Prediction of near-field strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes on active fault

A method to predict near-field strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes on active faults is proposed. First, macro-source parameters characterizing the entire source area, i.e., global source parameters, including fault length, fault width, rupture area, average slip on the fault plane, etc., are estimated by seismogeology survey, seismicity and seismic scaling laws. Second, slip distributions characterizing heterogeneity or roughness on the fault plane, i.e., local source parameters, are reproduced/evaluated by the hybrid slip model. Finally, the finite fault source model, developed from both the global and local source parameters, is combined with the stochastically synthetic technique of ground motion using the dynamic comer frequency based on seismology. The proposed method is applied to simulate the acceleration time histories on three base-rock stations during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Comparisons between the predicted and recorded acceleration time histories show that the method is feasible and practicable.

IGS polar motion measurement accuracy

We elaborate an error budget for the long-term accuracy of IGS（International Global Navigation Satellite System Service） polar motion estimates, concluding that it is probably about 25-30 μas（1-sigma）overall, although it is not possible to quantify possible contributions（mainly annual） that might transfer directly from aliases of subdaily rotational tide errors. The leading sources are biases arising from the need to align daily, observed terrestrial frames, within which the pole coordinates are expressed and which are continuously deforming, to the secular, linear international reference frame. Such biases are largest over spans longer than about a year. Thanks to the very large number of IGS tracking stations, the formal covariance errors are much smaller,around 5 to 10 μas. Large networks also permit the systematic frame-related errors to be more effectively minimized but not eliminated. A number of periodic errors probably also influence polar motion results, mainly at annual, GPS（Global Positioning System） draconitic, and fortnightly periods, but their impact on the overall error budget is unlikely to be significant except possibly for annual tidal aliases. Nevertheless, caution should be exercised in interpreting geophysical excitations near any of the suspect periods.

On the universal third order Stokes wave solution

This paper presents a universal third-order Stokes solution with uniform current. This solution is derived on the basis of potential theory by expanding the free surface and potential function in Fourier series and determining the Fourier coefficients by solving a set of nonlinear algebraic equations through the Taylor expansion and perturbation method. The universal solution is expressed upon the still water depth with the still water level as datum and retains a global perturbation parameter. The wave set-up term generated by the self-interaction of oscillatory waves is explicitly included in the free surface function. With the use of different definitions for the wave celerity, different water levels as the datum, different non-dimensional variables as the perturbation parameter, and different treatments for the total head, the universal solution can be reduced to the existing various Stokes solutions, thus explaining the reasons and the physical significance of different non-periodic terms in them, such as the positive or negative constant term in the free surface expression and the time-or space-proportional term in the potential function.