Possible Sources of Forecast Errors Generated by the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones.PartⅠ:Initial Uncertainties

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone （TC） tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES）. The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfaIling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions （＂initials＂, hereafter）, which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.

Helmholtz Solving and Performance Optimization in Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System

Despite efficient parallelism in the solution of physical parameterization in the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES),the Helmholtz equation in the dynamic core,with the increase of resolution,can hardly achieve sufficient parallelism in the solving process due to a large amount of communication and irregular access.In this paper,optimizing the Helmholtz equation solution for better performance and higher efficiency has been an urgent task.An optimization scheme for the parallel solution of the Helmholtz equation is proposed in this paper.Specifically,the geometrical multigrid optimization strategy is designed by taking advantage of the data anisotropy of grid points near the pole and the isotropy of those near memory equator in the Helmholtz equation,and the Incomplete LU(ILU)decomposition preconditioner is adopted to speed up the convergence of the improved Generalized Conjugate Residual(GCR),which effectively reduces the number of iterations and the computation time.The overall solving performance of the Helmholtz equation is improved by thread-level parallelism,vectorization,and reuse of data in the cache.The experimental results show that the proposed optimization scheme can effectively eliminate the bottleneck of the Helmholtz equation as regards the solving speed.Considering the test results on a 10-node two-way server,the solution of the Helmholtz equation,compared with the original serial version,is accelerated by 100,with one-third of iterations reduced.

热带风压场平衡特征及其对GRAPES系统中同化预报的影响研究Ⅱ:动力与统计混合平衡约束方案的应用

研究I的结果表明:线性平衡方程(LBE)在热带地区不适用,而进一步改进方向是削弱LBE在该区域的约束程度。本文以此为基础,在GRAPES(global/regional assimilation and prediction system)全球变分同化系统中引入动力与统计混合平衡约束方案。新方案在逐层求解LBE的基础上增加垂直方向的线性回归,回归系数随纬度和高度变化。针对背景误差协方差的分析表明,新方案可以更好的保证独立分析变量间预报误差不相关的基本要求,并大幅度减小热带地区平衡气压预报误差方差的量值和占总方差的比例。单点试验结果表明,与LBE方案相比,新方案对中、高纬影响很小,但在热带地区成功实现了风、压场分析的解耦,两者分析更为独立。并且,虽未考虑具体波动模态,但新方案给出的风、压场协相关结构与研究I的理论分析结果相近。一个月的同化循环与预报结果表明,引入新方案后,赤道外地区的同化预报效果为中性偏正,而热带地区风场的同化预报效果显著提高,LBE方案中平流层低层的风场同化预报异常被基本消除。

GRAPES全球三维变分同化系统——基本设计方案与理想试验

中国气象局数值预报研究中心开发了一个全球和区域统一框架的格点三维变分资料同化系统(GRAPES3D-Var)。作者给出全球版本的方案设计,采用单点观测试验检验方案设计的合理性和正确性。全球方案选择流函数、速度势、非平衡高度和相对湿度作为分析求解的控制变量,用线性平衡方程作为质量场和风场的动力约束,通过预调方法解决背景误差协方差矩阵阶数过大和难以求逆的问题,其中垂直变换和物理变换以及观测算子设计等方面与区域方案相同,但预调的水平变换采用球谐函数谱滤波表示背景误差协方差的水平相关模型,避免了递归滤波在高纬和极区因相关尺度过大无法实施的问题。另外,设计了一个使极区插值和差分计算完全闭合的网格以及相应的算法,解决了极点分析问题。单点观测理想试验结果表明,GRAPES 3D-Var系统能够合理给出全球任何地区的分析。

降尺度方法在东亚气候预测中的应用

东亚气候变异十分复杂,全球动力预测系统对该地气候异常的预测能力偏低,如何进一步提高东亚地区气候异常的预测水平是一个非常重要的科学和现实需求问题。为此,近些年一系列的动力和统计降尺度方法得以发展。本文主要回顾了这些降尺度方法在东亚气候预测研究和实时预测中的应用。首先,文中简要介绍了我国目前应用于实时预测的全球动力预测系统及其性能,这是开展降尺度的科学和技术基础;在此基础上,从区域模式物理过程参数化方案的评估与遴选、区域模式在东亚气候预测中的应用两个方面,对于动力降尺度方法的发展和应用做了回顾;在统计降尺度的综述中,本文主要关注了东亚夏季汛期和冬季气候异常的预测,特别是针对东亚冬季气候异常,本文中提出了新的高效的统计与动力相结合的预测方法。最后,展望了短期气候预测需要进一步深入研究的科学和技术问题。

