Measuring Global Warming: Global and Hemisphere Mean Temperature Anomalies Predictions Using Sliced Functional Time Series (SFTS) Model

In this study, the sliced functional time series (SFTS) model is applied to the Global, Northern and Southern temperature anomalies. We obtained the combined land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature from Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA. The data are available for Global mean, Northern Hemisphere mean and Southern Hemisphere means (monthly, quarterly and annual) since 1880 to present (updated through March 2019). We analyze the global surface temperature change, compare alternative analyses, and address the questions about the reality of global warming. We detected the outliers during the last century not only in global temperature series but also in northern and southern hemisphere series. The forecasts for the next twenty years are obtained using SFTS models. These forecasts are compared with ARIMA, Random Walk with drift and Exponential Smoothing State Space (ETS) models. The comparison is made on the basis of root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the length of prediction intervals.

Future Changes in Extreme High Temperature over China at 1.5℃-5℃ Global Warming Based on CMIP6 Simulations

Extreme high temperature(EHT)events are among the most impact-related consequences related to climate change,especially for China,a nation with a large population that is vulnerable to the climate warming.Based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),this study assesses future EHT changes across China at five specific global warming thresholds(1.5℃-5℃).The results indicate that global mean temperature will increase by 1.5℃/2℃ before 2030/2050 relative to pre-industrial levels(1861-1900)under three future scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5),and warming will occur faster under SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5.Under SSP5-8.5,global warming will eventually exceed 5℃ by 2100,while under SSP1-2.6,it will stabilize around 2℃ after 2050.In China,most of the areas where warming exceeds global average levels will be located in Tibet and northern China(Northwest China,North China and Northeast China),covering 50%-70%of the country.Furthermore,about 0.19-0.44 billion people(accounting for 16%-41%of the national population)will experience warming above the global average.Compared to present-day(1995-2014),the warmest day(TXx)will increase most notably in northern China,while the number of warm days(TX90p)and warm spell duration indicator(WSDI)will increase most profoundly in southern China.For example,relative to the present-day,TXx will increase by 1℃-5℃ in northern China,and TX90p(WSDI)will increase by 25-150(10-80)days in southern China at 1.5℃-5℃ global warming.Compared to 2℃-5℃,limiting global warming to 1.5℃ will help avoid about 36%-87%of the EHT increases in China.

Zonal Mean Mode of Global Warming over the Past 50 Years

Zonal mean annual temperature trends were estimated using four reanalysis and three analysis grid datasets. The trends over land and for the entire globe were estimated from 1958-2001 and 1979-2007, respectively. Estimates of temperature trends over land from Climate Research Unit （CRU） analysis data indicate more intense wanning moving northward, at a rate of about 3.5℃ per century at 65°N, then declining further to the north. CRU estimates indicated dramatic warming over the latitudes of the Antarctic Peninsula, with a localized cooling trend at 45°S. A global estimate was conducted by comparing estimates of the reanalysis datasets. Temperature distribution trends of the reanalysis data were similar to those generated by land observations but with large bias in the Polar Regions. The bias could be reduced by comparing these estimates with those from the analysis data at high latitudes. Extreme warming trends were esti- mated at rates of 2.9℃-3.5℃ per century in the Arctic and 3.2℃-4.7℃ per century in the Antarctic for 1958-2001. Surface warming was even more intense in the Northern Hemisphere for 1979-2007, with extreme arctic warming rates ranging from 8.5℃-8.9℃ per century, as estimated by the analysis and reanalysis datasets. Trends over Antarctica for this period were contradictory, as Japan Meteorological Agency （JMA） reanalysis （JRA-25） indicated a cooling trend at about -7℃ per century, while other reanalysis datasets showed sharp warming over the continent.

