The evolution analysis of agricultural global value chains

With the Uruguay Round bringing agricultural trade into multilateral regulation,the major countries have actively participated in agricultural global value chains(AGVC)and occupied an important position according to their comparative advantages.Utilizing bilateral agricultural trade data of 66 countries based on the OECD Inter-Country-Input-Output Tables(OECD ICIO)from 2010 to 2018,this study applies social network analysis indicators to measure each country’s eigenvector centrality within AGVC and to examine the current global agricultural trade patterns,with particular attention to the changes in the status of world powers within AGVC.The main findings are as follows:first,with the multilateral and regional trade liberalization,growing numbers of developing nations,including China and India,are engaging in international agricultural trade,which contributes to its diversification;second,as AGVC develops,the structure of global agricultural trade networks has become more decentralized and balanced.This is evidenced by the emergence of additional central nodes,and large nations like the United States,which formerly held the most central position as indicated by a drop in its centrality,are becoming less dominant.

Does strict environmental regulation enhance the global value chains position of China's industrial sector?

Given the vital importance of global value chains(GVCs)position for a country's international competitiveness,this paper tries to investigate the impacts of environmental regulation on the GVCs position of China's industrial sector.Using the latest value-added decomposition method,we first measure the GVCs position of China's industrial sector from 2003 to 2014.Subsequently,both two-stage least squares(2 SLS)method with panel data and mediating effect model are employed to empirically examine the effects of environmental regulation on China's position in GVCs.The results indicate that environmental regulation has significantly upgraded the GVCs position of China's industrial sector,and the effect is more evident for the sub-sectors with originally lower GVCs position.The mediation effect test shows that increasing R&D investment is an important channel through which environmental regulation affects the GVCs position of China's industrial sector,which verifies the existence of the Porter hypothesis.Further analysis finds that the enhancement of GVCs position of China's industrial sector caused by environmental regulation is mainly achieved through reducing the backward GVCs position.

China's Position in Global Value Chains Compared with the EU,U.S.and Japan

By creating a five-country I-O model of China, EU, US, Japan and other countries, this paper decomposes gross export into nine parts and investigates the GVC positions and competitiveness of China and the other three economies for different sectors using real domestic trade in value-added and GVC position indices. In addition, valueadded trade is taken into consideration to identify the labor division characteristics of the four economies in the GVC, which led to the following findings: China participates primarily in the single links of the GVC at the downstream yet shows a significant tendency to move upstream in technology-intensive sectors; Japan participates primarily in the single links of the GVC at the upstream and boasts an advantage in technology-intensive sectors; the US participates in the multiple links of the GVC at the upstream with superiority in hightechnology sectors; the EU participates in the production and export of intermediate goods and final goods at both ends.

Creating Inclusive Global Value Chains under the BRI from the Perspective of Public Goods Supply and Demand

Supply and demand of public goods provide a brand-new theoretical framework for research on the creation of inclusive global value chains(GVCs)under the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI).The supply of international public goods is an important positive variable for creating global value chains under the BRI,in which China and other developing countries involved,as well as their small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs),are microscopic entities.When the BRI’s supply of instrumental,institutional,and conceptual international public goods is in equilibrium with the demand of GVC entities for public goods,the BRI creates necessary conditions for the extension of GVCs.GVCs created under the BRI are of great value in promoting inclusiveness,fair income distribution,balanced regional development,and the restructuring of international economic governance.Under the current GVC system,some developed countries have been wary about the BRI and even developed misgivings and biases.Nevertheless,developed countries may play an active role in bridging gaps in the BRI’s development and complement their respective strengths with developing countries for win-win cooperation.

