The gray renewal GM (1,1) landslide prediction model was established by improving the gray model. Based on the established model, the author has made prediction of landslide deformation to the Xiangjiapo landslide and...The gray renewal GM (1,1) landslide prediction model was established by improving the gray model. Based on the established model, the author has made prediction of landslide deformation to the Xiangjiapo landslide and the Lianziya dangerous rock body. The results show that the gray renewal GM (1,1) model can supplement the new information in time and remove the old information which reduces the meaning of the information because of time lapse. Therefore, the model is closer to reality.展开更多
For the classical GM(1,1)model,the prediction accuracy is not high,and the optimization of the initial and background values is one-sided.In this paper,the Lagrange mean value theorem is used to construct the backgrou...For the classical GM(1,1)model,the prediction accuracy is not high,and the optimization of the initial and background values is one-sided.In this paper,the Lagrange mean value theorem is used to construct the background value as a variable related to k.At the same time,the initial value is set as a variable,and the corresponding optimal parameter and the time response formula are determined according to the minimum value of mean relative error(MRE).Combined with the domestic natural gas annual consumption data,the classical model and the improved GM(1,1)model are applied to the calculation and error comparison respectively.It proves that the improved model is better than any other models.展开更多
Grey system theory has been widely applied to many domains such as economy, agriculture, management, Social Sciences and so on. Based on the theory of grey system, this paper established GM（1,1） grey predict model f...Grey system theory has been widely applied to many domains such as economy, agriculture, management, Social Sciences and so on. Based on the theory of grey system, this paper established GM（1,1） grey predict model for the first time to forecast The number of Scitech novelty search item and The staff number of Sci-Tech Novelty Search. The predicting results are almost close to the actual values, which shows that the model is reliable so that the models could be used to forecast the two factors in the future years. The study will help the scientific management of Sci-Tech Novelty search work for Novelty search organizations.展开更多
文摘The gray renewal GM (1,1) landslide prediction model was established by improving the gray model. Based on the established model, the author has made prediction of landslide deformation to the Xiangjiapo landslide and the Lianziya dangerous rock body. The results show that the gray renewal GM (1,1) model can supplement the new information in time and remove the old information which reduces the meaning of the information because of time lapse. Therefore, the model is closer to reality.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71871106)the Blue and Green Project in Jiangsu Provincethe Six Talent Peaks Project in Jiangsu Province (2016-JY-011)
文摘For the classical GM(1,1)model,the prediction accuracy is not high,and the optimization of the initial and background values is one-sided.In this paper,the Lagrange mean value theorem is used to construct the background value as a variable related to k.At the same time,the initial value is set as a variable,and the corresponding optimal parameter and the time response formula are determined according to the minimum value of mean relative error(MRE).Combined with the domestic natural gas annual consumption data,the classical model and the improved GM(1,1)model are applied to the calculation and error comparison respectively.It proves that the improved model is better than any other models.
文摘Grey system theory has been widely applied to many domains such as economy, agriculture, management, Social Sciences and so on. Based on the theory of grey system, this paper established GM（1,1） grey predict model for the first time to forecast The number of Scitech novelty search item and The staff number of Sci-Tech Novelty Search. The predicting results are almost close to the actual values, which shows that the model is reliable so that the models could be used to forecast the two factors in the future years. The study will help the scientific management of Sci-Tech Novelty search work for Novelty search organizations.