Global Warming in Japanese Cities from 1960 to 2019 Using Machine Learning

In this study, we investigated the variations in warming between Japanese cities for 1960-1989, and 1990-2019 using principal component analysis (PCA) and k-means clustering. The precipitation and sunshine hours exhibited opposite tendencies in the PCA results. It was found that 1960M and 1990M had a correlation (r = 0.51). The 1960M and 1990M are the mean temperature anomalies in Japanese cities for 1960-1989 and 1990-2019, respectively. There was a strong correlation between temperature and precipitation (r = 0.62). There was an inverse correlation between 1960M and sunshine hours (r = −0.25), but a correlation between 1990M and sunshine hours (r = 0.11). Sunshine hours had less effect on the 1960M but more impact on the 1990M. The k-means clustering for 1960M and 1990M can be classified into four types: high 1960M and high 1990M, which indicates that global warming is progressing rapidly (Sapporo, Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, Fukuoka, Nagasaki), low 1960M and low 1990M, global warming is progressing slowly (Nemuro, Ishinomaki, Yamagata, Niigata, Fushiki, Nagano, Karuizawa, Mito, Suwa, Iida, Hamada, Miyazaki, Naha), low 1960M and high 1990M, global warming has accelerated since 1990 (Utsunomiya, Kofu, Okayama, Hiroshima), and normal 1960M and normal 1990M, the rate of warming is normal among the 38 cities (Asahikawa, Aomori, Akita, Kanazawa, Maebashi, Matsumoto, Yokohama, Gifu, Nagoya, Hamamatsu, Kochi, Kagoshima). Higher annual temperatures were correlated with higher annual precipitation according to the k-means clustering of temperature and precipitation. Two of the four categories consisted of places with high annual temperatures and high precipitation (Fushiki, Kanazawa, Kochi, Miyazaki, Kagoshima, Naha, Ishigakijima), and places with low annual temperatures and low precipitation (Asahikawa, Nemuro, Sapporo, Karuizawa).

Comparison of Global Mean Temperature Series

Studies on the reconstruction of global mean temperature series are reviewed by introducing three series, Had- CRUT3, NCDC, and GISS in details. Satellite data have been used since 1982 in NCDC and GISS series. NCDC series has the most complete spatial coverage among the three by using statistic interpolation technique. The weakened global warming in 2000-2009 as revealed in HadCRUT3 data is possibly caused by the lack of data coverage of this dataset over the Arctic. GISS and NCDC series showed much stronger warming trends during the last 10 years （-0.1 ℃ per 10 years）. Three series yielded almost the same warming trend for 1910-2009 （ 0.70-0.75 ℃ per 100 years）.

LOW FREQUENCY VARIABILITY OF INTERANNUAL CHANGE PATTERNS FOR GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE DURING THE RECENT 100 YEARS

The TEEOF method that expands temporally is used to conduct a diagnostic study of the variation patterns of 1, 3, 6 and 10 years with regard to mean air temperature over the globe and Southern and Northern Hemispheres over the course of 100 years. The results show that the first mode of TEEOF takes up more than 50% in the total variance, with each of the first mode in the interannual oscillations generally standing for annually varying patterns which are related with climate and reflecting long-term tendency of change in air temperature. It is particularly true for the first mode on the 10-year scale, which shows an obvious ascending trend concerning the temperature in winter and consistently the primary component of time goes in a way that is very close to the sequence of actual temperature. Apart from the first mode of all time sections of TEEOF for the globe and the two hemispheres and the second mode of the 1-year TEEOF, interannual variation described by other characteristic vectors are showing various patterns, with corresponding primary components having relation with long-term variability of specific interannual quasi-periodic oscillation structures. A 2T test applied to the annual variation pattern shows that the abrupt changes for the Southern Hemisphere and the globe come closer to the result of a uni-element t test for mean temperature than those for the Northern Hemisphere do. It indicates that the 2Ttest, when carried out with patterns of multiple variables, seems more reasonable than the t test with single elements.