The Global Value Chains and the Evolution of Chinese Economic Model

According to the Word Bank,in the first 38 years of China,economic reform took 700 million people out poverty line in China at the same time benefiting the Global South economy due to the integration of the transnational enterprises global value chains with China.Chinese government understood the economic rational of global value chains,Flying Geese Model,and foreign direct investment theories and introduced policies to attract foreign capital,technology,production,and foreign buyers,placing China as the final stage of the production networks in Asia and also transforming China in the biggest buying market of many resources and energy suppliers from less developed countries in Asia,Africa,and South America.But a new model of Chinese economic development even more interconnected and interdependent with the world is now on move.Even quite before the world acknowledge the protectionist mindset of the US in Trump era,Chinese President Xi Jinping launched in 2013 a very ambitious initiative under the name of“One Road,One Belt,the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road”to enhance a new stage of world globalization,which together with two complimentary initiatives:the“International Production Cooperation”and“Third-Country Market Cooperation”,and in complementarity with the“Made in China 2025”and“Internet Plus”plans will lead China to develop global value chains leaded by Chinese companies and integrating countries of Europe,Africa,Asia,and South America.

Global Value Chains in the Era of 4IR: New Paradigm of Business Models for SMEs

This paper presents a brief literature review of previous studies methodologies,models,and contexts in studying firms’upgrading in Global Value Chains(GVCs).The key context of this paper is set within Fourth Industrial Revolution(4IR).Through the literature review,this paper offers to identify the opportunities of theoretical novelty and ways to elaborate on understanding firm dynamics in Global Value Chains in the context of 4IR.The approach based on Business Model(BM)innovations and new forms of organizing for business(such as platforms)is used to synthesize from previous research findings and build on to newer explanations of firms’entry,learning,and upgrading within GVCs.

Learning by Doing Effect in North South Trade under the Global Value Chains： An Empirical Analysis of Various Industries in the U.S.

This paper studies the division of labor and economic development under global value chains in North South trade by mainly investigating the changes of production hours and cost per unit along with more and more output and increasing trade value in several industries in the U.S., because the U. S. is at the leading position in the division of labor by global value chains. The empirical evidence reveals that more international outsourcing, there will be more detailed division of labor, and the industry unit production time and production cost will show more declining trend year by year. This is consistent with that the global value chains and the outsourcing play more and more important roles in the international division of labor and economic growth in both developed and developing countries, and helps explain the integration of workforce across countries in the global value chains.

Tracking Transfer of Carbon Dioxide Emissions to Countries along the Silk Roads Through Global Value Chains

The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)has aroused rich discussions about the possible increase in carbon dioxide emission under the arduous global carbon dioxide emission reduction task.Adopting the methods of input-output technique and complex network ana-lysis,we first construct a fairer method to trace carbon dioxide emission transfer based on global value chains,then trace the source of carbon dioxide emission transfer to the Silk Roads countries with a long-term multiple regional input-output database.We find that,first,after the proposal of the BRI,the total direct carbon dioxide emissions of the Silk Roads countries and China’s proportion of carbon dioxide emission transfer to the other Silk Roads countries have both declined.Second,the Silk Roads countries are generally the net receivers of carbon dioxide emission transfer,and the inflow is mainly distributed in Southeast Asian countries and core countries in other sub-regions.Then,the transfer of carbon dioxide emission accepted by the Silk Roads countries comes mostly from large developing countries,such as China,Russia,and India,and developed countries,such as the United States,Japan,and Germany.The products are mainly concentrated in energy and chemical industries,as well as heavy industries,such as mining and quarrying,and metal products.We suggest that,due to the high degree of spatial and industrial concentrations of carbon dioxide emission transfer,it is necessary to make targeted policies for these countries and industries to reduce these transfers.

How Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Impact a Country's Position in Global Value Chains?

