A grain surplus and the grain trade are closely related to the urbanization of developing countries. However, existing literature has not given adequate attention to this issue. Our paper develops a theoretical model ...A grain surplus and the grain trade are closely related to the urbanization of developing countries. However, existing literature has not given adequate attention to this issue. Our paper develops a theoretical model to explain the mechanisms whereby changes in the grain surplus constrain the level of urbanization in a closed economy context and the grain trade affects the level of urbanization by acting on the grain surplus in an open economy context. A test of the theoretical model applied to some developing countries in Asia during the period 1993-2010 shows that international trade is generally negatively correlated with level of urbanization. However, cereal and non-cereal trade vary in terms of their relation to urbanization： whereas the former is positively correlated with level of urbanization, thelatter is negatively correlated with it. Since the net import of cereals relaxes the constraint imposed on the level of urbanization by the domestic grain surplus, it can have a marked positive effect on the course of urbanization. Our research findings show that provided grain production or grain security is guaranteed, developing countries may adopt a policy of importing an appropriate amount of grain to increase their level of urbanization.展开更多
基金supported by the NNSFC(71133004 and 71273057)the NSSFC Key Program(11&ZD003)+4 种基金support of the "One Hundred Talents" Program of YunnanProvincethe Dawn Program of Shanghai Education CommissionFudan University's China Center for Economic Studies under the Shanghai University Think Tankthe MOC "Innovative University Research Team" Programthe "Shanghai Higher Education Innovation Promotion Plan"
文摘A grain surplus and the grain trade are closely related to the urbanization of developing countries. However, existing literature has not given adequate attention to this issue. Our paper develops a theoretical model to explain the mechanisms whereby changes in the grain surplus constrain the level of urbanization in a closed economy context and the grain trade affects the level of urbanization by acting on the grain surplus in an open economy context. A test of the theoretical model applied to some developing countries in Asia during the period 1993-2010 shows that international trade is generally negatively correlated with level of urbanization. However, cereal and non-cereal trade vary in terms of their relation to urbanization： whereas the former is positively correlated with level of urbanization, thelatter is negatively correlated with it. Since the net import of cereals relaxes the constraint imposed on the level of urbanization by the domestic grain surplus, it can have a marked positive effect on the course of urbanization. Our research findings show that provided grain production or grain security is guaranteed, developing countries may adopt a policy of importing an appropriate amount of grain to increase their level of urbanization.