The Analysis of Global Warming Patterns from 1970s to 2010s

While global warming is only one part of climate change effects, it poses the highest risk to our habitats and ecologies. It is alarming that global warming has heightened in multiple locations and is intensified since the early 1970s. Since then, there are certain global warming patterns that could guide us with an overview of what mitigation and adaptation strategies should be developed in the future decades. There are certain regions affected more than another, and there are certain patterns with adverse effects on regions, sub-regions, and even continents. This study provides an insightful analysis of recent global warming patterns, those that are affecting us the most with regional climate change of different types, upsurge in frequency and intensity of natural disasters, and drastic impacts on our ecosystems around the world. By analysing the global warming patterns of these last four decades, this research study sheds light on where these patterns are coming from, how they are developing, and what are their impacts. This study is conducted through grey literature and analysis of the recorded global warming data publicly available by the NASA-GISS data centre for global temperature. This brief—but comprehensive—analysis helps us to have a better understanding of what comes next for global warming impacts, and how we should ultimately react. The study contributes to the field by discovering three key points analysed based on available data and literature on recorded global temperature, including: differences between north and south hemispheres, specific patterns due to ocean surface temperature increase, and recent impacts on particular regions. The study concludes with the importance of global scale analysis to have a more realistic understanding of the global warming patterns and their impacts on all living habitats.

Temperature Trends on Gran Canaria (Canary Islands). An Example of Global Warming over the Subtropical Northeastern Atlantic

The variation in temperature on the island of Gran Canaria is studied using the method applied to the nearby island of Tenerife [1]. An upward warming trend of 0.09°C ± 0.05°C (α = 0.01) was seen from 1946 to date, which has accelerated since the seventies to 0.17°C ± 0.10°C (α = 0.01). The increase was higher at night (0.11°C ± 0.05°C) than by day (0.08°C ± 0.06°C), so the temperature range decreased slightly. These values are similar to those of Tenerife and the time series of anomalies for the two islands are highly correlated. On the coast the same relationship to the sea surface temperature was found as in Tenerife, but in the mid-altitude areas to windward, some differences were detected that are hypothetically attributable to the different relief of the two islands.

Applicability of Bevis Formula at Different Height Levels and Global Weighted Mean Temperature Model Based on Near-earth Atmospheric Temperature

Weighted mean temperature(T m)is a critical parameter in Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)technology to retrieve precipitable water vapor(PWV).It is convenient to obtain high-precision T m estimates near surface utilizing Bevis formula and surface temperature.However,some researches pointed out that the Bevis formula has large uncertainties in high-altitude regions.We investigate the applicability of the Bevis formula at different height levels and find that the Bevis formula has relatively high precision when the altitude is low,while with altitude increasing,the precision decreases gradually.To solve the problem,we analyze the relationship between T m and atmospheric temperature within the near-earth space range(the height range between 0~10 km)and find that they have a high correlation on a global scale.Accordingly,we build a global weighted mean temperature model based on near-earth atmospheric temperature.Validation results of the model show that this model can provide high-precision T m estimation at any height level in the near-earth space range.

Impacts of Global Warming Perturbation on Water Resources in Arid Zone: Case Study of Kaidu River Basin in Northwest China

The main goal of this study was to assess the long-term impacts of global warming perturbation on water resources of the Kaidu River Basin in Northwest China. Temperature, precipitation and hydrology data during the past 29 years from 1979 to 2007 were collected and analyzed using parametric and non-parametric methods, the connection between temperature and precipitation by the combination of grey correlation analysis method and the hypothesis testing for trend of climate change. The results show a high increase in temperature in the study area as well as an extreme and highly variable hydrological regime in this region, where flash floods can exceed the total runoff from a sequence of years. These variations may be due to the geographical location of the Kaidu River Basin in arid zone. It also reveals that precipitation has a much greater impact on stream flow than that of temperature. The development of new approaches was proposed as responses to climate change in this arid region.