Economic globalization in the 21st century has been characterized by the rise and spread of global value chains(GVCs).It faces significant challenges due to increasing domestic and international policy uncertainty in the context of emerging mega risks like geopolitical tensions and climate change.This paper begins by constructing a theoretical model for an open economy to study how risk-averse firms make decisions regarding the sourcing of intermediate inputs in an uncertain environment.Our model solution proposes that firms will source fewer intermediate inputs from countries with more economic uncertainty.An increase in domestic and foreign uncertainty will have opposite impacts on a country's position in GVCs.In this sense,we argue that a country tends to move downstream along GVCs if its own economic policies become more uncertain,and it tends to move upstream with an increase in the uncertainty of its trading partner countries.Our regression analyses,based on data including the World Input-Output Database,World Development Indicators,the UN Comtrade database,and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index,provide empirical support for this model-based conclusion.Our findings highlight that a nation must consider foreign economic policy uncertainty and maintain domestic policy stability to participate in GVCs.

The Global Value Chains in BRICS Countries

This paper provides indicators on the length, location, and linkages of global value chains （GVCs） across BRICS countries. These indicators are calculated at the country level using the WIOD database. We find that, as Chinese GVCs lengthen, production stages are increasingly concentrated in China. At the same time, the ＂upstreamness＂ of Chinese production stages in GVCs is also increasing. Compared with China, other BRICS countries＇ positions in GVCs remain relatively unchanged. Since 2000, a new phenomenon has emerged; i.e., some service sectors within the BRICS have begun to participate in GVCs.

Global Value Chains, Horizontal Intra-lndustry Trade and the Heterogeneous Firm

This paper examines global value chains at the level of the heterogeneous firm. The context is a world of horizontal intra-industry trade, characterized by imperfect competition and product differentiation at the firm level. Standard microeconomic tools are employed to assess the effects of inter-firm dissimilarities in both demand and supply on firms＇ responses to changes in trade policy. In this set-up, dissimilarities in firm characteristics play roles similar to factor endowments and technology differences in traditional trade models. When cross-border production sharing （＂fragmentation＂） is introduced into this framework, those differences in firm characteristics determine the degree to which individual firms will enter into production networks. In this context, horizontal and vertical intra-industry tradel elements interact in their effects on firm decisions. Traditional comparative advantage considerations still govern the choice of off-shored activities, while direct competition between imports and exports expands the range of possible outcomes. Finally, it is shown that cross-border production sharing reduces the sensitivity of firms to variations in exchange rates, matching a phenomenon that has been observed in traditional country-level models.

Global Value Chainsint he Era of Digital Economy:Trends,Risks and Countermeasures

The new technological revolution has not only created the digital economy,but has also accelerated the digital transformation of global value chains(GVCs).Digital technologies have reshaped the specialization within global value chains by reducing costs,enabling industrial chains and increasing added value in exports.However,GVCs also face salient risks in the digital economy era,as reflected in their spatial layouts.The enabling effect of digital technologies has led to the shortening and reshoring of global value chains.In value chain governance,dominant countries have imposed technological embargoes on ascendant countries,depriving them of key technologies.In the distribution of value,the imbalances in the specialization within GVCs and digital divides have aggravated global economic inequities.Given the new characteristics and risks of GVCs in the era of the digital economy,as well as the“dual circulation"'development paradigm,China's industrial chains and firms moving up the GVCs need to regard data,the fifth type of production factor,as a key to the enabling effect of the digital economy on industries.These measures will advance the digital transformation of traditional industries and the development of the digital industry,as well as allow industrial chains and innovation chains to work in tandem to facilitate favorable domestic circulation.At the firm level,enterprises should further develop endogenous innovation capacity to become leaders in innovation and free themselves from dependence on foreign sources for key technologies.

Digital Economy Development,Institutional Quality and Upstreamness of Global Value Chains

By building a composite index for measuring national digital economy development and sectoral digital intensities,this paper derives metrics of industry-level digital economy penetration under the framework of specialization within global value chains(GVCs),systematically analyzes the mechanisms through which digital economy development affects GVCs upstreamness,and examines the moderating effect of institutional quality.The study shows that different dimensions of digital economy development significantly boost GVCs upstreamness,a conclusion that holds even after accounting for endogeneity through dynamic panel models with instrumental variables based on past data.Further research shows that technological innovation capabilities and resource allocation efficiency have gradually become important channels for digital economy development to boost GVCs upstreamness.Adding indicators on institutional quality reveals that greater institutional quality not only directly promotes GVCs upstreamness but also reinforces the impact of digital economy development on higher GVCs positioning.