我国自主研制的全球/区域一体化数值天气预报系统GRAPES的应用与展望

介绍了中国气象局自主研制的新一代全球与区域一体化数值天气预报系统(GRAPES),着重讨论了该系统的全可压/非静力平衡动力框架,全球模式/区域模式一体化设计,半隐式-半拉格朗日差分方案,标准化、模块化、并行化、模式程序软件体系等核心技术特点。GRAPES系统已在国家级、区域级气象业务中心,以及一些大学和研究所得到应用,并在不断地完善和发展。

新一代数值预报系统GRAPES研究进展

中国气象科学研究院(灾害天气国家重点实验室)自2000年起,先后在科技部“973”重大基础项目“我国重大天气灾害形成机理和预测理论研究”和“十五”重点攻关项目“中国气象数值预报系统技术创新研究”支持下,主持承担了中国气象局新一代全球/区域多尺度通用同化与数值预报系统GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation andPrEdiction System)的研究开发,围绕着资料同化、模式动力框架、物理过程、大型软件工程等核心技术开展了自主创新研究,取得了非静力中尺度模式、三维变分资料同化、标准化、模块化、并行化模式程序软件等方面的突出成果,部分成果已在业务上得到了应用,显示了良好的技术性能和业务发展潜力。GRAPES系统是完全依靠中国科学家的力量自主研究发展的、先进的新一代数值预报系统。该文简要介绍GRAPES的研究内容、主要研究进展和初步应用,以及未来发展的初步计划。

FY-2E云导风的算法改进及其在GRAPES中的同化应用研究

2014年国家卫星气象中心全面改进了风云二号卫星云导风产品算法,为评估算法改进后FY-2E云导风资料对我国GRAPES数值模式同化和预报的影响,根据国家卫星气象中心提供的2013年8月算法改进前后的FY-2E红外通道云导风资料,对比分析了两者的观测分布及偏差特征,并利用GRAPES全球模式进行了一个月的连续试验。结果表明,改进算法后的FY-2E红外通道云导风观测数量明显增加,观测误差在600~200 hPa有所减小,风的平均偏差在高层减少,更满足正态分布;连续试验结果表明北半球和东亚地区风场在300~150 hPa分析中改进显著,风的平均偏差和均方根误差明显减少;预报结果显示500 hPa高度场预报距平相关系数略提高,均方根误差略减小;说明改进算法后的FY-2E红外通道云导风对GRAPES数值模式同化和预报均有一定改善。

对流天气系统自动站雨量资料同化对降雨预报的影响

利用GRAPES(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System,全球/区域同化预报系统)三维变分同化系统,针对对流天气系统特点,用改进的郭晓岚对流参数化方案作为观测算子,同化广东省自动站记录的对流天气系统的雨量资料,并且与同化探空资料进行了比较。在雨带有明显改进的区域,分别同化这两种资料都可以调整大气低层水汽辐合增加(或辐散),对流层中下层增暖增湿(或变冷变干),从而增加(或减少)降水,表明降水的同化方案对初始场的调整在一定程度上符合探空观测。进一步讨论同时同化这两种资料对暴雨预报的影响,结果表明同化自动站降水资料对暴雨系统短时预报有正面影响,同时同化这两种资料,可以弥补资料的不足。

加密探空资料在华南暴雨数值预报的应用试验

应用逐时同化预报系统CHAF进行加密探空资料同化试验,比较了同化加密探空资料与仅同化常规探空资料所得同化分析场和模式预报结果的差异。同化加密探空资料所得分析场水汽的均方根误差减小,水汽条件和大气环流形势与实况更接近。以加密同化探空资料所得分析场为模式初始场进行预报,雨区的分布和降水量级都较控制试验有改善。分析模式预报改善的原因,主要是大气水汽条件与环流模拟的改善以及二者之间很好的配合。

GRAPES-REPS西南低涡预报检验评估

利用2015年6—8月GR APES-REPS(Global/RegionalAssimilation and Prediction System-Regional Ensemble·Prediction System)区域集合预报资料,并设计西南低涡格点资料客观识别方法对西南低涡中心位置进行定位,首先评估GRAPES控制预报对西南低涡的预报准确性,之后挑选出四次生命史较长的西南低涡过程,分析评估GRAPES-REPS对西南低涡发生、发展、移动及降水过程集合预报性能。结果表明:(1)GRAPES模式对西南低涡预报的命中率较高,空报率略大于漏报率。(2)GRAPES-REPS对西南低涡发生和发展的预报效果较好,绝大部分集合预报成员能预报西南低涡发生和发展过程,但对西南低涡发生时间预报总体偏早。(3)GRAPES-REPS对西南低涡移动路径在24 h预报时效内比较合理,且集合预报平均明显优于控制预报,24 h之后东移型西南低涡移动路径明显偏北。(4)GRAPES-REPS对西南低涡强度预报总体偏强,表现为中心正涡度值偏大,位势高度值偏低。(5)24 h预报时效内,西南低涡触发的小雨到大雨量级的降水概率评分均有较好表现,且落区与实况接近,而暴雨落区个别略有偏北,但基本吻合。24 h之后,由于东移型西南低涡移动路径偏北导致模式预报降水落区偏北。可见,模式对西南低涡强降水有一定预报能力,因此,提高GRAPES-REPS中尺度集合预报能力,将有助于改进西南低涡强降水预报。