Potential effects of subduction rate in the key ocean on global warming hiatus

In this study, the possible effects of subduction rate on global warming hiatus were investigated using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation（SODA） data. This study first analyzed the characteristics of the temporal and spatial distribution of global subduction rate, which revealed that the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation region and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region are the two main sea areas with great subduction variations.On this basis, four key areas were selected to explore the relationship between the local subduction rate and the global mean sea surface temperature. In addition, the reason for the variations in subduction rate was preliminarily explored. The results show good correspondence of the subduction of the key areas in the North Atlantic meridional overturning the circulation region and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region to the global warming hiatus, with the former leading by about 10 years. The subduction process may be a physical mechanism by which the North Atlantic overturning circulation and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current act on the stagnation of global warming. Advection effect plays an important role in the variations in subduction in the key regions. In the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region, the magnitude of sea surface wind stress is closely related to the local changes in subduction.

Evolution of Surface Sensible Heat over the Tibetan Plateau Under the Recent Global Warming Hiatus

Based on regular surface meteorological observations and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, this study investigates the evolution of surface sensible heat（SH） over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau（CE-TP） under the recent global warming hiatus. The results reveal that the SH over the CE-TP presents a recovery since the slowdown of the global warming. The restored surface wind speed together with increased difference in ground-air temperature contribute to the recovery in SH.During the global warming hiatus, the persistent weakening wind speed is alleviated due to the variation of the meridional temperature gradient. Meanwhile, the ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature show a significant increasing trend in that period caused by the increased total cloud amount, especially at night. At nighttime, the increased total cloud cover reduces the surface effective radiation via a strengthening of atmospheric counter radiation and subsequently brings about a clear upward trend in ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature.Cloud–radiation feedback plays a significant role in the evolution of the surface temperature and even SH during the global warming hiatus. Consequently, besides the surface wind speed, the difference in ground-air temperature becomes another significant factor for the variation in SH since the slowdown of global warming, particularly at night.

Changes in Global Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Fluxes in Response to Global Warming:Simulated Results from IAP-DGVM in CAS-ESM2

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important part of Earth systems,and they are undergoing remarkable changes in response to global warming.This study investigates the response of the terrestrial vegetation distribution and carbon fluxes to global warming by using the new dynamic global vegetation model in the second version of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Earth System Model(CAS-ESM2).We conducted two sets of simulations,a present-day simulation and a future simulation,which were forced by the present-day climate during 1981-2000 and the future climate during 2081-2100,respectively,as derived from RCP8.5 outputs in CMIP5.CO_(2)concentration is kept constant in all simulations to isolate CO_(2)-fertilization effects.The results show an overall increase in vegetation coverage in response to global warming,which is the net result of the greening in the mid-high latitudes and the browning in the tropics.The results also show an enhancement in carbon fluxes in response to global warming,including gross primary productivity,net primary productivity,and autotrophic respiration.We found that the changes in vegetation coverage were significantly correlated with changes in surface air temperature,reflecting the dominant role of temperature,while the changes in carbon fluxes were caused by the combined effects of leaf area index,temperature,and precipitation.This study applies the CAS-ESM2 to investigate the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming.Even though the interpretation of the results is limited by isolating CO_(2)-fertilization effects,this application is still beneficial for adding to our understanding of vegetation processes and to further improve upon model parameterizations.

Changes in Mixed Layer Depth and Spring Bloom in the Kuroshio Extension under Global Warming

The mixed layer is deep in January-April in the Kuroshio Extension region. This paper investigates the response in this region of mixed layer depth （MLD） and the spring bloom initiation to global warming using the output of 15 models from CMIP5. The models indicate that in the late 21st century the mixed layer will shoal and the MLD reduction will be most pronounced in spring at about 33~N on the southern edge of the present deep-MLD region. The advection of temperature change in the upper 100 m by the mean eastward flow explains the spatial pattern of MLD shoaling in the models. Associated with the shoaling mixed layer, the onset of spring bloom inception is projected to advance due to the strengthened stratification in the warming climate.