Innovation systems and global value chains:A Co-citation analysis of established linkages and possible future trends

This study draws a historical picture of conceptual linkages of innovation systems(IS)and global value chains(GVC).We used a co-citation technique to map the evolution of these two fields since 1990.We highlighted the connecting nodes over the past three decades.The first decade witnessed a connection between national innovation systems(NIS)and GVC,mediated by regional studies related to industrial clusters and district-based innovation.The tradeoff between tacit sticky local and codified transferable global knowledge and innovation and learning's importance in upgrading in GVC generated two new routes in the second decade.In the last decade,although these routes are retained,their mediating nodes have changed with the literature on technology and sustainable transition from IS and the path dependency role in the evolution of districts in global production networks.Recent trends indicate that evolutionary views on economic geography and catch-up may open new opportunities to link the two,and some lessons highlight the need for more structured interactions in the future.

Dynamic Changes of China’s Functional Specialization in Export and International Comparison under Global Value Chains

The functional specialization in export of a country(and its sectors)in different activities,such as fabrication,R&D,management and marketing,is crucial to its governance and control on the value chains,which magnifies the shortage of the existing aggregate value added studies on our understanding of global value chains(GVCs).Considering production fragmentation at both the spatial and functional levels,this paper defines the modified functional specialization indicators at the national and sectoral levels from the forward linkage(rather than backward linkage).Based on the World Input-Output Database together with the newly compiled Labor Occupations Database,this paper re-estimates and analyzes the functional specialization and changes in China and major developed economies’exports.The results show that China’s export is mainly specialized in fabrication activity,which is among the world leading level,while it is weak in headquarter activities(especially R&D and management),which is almost locked at the lowest level in the world and could not pose an export threat to the developed economies.China’s manufacturing basically follows the functional development path of“relying on fabrication,entering market,targeting management and R&D”,featuring the coexistence of“strong”fabrication and“weak”management and R&D.The fabrication specialization of the typical processing sector“electronic and optical equipment”has reached the international leading level.The level of functional specialization of China’s service industry is generally lower than that of manufacturing and generally lags behind in the world,indicating that China still has a long way to go before becoming a major power of service in the world.Finally,this paper proposes policy implications and further researches that can be extended.

Impact of Embeddedness in Global Value Chains on the Differentiation of Technological Sophistication of Exports

This paper adopts the production decomposition developed by Wang et al.(2017)and data from the World Input-Output Database(WIOD)to estimate the degrees of forward and backward participation in global value chains(GVCs)in 2000-2014 by the world’s major economies including China,and to do an empirical examination on the impact that heterogeneous forms of participation in GVCs have on the improvement of GVCs.The results show that forward participation in GVCs helps increase the sophistication of exports,while backward participation in GVCs exerts different infl uence on the sophistication of exports.While a lower level of backward participation by a country is constrained by the country’s current position in the international division of labor and thus does not help increase the sophistication of its exports,a higher level of backward participation helps break through the bottleneck of low-end locking in GVCs and increase the sophistication of exports.

Global Value Chain Restructuring:Challenges,Opportunities and Strategies for China

Global value chains(GVCs)have entered a new stage of restructuring characterized by trends towards localization,regionalization and diversification.These trends can be attributed to the evolution of the international division,irrational responses to crisis shocks,and trade protectionism.In this context,China’s industrial and supply chain upgrades face both opportunities and challenges which require navigating the adverse effects of industrial re-shoring,unfair technology competition,and changes in the global industrial layout.Yet,such challenges may create pressures for China to accelerate innovation,overcome the low-end lock-up effect by creating regional value chains,and broaden international cooperation.China needs to explore an effective strategy to defuse risks and seize opportunities.On one hand,China should influence the restructuring of GVCs evolution and strengthen its supply chains by playing an active role in economic globalization and the international division.On the other hand,China should proactively respond to GVCs restructuring amid rising trade protectionism,defuse risks from trade protectionism by opening wider to the outside world,and strive to upgrade industrial and supply chains while enhancing the security and stability of their nation.