广义共轭余差法的通信避免算法

广义共轭余差法是一种用于求解非对称线性方程组的有效算法。为减少算法中的全局通信,首创性地提出了“通信避免的广义共轭余差法”,避免了迭代过程中的全局通信,使算法中的全局通信总次数降低了一个数量级,同时减少了约50%的计算量(计算量的具体减少比例与计算规模相关)。大规模测试中(最大16384进程),新算法最高达到了原算法3倍的运算速率。进一步分析表明,新算法在各种并行规模下的运算速率和可扩展性都优于原算法。在较小并行规模下,新算法的优势主要来源于计算量的减少。在较大并行规模下,新算法的优势主要来源于全局通信量的减少。

基于GPCA和GAPSO-NN的中国区域经济预测方法研究

结合全局主成分分析(GPCA)和遗传微粒群-神经网络(GAPSO-NN),对中国区域经济发展水平进行预测.首先构建区域经济发展水平的评价指标体系并提取相关数据;然后借助GPCA获得全局主成分分值、综合评价值,作为GAPSO-NN的输入、输出;接着构建GAPSO-NN预测模型并训练网络;最后通过预测仿真,表明基于GPCA和GAPSO-NN预测方法的有效性.

Research and Operational Development of Numerical Weather Prediction in China

Numerical weather prediction(NWP) is a core technology in weather forecast and disaster mitigation. China’s NWP research and operational applications have been attached great importance by the meteorological community.Fundamental achievements have been made in the theories, methods, and NWP model development in China, which are of certain international impacts. In this paper, the scientific and technological progress of NWP in China since1949 is summarized. The current status and recent progress of the domestically developed NWP system-GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System) are presented. Through independent research and development in the past 10 years, the operational GRAPES system has been established, which includes both regional and global deterministic and ensemble prediction models, with resolutions of 3-10 km for regional and 25-50 km for global forecasts. Major improvements include establishment of a new non-hydrostatic dynamic core, setup of four-dimensional variational data assimilation, and development of associated satellite application. As members of the GRAPES system, prediction models for atmospheric chemistry and air pollution, tropical cyclones, and ocean waves have also been developed and put into operational use. The GRAPES system has been an important milestone in NWP science and technology in China.

Comparative evaluation of the impact of GRAPES and MM5 meteorology on CMAQ prediction over Pearl River Delta, China

The community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) model was used to forecast air quality over the Pearl River Delta region from December 2013 to January 2014.The pollution forecasting performance of CMAQ coupled with two different meteorological models,i.e.,the global/regional assimilation and prediction system (GRAPES) and the fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5),was assessed by comparison with observational data.The effects of meteorological factors and physicochemical processes on the forecast results were discussed through process analysis.The results showed that both models exhibited good performance but that of GRAPES-CMAQ was better.GRAPES was superior in predicting the overall variation tendencies of meteorological fields,but it showed large deviations in atmospheric pressure and wind speed.This contributed to the higher correlation coefficients of the pollutants with GRAPES-CMAQ but with greater deviations.The underestimations of nitrate and ammonium salt contributed to the underestimations of both particulate matter and extinction coefficients.Source emissions made the only positive contributions to surface layer SO2,CO,and NO.It was found that O3 originated primarily from horizontal and vertical transport and that its consumption was predominantly via chemical processes.Conversely,NO2 was found derived primarily from chemical production.

陆面过程模式研发中的问题

陆面过程研究是充分理解天气/气候/地球系统过程不可或缺的重要主题。本文全面梳理了当前用于数值天气/气候/地球系统模式的陆面过程模式研制的问题,建议了当前陆面过程模式研制中需加强和改进完善的关键内容。特别强调在新一代模式研发中建立包含人类活动的高分辨率全球陆面过程模式;特别强调与其他学科相结合,形成不同行业的预报预测系统或研究方法和工具。建议建设中国的集模式发展、数据分析、模拟方法、高性能计算、数据可视化和应用示范为一体的陆面模拟综合集成平台,为天气/气候/地球系统模式提供陆面过程模式,为开展精细化的全球和区域陆面水文-气象-生态的预报预测提供科技支撑。