Distribution Pattern of Vascular Plant Species of Mountains in Nepal and their Fate Against Global Warming

This study aims to find the altitudinal distribution pattern of vascular plant species reported from high mountain of Nepal(Manang) along the whole Himalayan elevation gradient, and evaluate their fate against climate change. Data was gathered from multiple sources, field investigations, literatures, and herbarium specimens. Altogether, 303 vascular plant species were reported from Manang. We used a published data to calculate distribution range of each species by interpolating between its upper and lower elevation limits. The relationship between elevation and species richness is elucidated by generalized linear model. The consequence of global warming upon Manang's vascular plant species was estimated based on projected temperature change for next century and adiabatic lapse rate along the elevation gradient of the Himalayas. The vascular plant species richness has a unimodel relationship with elevation along the whole elevation gradient of Nepal as well as in three biogeographical regions of Nepal. Vascular plants of Manang are found distributed from low land Terai to high alpine regions of Nepal and their elevation distribution range varies from 200 to 4700 m. Out of 303 vascular plants of Manang, only seven species might be affected if temperature increase by 1.5°C, whereas at least 70 species will be affected with 5°C temperature increased. However, the majority of species(233 species) have wider distribution range(> 1000 m) and more than 5°C temperature tolerance range, thus they are likely to be less affected from global warming by the end of 21 st century.

El Niño and the AMO Sparked the Astonishingly Large Margin of Warming in the Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2023

In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society.We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history.Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming threshold.Compared to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño.Moreover,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise.As a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.

An Improved Open-Top Chamber with Solar-Heated Double Funnels That Can Adapt to All Wind Directions for Simulating Future Global Warming Conditions in Rice Paddy Fields

An Open-Top Chamber with Solar-heated Double Funnels (OTC-SDF2) that uses solar energy as a heating source was developed in this study. Two air entry/exit funnels were connected to the OTC via flat tunnels through which air was warmed by solar radiation. The new apparatus increased the air temperature by approximately 1°C throughout the chamber when more than half the energy of full sunlight was supplied. Although air flow occurs in only two directions, a nearly constant temperature increase was observed for each wind direction. This increase in temperature was stable for 1 mˉs to 4 mˉs wind speeds in every direction. This degree of warming may be adequate for screening high-temperature tolerant plants from medium to weak cultivars. The OTC-SDF2 has the potential to provide moderately high-temperature treatments for screening various cultivars/strains and may be used to evaluate easy, low-cost cropping methods associated with high-temperature stresses.

The Climate Change in Qingdao during 1899-2015 and Its Response to Global Warming

In this work, the average mean (TAvg), maximum (TMax), and minimum temperature (TMin) and precipitation records of Qingdao from 1899 to 2015 are analyzed. The TAvg, TMax and TMin all go through several warm and cold periods, and exhibit statistically significant linear warming trend especially in spring and winter, as a response to global warming. Besides, the TAvg reflects more the TMin evolution for the most part, either as a trend or an abrupt change, and the contribution of TMin to Tavg is far greater than that of TMax. The abrupt change year of climate is also around 1979 in Qingdao, and it is 2 or 3-years later than the TAvg for the TMin, while there is no abrupt change of TMax. In terms of the precipitation in Qingdao, it varies periodically and dramatically with a slow increasing trend. As for the seasonal precipitation, the precipitation varies widely year by year for the four seasons but with no obvious variation trend except for spring.

Impact of Global Warming on Indian Ocean

The sea level has increased abruptly in the Indian Ocean in the last four decades.Data shows that the increase in sea level is not homogeneous.The rise in bay of Bengal is more than that of the Arabian Sea. Global warming has caused an increase in sea surface temperature.The sea surface temperature has a direct impact on the sea level rise as well as on the intensity and frequency of storms and cyclones.This

Global Warming was not Proved at Showa Base in Antarctica

The changes in temperatures at Showa base in Antarctica were evaluated. Various parameters of temperatures at Showa base in Antarctica were obtained from Japan Metrological Agency. Parameters of temperatures were not correlated with years at Showa base (mean temperature in a year: r = 0.056, p = 0.7267). In addition, the number of days over 4?C was negatively correlated with years. Global warming was not proved at Showa base in Antarctica in this study.