[目的]探索环境变量与经济的相互影响关系,研究绿色GDP(GGDP)和GDP的趋势关系并预测未来趋势变化,分析GGDP替代GDP作为政策指标的可行性,为推进区域可持续发展提供科学指导。[方法]基于联合国综合环境与经济核算体系(system of integrat...[目的]探索环境变量与经济的相互影响关系,研究绿色GDP(GGDP)和GDP的趋势关系并预测未来趋势变化,分析GGDP替代GDP作为政策指标的可行性,为推进区域可持续发展提供科学指导。[方法]基于联合国综合环境与经济核算体系(system of integrated environmental and economic accounting,SEEA),采用相关性分析方法,根据经济结构、发展水平和政策制度的不同选取了6个具有代表性国家的环境因素,与GDP进行了相关性分析,并使用一元线性回归方程对各国的GDP与GGDP进行拟合分析;利用ARIMA,Holt-Winters和灰度GM(1,1)模型对GGDP和GDP数据进行预测分析。通过模型误差对比分析最优预测结果。[结果]在经济发展的前期,GDP与GGDP、环境呈现负相关。随着可持续发展的经济结构完善,负相关逐步趋于缓和,最终实现回暖,呈现U形趋势。预测分析结果得出ARIMA模型最适合预测GDP,Holt-Winters模型最适合预测GGDP,且两者均呈现增长趋势,但GGDP增速不及GDP增速。[结论]结合中国实际情况,建议中国经济核算指标从GDP转向GGDP,且应加大环境经济投入,有助于实现经济、社会和环境的可持续发展,建设资源节约型和环境友好型的可持续发展社会。展开更多
The economic losses caused by water pollution,air pollution and noise pollution in the Yellow River Delta are estimated,and the green GDP is calculated. The results show that water pollution caused economic losses of ...The economic losses caused by water pollution,air pollution and noise pollution in the Yellow River Delta are estimated,and the green GDP is calculated. The results show that water pollution caused economic losses of about 541. 5814 million yuan in the Yellow River Delta in 2010; particulate matter caused health risk economic losses of 163. 1369 million yuan,and excess mortality economic losses of33. 4742 million yuan; noise pollution caused economic losses of 594. 2768 million yuan. The total losses reach approximately 2705. 198 million yuan,accounting for 0. 97% of the total GDP. After subtracting the total losses from the total regional GDP( 541. 58 billion yuan),the revised green GDP is about 536. 3127 billion yuan. Obviously,environmental pollution has a certain impact on the economic growth.The coordinated development of environment and economy can be achieved by adjusting the industrial structure,developing circular economy and so on.展开更多
The author shows different opinion on the focal topic of “Green GDP” and considers that it is incorrect and unrealistic to worship EDP so much.Currently we should start from some foundational work of environmental a...The author shows different opinion on the focal topic of “Green GDP” and considers that it is incorrect and unrealistic to worship EDP so much.Currently we should start from some foundational work of environmental accounts.展开更多
文摘[目的]探索环境变量与经济的相互影响关系,研究绿色GDP(GGDP)和GDP的趋势关系并预测未来趋势变化,分析GGDP替代GDP作为政策指标的可行性,为推进区域可持续发展提供科学指导。[方法]基于联合国综合环境与经济核算体系(system of integrated environmental and economic accounting,SEEA),采用相关性分析方法,根据经济结构、发展水平和政策制度的不同选取了6个具有代表性国家的环境因素,与GDP进行了相关性分析,并使用一元线性回归方程对各国的GDP与GGDP进行拟合分析;利用ARIMA,Holt-Winters和灰度GM(1,1)模型对GGDP和GDP数据进行预测分析。通过模型误差对比分析最优预测结果。[结果]在经济发展的前期,GDP与GGDP、环境呈现负相关。随着可持续发展的经济结构完善,负相关逐步趋于缓和,最终实现回暖,呈现U形趋势。预测分析结果得出ARIMA模型最适合预测GDP,Holt-Winters模型最适合预测GGDP,且两者均呈现增长趋势,但GGDP增速不及GDP增速。[结论]结合中国实际情况,建议中国经济核算指标从GDP转向GGDP,且应加大环境经济投入,有助于实现经济、社会和环境的可持续发展,建设资源节约型和环境友好型的可持续发展社会。
基金Supported by Binzhou Soft Science Research Project(2014RKX10)Binzhou Science and Technology Development Plan Project(2013ZC1606)
文摘The economic losses caused by water pollution,air pollution and noise pollution in the Yellow River Delta are estimated,and the green GDP is calculated. The results show that water pollution caused economic losses of about 541. 5814 million yuan in the Yellow River Delta in 2010; particulate matter caused health risk economic losses of 163. 1369 million yuan,and excess mortality economic losses of33. 4742 million yuan; noise pollution caused economic losses of 594. 2768 million yuan. The total losses reach approximately 2705. 198 million yuan,accounting for 0. 97% of the total GDP. After subtracting the total losses from the total regional GDP( 541. 58 billion yuan),the revised green GDP is about 536. 3127 billion yuan. Obviously,environmental pollution has a certain impact on the economic growth.The coordinated development of environment and economy can be achieved by adjusting the industrial structure,developing circular economy and so on.
文摘The author shows different opinion on the focal topic of “Green GDP” and considers that it is incorrect and unrealistic to worship EDP so much.Currently we should start from some foundational work of environmental accounts.