Conjugate Gradient Algorithm in the Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation System in GRAPES

Minimization algorithms are singular components in four-dimensional variational data assimilation(4DVar).In this paper,the convergence and application of the conjugate gradient algorithm(CGA),which is based on the Lanczos iterative algorithm and the Hessian matrix derived from tangent linear and adjoint models using a non-hydrostatic framework,are investigated in the 4DVar minimization.First,the influence of the Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization of the Lanczos vector on the convergence of the Lanczos algorithm is studied.The results show that the Lanczos algorithm without orthogonalization fails to converge after the ninth iteration in the 4DVar minimization,while the orthogonalized Lanczos algorithm converges stably.Second,the convergence and computational efficiency of the CGA and quasi-Newton method in batch cycling assimilation experiments are compared on the 4DVar platform of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES).The CGA is 40%more computationally efficient than the quasi-Newton method,although the equivalent analysis results can be obtained by using either the CGA or the quasi-Newton method.Thus,the CGA based on Lanczos iterations is better for solving the optimization problems in the GRAPES 4DVar system.

New generation of multi-scale NWP system (GRAPES):general scientific design

A new generation of numerical prediction system GRAPES (a short form of Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System) was set up in China Meteorological Administration (CMA). This paper focuses on the scientific design and preliminary results of the numerical prediction model in GRAPES, including basic idea and strategy of the general scientific design, multi-scale dynamic core, physical package configuration, architecture and parallelization of the codes. A series of numerical experiments using the real data with horizontal resolutions from 10 to 280 km and idealized experiments with very high resolution up to 100 m are conducted, giving encouraging results supporting the multi-scale application of GRAPES. The results of operational implementation of GRAPES model in some NWP centers are also presented with stress at evaluations of the capability to predict the main features of precipitation in China. Finally the issues to be dealt with for further development are discussed.

Effects of Different Initial Fields on GRAPES Numerical Prediction

In this paper, a heavy rainfall process occurring in the Huaihe River Basin during 9-10 July 2005 is studied by the new generation numerical weather prediction model system-GRAPES, from the view of different initial field effects on the prediction of the model. Several numerical experiments are conducted with the initial conditions and lateral boundary fields provided by T213 L31 and NCEP final analyses, respectively. The sensitivity of prediction products generated by GRAPES to different initial conditions, including effects of three-dimensional variational assimilation on the results, is discussed. After analyzing the differences between the two initial fields and the four simulated results, the memonic ability of the model to initial fields and their influences on precipitation forecast are investigated. Analyses show the obvious differences of sub-synoptic scale between T213 and NCEP initial fields, which result in the corresponding different simulation results, and the differences do not disappear with the integration running. It also shows that for the same initial field whether it has data assimilation or not, it only obviously influences the GRAPES model results in the initial 24 h. Then the differences reduce. In addition, both the location and intensity of heavy rain forecasted by GRAPES model Further is very close to the fact, but the forecasting area of strong torrential rain has some differences from the fact. For the same initial field when it has assimilation, the 9-12-, 12-24-, and 0-24-h precipitation forecasts of the model are better than those without assimilation. All these suggest that the ability of GRAPES numerical prediction depends on the different initial fields and lateral boundary conditions to some extent, and the differences of initial fields will determine the differences of GRAPES simulated results.

An MPI+OpenACC-Based PRM Scalar Advection Scheme in the GRAPES Model over a Cluster with Multiple CPUs and GPUs

A moisture advection scheme is an essential module of a numerical weather/climate model representing the horizontal transport of water vapor.The Piecewise Rational Method(PRM) scalar advection scheme in the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES) solves the moisture flux advection equation based on PRM.Computation of the scalar advection involves boundary exchange,and computation of higher bandwidth requirements is complicated and time-consuming in GRAPES.Recently,Graphics Processing Units(GPUs) have been widely used to solve scientific and engineering computing problems owing to advancements in GPU hardware and related programming models such as CUDA/OpenCL and Open Accelerator(OpenACC).Herein,we present an accelerated PRM scalar advection scheme with Message Passing Interface(MPI) and OpenACC to fully exploit GPUs’ power over a cluster with multiple Central Processing Units(CPUs) and GPUs,together with optimization of various parameters such as minimizing data transfer,memory coalescing,exposing more parallelism,and overlapping computation with data transfers.Results show that about 3.5 times speedup is obtained for the entire model running at medium resolution with double precision when comparing the scheme’s elapsed time on a node with two GPUs(NVIDIA P100) and two 16-core CPUs(Intel Gold 6142).Further,results obtained from experiments of a higher resolution model with multiple GPUs show excellent scalability.