Global Value Chain Optimization Effect of the Belt and Road Initiative-From the Perspective of Improving Participating Countries’Position in the Division of Labor

To promote the reconstruction and optimization of the global value chains(GVCs),it is essential to tackle the prominent contradictions and problems including inequality of opportunity and status in the evolution of the GVC division of labor.The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)promoted by China has obtained remarkable achievements in this regard;however,there lacks sound theoretical and empirical evidence as to whether the BRI has driven the GVCs to develop towards a more equitable direction.This paper employs the difference-in-differences model to empirically analyze the GVC optimization effect of the BRI.In addition,on the basis of the so-called“five-pronged approach”index,the paper uses the mediating effect model to test the mechanism of influence.The empirical results suggest that the BRI has helped participating countries along the routes to increase their position in GVC division of labor significantly through the mediating mechanism of four out of the“five-pronged approach”,namely policy coordination,road connectivity,unimpeded trade,and currency convertibility.The strengthening of and closer people-to-people ties has not yet appeared to be an effective mediator,and a possible explanation may be that its influence is indirect and lagging.

Production Chain Length and PPI-CPI Divergence:Analysis Based on the Global Input-output Price Model

Productivity and international energy price shocks are reflected in PPI and CPI via industrial chains.China’s in-depth participation into the global value chains has increasingly lengthened its industrial production chains.The question is how the changing length of production chains will affect CPI and PPI,as well as CPI-PPI correlation?By constructing a global input-output price model,this paper offers a theoretical discussion on the impact of production chain length on the CPI-PPI divergence.Our findings suggest that the price shock of international bulk commodities has a greater impact on China’s PPI than that on CPI.The effects on both China’s PPI and CPI estimated by using the single-country input-output model are higher than the results estimated with the global input-output model.However,the difference between CPI and PPI variations estimated with the global input-output model is greater than the result estimated with the single-country input-output model,which supports the view that the lengthening of production chains,especially international production chains,leads to a divergence between CPI and PPI.Empirical results based on cross-national panel data also suggest that the lengthening of production chains has reduced the CPI-PPI correlation for countries,i.e.the lengthening of production chains has increased the PPI-CPI divergence.That is to say,policymakers should target not just CPI in maintaining price stability,but instead focus on the stability of both PPI and CPI.Efforts can be made to proactively adjust the price index system,and formulate the industrial chain price index.

Spatial Interaction Between the Industrial Undertaking Capacity and Global Value Chain Position of East Asian Countries

A comprehensive understanding of the spatial interaction between the industrial undertaking capability and the position of the global value chain of the 12 East Asian countries is conducive to strengthening regional cooperation, gaining a say in foreign trade and becoming the dominant player in the global division of labor system. The article reveals the operating rules of the interaction between the industrial undertaking capacity and the global value chain position of East Asian countries by calculating the Global Moran Index(Moran’s I), coupling coordination degree and other indicators. The results show that: in time, the values of industrial undertaking capacity and the positions of global value chain in East Asian countries showed a sustained and stable growth trend, and have a consistent trend of change. Spatially, both of the two indexes had significant positive spatial correlation, with Moran’s I showing an ‘inverted U’pattern, and the spatial aggregation distribution of global value chain position lagged behind the spatial aggregation distribution of industrial undertaking capacity by one year. In terms of spatial coupling coordination, the coupling coordination values of the two indicators show a steady upward trend. Combined with the comparative advantage of each country, this paper provides suggestions for promoting the positions of Chinese and other East Asian industries in the global value chain from the perspectives of enhancing independent innovation capability and upgrading industrial structure.